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QB Josh Allen, BUF (1 Viewer)

Size and measurables from the combine have him somewhere in the area of Carson Wentz, or a poor mans Cam Newton.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-allen?id=32462018-0002-5600-29bc-8750224414bd

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/carson-wentz?id=2555259

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cam-newton?id=2495455

Cam has a career 58.5% comp %, Wentz to this point in the NFL is at 61.5. If you believe that some of Allens woes in this category are not his fault and he might be slightly better than his numbers show, maybe he is around the Newton mark or between in theory. So you have a guy who profiles between the two athletically and maybe statistically? Could be very promising.

 
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Concept Coop said:
My position is that, when the pros and the hobbyists disagree this strongly, I tend to lean with the pros. I don’t mean to discredit the hobbyists—I myself am one and a major consumer of their product. My point isn’t that pointing out the lack of success stories for players with Allen’s statistical likeness isn’t valuable. My point is that the pros have crafted a convincing argument for weighing other variables as well. Josh Allen is looking to be the top pick in the best QB class in a decade, by a respected GM—the same GM who drafted another project in Mahomes, whom the hobbyists are all over. But most of us are completely writing him off.

I just think Allen is a fascinating prospect worthy of a nuanced conversation, but instead we’re “lol56%.”
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There is no consensus of pros (as you call them) that Allen is the number rated QB in this class.   Daniel Jeremiah, Todd Mcshay, Joe Klatt, and Louis Riddick are people that I consider pros (at least more than hobbyists) and none rate Allen as the top prospect.  I don't think people are "completely writing him off" but skeptical that he will be successful just because he has all the measurables.  We are questioning whether he is worth of the number 1 pick that is all.

 
Donnybrook said:
There is no consensus of pros (as you call them) that Allen is the number rated QB in this class.   Daniel Jeremiah, Todd Mcshay, Joe Klatt, and Louis Riddick are people that I consider pros (at least more than hobbyists) and none rate Allen as the top prospect.  I don't think people are "completely writing him off" but skeptical that he will be successful just because he has all the measurables.  We are questioning whether he is worth of the number 1 pick that is all.
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That's not the conversation I'm chiming in on. I specifically referred to his status as a top 10 player as nearly universal; not the top overall player/pick. 

Edit: I'm also skeptical. I'm just intrigued, think that the interest he's getting is a big data point in his favor, and am not writing him off.  

 
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Donnybrook said:
There is no consensus of pros (as you call them) that Allen is the number rated QB in this class.   Daniel Jeremiah, Todd Mcshay, Joe Klatt, and Louis Riddick are people that I consider pros (at least more than hobbyists) and none rate Allen as the top prospect.  I don't think people are "completely writing him off" but skeptical that he will be successful just because he has all the measurables.  We are questioning whether he is worth of the number 1 pick that is all.
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I definitely see people writing him off

 
Pwingles said:
Size and measurables from the combine have him somewhere in the area of Carson Wentz, or a poor mans Cam Newton.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-allen?id=32462018-0002-5600-29bc-8750224414bd

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/carson-wentz?id=2555259

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cam-newton?id=2495455

Cam has a career 58.5% comp %, Wentz to this point in the NFL is at 61.5. If you believe that some of Allens woes in this category are not his fault and he might be slightly better than his numbers show, maybe he is around the Newton mark or between in theory. So you have a guy who profiles between the two athletically and maybe statistically? Could be very promising.
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Wentz is interesting because he wasn't very good as rookie, but in his 2nd year he really performed well but I wonder what the rest of his career looks like because that 7.5% TD rate isn't likely something he he can replicate (was at 2.5 his rookie year).That is even higher than Matt Ryan's insane 2016 7.2% rate. As for Cam, he is NOT a great passer (season averages is 3500/23/13) but obviously he is made great by his rushing (600/8). I don't think we can expect Allen to be a Cam Newton like presence as a rusher. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
We’ll have to disagree on the relevance of said bias.  

But even if you’re right, it doesn’t help your argument. Either way - by merit or bias - draft pedigree correlates to NFL success. That was my point.
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That is fine. I think there is a debate on the relevance of the bias. It comes to down the level of trust one has in NFL GMs and Coaches. If you have full faith that their decisions are the best decisions that can possibly be made about player evaluation, then it is fair to toss out the bias. I also agree that if you don't care about the why and just the outcome, NFL draft pedigree does correlate to success more than other metrics.

 
Donnybrook said:
There is no consensus of pros (as you call them) that Allen is the number rated QB in this class.   Daniel Jeremiah, Todd Mcshay, Joe Klatt, and Louis Riddick are people that I consider pros (at least more than hobbyists) and none rate Allen as the top prospect.  I don't think people are "completely writing him off" but skeptical that he will be successful just because he has all the measurables.  We are questioning whether he is worth of the number 1 pick that is all.
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I don't know that any of the QBs are without flaws.  Having said that, when comparing positive traits, Allen could land on top.  As a Browns fan, I like his size & arm which are likely to come into play when the weather becomes iffy.  I also think it makes him less likely to succumb to injury. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Wentz is interesting because he wasn't very good as rookie, but in his 2nd year he really performed well but I wonder what the rest of his career looks like because that 7.5% TD rate isn't likely something he he can replicate (was at 2.5 his rookie year).That is even higher than Matt Ryan's insane 2016 7.2% rate. As for Cam, he is a good passer (season averages is 3500/23/13) but obviously he is made great by his rushing (600/8). I don't think we can expect Allen to be a Cam Newton like presence as a rusher. 
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may be the first person to describe him as that lol

 
Ilov80s said:
That is fine. I think there is a debate on the relevance of the bias. It comes to down the level of trust one has in NFL GMs and Coaches. If you have full faith that their decisions are the best decisions that can possibly be made about player evaluation, then it is fair to toss out the bias. I also agree that if you don't care about the why and just the outcome, NFL draft pedigree does correlate to success more than other metrics.
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I think this is a very interesting discussion.  To point, one example that just jumps out is DEN and the RB situation.  You’ve got CJA who DEN seemed like they could not wait to part ways with despite being a 1,000 yd rusher, a good receiver, and a good team guy.  You’ve got Henderson who has shown some tantalizing ability and who teammates and media marvel at when they see him run, but neither was a draft darling.  Who does management keep trying to force into the lead role?  Booker, who has gotten a chance to shine and did almost nothing with it and has looked pretty poor in both preseason and regular season work.  Why?  One can only think it’s because of the draft slot they spent on him and management ego that is tilting the scales.

Don’t mean to derail the discussion, but I think bias and opportunity are very real.  .

 
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Bronco Billy said:
I think this is a very interesting discussion.  To point, one example that just jumps out is DEN and the RB situation.  You’ve got CJA who DEN seemed like they could not wait to part ways with despite being a 1,000 yd rusher, a good receiver, and a good team guy.  You’ve got Henderson who has shown some tantalizing ability and who teammates and media marvel at when they see him run, but neither was a draft darling.  Who does management keep trying to force into the lead role?  Booker, who has gotten a chance to shine and did almost nothing with it and has looked pretty poor in both preseason and regular season work.  Why?  One can only think it’s because of the draft slot they spent on him and management ego that is tilting the scales.

Don’t mean to derail the discussion, but I think bias and opportunity are very real.  .
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Even though I mostly disagree on CJ, I agree with you that bias and opportunity are connected to some level (not sure it could ever be untangled and measured though). Also, I think Denver is a good spot to examine this because on one hand, the Elway administration won a SB and on the other, it seems like he has no clue what he is doing. His drafting might be the worst in the NFL. 

 
Have guys seen his 2014 take from Readley Community College? 49% completion percentage!

J/k about the tape part but I wonder what that offense looked like 

 
What does John look for in a QB? 

  • Winning from the pocket.
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/19/broncos-nfl-draft-lets-make-a-deal-kiszla/
 

...Elway swears he has evolved as a general manager. Hey, we all learn from our mistakes

.... I’ve learned a lot since I’ve been doing this job, as far as what certain quarterbacks have success with,” Elway said Thursday.

So what’s the bottom line for Elway when projecting a QB’s ability to succeed in the NFL?

“I believe the one thing is that you’ve got to be able to win from the pocket. No matter what you do, I think the one thing that I’ve learned is as a quarterback, you’ve got to be able to win it from the pocket,” Elway said. “You can win games, but you can’t win championships, unless you have the ability to win from the pocket.”
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How NFL scouts define operating from the pocket:  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1632018-how-do-scouts-break-down-nfl-quarterback-prospects 

Pocket presence isn’t mobility; it’s the ability to see and feel pressure. Tom Brady is one of the slower quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s able to feel and see pressure and step up in the pocket or slide away from pass-rushers to keep the play alive. Same for Peyton Manning. You don’t have to be a runner to be able to recognize blitzes and broken plays to stay away from pass-rushers. Does mobility help? Yes, but it’s not required for a quarterback to have that “it” factor when reading the defense and feeling pressure in the pocket.

The second part to pocket presence is the ability to move when you feel that pressure.
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Some think Josh Allen has slow feet and can't feel pressure and/or that he reacts to phantom pressure and other reports say he has great footwork and climbs the pocket. 

21 year old kids who are 6'4 have only been that size for a few years and are still learning their bodies.  They are not as agile in short space, i.e., the pocket but can improve hence their is a disparity of Josh Allen's ability to operate in the pocket. 

Instead of choosing one side I think the truth is somewhere in the middle.  He has slow feet and he does feel phantom pressure due to the high amount of pressure he faced but he climbs the pocket and side steps pressure.

The best pocket passer from this draft is Josh Rosen so if Elway moves-up then he could be the target, 'jes say'n.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
He's drafted Brock Osweiler in Round 2, Paxton Lynch in Round 1 and signed Case Keenum for $20MM per year (Admittedly that could work out of course) - not exactly a stellar track record.
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The article begins by saying the Broncos could trade the #5 pick and could go up or down but then Elway admits his mistakes on taking QBs that reminded him of himself.  The big strong-armed QBs like Os and Pax and how he learned from those mistakes and that he's looking for a QB who wins from the pocket.https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/19/broncos-nfl-draft-lets-make-a-deal-kiszla/ 

...Elway swears he has evolved as a general manager. Hey, we all learn from our mistakes, especially when they’re  XXL boo-boos as unforgettable as Brock Osweiler (oops) or Paxton Lynch (ouch).

...When Elway took over as architect of the Broncos roster back in 2011, he looked for the next Elway, or a reasonable facsimile, when evaluating college quarterbacks. 

But at age 57, a championship ring from Super Bowl 50 allows Elway to laugh at the mistakes every general manager inevitably makes in the draft. When looking for a quarterback, does he still seek a big arm and broad shoulders?

“I was a lot more six or seven years ago. But then we had Peyton (Manning), right? Peyton was more of the cerebral type. I’ve learned a lot since I’ve been doing this job, as far as what certain quarterbacks have success with,” Elway said Thursday.

So what’s the bottom line for Elway when projecting a QB’s ability to succeed in the NFL?

“I believe the one thing is that you’ve got to be able to win from the pocket. No matter what you do, I think the one thing that I’ve learned is as a quarterback, you’ve got to be able to win it from the pocket,” Elway said. “You can win games, but you can’t win championships, unless you have the ability to win from the pocket.”
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He says 'win from the pocket' three times.  That is a classic example of being on-point.

 
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Bracie Smathers said:
The article begins by saying the Broncos could trade the #5 pick and could go up or down but then Elway admits his mistakes on taking QBs that reminded him of himself.  The big strong-armed QBs like Os and Pax and how he learned from those mistakes and that he's looking for a QB who wins from the pocket.https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/19/broncos-nfl-draft-lets-make-a-deal-kiszla/ 

He says 'win from the pocket' three times.  That is a classic example of being on-point.
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Interesting because he then signs Case - who doesn't have a strong arm but throws on the move from outside the pocket often. 

He also said if he stays at 5 he'll take "best player available". I don't think they take a QB - I think they give Case a two year audition to see if he has a future, but obviously it's not out of the realm of possibility they take a QB. If the Giants truly don't want a QB and Denver does they would make good trade partners because the Giants still get one of the three players they covet, Barkley, Chubb and Nelson at 5. 

This is one of the more intriguing drafts in a while because of these QBs and some otherwise top talents available.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Interesting because he then signs Case - who doesn't have a strong arm but throws on the move from outside the pocket often. 

He also said if he stays at 5 he'll take "best player available". I don't think they take a QB - I think they give Case a two year audition to see if he has a future, but obviously it's not out of the realm of possibility they take a QB. If the Giants truly don't want a QB and Denver does they would make good trade partners because the Giants still get one of the three players they covet, Barkley, Chubb and Nelson at 5. 

This is one of the more intriguing drafts in a while because of these QBs and some otherwise top talents available.
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Case was the only viable FA QB left.  He wanted Cousins but couldn't afford him.

I think that at the top of the draft it will go one of two ways depending on what Dorsey does  with the top pick.

1.  Cleveland takes Darnold so the Giants trade-down with Denver who take Rosen which leaves Mayfield for the Jets

2.  Cleveland takes Allen and the Giants take Darnold and the Jets take Rosen

What happens at the top directly effects the #4 pick IMHO because I think the Bills would move up  to #4 if Allen is available.

 
Case played really good last year. I’m not sure QB is a huge weakness. If I were Denver, I’d do everything I could to trade back since they have so many holes to fill. 

 
Browns GM John Dorsey said during his pre-draft press conference he thinks "hand size is important" when looking for a quarterback.

It's possible foreshadowing as the Browns have continuously been linked to Wyoming QB Josh Allen, who has the largest hand size among quarterbacks in this year's class, with the No. 1 overall pick. "You'll laugh at me when I say it, but I think hand size is important,'' Dorsey said. "Hand size in November and December, when it's snowing, raining, it's getting muddy...We all know the elements in Cleveland are going to play a role." Dorsey also went out of his way to acknowledge the Browns are making sure Sam Darnold, who fumbled 21 times in 24 starts at USC, has adequate hand size to hang on to the football in AFC North stadiums late in the season. "You worry about that sometimes," he said. Cleveland has reportedly "considered" drafting a quarterback with both the No. 1 and No. 4 overall picks.
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Dr. Octopus said:
Browns GM John Dorsey said during his pre-draft press conference he thinks "hand size is important" when looking for a quarterback.
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Sure, it is part of the puzzle.

If anything it is a bit damning of Sam Darnold which would narrow the top pick down quite a bit if you believe hand size tips the scales but I don't think Dorsey is announcing his pick by proxy of hand size.  

 
Faust said:
2018 NFL Draft: Selecting Josh Allen Would Be A Fatal Mistake For The Cleveland Browns
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Lol, when the author states "More recently, a comparison could be made to Blake Bortles (2014) and Mitch Trubisky (2017). Both were divisive prospects, and neither has proven himself to be a franchise quarterback of yet." 

Mitch Trubisky was drafted last year....Pretty poor choice since I don't think we normally say someone is a franchise QB with only a half a season of experience.

 
Ksquared said:
Lol, when the author states "More recently, a comparison could be made to Blake Bortles (2014) and Mitch Trubisky (2017). Both were divisive prospects, and neither has proven himself to be a franchise quarterback of yet." 

Mitch Trubisky was drafted last year....Pretty poor choice since I don't think we normally say someone is a franchise QB with only a half a season of experience.
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Yeah, when I see statements like that by someone claiming enough expertise that they are writing and publishing nationally, it makes me pretty much dismiss anything else they are saying.  He’s correct, but it’s a terrible example for the reason you stated.

 
Ksquared said:
Lol, when the author states "More recently, a comparison could be made to Blake Bortles (2014) and Mitch Trubisky (2017). Both were divisive prospects, and neither has proven himself to be a franchise quarterback of yet." 

Mitch Trubisky was drafted last year....Pretty poor choice since I don't think we normally say someone is a franchise QB with only a half a season of experience.
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Yeah, why didn't he use the obvious comparison of a boom-bust prospect who's had two full years under center to show he can't hack it? You know, Carson Wentz. 

Oh, wait.

 
An NFL Scout said Wyoming QB Josh Allen "some accuracy issues that I cannot see getting better."

The scout also mentioned, "He’s got a big arm but there have been a lot of quarterbacks like that that have failed." He's referencing highly-drafted quarterbacks like Jake Locker, Jamarcus Russell, and Paxton Lynch who all looked the part of an NFL quarterback but struggled when it came to actually playing in the NFL. Allen is most well-known for his ideal physical traits including an unbelievably strong arm. The biggest concerns lie in his lack of production and accuracy throughout his collegiate career at a small school playing against poor competition. He had a 56 percent completion percentage at Wyoming, a mark well below the typical threshold of first-round quarterback prospects. One of the most divisive prospects in recent history, Allen could be drafted as high as No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns.

Source: Bob McGinn Football 

Apr 22 - 3:17 PM
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The MMQB's Peter King spoke to "someone I trust, who is very often right and is very well-connected" who stated Wyoming QB Josh Allen will not be the pick at No. 1.

As King notes, we are all prisoners to connections and buzz when it comes to mock drafting. King previously mentioned an Allen to Cleveland connection, as did Daniel Jeremiah and others. Also in that time frame, Jeremiah wrote in marker that Darnold would be the No. 1 pick, as did Bucky Brooks and Joel Klatt. It is the Monday of draft week, and we might not know who will be the first selection until Thursday evening.

Source: SI.com 

Apr 23 - 8:32 AM
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ESPN's Adam Schefter was approached by two people suggesting rival teams surfaced insinsitive tweets made by Wyoming Josh Allen in high school "in order to increase the chances he would fall in the draft to that team."

That's a bit deep for us, as anyone with a Twitter account could search through Allen's history to find these tweets. Allen is no longer being connected with the No. 1 pick (not because of the tweets), and the near consensus opinion is that he lands with the Buffalo Bills.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Apr 26 - 10:34 AM
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I feel like as an agent, "has my white client said the n-word on social media" should probably be something to find out and erase before draft week.

 
jabarony said:
Now we get to find out which is the most racist team!
Click to expand...
Did you read the actual tweets? They didn't look racist to me. Maybe you're over 60 but you hear #####s 50 times a day if you listen to hip hop. This is PC garbage and cheap click bait by yahoo.

 
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voiceofunreason said:
Did you read the actual tweets? They didn't look racist to me. Maybe you're over 60 but you hear #####s 50 times a day if you listen to hip hop. This is PC garbage and cheap click bait by yahoo.
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You hear white teenagers saying that 50 times a day? I work at a very diverse HS and if a white kid said that there would be a huge screech like a record stopping.

I do agree that I don't think they were meant to be racist or that it means he has issues with black people. It's still not a great look for a guy that a team is about to spend millions of dollars on and make the face of the franchise. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
You hear white teenagers saying that 50 times a day? I work at a very diverse HS and if a white kid said that there would be a huge screech like a record stopping.

I do agree that I don't think they were meant to be racist or that it means he has issues with black people. It's still not a great look for a guy that a team is about to spend millions of dollars on and make the face of the franchise. 
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He’s not racist and it was in high school. If  teams are afraid to draft him because of those tweets, we’re in a sad place right now.

 
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller reports that the Jets coaching staff is making a late push for Wyoming QB Josh Allen.

This is interesting, as there are reports that the Jets' front-office currently prefer Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield as the future signal-caller. Now it appears there may be a divide, which isn't uncommon, but isn't ideal, either. There's a chance that both Darnold and Mayfield will both be off the board, and there's been some late rumors that the Giants could move up to the second pick to secure the services of either QB. This will be fascinating to watch when the Jets are on the clock -- whenever that is.

Source: Matt Miller on Twitter 

Apr 26 - 2:46 PM
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Concept Coop said:
He’s not racist and it was in high school. If  teams are afraid to draft him because of those tweets, we’re in a sad place right now.
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Teams should be afraid to draft him because he is not good. As for whether he is racist, I have never met him and know little about him as a person so I don't know. I would like to assume he isn't. The Tweets don't lead me to think he is. However, I don't think there is anything wrong with a team saying they don't want to give $30 million and make the guy the face of his franchise over this though. It's a big decision and if they have 2 players close, this could be a deciding factor. Along with that decision would be what they felt about him from their interviews.

 
Ilov80s said:
You hear white teenagers saying that 50 times a day? I work at a very diverse HS and if a white kid said that there would be a huge screech like a record stopping.

I do agree that I don't think they were meant to be racist or that it means he has issues with black people. It's still not a great look for a guy that a team is about to spend millions of dollars on and make the face of the franchise. 
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Your right you do, only they do it in front of their black friends also. My step son say's it all the time, even on facebook and no one say's a word except me. The whole thing is BS, as far as I'm concerned everyone should stop using it including those who think it's OK. But don't start with this poor kid because you have some other agenda or just want to stir the pot.

 
NFL.com National Insider Ian Rapoport reports that the inappropriate tweets from Wyoming QB Josh Allen won't hurt his draft stock.

Earlier on Thursday, reports of insensitive and inappropriate tweets from Allen when he was in high school surfaced, and there have been some reports that those tweets surfaced because a team wanted Allen to slide down draft boards. Rapoport reports that teams don't seem concerned about those tweets, and the signal-caller has apologized. Allen could slide for football reasons, but it doesn't appear that his stock will slide due to anything that occurred in his past on his Twitter account.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter 

Apr 26 - 1:34 PM
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Streetduck said:
Your right you do, only they do it in front of their black friends also. My step son say's it all the time, even on facebook and no one say's a word except me. The whole thing is BS, as far as I'm concerned everyone should stop using it including those who think it's OK. But don't start with this poor kid because you have some other agenda or just want to stir the pot.
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I feel mixed on this. In some ways it is unfair to make him the example but what will it cost him at most? Dropping 5 or 10 pick maybe? He's going to become a millionaire tonight. Sometimes famous people take the blunt of these blows and that is how non-famous people learn lessons. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I feel mixed on this. In some ways it is unfair to make him the example but what will it cost him at most? Dropping 5 or 10 pick maybe? He's going to become a millionaire tonight. Sometimes famous people take the blunt of these blows and that is how non-famous people learn lessons. 
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What lesson would they be learning? 

 
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He's probably going to fall to the 2nd round now........teams don't want to deal with these kind of distractions.....

 
Milkman said:
He's probably going to fall to the 2nd round now........teams don't want to deal with these kind of distractions.....
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This was already public information and any worthwhile GM would have baked it into their previous assessment.

Allen's draft stock should only fall if he handles the situation poorly now that it has re-surfaced.

Ironically, it might even have a mild positive impact if he demonstrates maturity and growth owning up to his past.

 
Milkman said:
He's probably going to fall to the 2nd round now........teams don't want to deal with these kind of distractions.....
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If he falls it’s going to be hard to distinguish between this and the most likely cause: he wasn’t good in college.

 
Ok we'll see in 3 hours. He's falling because of this but how far I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised if he fell out of the 1st round. Kap can't find a job for kneeling. 

 
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