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Patterns in elections (1 Viewer)

timschochet said:
I didn't agree to disagree. And I don't take disagreement personally. You HAVE been somewhat personally insulting in this thread and others, but I forgive you. :D
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You called me the problem in the world for the last 70 years.  If you want to punch like a man be a man when the counter punch comes. 

 
timschochet said:
I'm not. I'm frankly tired of talking about it.

I'm frankly astonished that anyone, especially Hillary supporters, is reading her book. Who the #### is buying that? If you were an Atlanta Falcons fan, would you buy a book by Matt Ryan called, "How We Lost the Superbowl"??? I sure wouldn't. What self-respecting fan would want to go through that torture?

My advice to Hillary, as a stalwart supporter: shut up. Shut up for about ten years. Then you can re-emerge as an elder stateswoman, highly respected, and perhaps have a significant influence on affairs. There's history for this. But for now, go away.
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 She certainly has bigger balls than Nixon. 

 
timschochet said:
Taking some advice from YF, I'm broadening the subject of this thread. I'd like to discuss any and all election patterns, and see if we can use them to make predictions about the future.

One of the most extraordinary aspects of the 2016 election is that both of the candidates had almost 100% name recognition. I can't recall when that has ever happened before. I think it will be near impossible for the Democrats to produce another candidate with the name recognition of Hillary Clinton, which means that President Trump should have a decisive advantage at least in this area.
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 Carter Reagan. Everyone knew them, no?

 
cosjobs said:
The theory may have many methodological shortcomings, but I don't argue the outcome: he's probably getting re-elected.

The economy is going ok,

I doubt it's sustainable and it certainly will not continue at this rate

we're not at war

It's not like her isn't trying

his favorable/unfavorable splits aren't going to change much,

A proven Russian conspiracy will take effect at some point and he'll struggle to keep 30%

he's a well-known quantity, and the population demographics aren't shifting enough in the states he flipped by 2020 to make up for it. 

Even those who loved him are stunned at his ineptitude at everything but fomenting. Most of those on the fence are noticing the grass is not very green on his side
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timschochet said:
I don't want to be the one to argue with the theory I introduced to this thread, but yeah, I'm going to argue the outcome. I mentioned instability earlier this morning.

I want to add that there are also some parallels to Carter. A big part of the reason that Carter lost was that he was challenged by Ted Kennedy. Kennedy didn't win the nomination, but it weakened Carter, (just as Reagan weakened Ford in 1976 and Bernie weakened Hillary in 2016).

Almost for sure Kasich is going to challenge Trump. Possibly other Republicans as well. If that happens, Trump is likely to win the nomination, but the GOP will be anything but unified (especially if Trump continues to work with Democrats as he is showing signs of doing.) In that case, a strong candidate from the Dems could sweep all before them. But will the Dems produce a strong candidate? That is the question...
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Perhaps, but people in this thread are more in tune then the electorate at large. Barring a macro issue changing, not sure he's getting primaried (of course I do hope Kasich tries).

 
Better thread title.  Patterns at only the President level are hard if not impossible to quantify without a ton of caveats making the exercise almost pointless. 

We don't get this President without the Congress we've had for the past 20 years I don't think.

 
timschochet said:
I don't know who Martin Meenagh is. But of course Iran had a lot to do with it. So did high inflation. And obviously, as I mentioned before, the extraordinary charisma of Ronald Reagan. But I also think Ted played a big part.
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Hippling......

I can make a pretty decent argument that Clinton only won because of Perot. Having more than 1 true challenger for the incumbent makes it really really hard on the incumbent. 

 
HellToupee said:
Did you hear Rod Stewart had his stomach pumped?

Sorry back to the subject. Carter had the deck stacked against him rightfully or wrongly and Dukakis might have been the worst candidate in the last 100 years
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TBH, Dukakis probably would have won against Trump so maybe the second worst candidate in the last 100 years.

 
MaxThreshold said:
TBH, Dukakis probably would have won against Trump so maybe the second worst candidate in the last 100 years.
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You may not like Trump but he threw the rule book away for campaigns . In 84 Trump would lose to him but put both elections in 2016 & Trump cleans his clock. Trumps ability to use social media and stay in the forefront of the msm deserves a lot of credit. 

Dukakis makes Kerry look formidable 

 
HellToupee said:
You may not like Trump but he threw the rule book away for campaigns . In 84 Trump would lose to him but put both elections in 2016 & Trump cleans his clock. Trumps ability to use social media and stay in the forefront of the msm deserves a lot of credit. 

Dukakis makes Kerry look formidable 
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He did, but I was actually talking about HRC being the worst candidate in the last 100 years.

 
Yankee23Fan said:
Hippling......

I can make a pretty decent argument that Clinton only won because of Perot. Having more than 1 true challenger for the incumbent makes it really really hard on the incumbent. 
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Ross Perot was an earlier version of Trump- a right wing populist and outsider businessman. Unlike Trump, he had a certain amount of credibility/ his rescue of his employees from Iran in 1979 (documented in Ken Follett's fine book) was nothing short of amazing. 

Perot could not have won the Republican nomination in 1992. But suppose he had run as a Republican in 1996? He might very well have been elected. 

 
The pattern is that voter trust in our institutions have been drifting lower for 50 years.  Finally it collapsed in 2016, which allowed the Goldwater / Perot type to actually win the election.  The system is now broken. I don't think you will ever see trust be rebuilt without a revolt.

 
timschochet said:
Taking some advice from YF, I'm broadening the subject of this thread. I'd like to discuss any and all election patterns, and see if we can use them to make predictions about the future.

One of the most extraordinary aspects of the 2016 election is that both of the candidates had almost 100% name recognition. I can't recall when that has ever happened before. I think it will be near impossible for the Democrats to produce another candidate with the name recognition of Hillary Clinton, which means that President Trump should have a decisive advantage at least in this area.
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AKA, the worst two candidates, EVER.

Bad analysis, imo. 

 
A politician has a huge advantage when they have more name recognition than their opponent.  It's why incumbents usually win, and it was a lot of the reason Trump did so well in the Republican primaries.  Trump tweeting and being every minute on every news show helped him.  Also if the moderates who normally swing an election voted for a guy 4 years ago they will probably vote for him again if the world isn't falling apart.  Electorates don't change a lot in 4 years.

As to parties shifting every 8 years.  I think that's partly because of a dislike of change, a natural conservatism in the American people.  A lot of things changed during the Obama years.  ACA, legalized marijuana, gay marriages to name a few.  There's bound to be resentment.  If Trump is in office 8 years quite a few things will likely change too and there will be more resentment.

A lot of these issues are dead cat bounces anyway.  My guess is 30-40 years from now we'll look at trying to keep Latinos and Muslims out of this country not that differently than we look at civil rights battles 50 years ago.  Older folk die and their prejudices die with them.

 
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@timschochet

You should start your next thread on the parallels, if any, between Trump's "attack" on the NFL and McCarthy's on the Army.

What was the specific, Have you no decency, sir, moment?

 
This is the political theory that, in recent modern American history, every Democratic president has been proceeded by a Republican president named George Bush. As long as the Republicans don't nominate another candidate named George Bush, they will never lose control of the White House.

 
BeaverCleaver said:
What? A big part of why he lost was Ted?  I suggest you read this. I’d say the big reason was the Iran situation.

http://martinmeenagh.blogspot.com/2014/06/why-did-jimmy-carter-fail-to-gain-re.html
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  • By 1979, secular trends in American society were meshing with Carter’s apparent inability to govern to create serious questions over the future of his administration. These trends are best summarised as the growth of a kind of individualist narcissism attached to a corresponding breakdown of social capital and economic value.
So Tim is wrong looking all the way back to 1950 and should start with 1980?

Also this suggest he is wrong in that the cause is thinking that voters think a President needs more time after four years, but instead simply can't admit that their vote four years earlier was wrong.   Not an issue after eight?  

Don't know that I agree, but good food for thought.

 
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