To add : thanks for he good and thoughtful discussion.
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Top 10 Real NFL QBs For Rest Of This Year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Which QBs would do as well on lesser teams?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
At a minimum these PFF grades and statistics are interesting. Some surprising ranks....did anyone think Hurts would be QB as a rusher? Herbert would have a passer graded that was 13th? I don't know all of their grading process (no one does) but it's supposed to eliminate teammates effect and grade the individual to the extent that is possible.
Top Ten Passers Qualifying QBs
BTT - Big Time Throw
TWP = turnover worthy play
PFF leans heavily on both in their YE rankings of QBs, and annual article that often generates controversy bc it's more about their proprietary data than counting stats.
Top Ten Passers Qualifying QBs
- Tagovailoa 90.6
- Jackson 90.1
- Allen 87.7
- Mahomes 83.7
- Goff 83.0
- Cousins 81.7
- Stafford 81.6
- Smith 79.1
- Lawrence 78.7
- Hurts 76.9
- Mahomes 90.7
- Purdy 88.9
- Fields 82.4
- Jones 81.6
- Dobbs 80.9
- Prescott 78.9
- Mayfield 76.7
- Love 76.6
- Wilson 76.2
- Jackson 75,7
- Jackson 90.8
- Mahomes 90.2
- Allen 90.0
- Tagovailoa 89.3
- Goff 85.7
- Stafford 82.8
- Cousins 82.2
- Lawrence 81.8
- Hurts 79.2
- Smith 78.5
- Stafford 19
- Tagovailoa 17
- Hurts 17
- Jackson 14
- Howell 14
- Allen 14
- Wilson 12
- Lawrence 12
- Carr 12
- Purdy 11
- Tagovailoa 7.2
- Stafford 7.0
- Hurts 6.7
- Jackson 6.5
- Tannehill 5.2
- Purdy 5.2
- Wilson 5.2
- Howell 5.2
- Lawrence 4.7
- Allen 4.7
- Minshew 15 (7.9%)
Gardner has played 6 g, started 3. In his non-starts he has TWP. His TWP % in his 3 starts is 10.1% (15 in 149 PA + RA), which would be an NFL record. - Jones 15 (5.6%)
- Ridder 15 (5.5%)
- Hurts 11 (3.7%)
- Howell 11 (3.3%)
- Purdy 10 (4.3%)
- Dobbs 10 (3.6%)
- Lawrence 10 (3.4%)
- Mahomes 10 (3.2%)
- Smith 9 (4.0%)
- Burrow 1.5% (4)
- Goff 1.8% (5)
- Stafford 2.0% (6)
- Allen 2.1% (7)
- Cousins 2.2% (7)
- Prescott 2.2% (5)
- Mayfield 2.4% (7)
- Stroud 2.4% (6)
- Fields 2.4% (5)
- Carr 2.7% (8)
BTT - Big Time Throw
TWP = turnover worthy play
PFF leans heavily on both in their YE rankings of QBs, and annual article that often generates controversy bc it's more about their proprietary data than counting stats.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I'm the stats guy who kills a good conversation.
you're
you're
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Seems like Mahomes is really in a tier of his own right now. Tough to parse the others.
I will say the stats you've provided support my theory, that Josh Allen isn't actually some reckless turnover prone player, but has mostly just had awful luck. Interestingly, Mahomes has seemingly had luck on his side quite a bit this year. Sometimes I think things like that come down to coaching/playcalling, where its easier to be lucky when plays are designed well or called at the right time.I'm the stats guy who kills a good conversation.
you're
Not sure I'd want to offshoot it to another thread, but I'd be curious what people thought about top-10 NFL players at another position, like WR or something.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I was curious if anyone would be interested in a thread that is a repository of statistical data. Not the simple counting stats we all look at but PFF grades, NextGenStats, deeper analytics. Rising/declining snap counts, depth and direction of targets, OL rankings based off data instead of opinion, rushing direction splits, what do we actually mean when we say expected yards or expected points over average, et al Am. NFL version of SABRmetrics if you will....SAFRmetrics?
Big problem as I see it as it just something you read, comprehend, move on to the next shining object....would it actually generate discussion? I don't know. I suspect not but am interested in hearing opinions.
***************
Another thread idea that I've pondered is a film analysis repository. YouTubers that provide film analysis, Baldy's Breakdown clips, that sort of thing.
Thing is, almost all of fantasy football - for me - revolves around those two things. I get very little of it from FGBs, I have to scour scores of sites to track it all down, and I see only scant evidence others pursue the hobby in quite the same way. I presume it's bc it's so time consuming to do things that way, but if we had a thread that was a central storehouse for this info maybe we could find a way to make those aspects more accessible. Post the data, and then follow up analysis of OK here's what I think what that tells us. If we make it easier to digest and understand then maybe that spurs greater discussion.
I'm a nerd with too much time on his hands due to a disability, so for me it's just something keeps me busy. I tried a mini-version last year with TE Data about snaps, targets, alignment, etc. I received a lot of positive feedback, and requests to redo it this year. I declined bc while it was interesting, I felt it lacked predictive value. Plus last year it took me a long time to compile. I've since unearthed some resources that allow me to find stuff like that faster.
What do you guys think?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, I think the eye test of watching football the last few years bears out that he's just different. Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Burrow, etc. can all have games where they are unstoppable. They can even have seasons where they are lights out MVP caliber guys. But only Mahomes seems able to do it play after play, game after game, season after season. He is absolutely in the the Montana, Manning, Marino convo of best QBs of all time.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
When you presume, you make a pres out of u and me.Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
So you think Josh Allen would do better on a team that was worse than the Bills? Does Josh Allen secretly want Diggs to miss time? Like this idea doesn't make sense at all.Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
-OZ-
Footballguy
It seems like you missed the entire point of the thread.So you think Josh Allen would do better on a team that was worse than the Bills? Does Josh Allen secretly want Diggs to miss time? Like this idea doesn't make sense at all.Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
For the rest of the season starting now, how do you rank the QBs for real NFL ability for the rest of this season? No contracts factored. No next year factored. No teammates factored. Just who they are right now as an NFL QB.
Hurts is great, but more of his greatness is due to his teammates than the guys I ranked above him
Feel free to disagree of course, all this is speculation anyway.
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So you think Josh Allen would do better on a team that was worse than the Bills? Does Josh Allen secretly want Diggs to miss time? Like this idea doesn't make sense at all.Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
I think he's saying some QBs benefit (or are hurt) by their team. Nobody is saying Allen wants the bills weapons to be worse.
It's the classic question every asks - how would the player do with a different cast. Brock Purdy in Pittsburgh is likely a different player.
Some players are less dependent on cast. I think that's what he's saying with Allen and I think that makes total sense.
Which is why for this exercise, I asked folks to rank them independent of their cast. Rank them as if you were a GM building a team for this year and you had no other players on the roster yet.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I get the idea. Let's take Kelce for example. I think everyone would agree he's a great TE and no matter where he played, he would be good. However, getting paired with Mahomes/Reid for these years has maximized his skills and production. Or we think McLaurin is super talented and if he had landed with the Chargers or Cowboys he might be viewed differently. I totally get that but I think this is true of literally every player. They all benefit from a positive situation and are hurt by a negative situation.So you think Josh Allen would do better on a team that was worse than the Bills? Does Josh Allen secretly want Diggs to miss time? Like this idea doesn't make sense at all.Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
I think he's saying some QBs benefit (or are hurt) by their team. Nobody is saying Allen wants the bills weapons to be worse.
It's the classic question every asks - how would the player do with a different cast. Brock Purdy in Pittsburgh is likely a different player.
Some players are less dependent on cast. I think that's what he's saying with Allen and I think that makes total sense.
Which is why for this exercise, I asked folks to rank them independent of their cast. Rank them as if you were a GM building a team for this year and you had no other players on the roster yet.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Using the parameters set by Joe...
01 P Mahomes
02 J Allen
03 J Burrow
04 T Lawrence
05 J Hurts
06 J Herbert
07 L Jackson
08 K Cousins
09 J Goff
10 M Stafford
01 P Mahomes
02 J Allen
03 J Burrow
04 T Lawrence
05 J Hurts
06 J Herbert
07 L Jackson
08 K Cousins
09 J Goff
10 M Stafford
Doug B
Footballguy
Going back a ways …
Steve Young left Calvin McGee and Gerald Walker behind in Tampa, and walked into a 49ers locker room with Jerry Rice and John Taylor.
Small sample size that first year in SF (three starts), but Young instantly doubled his Tampa Bay passer rating (~60 to 120). Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren helped, too, of course.
I get the idea. Let's take Kelce for example. I think everyone would agree he's a great TE and no matter where he played, he would be good. However, getting paired with Mahomes/Reid for these years has maximized his skills and production. Or we think McLaurin is super talented and if he had landed with the Chargers or Cowboys he might be viewed differently. I totally get that but I think this is true of literally every player. They all benefit from a positive situation and are hurt by a negative situation.So you think Josh Allen would do better on a team that was worse than the Bills? Does Josh Allen secretly want Diggs to miss time? Like this idea doesn't make sense at all.Presumably, the QBs listed above hurts on various lists.
I think he's saying some QBs benefit (or are hurt) by their team. Nobody is saying Allen wants the bills weapons to be worse.
It's the classic question every asks - how would the player do with a different cast. Brock Purdy in Pittsburgh is likely a different player.
Some players are less dependent on cast. I think that's what he's saying with Allen and I think that makes total sense.
Which is why for this exercise, I asked folks to rank them independent of their cast. Rank them as if you were a GM building a team for this year and you had no other players on the roster yet.
Sure. I think everyone gets that.
But some players are helped more than others. That's why I think when looking at these type of rankings, it's most helpful to try and view them independently of the team.
Interesting - I was talking about this same thing with some other people and many are shocked I don't have Tagovailoa in my top 10.
Tau837
Footballguy
The ones that already play well on lesser teams. For example, Herbert plays for a poor franchise, poor coaching staff, behind a shaky OL, and with one of the bottom defenses in the NFL, and this has all been true throughout his career.
wlwiles
Footballguy
Hurts and Tua are both ones that I debated very hard, and ultimately I think it's that they are in the best possible situation they could be in (best weapons around them), and in Hurts case, top defense behind him as well. Using my own analogy which is "what if you put them on a random team", I don't think either would do nearly as well.
For Hurts specifically, he'd end up with about 8 less TD's or something because no more Brotherly Shove. I don't dislike him, he'd be #11 or 12 for me, but the Eagles cover up a lot of his mistakes.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You take a lot of heat for having a rightful opinion
-I'm guilty, I went after Kirk in your thread earlier this week when i should have applauded you and mentioned all the ones I agree with but like many, I chose to discuss the guy I found ranked slightly lower than i would have had him. That's what makes this place great, is hearing others and what they think moving forward.
I don't know that I have a Top 10 handy off the top of my head but I wanted to show my support of both you and JB
This was an excellent way to spin out of some unneeded heat you take over your rankings.
You know MoP is a big fan, I'm happy JB did this, an excellent way to get discussion flowing.
You are a SP gem to just about all
Thanks you Trav
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I love Herbert. Always have. But I'm struggling with him. Everyone is in love with his arm. Rightfully so. Dude makes throws that very few can make. He can throw bullets into tight windows, especially deep out patterns. But something has been nagging me after watching him this year. And it's that he has one pitch. 4 seam fastball. I don't see the soft touch required on some throws. Sometimes doesn't put enough air under the ball. Everything is a line drive. He can learn it, but as of now I don't have him in the top tier. It's still potential more than actual results.
Tau837
Footballguy
It's tough to assess him over the past few games, since he has been playing with a fractured finger on his non-throwing hand. It has clearly affected him. Romo spent some time in their game last week talking about how impactful that injury would be. That said, I agree he has made some uncharacteristic overthrows this season; I can think of 3 just within the past couple weeks where he overthrew Allen for what would have been explosive plays. But I disagree that he has no touch, having seen him drop balls into small buckets requiring touch many times in the past.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Cousins and Stafford can be moved off this list.
Does anyone know how bad Stafford is hurt?
Does anyone know how bad Stafford is hurt?
Deamon
Footballguy
After today, I change my list.
1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Burrow
———————
4. Herbert
5. Hurts
———————
6. Jackson
7. Lawrence
———————
8. Goff
9. Tua
10. Rypien
babydemon90
Footballguy
I mean, how would Burrow be without Chase and Higgins? Tua without Hill? Allen without Stefan Diggs? Outside Mahomes, who imo is a clear #1 on any list, almost any QB is going to require weapons. How did AJ Brown do before he had Hurts? He was good, but...his numbers skyrocketed with Hurts.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
I don’t care about top 10 lists, but REAL football, I’d keep Hurts over everybody.
His skillset might not be the best out of the bunch, but they’re good enough. The thing you can’t replace is all the intangibles: mental toughness, leadership, understanding of the game, that Michael Jordan inner motivation to be the best. Dude’s obsessed with football, and has the work ethic to capitalize. He just wins.
His skillset might not be the best out of the bunch, but they’re good enough. The thing you can’t replace is all the intangibles: mental toughness, leadership, understanding of the game, that Michael Jordan inner motivation to be the best. Dude’s obsessed with football, and has the work ethic to capitalize. He just wins.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
He showed nice touch on intermediate passes today
Snoopy
Footballguy
Stafford is now considered "day to day".
