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QB Josh Allen, BUF (3 Viewers)

Statorama said:
People thought Ryan Leaf would be good
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I thought the evauation models people use would have come further by now. I guess: "wow he is really big and can throw the ball super far" is still about all some see. 

Also Leaf did have poor college accuracy, but at least he had massive production in a major conference. Leaf in his last year lead WSU to the Rose Bowl with 12 games, 3900 yards, 34 TDs and 11 Ints. Josh Allen led Wyoming to an 8-5 season with 11 games. 1900 yards, 17 TDs and 8 INTs. 

 
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Interesting Combine comparison.

Event: Josh Allen – Davis Webb

40: 4.75 – 4.79

Vertical: 33.5 – 33

Broad: 119 – 118

3-cone: 6.9 – 6.92

20 shuttle: 4.4 – 4.21

Height: 6’5’’ – 6’5’’

Weight: 237 – 229

MPH: 62 - 59

I read that Webb claims he can throw 75 yards with easy.  Obviously it very hard to compare their college careers since they played in drastically different style offenses.

 
Ilov80s said:
I thought the evauation models people use would have come further by now. I guess: "wow he is really big and can throw the ball super far" is still about all some see. 

Also Leaf did have poor college accuracy, but at least he had massive production in a major conference. Leaf in his last year lead WSU to the Rose Bowl with 12 games, 3900 yards, 34 TDs and 11 Ints. Josh Allen led Wyoming to an 8-5 season with 11 games. 1900 yards, 17 TDs and 8 INTs. 
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And by all accounts Allen is nowhere near the jagoff Leaf was/is, so he may be slightly more coachable

 
If my Q.B. to be played in the Mountain West Conference I would want him to have absolutely dominated the competition.  I would want a high completion percentage, after all he was throwing against chumps.  I see lots of folks say who was he throwing to.  I ask who was he throwing against?

I wish him well.  seems like a nice kid with his head on straight.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Why are you listening to what a paid consultant/coach is saying about his client?

Would you expect him to say "I did my best, but this kid still couldn't hit water in the middle of a lake"?
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It would have been nice if he had said that (the water part) about Hack before we drafted him!

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Why are you listening to what a paid consultant/coach is saying about his client?

Would you expect him to say "I did my best, but this kid still couldn't hit water in the middle of a lake"?
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By the same token, why would you assume he's lying?  Can you quote any of his past lies?

 
daveR said:
By the same token, why would you assume he's lying?  Can you quote any of his past lies?
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Seriously?

I don't assume he's lying, but I certainly would not rely on anything positive he has to say on this issue. It would be in his best interest to talk Allen up whether he believed it or not. If he said that nothing he did helped Allen to improve he'd be hurting his brand.

Would you expect Allen's agent to list Allen as the sixth best QB in this draft even if he honestly felt that way?

 
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voiceofunreason said:
Yeah too bad he couldn’t fix that 5 years ago in high school. It was such an easy fix. Who knew.
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College coaches are coaching for wins - and if a player can produce with flawed mechanics, so be it. Meyer’s staff didn’t bother working on Tebow’s delivery, for example. 

Now how fixable his issues are is a fair question. He looked plenty accurate at his pro-day, but of course he could revert to bad habits when the gunfire starts.  

My only point being that I don’t think we can assume his issues were being seriously addressed prior to this point in the process. Not at the college level and certainly not in high school. 

 
Oh yeah. Its easy for dime-a-dozen QB gurus to coach up these marvelous athletes:

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Garrett Ellwood/Getty Images

Since getting cut by the New England Patriots before the 2013 season, Tim Tebow has been working with quarterback guru Tom House.

House, a former MLB pitcher who's now a renowned private quarterbacks coach, has been effusive in his praise of Tebow, even before he signed with the Philadelphia Eagles in a one-year deal.

While it's not exactly surprising that House is hyping up his client, he's taking a bit of a reputational risk by declaring Tebow's broken throwing motion fixed.

Chip Kelly reportedly signed Tebow on an endorsement from House. If Tebow shows up to Eagles camp and is just as inaccurate as he was in 2013, it's House's status that's going to take a hit.

With that in mind, take a look at some of House's quotes about Tebow over the last month or so.

He told Albert Breer of NFL Network that Tebow is getting for a comeback.

"What amazes me is this young man, with no job prospects, has prepared just as hard as he would if he were the No. 1 quarterback for an NFL team," House said. "He's busted his butt. He spins the ball better than he did, and he's much more accurate than he was. I think he's ready."

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Seriously?

I don't assume he's lying, but I certainly would not rely on anything positive he has to say on this issue. It would be in his best interest to talk Allen up whether he believed it or not. If he said that nothing he did helped Allen to improve he'd be hurting his brand.

Would you expect Allen's agent to list Allen as the sixth best QB in this draft even if he honestly felt that way?
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Do you expect his future clients and NFL front offices to expect more than lies?  How would his reputation fare?  Surely he must have SOME sort of track record.

To answer your question, I would expect silence before lies.  BTW this isn't his agent talking. 

 
Catbird said:
Oh yeah. Its easy for dime-a-dozen QB gurus to coach up these marvelous athletes:

                                                                                         facebook linkedin twitter email copy link

Garrett Ellwood/Getty Images

Since getting cut by the New England Patriots before the 2013 season, Tim Tebow has been working with quarterback guru Tom House.

House, a former MLB pitcher who's now a renowned private quarterbacks coach, has been effusive in his praise of Tebow, even before he signed with the Philadelphia Eagles in a one-year deal.

While it's not exactly surprising that House is hyping up his client, he's taking a bit of a reputational risk by declaring Tebow's broken throwing motion fixed.

Chip Kelly reportedly signed Tebow on an endorsement from House. If Tebow shows up to Eagles camp and is just as inaccurate as he was in 2013, it's House's status that's going to take a hit.

With that in mind, take a look at some of House's quotes about Tebow over the last month or so.

He told Albert Breer of NFL Network that Tebow is getting for a comeback.

"What amazes me is this young man, with no job prospects, has prepared just as hard as he would if he were the No. 1 quarterback for an NFL team," House said. "He's busted his butt. He spins the ball better than he did, and he's much more accurate than he was. I think he's ready."
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Tebow had an awful, awful delivery. Allen, from what I've read, needed some footwork cleaned up. This is not an apples to apples comparison. 

Josh Allen's pro-day was freaky good. The kid has a nice release and can put the ball where he wants it. Whether he can do that in game is a valid question, but lets not lump him in with the Tebows and Youngs. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Why are you listening to what a paid consultant/coach is saying about his client?

Would you expect him to say "I did my best, but this kid still couldn't hit water in the middle of a lake"?
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Because it's showing up on the field. He went 9/13 with 2 (perfectly thrown) TDs at the Senior Bowl. He aced the combine drills, then improved on that by absolutely demolishing his pro-day. His mechanics are notably improved, both in game and out of it (this based on the results and what I've heard/read from multiple sources; I don't want to sound like I know enough about QB footwork to evaluate myself).

 
Concept Coop said:
Because it's showing up on the field. He went 9/13 with 2 (perfectly thrown) TDs at the Senior Bowl. He aced the combine drills, then improved on that by absolutely demolishing his pro-day. His mechanics are notably improved, both in game and out of it (this based on the results and what I've heard/read from multiple sources; I don't want to sound like I know enough about QB footwork to evaluate myself).
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I'm not saying it is or it isn't improved, but Palmer saying it would not convince me. He has to sell his student/client to sell himself.

I don't put any stock in pro days unless a QB looks bad (which is unusual). No QB prospect should look anything but stellar throwing a bunch of scripted routes against no pressure and no defenders.

I'm also not a QB scout nor adept at predicting their NFL success. I have concerns about Allen, but for all I know he could turn out to be the best in the class. I just wouldn't base any evaluation of him on what Jordan Palmer has to say or even his pro day. Admittedly he has the measurables to succeed and has a skill set that can't be taught and flaws that could be corrected - so there is something there.

 
Concept Coop said:
Because it's showing up on the field. He went 9/13 with 2 (perfectly thrown) TDs at the Senior Bowl. He aced the combine drills, then improved on that by absolutely demolishing his pro-day. His mechanics are notably improved, both in game and out of it (this based on the results and what I've heard/read from multiple sources; I don't want to sound like I know enough about QB footwork to evaluate myself).
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It is one game.  Christian Ponder was senior bowl MVP for what it is worth. 

If you don't like the Tim Tebow comparison how about Jake Locker, Logan Thomas, and Deshone Kizer.  All had flaws that NFL coaches could miraculously fix.  I would like to see Allen be the QB that proves the experts wrong but I have yet to see a QB drastically improve when he gets to play in the NFL.

 
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Donnybrook said:
It is one game.  Christian Ponder was senior bowl MVP for what it is worth. 

If you don't like the Tim Tebow comparison how about Jake Locker, Logan Thomas, and Deshone Kizer.  All had flaws that NFL coaches could miraculously fix.  I would like to see Allen be the QB that proves the experts wrong but I have yet to see a QB drastically improve when he gets to play in the NFL.
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Locker is a fair enough comparison, the others are pretty bad. (Logan Thomas?!)

What experts are you referring to? The hobby and analytics guys don't like Allen, but NFL employed experts seem to, almost universally. Even in the mock draft/TV crowd, Allen is a consensus top 10 player in this class. 

As for projects who worked out (in addition to the GOAT): McNair, Rodgers, Newton, Wentz, Farve, Vick, Ben, Flacco, Dak (early), Watson (early), Garrapolo (early). 

 
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Concept Coop said:
Tebow had an awful, awful delivery. Allen, from what I've read, needed some footwork cleaned up. This is not an apples to apples comparison. 

Josh Allen's pro-day was freaky good. The kid has a nice release and can put the ball where he wants it. Whether he can do that in game is a valid question, but lets not lump him in with the Tebows and Youngs. 
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56% of the time

 
Concept Coop said:
College coaches are coaching for wins - and if a player can produce with flawed mechanics, so be it. Meyer’s staff didn’t bother working on Tebow’s delivery, for example. 

Now how fixable his issues are is a fair question. He looked plenty accurate at his pro-day, but of course he could revert to bad habits when the gunfire starts.  

My only point being that I don’t think we can assume his issues were being seriously addressed prior to this point in the process. Not at the college level and certainly not in high school. 
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His 200 yards a game were so great they didn't want to mess with it? Sure.

 
Concept Coop said:
What experts are you referring to? The hobby and analytics guys don't like Allen, but NFL employed experts seem to, almost universally. Even in the mock draft/TV crowd, Allen is a consensus top 10 player in this class. 
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It’s like the difference between men and women choosing their partner.  Men choose a woman for who she is.  Women choose a man for who they think they can make them.

A lesson I’ve learned through a lot of trial and error in FF:  pick guys who have proven they can play football over guys with huge unreached potential.   Doesn’t always work out, but it seems to make for stronger teams overall in the long run.

.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
It’s like the difference between men and women choosing their partner.  Men choose a woman for who she is.  Women choose a man for who they think they can make them.

A lesson I’ve learned through a lot of trial and error in FF:  pick guys who have proven they can play football over guys with huge unreached potential.  
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There's a reason the league likes Allen a lot more than the folks pasting Excel cells into their blogs and Twitter feeds. 

Allen is raw, and even his supporters will tell you that. If you have a better use for your late 3rd, early 4th round rookie pick, by all means, pass. But Josh Allen is a fascinating, fascinating NFL prospect and I think there's a more nuanced conversation to be had. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
There's a reason the league likes Allen a lot more than the folks pasting Excel cells into their blogs and Twitter feeds. 

Allen is raw, and even his supporters will tell you that. If you have better a use for your late 3rd, early 4th round rookie pick, by all means, pass. But Josh Allen is a fascinating, fascinating NFL prospect and I think there's a more nuanced conversation to be had. 
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You’re so dismissive of the “folks”.  Have the league people shown over the course that they are that much better in determining who will or won’t succeed at the NFL level?  That is not my perception.

 
Bronco Billy said:
You’re so dismissive of the “folks”.  Have the league people shown over the course that they are that much better in determining who will or won’t succeed at the NFL level?  That is not my perception.
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Show me a single person or metric with a better success rate than NFL draft position as an indicator of future success, over any kind of sample size, that doesn't also take draft position into consideration. To answer your question: Yes. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Show me a single person or metric with a better success rate than NFL draft position as an indicator of future success, over any kind of sample size, that doesn't also take draft position into consideration. To answer your question: Yes. 
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You understand the amount of bias in that right? 

 
Concept Coop said:
Not sure I follow. Draft spot has a very strong correlation to NFL success. I haven't seen anything else come close to besting it, that doesn't also rely on it. 
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The guys that choose where the players are drafted also choose who gets the opportunities on the field. Of course the guys that NFL teams choose to draft earlier also get the most opportunities to play which means the most opportunities to be successful. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
The guys that choose where the players are drafted also choose who gets the opportunities on the field. Of course the guys that NFL teams choose to draft also get the most opportunities to play which means the most opportunities to be successful. 
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Your thesis doesn't hit home for me. For one, the people making the decisions on Sundays are, with few exceptions, not the same people who make the personnel decisions. Everyone involved in the process answers for their performance (save Jurry). Free agency and staff changes shuffle the deck frequently. You say NFL teams chose to grant more opportunity to the guys they draft -but they draft the guys in the later rounds as well. No human market is perfect, but the NFL is structured for ability to win out. 

And even if that were the case, that wouldn't change Allen's outlook, as the odds on favorite to be the top pick in the draft. Whether by merit or bias, he's getting his opportunity.

 
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In the end, Cleveland wouldn't be a bad spot for him.  No pressure to start right away and a decent receiving corps if he's thrust into action.  God help him if he hits the bright lights of either NY team.  The pressure will be enormous.

I think the Browns have been floating Josh Allen trial balloons in the media to see if there'd be a public tar and feathering of front office staff, but so far the response hasn't been passionate either way.

...and taking the guy with a bad track record but "tons of potential" number one overall seems like such a Browns thing to do

 
Concept Coop said:
Show me a single person or metric with a better success rate than NFL draft position as an indicator of future success, over any kind of sample size, that doesn't also take draft position into consideration. To answer your question: Yes. 
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I was going to say that I did see an article on rotoworld a year or so back that showed the fantasy community is actually better at predicting the success of NFL skill players (statistically) than the actual NFL draft.

But of course the fantasy community takes draft position into consideration as well.

As far as combine metrics or any other advanced stat out there trying t predict the success of the college players in the NFL, none that I know of are more predictive than the NFL draft.

 
Concept Coop said:
Not sure I follow. Draft spot has a very strong correlation to NFL success. I haven't seen anything else come close to besting it, that doesn't also rely on it. 
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So your position is that “folks” wouldn’t pick the same guys just as high with a similar success rate?  Care to back that up somehow?

 
Biabreakable said:
I was going to say that I did see an article on rotoworld a year or so back that showed the fantasy community is actually better at predicting the success of NFL skill players (statistically) than the actual NFL draft.

But of course the fantasy community takes draft position into consideration as well.

As far as combine metrics or any other advanced stat out there trying t predict the success of the college players in the NFL, none that I know of are more predictive than the NFL draft.
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Let me see if I understand this.  You're saying, on average, the best players are drafted ahead of lesser players?

 
I just think that every so often a kid like Allen comes along with a great attitude and a bazooka and much of the NFL comes to think accuracy can be taught - and it doesn't usually work. I think a lot of things can be taught, but I think passing accuracy is among the toughest. I see picking Allen first, when Darnold and Mayfield, at the very least, have such a clear advantage in accuracy and game management skills, will be yet another Brown's move that locks them into mediocrity until another opportunity comes along. Allen could be the guy who learns to transcend, but I think the odds are a lot, lot longer on Josh Allen than some of the other options. 

 
daveR said:
Let me see if I understand this.  You're saying, on average, the best players are drafted ahead of lesser players?
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No I wasn't saying that, but for the most part its true.

I would need to find the article again, but it was about how the value of draft picks and players fluctuates over the course of a season, it was a good read. A side bar of this analysis was that fantasy football ADP predicted the players level of performance more accurately than the NFL draft position did. The fantasy football community was able to identify players who may have been relatively high NFL draft picks who wouldn't put up very good statistics. So in that sense it was better at predicting which players would be good for fantasy football than the NFL draft was, which makes a bit of sense because the NFL teams are not drafting for fantasy football, and the FF community is considering all of the information available including why teams selected players where they did and how they fit into the team.

As far as other stuff like the combine metrics and so on, none of those things are more accurate than the NFL draft, which also makes sense because the NFL teams have considered all of that information in their decision to draft a player where they did. So while these types of analysis may be valid, its already baked in to the decision to draft the player. It lacks the information about the other reasons why the team made the decision that they did.

This is not to say the teams draft the players in the order that they should, they make mistakes and players do not pan out for all kinds of reasons that were unknown when the teams made their decision to draft those players.

 
It’s funny how the draft media has cycled through every qb since February as being #1. First, it was Allen, most physically gifted arm in the draft. If they go qb, it’s allen. But then it was mayfield for a brief week or so. He has “it.” But then it was “Rosen didn’t say he wouldn’t play for the browns” and so speculation that they could consider him. Until darnolds pro day. The whole front office was there. Now it’s back to allen. 

 
Bronco Billy said:
You’re so dismissive of the “folks”.  Have the league people shown over the course that they are that much better in determining who will or won’t succeed at the NFL level?  That is not my perception.
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Side bar...  I met Ray Farmer once when he was GM of the Browns.  Good guy, but I was expecting more.  I wanted to be blown away.  He seemed like "just a guy", like any of us.

 
Every one of these 'bad' comps are off the mark.

Tebow was a great college QB who won games on sheer will but he was never considered a top draft choice because he did not project to the NFL.  He also brought the 'circus' to town with him.

Logan Thomas, Christen Hackenberg, Nate Peterman?  Never in the conversation to be taken at the top of the draft.

Jamarcus Rusell?  Huge, big arm, no-brain automatic knee-jerk perfect comparison right?  Wrong.  Russell wasn't in a draft with any other top ranked QBs vying for the top pick.  His off-field work ethic?  Remember how he showed up to training camp at 270 lbs or how he tried making a comeback pushing 315 lbs?  And how about his other 'off-field' activities, purple drank ring any bells?  He got selected by Al Davis who drafted based primarily on physical attributes.  

If you are trying to compare this kid either in a good way or in a bad way you really can't.  He brings 'special' physical skills that few have ever brought who were top picks.  The guys who had 'somewhat similar' skills that made it had better completion percentages in college.  The ones who rose soley based on physical traits but had off-field issues failed primarily due to off field issues.

He is either going to make it or not based on whether or not he can become more accurate because that would be the reason why he'd fail.  The offense he ran with isolation routes and poor WRs is a reason why he was making constant double reads which put him under undue pressure (41% of the time he threw under pressure).  He still made a few 'what the heck' throws that could not be explained but a lot of his misses were from an offense that had a lot of rolling boot with an uncovered DE that he had to beat with his athleticism where he was throwing on the run and making half-field reads to one WR and those WRs did not get much separation and weren't great running routes and they dropped a lot of passes as well. 

People will say that a high amount of his passes were shorter and that is correct but they weren't designed throws, that was after the primary was covered and probably Josh had held the ball and was under pressure.  That offense rarely ran screens which is the bread-and-butter of QBs with high completion percentages.

He has a 'rare' gun.  The RPMs are off the chart.  That also adds to drops and when a high powered arm misses the release point the ball tends to go off target by a wider margin to make it look much worse.  

Bottom line, I don't like the good or bad comps because they really do not fit.  His number-1 issues is accuracy, nothing off-field, he's got more than one skill, it isn't just his big arm or his big brain, he's got rare ability to shed off large defenders and extend plays combined with athleticism to escape pressure to extend plays.  We're seeing something totally unique with this kid.  We haven't seen anything like him before.  He is writing a new chapter.

 
Bronco Billy said:
So your position is that “folks” wouldn’t pick the same guys just as high with a similar success rate?  Care to back that up somehow?
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My position is that, when the pros and the hobbyists disagree this strongly, I tend to lean with the pros. I don’t mean to discredit the hobbyists—I myself am one and a major consumer of their product. My point isn’t that pointing out the lack of success stories for players with Allen’s statistical likeness isn’t valuable. My point is that the pros have crafted a convincing argument for weighing other variables as well. Josh Allen is looking to be the top pick in the best QB class in a decade, by a respected GM—the same GM who drafted another project in Mahomes, whom the hobbyists are all over. But most of us are completely writing him off.

I just think Allen is a fascinating prospect worthy of a nuanced conversation, but instead we’re “lol56%.”

 
Concept Coop said:
My position is that, when the pros and the hobbyists disagree this strongly, I tend to lean with the pros. I don’t mean to discredit the hobbyists—I myself am one and a major consumer of their product. My point isn’t that pointing out the lack of success stories for players with Allen’s statistical likeness isn’t valuable. My point is that the pros have crafted a convincing argument for weighing other variables as well. Josh Allen is looking to be the top pick in the best QB class in a decade, by a respected GM—the same GM who drafted another project in Mahomes, whom the hobbyists are all over. But most of us are completely writing him off.

I just think Allen is a fascinating prospect worthy of a nuanced conversation, but instead we’re “lol56%.”
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Thanks for the good response.

My issue with Allen is twofold:  1) The 56% bothers me more because of how bad some of the throws and the decisions were much more than being in and of the number itself, and 2) that people are excusing his inaccuracy due to his lack of quality receivers.  That latter excuse bothers me because it sounds like those people really haven’t seen him play and haven’t seen the types of performance in concern 1) and also bothers me because top QBs at their level don’t need excuses like that - they make the players surrounding them better and put in the effort to work through those kinds of issues.  That and I’m guessing there aren’t going to be a lot of DBs drafted highly - if at all - out of that conference.  That’s a lousy excuse IMO that goes back on the QB himself.

 
Concept Coop said:
Your thesis doesn't hit home for me. For one, the people making the decisions on Sundays are, with few exceptions, not the same people who make the personnel decisions. Everyone involved in the process answers for their performance (save Jurry). Free agency and staff changes shuffle the deck frequently. You say NFL teams chose to grant more opportunity to the guys they draft -but they draft the guys in the later rounds as well. No human market is perfect, but the NFL is structured for ability to win out. 

And even if that were the case, that wouldn't change Allen's outlook, as the odds on favorite to be the top pick in the draft. Whether by merit or bias, he's getting his opportunity.
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There is a bias that shades the statistical correlation between draft slot and NFL success. You can say you don’t buy it but theres nothing to buy. It’s just a textbook case of statistical bias. I’m not saying it totally ruins the connection but the bias is obvious. The coaches have input into who is selected and the GMs have input into who plays as well. Those roles on most teams are not totally separate. Those people talk, share opinions, etc. 

 
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Snorkelson said:
It’s funny how the draft media has cycled through every qb since February as being #1. First, it was Allen, most physically gifted arm in the draft. If they go qb, it’s allen. But then it was mayfield for a brief week or so. He has “it.” But then it was “Rosen didn’t say he wouldn’t play for the browns” and so speculation that they could consider him. Until darnolds pro day. The whole front office was there. Now it’s back to allen. 
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Have to keep the ratings up with new stories and developments. 

 
Bronco Billy said:
My issue with Allen is twofold:  1) The 56% bothers me more because of how bad some of the throws and the decisions were much more than being in and of the number itself, and 2) that people are excusing his inaccuracy due to his lack of quality receivers.  That latter excuse bothers me because it sounds like those people really haven’t seen him play and haven’t seen the types of performance in concern 1) and also bothers me because top QBs at their level don’t need excuses like that - they make the players surrounding them better and put in the effort to work through those kinds of issues.  That and I’m guessing there aren’t going to be a lot of DBs drafted highly - if at all - out of that conference.  That’s a lousy excuse IMO that goes back on the QB himself.
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You are irritated but you do not mean that bringing up his WRs is a reason why he'd fail. 

I think the primary reason why he would fail is based on whether or not he can improve his accuracy.  

I brought up his WRs because Klatt brought it up in an in-depth film dissection and he got very heated about the performance of Wyoming's WRs.  He 'might' know something about who would be responsible for an in-completion and he was irritated with his WRs and brought up multiple issues, running wrong routes, running poor routes, and poor WR skill of not positioning the body to the ball where he showed more than a few clips of his WRs not squaring up their body but throwing their arms backwards to make awkward attempts at balls that should have been caught.  You can claim that as an excuse but Klatt doesn't like Allen and wasn't going out of his way to make any excuses.  He was generally hot when he brought up this issue because he used to be a QB and he probably had to eat criticism that should have been directed at a WR.  

NFL teams have not automatically dismissed Allen due to poor accuracy in a draft that has three other top ranked QBs with high accuracy.  I took note and the interest made ME take a second look to see what all of the fuss is about.  He will be taken based on skills that can be compared but their isn't any direct comparison that fits 'good or bad'.  You can automatically dismiss him based on accuracy and that is the main reason why I think he could fail but NFL teams are not dismissing him which makes me take a second look at the reason why they are interested and the team that takes him will select him because they believe he won't fail and their are reasons why they think that and if they are right it won't be an excuse for his poor accuracy, it will be one of the reasons.

 
Ilov80s said:
There is a bias that shades the statistical correlation between draft slot and NFL success. You can say you don’t buy it but theres nothing to buy. It’s just a textbook case of statistical bias. I’m not saying it totally ruins the connection but the bias is obvious. The coaches have input into who is selected and the GMs have input into who plays as well. Those roles on most teams are not totally separate. Those people talk, share opinions, etc. 
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We’ll have to disagree on the relevance of said bias.  

But even if you’re right, it doesn’t help your argument. Either way - by merit or bias - draft pedigree correlates to NFL success. That was my point.

 
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