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Who is benching Tom Brady at Denver?? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter andyk803
- Start date
andyk803
Footballguy
But isn't that with Peyton? So the Pats had to put up points.....My Titans only needed 88yards from Mariota and pretty much dominated Lol
Peak
Footballguy
What happened in 2012-2013? Injury? I know he missed some time, but don't recall when/why.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE doesn't play Denver every year and they don't always play in Denver when they do play.
Moonshine
Footballguy
2012 they played in Foxborough, to the tune of 23-31 for 223 and 1 TD (4 sacks)
2013 they also played in Foxborough, to the tune of 34-50 for 344 yards and 3 TDs.
My expectation is his stat line, at best, will be closer to the 2012. I don't think they'll need to drop a ton of offense to beat a weak Denver offensive team.
Zow
Footballguy
Fbg has him way too low. I have dak, Winston, and Mariota as backup options and I can't fathom starting any of them over Brady.
Plausibly, I could see a argument for cousins or flacco but otherwise no way. Rodgers, brees, Wilson, cousins and maybe cam and luck are the only guys I'd probably rank ahead of Brady this week.
Plausibly, I could see a argument for cousins or flacco but otherwise no way. Rodgers, brees, Wilson, cousins and maybe cam and luck are the only guys I'd probably rank ahead of Brady this week.
Peak
Footballguy
Sorry. Brain fart. Need to stop thinking about work and get to more important things like football schedules and FF Playoffs!
Thanks!
Zow
Footballguy
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
It is going to be really cold just FYI . The low Saturday here (we are 75 miles south) is -1. It will warm up a little Sunday into the 20s.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I have Kaepernick but am giving myself agita even thinking of starting him over Brady. Still though, I am considering it.
ETA: Palmer and Flacco are both on WW right now also. Just looking at Dodds early projections, he has him at QB 21. Vomit.
ETA: Palmer and Flacco are both on WW right now also. Just looking at Dodds early projections, he has him at QB 21. Vomit.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
In 49 career games under 40 degrees, Brady has completed 62.3% of his passes with 253 yards, 2 TD, and 0.6 INT per game for a 95.1 QB rating.
For me I don't care much based on if game is in Denver or NE but I'll go with this. Really don't factor what happened in 2011 much but he also had Gronk/Hernandez duo in that game and Hernandez was huge in that game.
In the 2016 and 2015 games you referenced he had Gronk and Gronk was fairly impactful in both going for 144 and a TD in one game and 88 and a TD in the other. So Gronk accounted for 39% of yards and 50% of passing TD's in those two games. The 2011 game Hernandez and Gronk accounted for more than 50% of the production.
2014 is a little older than I"d normally go back and reference for a key matchup but most of the key parts are intact and that is the one game of the 4 he did not have Gronk. That was also easily his worst passing output of the day and that season the Denver pass defense was giving up about 40 yards more per game then they are this season.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The home team in the NE and DEN games has usually won. NE averaged 38 points the 4 times they played Denver at home since 2012. In the last 3 games in Denver, the Pats averaged 19 ppg (So half as much).
I've always considered Brady one of best cold weather QB's I've seen but don't have stats to back this up but just my opinion watching football over the years it seems to me that some QB's that early in their careers were good cold weather QB's started faltering more in cold weather as they got older. Seemed that way with Favre, to me anyway, again not going off stats and seems that way a little to me with Brady last few years but that stuff is hard to get good information on, like major difference between just cold and cold/windy or cold/precipitation.
I was just scouring the internet a few hours ago trying to find simple stats for cold weather(not for Brady, for Mariotta) but 30 degrees is not the same thing as 8 degrees so cold is relative term and other factors I mentioned earlier were not broke out, like wind, so I got zero useful info out of my search.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Probably benching him for Kaep... Talk me out of it shark pool.
shadyridr
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
You know for sure Kaep wont be benched in his game? That team has given up. Lets be real here.No, that's why I want to bench Brady at Denver
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Yeah that's the risk with Kaep. I guess I have a better team than my opponent, should go with the higher floor Brady.
Josh the FunkDOC
Footballguy
benching him but only because i have Ryan and he's shown he can still do great even in blowout wins
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
LOL
bench Brady .... would you bench DJohnson against the #1 run DEF? would you bench Antonio Brown against the #1 pass defense ?
bench Brady .... would you bench DJohnson against the #1 run DEF? would you bench Antonio Brown against the #1 pass defense ?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
Moonshine
Footballguy
No on DJ because he is heavily in passing game so is matchup proof.
As for Brown if I was in a single start WR league, like most QB leagues, yes I'd consider going with my WR2 over him. If I was in a single start WR league and Brown was missing his QB(not as severe as Brady missing Gronk but a factor) then the odds increase heavily I would sit Brown.
Moonshine
Footballguy
Two different situations, if you ask me.
I agree with your point, that I wouldn't bench DJ, even against the #1 defense. His match-up against the #1 defense would likely cause me to project him as my second or third (or possibly fourth, depending on match-ups) best RB/WR/TE for that week, depending on my roster, which still means he's still, even on his absolute worst week match-up wise, flex worthy.
In a start QB1 league, the #1 QB overall playing the #1 defense similarly may cause me to project that QB as my second or third best option available to me that week, meaning he wouldn't start because I've only got one QB spot to fill.
Your assertion that a stud skill position player should be treated the same as a stud QB is incorrect, in my opinion, generally because of roster make-up and number of startable players allowed at each position.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Only QBs I'd start over Brady this week:
Rodgers
Ryan
Cousins
Other than that I think Brady's floor is a lot higher than anyone else's floor out there, and his ceiling is just as high considering his matchup. If not higher. Last week was supposed to be a tough matchup too, he did just fine.
Rodgers
Ryan
Cousins
Other than that I think Brady's floor is a lot higher than anyone else's floor out there, and his ceiling is just as high considering his matchup. If not higher. Last week was supposed to be a tough matchup too, he did just fine.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Id say Rodgers, Cousins, Ryan, Rivers, Carr, Prescott definitely
I wouldnt start Brees, Luck, or Mariota over him because they have tough matchups too.
I wouldnt start Winston, Wilson or Cam over him because they are too hit or miss although its a coinflip.
Palmer, Dalton, Flacco, Seimian would be huge gambles that could pay off as they have great matchups but I would never bench Brady for them
Roethlisberger who sucks on the road and Kap who can be benched at anytime I would never do
Interseptopus
Footballguy
FWIW:
Week 8 @ Buffalo, ranked 7th best passing D in yardage: 315/4/0
Week 10 vs SEA ranked 9th: 316/0/1
Week 14 vs BAL ranked 11th: 406/3/1
IMO the yardage will be there, it's just a matter of scoring. And Denver's given up close to or over 20 points per game 4 of the last 6 games.
I'll take my chances with Brady. He's had only 2 stinkers for me all season.
Week 8 @ Buffalo, ranked 7th best passing D in yardage: 315/4/0
Week 10 vs SEA ranked 9th: 316/0/1
Week 14 vs BAL ranked 11th: 406/3/1
IMO the yardage will be there, it's just a matter of scoring. And Denver's given up close to or over 20 points per game 4 of the last 6 games.
I'll take my chances with Brady. He's had only 2 stinkers for me all season.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Im the opposite. The yardage wont be there because Denver is typically beaten on the ground and they dont have the offense to get into a high scoring game. However, TDs are flukey and there is no reason he cant throw for 3 one yard TDs.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
crazy !!
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Not entirely...
In most leagues you start 1 QB. So your QB2 could be quite good
If we started 1 WR on our teams, and my WR1 was Antonio Brown, there is a good chance my WR2 was pretty good, but on my bench. So yes, in that case I would consider benching Brown. In most leagues, however, we start 2-3 WR (maybe one at flex). So your WR4 is likely not better than Brown. Same with RBs...
flipcuplegend
Footballguy
The only game from the below matchups is 2014 which is a worthwhile comparison with NO GRONK and a similar defense.
2016 310/1/2 with 13 rushing yards
2015 280/3/0 with 18 rushing yards
2014 277/1/0 with 7 rushing yards and a rushing TD
2011 320/2/0 with 2 rushing yards and a rushing TD
So you're looking at 12 points give or take. The options most have on waivers in a single QB league are:
Flacco vs Philly, Tyrod vs Cleveland, Alex Smith vs Tenn.
For myself, Alex Smith seems like the safer play over Tom Brady given the matchup??
2016 310/1/2 with 13 rushing yards
2015 280/3/0 with 18 rushing yards
2014 277/1/0 with 7 rushing yards and a rushing TD
2011 320/2/0 with 2 rushing yards and a rushing TD
So you're looking at 12 points give or take. The options most have on waivers in a single QB league are:
Flacco vs Philly, Tyrod vs Cleveland, Alex Smith vs Tenn.
For myself, Alex Smith seems like the safer play over Tom Brady given the matchup??
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