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QB Josh Allen, BUF (1 Viewer)

Dr. Dan said:
anyone rolling with him in the big game?
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Don't really have a choice. My opponent has Mahomes, I'm projected to lose by a fair bit and the only options of any note on the wire are Foles, Darnold and Carr. Might as well stick it out with Josh Stallion and hope for the best.

 
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Lascelle said:
Don't really have a choice. My opponent has Mahomes, I'm projected to lose by a fair bit and the only options of any note on the wire are Foles, Darnold and Carr. Might as well stick it out with Josh Stallion and hope for the best.
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yeah my opponent has mahomes too. thinking of rolling him out over Goff. cant muster the cojones to do it yet

 
Serves me right for starting a rookie qb in new England in the fantasy championships. Felt like I had no choice but of course cousins throws a hail mary. 

 
Boy I'd feel great about having this kid in dynasty. I liked him best out of this crop of QBs. With his rushing you're looking at a very high floor. I like Buffalo a lot as a sleeper offense next year. 

 
While his range of outcomes is significant and he has a very low floor, he is a borderline qb1 next year. The upside, as we have seen, is enormous. He is a week winner when right.

 
Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva

#Bills had bye in Week 11. Top-10 FF QBs from Weeks 12-17:

  • 1. Josh Allen (25.4 PPG)
  • 2. Deshaun Watson (24.2 PPG)
  • 3. Pat Mahomes (23.9)
  • 4. Matt Ryan (21.4)
  • 5. Dak Prescott (21.0)
  • 6. Lamar Jackson (20.0)
  • 7. Baker Mayfield (19.9)
  • 8. Winston (19.8)
  • 9. Big Ben (19.7)
  • 10. Luck (19.5)
5:34 PM - 31 Dec 2018

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Did the 2018 season actually happen or did I just imagine it?
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In the interest of full disclosure, I didnt want anything to do with him dating back to about 14 months ago. He's developed since then, but development isnt linear. And the areas he developed just shows how low the bar was to start. He mostly got the Benny Hill music out of his game and started running forward rather than backwards, side to side, and in circles. He was still reckless in doing so though. And I dont think that is sustainable. His accuracy is still an adventure and there was nothing to believe it got better. And unless that's coached out of him he's capped - and it's something that usually cant be coached up. Given his other skills I dont know what that cap is, but as is the best case is the variance is high. He may be able to take advantage of weaker opponents, but good ones will eat him up. The worst case...

 
MAC_32 said:
In the interest of full disclosure, I didnt want anything to do with him dating back to about 14 months ago. 
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That's what I figured.  Josh Allen is one of those players who got locked into a narrative before the draft, and I think that narrative is basically impervious to falsification.  The guy is coming off a five-touchdown performance and you're still talking about him as if he's a liability.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
That's what I figured.  Josh Allen is one of those players who got locked into a narrative before the draft, and I think that narrative is basically impervious to falsification.  The guy is coming off a five-touchdown performance and you're still talking about him as if he's a liability.
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if you only look at the box scores, I can see how youd come to this opinion of him

 
IvanKaramazov said:
That's what I figured.  Josh Allen is one of those players who got locked into a narrative before the draft, and I think that narrative is basically impervious to falsification.  The guy is coming off a five-touchdown performance and you're still talking about him as if he's a liability.
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I watched him in college. My opinion didnt lock in from a pre draft narrative. It locked in from watching him butcher the quarterback position. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Josh Allen was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week by the NFL this morning.  

But let's not forget about the time he looked bad against Iowa.  That's what really matters.
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wow. ok. forget constructive conversation. I guess we have the 2019 mvp. why play the season let's just give him the trophy now. 

Fitzpatrick won it week 1 and 2. Mariota won it week 4, Crowell week 5, and Albert Wilson week 6.  Im not sure what your purpose is in pointing out a single weekly award, but it goes to big names as well as not so big names. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
wow. ok. forget constructive conversation. I guess we have the 2019 mvp. why play the season let's just give him the trophy now. 

Fitzpatrick won it week 1 and 2. Mariota won it week 4, Crowell week 5, and Albert Wilson week 6.  Im not sure what your purpose is in pointing out a single weekly award, but it goes to big names as well as not so big names. 
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Fair enough.  And also -- of course -- lots of QBs have shown promise in their rookie season only to amount to naught down the road.  Obviously Allen could end up following the career trajectory of a Vince Young, for example.

I just found it odd that somebody picked this particular week to rehash all the pre-draft stuff.

 
Dr. Dan said:
wow. ok. forget constructive conversation. I guess we have the 2019 mvp. why play the season let's just give him the trophy now. 

Fitzpatrick won it week 1 and 2. Mariota won it week 4, Crowell week 5, and Albert Wilson week 6.  Im not sure what your purpose is in pointing out a single weekly award, but it goes to big names as well as not so big names. 
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I wasn't high on Allen coming into the league and was praying the Jets would pass on him, but if I was a Bills fan (who felt the same way) he would have gone a long way towards making me feel better, at the very least.

The book is not written on him yet, but the first chapter was better than expected.

 
Allen still leaves the pocket early at times, but he hangs around more than he did early in the season. And if you have watched the Bills, you know how terrible the O-line is. So I don't put that all on him. If they're able to upgrade the line this offseason, I think then we'll get a better read on what his pocket presence is like.

He definitely has made progress in other areas as well. He showed an improved ability to make progressions in his reads, although he still has work to do there. He also started showing the ability to look off coverages and then make the right throw. Again, still a work in progress, but there was clear progress there.

And I'm not so sure that he didn't make strides with accuracy. His footwork was much more consistent as the season progressed. The "bad" throws seemed most often to be due more to miscommunication on routes than simply poor accuracy. His worst looking throws were typically because either he expected the receiver to sit and they kept running, or because he expected them to keep running and they sat. He still had some just bad throws in there, but his accuracy really didn't seem like a huge issue towards the end of the season IMO.

He still has a long way to go and may never get there, but I'm not sure how anyone watches his entire season and comes away saying he's made little to no progress.

And whatever progress he made, he did despite being thrown into about the worst circumstances possible. No veteran QB to learn from until halfway through the season, getting thrown into action way earlier than intended, behind the lowest paid and among worst O-lines, with virtually no running game, throwing to WRs like Kelvin Benjamin's corpse, Zay Jones, and a bunch of UDFA like Robert Foster and Ray-Ray Mcloud. Oh, and highly paid TE Charles Clay who couldn't catch a cold. Everyone makes excuses for Josh Rosen, but there's no way any other QB in the league had worse support around them than Josh Allen and it's really not even close.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Allen still leaves the pocket early at times, but he hangs around more than he did early in the season. And if you have watched the Bills, you know how terrible the O-line is. So I don't put that all on him. If they're able to upgrade the line this offseason, I think then we'll get a better read on what his pocket presence is like.

He definitely has made progress in other areas as well. He showed an improved ability to make progressions in his reads, although he still has work to do there. He also started showing the ability to look off coverages and then make the right throw. Again, still a work in progress, but there was clear progress there.

And I'm not so sure that he didn't make strides with accuracy. His footwork was much more consistent as the season progressed. The "bad" throws seemed most often to be due more to miscommunication on routes than simply poor accuracy. His worst looking throws were typically because either he expected the receiver to sit and they kept running, or because he expected them to keep running and they sat. He still had some just bad throws in there, but his accuracy really didn't seem like a huge issue towards the end of the season IMO.

He still has a long way to go and may never get there, but I'm not sure how anyone watches his entire season and comes away saying he's made little to no progress.

And whatever progress he made, he did despite being thrown into about the worst circumstances possible. No veteran QB to learn from until halfway through the season, getting thrown into action way earlier than intended, behind the lowest paid and among worst O-lines, with virtually no running game, throwing to WRs like Kelvin Benjamin's corpse, Zay Jones, and a bunch of UDFA like Robert Foster and Ray-Ray Mcloud. Oh, and highly paid TE Charles Clay who couldn't catch a cold. Everyone makes excuses for Josh Rosen, but there's no way any other QB in the league had worse support around them than Josh Allen and it's really not even close.
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Completely agree about this and makes what Allen was able to accomplish this year that much more impressive. He really has a freakish set of tools to work with; huge, fast and a cannon of an arm. His good passes can be jaw dropping darts. He also seems to have "it" when it comes to being competitive and willing his team to win. If he has what it takes between the ears to continue to learn the NFL game and see the field he will be the best QB of this class and it might not be close.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I wasn't high on Allen coming into the league and was praying the Jets would pass on him, but if I was a Bills fan (who felt the same way) he would have gone a long way towards making me feel better, at the very least.

The book is not written on him yet, but the first chapter was better than expected.
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He was the QB no one wanted in rookie drafts. He turned out to be one of, if not the, best 2018 rookie QB. Much better than expected for Chapter 1. Where he goes from here is the million dollar question. If I were a Bills fan I'd be much more optimistic about that franchise's future. Most optimistic in decades probably. He looks good. Far from polished and he could still be a strong QB2/low QB1 in fantasy and an above average NFL QB. That's not a bad thing. 

 
I think the Bills are aware that he will never be a high 60s% completion guy.  I think they've come to the conclusion that they'd rather him be a 58-62% guy throwing longer passes rather than a 65% guy throwing the short stuff that really isn't his strength.  Whether that will work or not is another story.  I think if he can avoid the turnovers it can, but he really needs to work on that

One thing to add... all of his rushing mainly comes off of scrambles too rather that designed runs.  It does affect the coverages/rush schemes you can throw at him

 
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IvanKaramazov said:
Fair enough.  And also -- of course -- lots of QBs have shown promise in their rookie season only to amount to naught down the road.  Obviously Allen could end up following the career trajectory of a Vince Young, for example.

I just found it odd that somebody picked this particular week to rehash all the pre-draft stuff.
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It's all a part of the picture. Forgetting about it and only referencing what he did in the final few games is where mistakes are made.

Browns withstanding I dont discuss players much in season because I try to do any homework in the offseason. I just read and watch a lot during the season. 

 
This video shows a lot of what I was talking about as far as progress for Allen (and a great job by Foster as well).

Allen reads the defense correctly, calls the right audible, sets his feet quickly and correctly, and makes a perfect back shoulder throw with anticipation to the correct read for the TD. 

These are the types of throws that he struggled with and that his critics say he'll never be consistent enough with to be good. He made a decent number of these over the last few weeks. If he makes these types of throws on a regular basis, he's going to be just fine.

ETA: There are 2 other throws to Zay Jones just ad impressive IMO. On the first one, it looked like Allen threw the ball off-target behind Jones, Jones adjusted, stopped in his tracks, and went back the other way for a TD. Only, the Bills ran the exact same play later, demonstrating that Allen's throw actually wasn't off-target, but rather intended to be to the back shoulder in the middle of the field to allow Jones to turn and run the other way. A very creative play design IMO and not one I'm sure I've seen before.

 
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11 second-year NFL players poised for a breakout season

11 second-year NFL players poised for a breakout season

3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Allen entered his rookie season shouldering a load of high expectations, but it wasn’t his ridiculous arm strength that shown through. Rather, Allen made his mark as a rookie with his legs, which will be a key aspect of his game going forward. However, Buffalo wants to utilize Allen’s remarkable arm strength, so they spent the offseason re-working their offensive line and adding downfield threats like John Brown to benefit their young quarterback. Expect Allen to make a significant Year 2 leap.
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Grigs Allmoon said:
I meant it rhetorically, since I had never heard of him.

I did do a quick google before posting, though.
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Important info on Schatz: 

-He is a really smart guy

-He, and FO, are built on analytics and their own formulas they've created

-He, and FO, were amongst those on the forefront of analytics

-He is a Patriots fan

If you've read FO over the last year, you know they hate Allen. They tore him to shreds pre-draft and have taken every opportunity to criticize him since because their formulas say they his style can't have success in the NFL. Their analysis of him in games was pretty slanted all year. They definitely seem heavily invested in his failure as his success would call into question some of their analytical methodology.

Here's the thing, I think that it's absolutely fair to say that the odds are stacked against Allen and that he does not fit the model of a typical modern successful NFL QB. If he has success, it will not be in the same way most guys are finding success. He will certainly be an outlier.

But he does do some elite things that other guys really can't do. So success isn't impossible for him. 

For whatever reason, FO often talks in absolutes and and gets downright defensive and combative at the mere notion that their analytics may not capture and predict every individual and situation.

 
I wonder what the sliding scale looks like between completion percentage and YPA. 

MLB and the NBA have changed tremendously over the last 10-15 years as teams have realized that going big or going home actually leads to a greater chance of winning.

Today's NFL is no question a passing league as good teams understand that passing has a greater return than running. But there's still a heavy emphasis on completion percentage, at least in the media world. 

But with the rules so heavily favoring offenses and pass interference being a spot foul, what if completion percentage is overrated? What if an average deeper depth of target is just as, or more, important than completion percentage?

 
GroveDiesel said:
I wonder what the sliding scale looks like between completion percentage and YPA. 

MLB and the NBA have changed tremendously over the last 10-15 years as teams have realized that going big or going home actually leads to a greater chance of winning.

Today's NFL is no question a passing league as good teams understand that passing has a greater return than running. But there's still a heavy emphasis on completion percentage, at least in the media world. 

But with the rules so heavily favoring offenses and pass interference being a spot foul, what if completion percentage is overrated? What if an average deeper depth of target is just as, or more, important than completion percentage?
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Josh #moneyball Allen

 
4 key takeaways from the first two weeks of OTAs

Excerpt:

Josh Allen enters 2019 as the central figure in the Bills narrative. After consistent improvement in his 11 starts during his rookie campaign, the Bills look to Allen not just to pick up where he left off but take big steps forward as a franchise quarterback.

For his part, last year’s first round draft pick sees a Bills team getting better and more cohesive this spring.

“We come in, we get bigger, stronger, faster as a team,” he told One Bills Live. “We develop that team camaraderie. And really kind of dive into this playbook a little more.”

Allen says he has had more time in the last few months to work closely with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll on the finer points of the Bills offense.

“Last year, I don’t think I did enough, with everything going on – first year in the NFL and a lot of people pulling you in different directions,” he said. “This year, I sat down with ‘Dabs’ (Brian Daboll) and went over what I like, what I didn’t like. And he’s trusting me in that mindset. If there’s a play that he wants to call, and I don’t like it, he’s not going to call it. So, it’s developing that trust.”

The OTA team and 7-on-7 drills give Allen a chance to develop trust with his receiving corps, including some important newcomers to the position.

“Communicating with receivers – what depth we want them to run the route, when they should turn their eyes, the type of body language they give me and where I need to put the ball,” Allen says. “It’s the open communication we’re having right now that’s really good.”
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