What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Patterns in elections (1 Viewer)

timschochet

Footballguy
This is the political theory that, in modern American history, all Presidencies last 8 years, at which point the other party's candidate is elected, and the outcome shouldn't, in the final analysis, be that suspenseful. 

Since 1952, this theory has held up consistently with only 2 exceptions: 1980, in which Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter, ending a 4 year Presidency, and 1988, when George H W Bush defeated Michael Dukakis, extending Republican rule of the White House to 12 years. 

It could be argued that both of those exceptions featured very unusual circumstances: Reagan was an extremely charismatic candidate of the sort that comes along only once every few decades (FDR, JFK, Reagan, Obama- you can count them on the fingers of one hand.) Conversely, Michael Dukakis was an extremely UNCHARiSMATIC candidate that almost never wins the nomination in an "8 year" election- usually these sorts of dull candidates get the nomination after the first 4 years of the incumbent's term, when they are set up to be sacrificed; McGovern, Dole, Kerry, etc. 

Based on this theory it is extremely unlikely that Donald Trump will not be re-elected. On the other hand, a lot of people believe that Trump's election proved that we are in a new era and none of these sorts of patterns hold water anymore. Which is it? 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Did you know that the Raiders had a tackle named Lincoln Kennedy? 
Did you hear Rod Stewart had his stomach pumped?

Sorry back to the subject. Carter had the deck stacked against him rightfully or wrongly and Dukakis might have been the worst candidate in the last 100 years

 
I don't think the theory holds up.  Two of the past three times have been pretty suspenseful.  In 2000, Gore won the popular vote, and it came down to a Supreme Court decision and 537 votes in Florida.  And Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by about 3 million votes and it came down to a total of less than 100k votes in three states.

ETA: I should have said 2 of 3 times after 8 years of one President.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The theory that it takes 8 years to edit Mr. Ishida's Bookstore. Conversely, the length of time that elapsed while reading the first chapter.

 
The theory that it takes 8 years to edit Mr. Ishida's Bookstore. Conversely, the length of time that elapsed while reading the first chapter.
I'm just touched that people continue to remember the title. (Note- when I use the word "touched", it's not in the Sandusky way.)

 
Are we making up political theories now?
No, I've heard about it in several places.

But in truth, your criticism of the previous thread I started, which was certainly partisan, got me to thinking that if this is truly going to be a politics subforum we should have at least some discussions around here of a non-partisan nature- by that I mean discussions about how our system works without everybody automatically taking predictable sides.

You can't deny that, even if you see flaws in the theory, (or, as DaVinci points out, it's too small a sample) that it's at least pretty clear that after 8 years of one President, there seems to be a strong desire for change. I think it's also pretty clear that after 4 years of a President, there's a general feeling that he hasn't had enough time to accomplish his goals. Would you agree that both of these feelings have been prevalent and have influenced our elections?

 
This is such a huge sample size that I think we can confidently proclaim this to be an iron law of politics, not mere coincidence. 

 
One of my middle school history teachers felt the same way. 

He always said that if a president was elected to a second term the country would then choose the other party for another 8 years. 

I know the 2000 & 2016 elections are sketchy, but he's right. If we go 8 years of republican, then we'll go 8 years of democrat. And so on and so forth. 

I think Trump will do all 8 years. Then hopefully the dems will have found a good  person to run with minimal baggage. 

 
I think Trump is such a divisive president that past elections can not be used to extrapolate what will happen if he runs for reelection. 

 
 I guess there's no reason to vote then. Although Hillary and the media are spending a lot of energy to prove your theory wrong. 

 
Past trends do not equal future results.  Besides, over a pathetically small sample it is easy to find a pattern.  It is even easier to find a pattern when you allow for a couple of exceptions.  Trump is a terrible candidate and he only won by a fluke and the fact he ran against a hideous candidate.  This so-called theory is trash.  

 
In other news, ctsu had successfully predicted the winner of the presidency every time since he was a youngin.

 
This is the political theory that, in modern American history, all Presidencies last 8 years, at which point the other party's candidate is elected, and the outcome shouldn't, in the final analysis, be that suspenseful. 

Since 1952, this theory has held up consistently with only 2 exceptions: 1980, in which Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter, ending a 4 year Presidency, and 1988, when George H W Bush defeated Michael Dukakis, extending Republican rule of the White House to 12 years. 

It could be argued that both of those exceptions featured very unusual circumstances: Reagan was an extremely charismatic candidate of the sort that comes along only once every few decades (FDR, JFK, Reagan, Obama- you can count them on the fingers of one hand.) Conversely, Michael Dukakis was an extremely UNCHARiSMATIC candidate that almost never wins the nomination in an "8 year" election- usually these sorts of dull candidates get the nomination after the first 4 years of the incumbent's term, when they are set up to be sacrificed; McGovern, Dole, Kerry, etc. 

Based on this theory it is extremely unlikely that Donald Trump will not be re-elected. On the other hand, a lot of people believe that Trump's election proved that we are in a new era and none of these sorts of patterns hold water anymore. Which is it? 
If Trump gets re-elected, this country is more screwed than I feared.  He's got to be the most polarizing, unpopular president ever.  Opposition turn out will be record-breaking (despite GOP efforts to suppress voting).

 
No, I've heard about it in several places.

But in truth, your criticism of the previous thread I started, which was certainly partisan, got me to thinking that if this is truly going to be a politics subforum we should have at least some discussions around here of a non-partisan nature- by that I mean discussions about how our system works without everybody automatically taking predictable sides.

You can't deny that, even if you see flaws in the theory, (or, as DaVinci points out, it's too small a sample) that it's at least pretty clear that after 8 years of one President, there seems to be a strong desire for change. I think it's also pretty clear that after 4 years of a President, there's a general feeling that he hasn't had enough time to accomplish his goals. Would you agree that both of these feelings have been prevalent and have influenced our elections?
Well, if you've heard about it.

But in truth, your criticism of the previous thread I started, which was certainly partisan,

You really are your own worst enemy sometimes.  You repeatedly try to argue that you were talking about conservatives and not Republicans in the beginning of the thread before you lost your own ability to hide what your true argument was, and then you just focused on republicans under the guise of modern republicans.  So yeah I called you out because your major point in that thread, only backed up by the second post, was bigoted nonsense disguised as some kind of grand adult conversation.  And my calling you out was asking you to define what you were truly talking about so I could understand your argument - because, really, I'm not making this up - it made no sense and only got worse when you tried to answer my very fair questions.  If you want to start a political debate like that thread or this one then you should be able to answer questions about your declarative statements.  And if you can't, your posts are useless.  

Meanwhile, nothing I wrote was Republican.  And therefore, nothing I wrote was partisan.  You were the partisan, not me.  I was and still am more than willing to have a conversation/debate on any of these things for the fun of it - insert nerd joke here - but if you aren't grown up enough to be able to actually back up your statements of fact then you're useless in the exercise.  Grow up and learn how to take a punch.  Our politics would be a hell of a lot better if everyone could do that.

got me to thinking that if this is truly going to be a politics subforum we should have at least some discussions around here of a non-partisan nature- by that I mean discussions about how our system works without everybody automatically taking predictable sides.

You original statement in that thread was - paraphrasing - every problem in America is due to conservatives, and that is because every position of the conservative is illogical or irrational (can't remember the word, don't feel like looking it up).  So, basically, your initial premise was, by definition, "anyone that disagrees with me is the problem and not rational."  It's fine to think that way.  Don't be all hollier than thou about it though.  Other posters do it better and in more entertaining ways.

You can't deny that, even if you see flaws in the theory, (or, as DaVinci points out, it's too small a sample) that it's at least pretty clear that after 8 years of one President, there seems to be a strong desire for change.
 Well, let's look at actual facts instead of timfacts (oh I made up a new phrase like fake news...)

Adams followed 8 years of Washington, same party in the parlance of the time.

Madison followed 8 years of Jefferson - same party.  Monroe followed 8 years of Madison - same party.  Quincy Adams followed him after 8 years - same party.

Van Buren followed 8 years of Jackson - same party.  Then we had a string of one term guys to Lincoln who was elected twice but didn't serve 8 years.  We have to go to Grant for the next President who served 8 years.  He was followed by Rutherford Hayes - same party and really contested election.  Hayes was followed by Garfield - same party, who died and Arthur filled out the spot.  Cleveland finally won for the Democrats in 1885 becoming the first non-republican in the office since Buchanan in 1860  - so 25 years is a little more than 8.  He only served one term before he was replaced and then replaced the guy who replaced him.  

Then you have the string of McKinley for 4.5 years, Teddy for 8 years and Taft for 4 years totaling another 16 years (more than 8) before a Democrat got in there.  Wilson served 8 years and then a republican took over so there is the first time your theory works.  The we had republicans for 12 years again.  Then democrats for 20 years.  Eisenhower had 8 years followed by a democrat so there is number 2.  Kennedy was killed with Johnson finishing out the 8 years which fits because a republican took over in Nixon, but there was something more going on there.  Still, that is number 3.  Nixon didn't finish 8 years but the party did, when Jimmy Carter came along.  I guess technically that is 4.  Carter got one term.  Republicans had the next 12.  Clinton had 8 and Bush replaced him in the second closest election in history.  After his 8 Obama had 8 and now Trump.  

But you allowed unusual circumstances.  So in the roughly 7 times it's happened, you had as unusual circumstances, the era after Wilson and WWI, Eisenhower into Kennedy wasn't very unusual accept for the rockstar status of Kennedy and the fact that he only won because of TV and Nixon being sick on it (throwing that in there for entertainment).  Then Nixon taking over in the midst of Vietnam - I'd call that unusual circumstances - you know, when those evil conservatives were destroying the world with their illogical irrational foreign policy that is the main problem in the world.  Nixon didn't finish hie 8 years but the party did leading to Jimmy Carter - I'd call the impeachment crisis unusual.  Bush followed Clinton in a fairly unusual election - look it up, really.  Then Obama, the first black guy - not unusual at all.  Then Trump - not unusual at all.

So yeah the examples you think might actually prove your point don't, and there is no grand political theory that you can make out of the fact that we have had a string of full two term Presidents.  Modern times or not.  What is more unusual is that we have just come out of a string of 3 presidents serving 8 years consecutively.  That hadn't happened since Jefferson, Madison and Monroe.  And what is more entertaining than that is the Quincy Adams - Jackson election that followed these 3 has a ton of similarities to the Trump-Clinton election after the three most recent guys.  If you are looking for something else more interesting that this thread will turn out to be, look into how the lessons of Adams/Jackson can teach on what is going to come from Trump/Clinton.  Because it's pretty cool (again, in a nerd sort of way).

I think it's also pretty clear that after 4 years of a President, there's a general feeling that he hasn't had enough time to accomplish his goals. Would you agree that both of these feelings have been prevalent and have influenced our elections?

No.  I wouldn't agree with almost anything you have written in this thread or the other one.  

 
Past trends do not equal future results.  Besides, over a pathetically small sample it is easy to find a pattern.  It is even easier to find a pattern when you allow for a couple of exceptions.  Trump is a terrible candidate and he only won by a fluke and the fact he ran against a hideous candidate.  This so-called theory is trash.  
Damn it, I hate when I agree with you. But, in this case, I do. 

 
Well, if you've heard about it.

You really are your own worst enemy sometimes.  You repeatedly try to argue that you were talking about conservatives and not Republicans in the beginning of the thread before you lost your own ability to hide what your true argument was, and then you just focused on republicans under the guise of modern republicans.  So yeah I called you out because your major point in that thread, only backed up by the second post, was bigoted nonsense disguised as some kind of grand adult conversation.  And my calling you out was asking you to define what you were truly talking about so I could understand your argument - because, really, I'm not making this up - it made no sense and only got worse when you tried to answer my very fair questions.  If you want to start a political debate like that thread or this one then you should be able to answer questions about your declarative statements.  And if you can't, your posts are useless.  

Meanwhile, nothing I wrote was Republican.  And therefore, nothing I wrote was partisan.  You were the partisan, not me.  I was and still am more than willing to have a conversation/debate on any of these things for the fun of it - insert nerd joke here - but if you aren't grown up enough to be able to actually back up your statements of fact then you're useless in the exercise.  Grow up and learn how to take a punch.  Our politics would be a hell of a lot better if everyone could do that.

You original statement in that thread was - paraphrasing - every problem in America is due to conservatives, and that is because every position of the conservative is illogical or irrational (can't remember the word, don't feel like looking it up).  So, basically, your initial premise was, by definition, "anyone that disagrees with me is the problem and not rational."  It's fine to think that way.  Don't be all hollier than thou about it though.  Other posters do it better and in more entertaining ways.

 Well, let's look at actual facts instead of timfacts (oh I made up a new phrase like fake news...)

Adams followed 8 years of Washington, same party in the parlance of the time.

Madison followed 8 years of Jefferson - same party.  Monroe followed 8 years of Madison - same party.  Quincy Adams followed him after 8 years - same party.

Van Buren followed 8 years of Jackson - same party.  Then we had a string of one term guys to Lincoln who was elected twice but didn't serve 8 years.  We have to go to Grant for the next President who served 8 years.  He was followed by Rutherford Hayes - same party and really contested election.  Hayes was followed by Garfield - same party, who died and Arthur filled out the spot.  Cleveland finally won for the Democrats in 1885 becoming the first non-republican in the office since Buchanan in 1860  - so 25 years is a little more than 8.  He only served one term before he was replaced and then replaced the guy who replaced him.  

Then you have the string of McKinley for 4.5 years, Teddy for 8 years and Taft for 4 years totaling another 16 years (more than 8) before a Democrat got in there.  Wilson served 8 years and then a republican took over so there is the first time your theory works.  The we had republicans for 12 years again.  Then democrats for 20 years.  Eisenhower had 8 years followed by a democrat so there is number 2.  Kennedy was killed with Johnson finishing out the 8 years which fits because a republican took over in Nixon, but there was something more going on there.  Still, that is number 3.  Nixon didn't finish 8 years but the party did, when Jimmy Carter came along.  I guess technically that is 4.  Carter got one term.  Republicans had the next 12.  Clinton had 8 and Bush replaced him in the second closest election in history.  After his 8 Obama had 8 and now Trump.  

But you allowed unusual circumstances.  So in the roughly 7 times it's happened, you had as unusual circumstances, the era after Wilson and WWI, Eisenhower into Kennedy wasn't very unusual accept for the rockstar status of Kennedy and the fact that he only won because of TV and Nixon being sick on it (throwing that in there for entertainment).  Then Nixon taking over in the midst of Vietnam - I'd call that unusual circumstances - you know, when those evil conservatives were destroying the world with their illogical irrational foreign policy that is the main problem in the world.  Nixon didn't finish hie 8 years but the party did leading to Jimmy Carter - I'd call the impeachment crisis unusual.  Bush followed Clinton in a fairly unusual election - look it up, really.  Then Obama, the first black guy - not unusual at all.  Then Trump - not unusual at all.

So yeah the examples you think might actually prove your point don't, and there is no grand political theory that you can make out of the fact that we have had a string of full two term Presidents.  Modern times or not.  What is more unusual is that we have just come out of a string of 3 presidents serving 8 years consecutively.  That hadn't happened since Jefferson, Madison and Monroe.  And what is more entertaining than that is the Quincy Adams - Jackson election that followed these 3 has a ton of similarities to the Trump-Clinton election after the three most recent guys.  If you are looking for something else more interesting that this thread will turn out to be, look into how the lessons of Adams/Jackson can teach on what is going to come from Trump/Clinton.  Because it's pretty cool (again, in a nerd sort of way).

No.  I wouldn't agree with almost anything you have written in this thread or the other one.  
You love these type of posts. First off, a correction: I wasn't accusing YOU of partisanship, I was admitting that I was being partisan.

I think that you place too much emphasis on older American history; I've told you that before. I don't think anything that happened in the 19th century has any real parallels with today's politics. Mass communication has changed everything. We became a mass communication society around 1930, but the first 20 years (the age of radio and newsreels) it was still in infancy. Our politics changed permanently around 1950 with the advent of television, which is why I think 1952 is such an appropriate starting point- I didn't choose that at random. (Actually, I didn't choose it at all; several political scientists have.)

The eight year theory is not some random thing I came up with. I'm not even sure I believe in it, but it IS a valid political theory. If you're going to argue against though, you won't get very far bringing up John Adams or 1876. You need to start with Ike and move on from there.

 
Past trends do not equal future results.  Besides, over a pathetically small sample it is easy to find a pattern.  It is even easier to find a pattern when you allow for a couple of exceptions.  Trump is a terrible candidate and he only won by a fluke and the fact he ran against a hideous candidate.  This so-called theory is trash.  
Thanks, Tim.

 
Its like driving a truck with a loose stearing wheel. You struggle to keep it in the middle where everyone can relax. Which I think, is what most Americans want. Unfortunately, both parties are becoming more and more extreme. So you hang on and try to keep it out of the ditch.

 
You love these type of posts. First off, a correction: I wasn't accusing YOU of partisanship, I was admitting that I was being partisan.

I think that you place too much emphasis on older American history; I've told you that before. I don't think anything that happened in the 19th century has any real parallels with today's politics. Mass communication has changed everything. We became a mass communication society around 1930, but the first 20 years (the age of radio and newsreels) it was still in infancy. Our politics changed permanently around 1950 with the advent of television, which is why I think 1952 is such an appropriate starting point- I didn't choose that at random. (Actually, I didn't choose it at all; several political scientists have.)

The eight year theory is not some random thing I came up with. I'm not even sure I believe in it, but it IS a valid political theory. If you're going to argue against though, you won't get very far bringing up John Adams or 1876. You need to start with Ike and move on from there.
So Ike, Kennedy/Johnson, Nixon/Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush W, and Obama.  So we cherry pick the data, we see we get 6 or 7 tails depending on how you count out of 8 or 9 trials and call it legitimate?  It is manipulated, cherry-picked, and even then still statistically meaningless. And besides all this just followed 20 years of rule from FDR/Truman.  The theory has no validity.  There is nothing unusual about flipping tails 6 out of 8 tries.  It really has zero bearing on my next coin flip.  In fact under the current administration I would bet heavily against it.  If you want to bet Trump wins based on this 'legitimate' theory, I have stacks of money that say otherwise. 

 
So Ike, Kennedy/Johnson, Nixon/Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush W, and Obama.  So we cherry pick the data, we see we get 6 or 7 tails depending on how you count out of 8 or 9 trials and call it legitimate?  It is manipulated, cherry-picked, and even then still statistically meaningless. And besides all this just followed 20 years of rule from FDR/Truman.  The theory has no validity.  There is nothing unusual about flipping tails 6 out of 8 tries.  It really has zero bearing on my next coin flip.  In fact under the current administration I would bet heavily against it.  If you want to bet Trump wins based on this 'legitimate' theory, I have stacks of money that say otherwise. 
Actually...I agree with you about Trump, but he doesn't destroy the theory. If the theory is at all true, then it's about stability- meaning that Americans are not comfortable with change every 4 years and prefer a continuity for at least the next 4 years. But since I believe that even his supporters would agree that Donald Trump represents instability and chaos, the desire for continuity gets thrown out the window.

 
You love these type of posts. First off, a correction: I wasn't accusing YOU of partisanship, I was admitting that I was being partisan.
Fair enough; though the language you used throughout doesn't support that.  Immaterial at this point.  That thread is dead like it should be because it was ridiculous nonsense from the start.

I think that you place too much emphasis on older American history; I've told you that before.
That is why you fail.  And it's why people like you today are the actual problem in politics, not conservatives 60 years ago - you.  

I don't think anything that happened in the 19th century has any real parallels with today's politics.
You are choosing to be blind because it doesn't fit your narrative.  It doesn't fit what you want to be true - that you have the answers or at least are not part of the problem.  Sorry, you are.  And more than me.

Mass communication has changed everything. We became a mass communication society around 1930, but the first 20 years (the age of radio and newsreels) it was still in infancy. Our politics changed permanently around 1950 with the advent of television, which is why I think 1952 is such an appropriate starting point- I didn't choose that at random. (Actually, I didn't choose it at all; several political scientists have.)
Yes the means of communication changed.  And?  We still do politics in the languages written by Adams, Jefferson and Madison.  But you wouldn't know that because to you nothing before 1950 matters, as if there is no use in understanding the context of the world leading up to World War II and how, to this day, we are still dealing with those issues.

The eight year theory is not some random thing I came up with. I'm not even sure I believe in it, but it IS a valid political theory.

No, it's not.  It's rather simplistic nonsense that whoever wrote about it and read it probably share the collective desire to feel smarter than everyone else.  I find repulsive because it does exactly what you try to do - ignore our political history which shapes every single thing we do today in government.  Everything.  And refusing to see the lessons of John Quincy Adams because he didn't have twitter makes you, again, the real problem in our politics.  Not people like me who happen to be conservative on many (but not most) issues.

If you're going to argue against though, you won't get very far bringing up John Adams or 1876. You need to start with Ike and move on from there.

No I don't.  Again, having a discussion about American political theories that ignores the context of our history are the useless exercise of the fool full of sound and fury and signifying nothing.  For someone so well read and willing to engage in this kind of exercise (a plus on your side of the ledger for sure) I cannot fathom how you think you can just ignore everything that created the America in 1950 that you want to start from.

Meanwhile, your statement that after 4 years people generally want to give the President more time isn't backed up by a single piece of data that I have ever seen (though I willing to look if you have any).  Your "theory" that it is a given that the opposition party will get the White House after 8 years of the same guy forgets the 2000 election that was a statistical tie, this last election where the popular vote didn't match the outcome, and the Obama election that had everything in American politics turned upside down and on its head - in a good way - that you can't measure yet over time because there is no lesson written in stone yet about how, if at all, that election changed American politics.  

Your 8 year theory is the bedrock of the child trying to sit at the adult table.  Do better.  You are capable.... I think.  Your first shots at this were abysmal.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Well, we disagree. As you say, we still do politics in the language of Adams, Jefferson and Madison. But despite that, we're so far removed from the politics they practiced that they wouldn't recognize us. I'm not arguing that this is a good thing, by the way, but it is what it is. Mass communication, as well as other factors slightly less important, have brought about a revolution in the way the game is played. It's the equivalent of Babe Ruth going to the Yankees and starting the home run era. 

 
Actually...I agree with you about Trump, but he doesn't destroy the theory. If the theory is at all true, then it's about stability- meaning that Americans are not comfortable with change every 4 years and prefer a continuity for at least the next 4 years. But since I believe that even his supporters would agree that Donald Trump represents instability and chaos, the desire for continuity gets thrown out the window.
I did not claim that Trump destroys the theory.  The theory fails on the pathetic analysis that is used to support it.   The random chance theory fits the data as well as the eight year theory. 

 
Don't agree to disagree. That's boring.

Why is it so hard to have an argument, debate or disagreement?  God we are soft.  Argue for your position. Don't let me bully you.  But don't think that just because you post something you won't get called on to defend it.

And don't take disagreement personally, another flaw of you people (and for the record I define you people as 'everyone not me'). 

Like your last thread this one has the potential for an interesting discussion. But if all you are looking for, again, is some kind of group agreement that explains why Hillary Clinton lost (it must be the dumb decisions of people that don't think them through) then you are working too hard to say the same thing over and over again expecting different results.

There's a word for that.

 
Well, we disagree. As you say, we still do politics in the language of Adams, Jefferson and Madison. But despite that, we're so far removed from the politics they practiced that they wouldn't recognize us. I'm not arguing that this is a good thing, by the way, but it is what it is. Mass communication, as well as other factors slightly less important, have brought about a revolution in the way the game is played. It's the equivalent of Babe Ruth going to the Yankees and starting the home run era. 
And I don't think we are that far removed.  Frankly, I don't think the American people have changed all that much since 1787, generally speaking.  The Trump election kinda supports that - again, generally speaking.

 
So two of six circumstances did not meet the model? Not sure if that percentage of suck a small sample size should be the basis for a reputable theory

 
The theory may have many methodological shortcomings, but I don't argue the outcome: he's probably getting re-elected. The economy is going ok, we're not at war, his favorable/unfavorable splits aren't going to change much, he's a well-known quantity, and the population demographics aren't shifting enough in the states he flipped by 2020 to make up for it. 

 
The theory may have many methodological shortcomings, but I don't argue the outcome: he's probably getting re-elected.

The economy is going ok,

I doubt it's sustainable and it certainly will not continue at this rate

we're not at war

It's not like her isn't trying

hisfavorable/unfavorable splits aren't going to change much,

A proven Russian conspiracy will take effect at some point and he'll struggle to keep 30%

he's a well-known quantity, and the population demographics aren't shifting enough in the states he flipped by 2020 to make up for it. 

Even those who loved him are stunned at his ineptitude at everything but fomenting. Most of those on the fence are noticing the grass is not very green on his side

 
Don't agree to disagree. That's boring.

Why is it so hard to have an argument, debate or disagreement?  God we are soft.  Argue for your position. Don't let me bully you.  But don't think that just because you post something you won't get called on to defend it.

And don't take disagreement personally, another flaw of you people (and for the record I define you people as 'everyone not me'). 

Like your last thread this one has the potential for an interesting discussion. But if all you are looking for, again, is some kind of group agreement that explains why Hillary Clinton lost (it must be the dumb decisions of people that don't think them through) then you are working too hard to say the same thing over and over again expecting different results.

There's a word for that.
I didn't agree to disagree. And I don't take disagreement personally. You HAVE been somewhat personally insulting in this thread and others, but I forgive you. :D

 
The theory may have many methodological shortcomings, but I don't argue the outcome: he's probably getting re-elected. The economy is going ok, we're not at war, his favorable/unfavorable splits aren't going to change much, he's a well-known quantity, and the population demographics aren't shifting enough in the states he flipped by 2020 to make up for it. 
I don't want to be the one to argue with the theory I introduced to this thread, but yeah, I'm going to argue the outcome. I mentioned instability earlier this morning.

I want to add that there are also some parallels to Carter. A big part of the reason that Carter lost was that he was challenged by Ted Kennedy. Kennedy didn't win the nomination, but it weakened Carter, (just as Reagan weakened Ford in 1976 and Bernie weakened Hillary in 2016).

Almost for sure Kasich is going to challenge Trump. Possibly other Republicans as well. If that happens, Trump is likely to win the nomination, but the GOP will be anything but unified (especially if Trump continues to work with Democrats as he is showing signs of doing.) In that case, a strong candidate from the Dems could sweep all before them. But will the Dems produce a strong candidate? That is the question...

 
But if all you are looking for, again, is some kind of group agreement that explains why Hillary Clinton lost
I'm not. I'm frankly tired of talking about it.

I'm frankly astonished that anyone, especially Hillary supporters, is reading her book. Who the #### is buying that? If you were an Atlanta Falcons fan, would you buy a book by Matt Ryan called, "How We Lost the Superbowl"??? I sure wouldn't. What self-respecting fan would want to go through that torture?

My advice to Hillary, as a stalwart supporter: shut up. Shut up for about ten years. Then you can re-emerge as an elder stateswoman, highly respected, and perhaps have a significant influence on affairs. There's history for this. But for now, go away.

 
I don't want to be the one to argue with the theory I introduced to this thread, but yeah, I'm going to argue the outcome. I mentioned instability earlier this morning.

I want to add that there are also some parallels to Carter. A big part of the reason that Carter lost was that he was challenged by Ted Kennedy. Kennedy didn't win the nomination, but it weakened Carter, (just as Reagan weakened Ford in 1976 and Bernie weakened Hillary in 2016).

Almost for sure Kasich is going to challenge Trump. Possibly other Republicans as well. If that happens, Trump is likely to win the nomination, but the GOP will be anything but unified (especially if Trump continues to work with Democrats as he is showing signs of doing.) In that case, a strong candidate from the Dems could sweep all before them. But will the Dems produce a strong candidate? That is the question...
What? A big part of why he lost was Ted?  I suggest you read this. I’d say the big reason was the Iran situation.

http://martinmeenagh.blogspot.com/2014/06/why-did-jimmy-carter-fail-to-gain-re.html

 
Taking some advice from YF, I'm broadening the subject of this thread. I'd like to discuss any and all election patterns, and see if we can use them to make predictions about the future.

One of the most extraordinary aspects of the 2016 election is that both of the candidates had almost 100% name recognition. I can't recall when that has ever happened before. I think it will be near impossible for the Democrats to produce another candidate with the name recognition of Hillary Clinton, which means that President Trump should have a decisive advantage at least in this area.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top