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QB Josh Allen, BUF (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
This guy is in the conversation for number one overall. Why didn’t his team throw more? Stats seem light for a small school guy who is highly regarded.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Osaurus
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If only Dan Orlovsky had a Dan Orlovsky to point out his flaws.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm holding out for Giovanni Carmazzi's opinion.
rockaction
Footballguy
Dan Orlovsky? 
He's the UConn guy who ran out of his own end zone in the pros. OMG.
I guess he can look at tape, but that's funny.
He's the UConn guy who ran out of his own end zone in the pros. OMG.
I guess he can look at tape, but that's funny.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
He had an 11 year career with 5 teams. I doubt they’ve been keeping him around because he’s a dummy that throws far.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Also, I am far more willing to listen to Orlovsky’s opinion than Peter King, Chris Simms and Mel Kiper Jr.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's fair, but no team actually kept him around longer than 2 years.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I think it goes without saying that he wasn’t a good QB, lol. That hasn’t stopped a lot of guys from having long careers holding a clipboard.
Humor appreciated. But there are pleny of QBs out there who are experts on the whiteboard, can break it all down on the field, but just can't do it at game speed. These guys are terrible players, but can easily turn around and make great analysts, evaluators and (somtimes) coaches.
Just like the best playes ofen have trouble coaching because so much is instinct that they don't have to think about it as they do it, so can't as easily explain it back to someone...
-OZ-
Footballguy
Absolutely. And I wasn't really being insulting when I asked when did he become an expert. For all I know he could be the next great coach. His career looks a lot like Doug pederson.
Yep.
In all seriousness, he seemed like a decent guy. Just not someone whose name carries a lot of weight right now. Maybe that will change soon.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
You should have seen Howie Roseman play QBDan Orlovsky?
He's the UConn guy who ran out of his own end zone in the pros. OMG.
I guess he can look at tape, but that's funny.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Running list of NFL commentators heaping praise on Josh Allen:
Chris Simms: Josh Allen “safest” QB in class
Mike Mayock: Just as talented as Wentz also compared him to Marino/Elway
Mel Kiper Jr.: Stats are for losers; the kid won
Charley Casserly: This guy has Carson Wentz talent
Louis Riddick: When I first saw him standing tall in the pocket with those white socks, if you put a 13 on him...
Hey, maybe they’re right... looking at Marino’s senior year I would have been swearing a lot if my team drafted him in this day and age (23 INT’s 2 years in a row, no season over 60% completion). I still don’t think with the volatility of his play he should be in the realm of top 5 in the draft, let alone #1 overall.
Chris Simms: Josh Allen “safest” QB in class
Mike Mayock: Just as talented as Wentz also compared him to Marino/Elway
Mel Kiper Jr.: Stats are for losers; the kid won
Charley Casserly: This guy has Carson Wentz talent
Louis Riddick: When I first saw him standing tall in the pocket with those white socks, if you put a 13 on him...
Hey, maybe they’re right... looking at Marino’s senior year I would have been swearing a lot if my team drafted him in this day and age (23 INT’s 2 years in a row, no season over 60% completion). I still don’t think with the volatility of his play he should be in the realm of top 5 in the draft, let alone #1 overall.
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He probably knows more about evaluating talent than you do.Dan Orlovsky?
He's the UConn guy who ran out of his own end zone in the pros. OMG.
I guess he can look at tape, but that's funny.
rockaction
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I do like Mayock and Riddick a lot - the rest not so much (well I like Kiper for his overall knowledge on players, not his evaluations).
This at least gives me some hope if my Jets end up with Allen. I'm still hoping that he either goes at No. 1 or they pass at 3 though.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not only was the NFL a different game then, as far as what defensive backs could get away with, but Marino also threw deep more than most QBs at the time.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
And they all say the same thing. He has the talent. But many NFL players have the talent, but that doesn't make him successful. How is that talent going to translate to the NFL level? I think he's a bust. The scouts and media get so fascinated with talent that they overlook the most important piece in evaluating a football player: can they play football?
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’ll say the one saving grace for Allen is that he needs time. So if the Browns are the one to bite the bullet they have Tyrod and Stanton in place to say their rookie QB is going to sit all year. The problem with that is, is that it doesn’t happen anymore and it’s inefficient from a team building standpoint with the new cap. If you find a capable QB the most cap room you’ll ever have is during their first 5 years in the league. That’s why you see LA going all in, Philly going all in and Chicago/KC going on a spending spree for offensive assets.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
And guys like Mayock do not seem to learn from past mistakes such as having Teddy Bridgewater as his 1st overall QB before the pro day then his 5th QB after his pro day. Yeah mmkay.
Just reading some of the comments supporting Allen in this thread, it seems like folks are willing to give Allen a pass or make excuses for his lack of accuracy but they will not give Lamar Jackson similar treatment even though he is likely more deserving (receivers dropped more of his passes than Allen).
As always seems to come down to being tall and having a rocket arm. Other skills and abilities do not seem to carry much water compared to these two traits.
ZWK
Footballguy
Marino played in a different era. His junior year he was 8th in college football in completion percentage (at 59.5%), whereas Josh Allen peaked at 87th out of 112 players in completion percentage at 56.3% (min 200 attempts). Then in the NFL Marino was in the top 5 in completion percentage in 3 out of his first 4 seasons (3rd with 64.2%, 4th with 59.3%, 5th with 60.7%).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I personally disagree. I'm no scout, obviously, but I loved seeing the touch and accuracy. It lends credibility to the notion that his accuracy can be coached up - as he's obviously able to put the ball where he wants to in a controlled environment. It's certainly fair - and I'd argue wise - to heavily weigh his in game performance, which left a lot to be desired. But in a fantasy land where I'm making the call on this kid, I'm absolutely encouraged by the incredible pro performance. He's making big strides during the pre-draft process - and that matters to me.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Fran Duffy @fduffy3
We covered a TON of ground on this week's Journey To The Draft Podcast. @LanceZierlein dropped a knowledge bomb or seven (listen if you're a #Browns fan), @cmaceagles and I debate six players who may be too good to pass up at 32, and a lot more
http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/videos/audio/Journey-To-The-Draft-Lance-Zierleins-Draft-Bombs/4fe9f5e5-43a5-4f25-aca1-8634ac2caddf
(Go to the 16:15 mark of this audio to hear what Zierlien has heard about the top pick not what everyone is expecting with Sam Darnold but is Josh Allen for the top pick of the draft)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure the guy being paid to train him is the best source for an honest evaluation.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Fixed it in a couple of weeks. Funny he didn’t do it five years earlier, it’s just so easy.
daveR
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
So Evan Silva and Graham Barfield were posting on twitter that they found out that back in JUCO he had a 49% completion percentage and also never achieved over, I believe, a 55% completion percentage in high school. The point being isn’t that the guy doesn’t have physical tools but that had he went to a big 5 school he would have been a backup. He would be viewed in the same fashion as Cardale Jones (who I actually believe is his closest comp). He has NFL tools but he can not and will not step into an NFL offense and be good. If he succeeds it will be years of work. He is not worthy of a top pick unless you want to work with him on the bench through the majority of his rookie contract. That is not how NFL teams should be constructed with rookie contracts. NFL teams need their QB to develop and be competent quickly to put them in a position to get to the Super Bowl while they can still build a competent defense and being able to afford weapons before the massive QB extention that position gets.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I agree with everything you say about having to develop him and how it will be a lengthy process but Cardale Jones isn't a good comparison IMHO.
I won't go into detail other than to say that 12-gauge had a very-troubled background which possibly led to the off-field issues he experinced (again you either know about them or can look them up). Probably the biggest difference was that he wasn't a leader at Ohio State and that is why Urban Meyer went with T.J. Barrett even though Cardale had incredible physical skills.
If you heard the latest audible from the other night Cecil Lammey and Sigmond Bloom gave their take on Josh Allen and they mentioned his biggest issue which is accuracy. They mentioned other QBs taken high in the draft who overcame accuracy issues over time.
It was interesting. I did not realize that Matt Ryan and Mathew Stafford overcame accuracy issues. I just assumed they came in with good accuracy. LINK go to the 25:00 minute mark where they cover Allen. They also agree with you in that it will take time but they have a different comp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr3sqzI6yL8
Footballguys TV
Streamed live on Apr 12, 2018
Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman and Dr. Jene Bramel go over the latest news from around the NFL and NFL draft.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
If their take is that Allen is close to Ryan or Stafford, I disagree. Not that it matters but I saw most of what Cardale did in college and I’ve watched multiple of Allen’s games. It’s not just the accuracy it’s the decision making. I would say his plus is that when the play breaks down and he’s ad libbing, that’s when he’s at his best. I feel like Cardale was very, very similar and possibly more impressive than Allen when he was on his title run (though I think Allen has more “flash” type plays). Both of them are way above average athletes, cannons and massively struggle with placement and seemed to misunderstand where their safety outlets are. Both can scramble but both didn’t have a great feel for the pocket. I guess my argument is that given the level of his competition and how raw he is, he isn’t Stafford or Ryan. Ryan, for instance, played since he was a freshman and posted two seasons over 60%. Stafford also played since he was a freshman and his last season was over 60% as well. Allen’s completetion went up .3% (56.3%) and his YPA dropped by almost two full yards. Even his most ardent defenders are hard pressed to suggest he didn’t regress his JR year while Stafford progressed all three of his years and Ryan progressed until his SR year where he displayed some regression (but at that point was already clear cut as a top prospect). I’m trying to mature in how I view prospects, after all they and me are human, so it’s not personal how I feel about Allen and I think it’s bad for fantasy and the NFL to having players fail. I just feel like Allen would be better served to not go in the first. Stafford and Ryan were both thrown to the fire. Ryan did well and Stafford was horrid. If Allen goes in the early first he will play next year and I think it will be detrimental to him as he needs to learn how to read defenses on top of adjusting his throw velocity and mechanics. Hey, I could be wrong though. He’s apparently a smart guy so it’s possible he learns the position as he goes.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
He stepped in cold and won 3 straight to win a (Meyer's only, so far) National Championship and he beat out Barrett the following Spring. Meyer went back to Barrett because Ohio State almost lost a couple of his games and the fans in Columbus fry head coaches alive for less than that. Barret was no better a pass than Jones, he just ran Meyer's offense so much better.
Cardale's off-field was petty stuff - a couple of stupid tweets and comments. Nowhere near what you're painting him out as. His problem was experience, and that's why he got drafted so late. I think Cardale is a really good comp except Allen has a lot more experience. The difference will be if he can fix his mechanical issues. Sure, you can look like your footwork is improved in shorts during a scripted performance but hey, ballerinas look good with that much practice all the time. The question is what he can do when under durress, when muscle memory kicks in and years of (bad) reps take over. That just takes a ton of time to develop and re-train the body that way.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I can see the Cardale Jones comparison. I like Cardale Jones because if he did ever put it together I think he would be a very good QB.
Allen is likely better than Jones has shown to be in the NFL so far I just don't think he is the best QB in this draft class.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The decision making added to the accuracy issue because he'd 'double-check' his WRs looking further downfield instead of pulling the trigger sooner which also lead to him being under pressure on 41% of his snaps and it went higher when he faced higher competition and a lot of that was brought upon himself.
Cecil was pointing out QBs taken high in the draft who had overcome accuracy issues and how they needed time. He wasn't making any direct comps to Allen just pointing out QBs taken high in the draft who overcame accuracy issues. Cecil noted the Browns had traded for Tyrod and picked up Stanton which would provide time to sit a rookie.
The Wyoming Cowboys operate a Pro-Set offense and rarely ran screens which would inflate his completion percentage. They had him rolling and making half-reads and he is very-good making throws on the run where they'd leave a DE uncovered and have Josh beat him and he did a very-good job rolling away from pressure.
Josh also has an exceptional ability to shake off large defenders to extend the play and can take shots that would put many QBs out of a game. Cecil and Sigmond said it reminded them of Ben Roethisberger and if you see him in action it is even better than Big Ben. Sig noted that Big Ben used to try and extend plays because of his big body and it took him awhile to break from that pattern and he noted that the guy who broke Ben of that bad habit was Todd Haley, the guy the Browns hired as their new OC.
I brought up the backgrounds because they are night-and-day. I'm assuming you know of Josh Allen's background of working on a farm in a small town with his work ethic firmly grounded and that he scored very high on the Wonderlic. Cardale's background was less disciplined and not grounded. He was sent to a military academy and he clashed.
https://www.si.com/college-football/2015/01/08/cardale-jones-ohio-state-military-school
I think that teams are intrigued by more than the arm or the brain of Allen. They like his leadership, the off-field work ethic, and he's a good guy from everything I've seen. I think they don't see him as he is now but how he can develop. Teams feel comfortable with him, they truly seem to like him. I think many would want to work with him just from a physical aspect but from what I've picked up teams just like the kid.
You and I have nothing personal at stake with Josh Allen but the guys who draft him have to know he's going to work well with the guys who are going to coach him so I would have to think personality comes into play.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I suppose it’s fair to bring up backgrounds of the players. It’s definitely not something I weigh in as a casual observer but I can see NFL teams taking stock in it. @Biabreakable is right to probably assess that Allen is a better prospect and, in the least, will get more of an opportunity than Jones has had. You hit the nail on the head though with why I compare him to Jones: if he puts it together he’s a top level QB. Let’s not forget that Waldman had Jones #1 based on ceiling alone. I haven’t (and probably won’t) purchased the RSP this year but if Waldman hasn’t changed I would assess that he views Allen or Darnold in the same fashion. Using their ceiling as the jumping off point for his evaluation.
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