barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wonder if Vance McDonald is the one that's the most undervalued right now.
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WR James Washington, NO Saints (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I've been targeting him in mock drafts. He's been going pretty late, allowing me to wait on the position. With Jesse James gone, if he can stay healthy he'll do some damage.
wakelawyer
Footballguy
I doubt that based on offers I've seen this offseason. In several different leagues I've received unsolicited offers for McDonald where they are valuing him as if he was a top 5 dynasty TE.
While Ben’s 675 attempts last year certainly looks like (and is) an outlier I don’t think it’s by as much as it would seem at face value. In the 26 games played with Bell from 2015-2017 Ben averaged 36.6 attempts per game for a 16 game average of 589 passes per year. In 29 games played without Bell from 2015-18, Ben averaged 41.1 attempts per game for a 16 game average of 658 attempts per season. If you throw out last year it’s still 39.8 and 638. It seems and makes sense that without Bell, Ben will throw more. Now you take away AB so you probably lose some attempts but I think he’s still going to be in the 630 range. Not 675 but still leaves 160 ish targets vacated when you account for AB and James leaving. Personally I’m betting on Diontae Johnson (Esp at his ADP) as breaking out as the second wr within a few games but if you like Washington there is definitely a path to triple digit targets.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
wakelawyer
Footballguy
He hasn't been traded yet in any of the leagues where owners offered him to me either. I think that owners have a really high perceived value on him whereas others haven't been paying attention to him and don't have him rated as highly.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I moved him and Woods for Njoku and a 2020 1st a couple weeks ago. I also moved Washington during our rookie draft last month. If I remember right it was a mid 2nd and I took JJAW.
ETA That's Vance McDonald and Woods not Washington.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
No kidding. JuJu type early breakouts are rare and far between. For context, AB went 16/167/0 his rookie season. Patience grasshoppers!
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree. At this point I'm holding unless I can get any 2020 1st. Playing with JuJu presents big opportunities. If he busts I'll go down with the ship... I have very little risk to some big reward
ZWK
Footballguy
Washington was terrible in 2018. He didn't look good, and his stats were bottom of the barrel any way you slice it. That doesn't mean that we should call "game over" on his career already, but I have definitely downgraded him compared to where I had him a year ago.
It's weird that people seem to be counting Chark's awful rookie year against him way more than they're doing with Washington.
It's weird that people seem to be counting Chark's awful rookie year against him way more than they're doing with Washington.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm not down on Washington so much as I was and am much higher on JJAW. Also I only recently acquired Washington in part of a bigger deal so as far as not giving someone long enough to develop, it's not like I drafted him and then gave up. He was just a flippable asset and I am betting JJAW is better. He who I *did* draft and will want to show some patience with. But if I can flip for what I think will be a profit......
Interseptopus
Footballguy
If someone offered me JJAW for Washington I'd accept in a hurry. Although that cant happen because I own JJAW
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't think its weird that people value Washington a lot more than Chark. Chark did nothing, and is in an offense that will be mediocre at best. Washington, while disappointing, showed some signs of life, and was universally considered a much better prospect than Chark coming out, and also is in a potentially elite offense.
Plus, Pittsburgh has a long tradition of WR's breaking out in year 2.
Maybe I'll be wrong, but I would want a mid-1st for Washington, Chark is basically a lottery ticket, probably on par with an average 3rd rounder.
ZWK
Footballguy
It's not weird that most people liked Washington more than Chark coming into the league. It is weird that Washington and Chark haved moved in opposite directions in people's minds, after similar rookie seasons. Though I guess the weird part there is all about Washington going up in value.
Washington, Chark, Rosen, Gesicki, and Ronald Jones all played badly as rookies. They should all be worth less than they were a year ago. It seems pretty straightforward.
Washington, Chark, Rosen, Gesicki, and Ronald Jones all played badly as rookies. They should all be worth less than they were a year ago. It seems pretty straightforward.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
In the "which rbs would you pay a first for" thread, people were arguing that Melvin Gordon was worth a mid first.
I can't imagine someone trading Gordon for Washington straight up.
I think you're too high on Washington and they were too low on Gordon but maybe I'm wrong. Happened before.
Except it isn't straightforward at all. Situation in Pittsburgh changed drastically, allowing for Washington to have a shot. QB in Jacksonville changed, potentially allowing Chark to do better. Coach in Miami changed, and maybe he won't be a complete tool. Coach in Tampa Bay changed and he has a history of stellar RB performances.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
A lot of differing opinions in here from people I respect greatly had me reassessing this situation. I put him on the market hoping to sell in a package for a 2020 1st, but was unable to land any bites. I was able to get an offer for what I think is a higher ceiling player, so I did sell. I like what I got but hope I don't regret it in 2-3 years.
I think we can all agree that 2 WRs in the top 4 in the NFL in targets is not sustainable, especially when one of them moves on to another team. IMO it's reasonable to expect PIT to pass less than 2018. Over the last 5 seasons if we take out the two outliers high and low, PIT usually passes about 600 times a season, rounding up. Assuming JuJu gets about 30% of the targets, is it reasonable to say that Washington will get enough to carve out a fantasy role?
To revise my initial hopes for targets, 80 targets for Washington may be a decent number when you look back at recent history in PIT, but that's if he can grasp the role (an additional 15-20 is his cap IMO). I would like to hope he would, but that's admittedly wishful thinking on my part. So if he gets 65/750/5 that puts him high end WR3 territory, which I think is fair. Is that his 2019 ceiling?
We have to remember that in the past PIT had been able to typically produce a top fantasy WR1, decent WR2 and a decent WR 3 (and Heath Miller was no slouch either). Last year was an anomaly producing 2 WR1s and pretty much nothing after them. I would expect a return to baseline in 2019. The question we need to wait and see is if Washington is that WR2 or the WR3... or is he even passed up by the rookie and he's deemed practically worthless? I think these are all fair scenarios.
My concerns:
1. He was raw. He did not look great as a rookie
2. Possible due to #1, he did not have his QB's trust
3. Route running
4. Moncrief has been getting big reviews in camp so far
5. Draft capital spent on a WR they absolutely fell in love with
It seems like PIT did everything they possibly could for the WR position. In contrast, look at GB. They have Adams, JAG in Allison, journeyman Kumerow, and 3 rookies last season. They did absolutely nothing to their WR depth in the offseason, which to me says they are completely confident in what they saw last year that they would have what they needed for 2019.
Positives:
1. Draft capital invested in Washington; PIT drafted him not knowing AB would throw a tantrum out of PIT, so they had expected it might take long for him to develop and they were okay with that
2. Vacated targets. Brown is gone, leaving a lot of targets available. If Washington can hone his craft a bit more he stands to see a potential boost
3. Lost weight. He needs to play fast and I think shedding those pounds will help
4. Moncrief and Johnson... Moncrief has always been a solid outside WR who gets the typical stats he gets. Johnson is a rookie who has his own learning curve. I wouldn't expect Johnson to come in and light it up... most rookies don't.
I think we can all agree that 2 WRs in the top 4 in the NFL in targets is not sustainable, especially when one of them moves on to another team. IMO it's reasonable to expect PIT to pass less than 2018. Over the last 5 seasons if we take out the two outliers high and low, PIT usually passes about 600 times a season, rounding up. Assuming JuJu gets about 30% of the targets, is it reasonable to say that Washington will get enough to carve out a fantasy role?
To revise my initial hopes for targets, 80 targets for Washington may be a decent number when you look back at recent history in PIT, but that's if he can grasp the role (an additional 15-20 is his cap IMO). I would like to hope he would, but that's admittedly wishful thinking on my part. So if he gets 65/750/5 that puts him high end WR3 territory, which I think is fair. Is that his 2019 ceiling?
We have to remember that in the past PIT had been able to typically produce a top fantasy WR1, decent WR2 and a decent WR 3 (and Heath Miller was no slouch either). Last year was an anomaly producing 2 WR1s and pretty much nothing after them. I would expect a return to baseline in 2019. The question we need to wait and see is if Washington is that WR2 or the WR3... or is he even passed up by the rookie and he's deemed practically worthless? I think these are all fair scenarios.
My concerns:
1. He was raw. He did not look great as a rookie
2. Possible due to #1, he did not have his QB's trust
3. Route running
4. Moncrief has been getting big reviews in camp so far
5. Draft capital spent on a WR they absolutely fell in love with
It seems like PIT did everything they possibly could for the WR position. In contrast, look at GB. They have Adams, JAG in Allison, journeyman Kumerow, and 3 rookies last season. They did absolutely nothing to their WR depth in the offseason, which to me says they are completely confident in what they saw last year that they would have what they needed for 2019.
Positives:
1. Draft capital invested in Washington; PIT drafted him not knowing AB would throw a tantrum out of PIT, so they had expected it might take long for him to develop and they were okay with that
2. Vacated targets. Brown is gone, leaving a lot of targets available. If Washington can hone his craft a bit more he stands to see a potential boost
3. Lost weight. He needs to play fast and I think shedding those pounds will help
4. Moncrief and Johnson... Moncrief has always been a solid outside WR who gets the typical stats he gets. Johnson is a rookie who has his own learning curve. I wouldn't expect Johnson to come in and light it up... most rookies don't.
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I wouldn't trade Gordon for Washington either.bostonfred said:
Those people are/were insanely low on Melvin Gordon. He's worth 1.1+ another 1st at least in opinion. He's a top-5 redraft pick, and still in his prime, albeit with some health issues.
I think people really overvalue rookie picks. Its like cars for some people, the second the pick is spent on a player, that player's value has fallen below the picks for some reason.
I would disagree. Washington's situation greatly improved when Brown was traded. If he were in a similar situation as last year, I could see his value being lower than a year ago, but its vastly different. On the other hand, Chark's situation is the same, possibly worse since Marquise Lee will(should?) be healthy, and Chris Conley was added. Foles replacing Bortles should help, but it also might not.ZWK said:
I'd argue Gesicki's value should be about the same too. If people overdrafted him last year, that is their own fault, he was always a raw TE in a bad offense. But, its possible his situation has also improved as he's another year experienced, QB play should be better, and Miami made no additions to their passing game.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Big Ben throws too much for the WR2 in PIT to not have decent value. This was my sentiment, until I checked the stats. In the last 6 yrs, the WR2 has finished 8th, 22nd, 63rd, 39th, 59th, and 32nd. Outside of AB and Juju, the only guy who was even a WR3 was Emmanuel Sanders in 2013. Unless a clear WR2 emerges behind Juju, they may all cancel each other out.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If we pro rate Bens passing attempts for missed games since 2013 he has averaged 612 pass attempts per year which is a lot, yet still significantly lower than the high water mark of 675 he has last season. That is an insane number of attempts. We are talking about two games worth more than his average.
While this is interesting I think it still needs more context. For 3 of those seasons Bell had about 100 targets and was their WR two just playing a different position. I think we should look at the seasons where Bell wasn't dominating targets such as 2013, 2015 and last season for a sense of what will happen this season, without Bell or Brown it changes the offense dramatically.
2013 Bells rookie season and before he lost weight and established himself as a great receiver. Sanders was 2nd on the team in targets with 113. The next most was Heath Miller with 79 then the WR 3 Cotchery had 76 targets.
2015 Bryant had 92 targets in 11 games played. Pro rates to 133 targets over 16 games. Bryant had off the field issues. He was way over drafted following the 2015 season.
2018 no Bell. Two WR getting over 150 targets.
I think the opportunity is there. The question is if Washington is talented enough to earn higher volume than Sanders or Bryant did?
I do think Washington is a better WR than Wheaton was, that is not saying much. Based on the college evaluation I dont think he is as good as Bryant but maybe he could be as good as Sanders?
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Another factor is Ben likes to throw to his TE and passes a lot to his RBs, and I don't see that changing this year even without Bell (Samuels/Conner combo had as many catches and yards last year as Bell did in 2017).TheWinz said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While that is true the Steelers also threw 675 times for those players to get those targets.
I'm not sure that is happening if they only throw for 600? Maybe it will.
Conner and Samuel had exactly 100 targets combined over the season. Most of Samuels opportunity came in the 3 games that Conner missed. Combined they represent 15% of Bens targets last year.
In 2017 Bell had 106 targets in 15 games which pro rated was 19% of the total targets (Ben missed a game)
2016 Bell had 94 targets in 12 games which pro rated was 21% of the total targets (Ben missed two games)
So while the total targets looks similar the total share of the targets is significantly less.
15% of 612 targets is 92 targets distributed to the two RB. Samuels did have a lot of receptions in the Steelers last game of the season after Conner returned from injury. Maybe they use both more going forward? Other than that game Samuels didn't get much opportunity at all until Conner was injured. Makes some amount of sense to keep using him though after he played well.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Very good points, but I think the better question is - is Washington better than Moncrief, Switzer, and Johnson, enough so to out-target them by a good margin?Biabreakable said:
Please forgive all the upcoming numbers - As you said, his prorated average attempts through the last 6 years (Bell's rookie season) is 612 (675, 598, 582, 625, 608, 584). During this span, the RB's have had 110, 113, 126, 82, 122, 109. The WR's have had 445, 375, 338, 406, 377, 375. The TE's have had 119, 96, 126, 95, 97, 98. So, for the market share each year, from 2018 back to 2013, it has been (in order of RB/WR/TE) 16/66/18, 19/64/17, 21/58/21, 14/70/16, 21/63/16, 19/64/17.
From 2013 through 2017 with Bell, the market share for RB's was a steady 20%, but as you see, when Bell went down in 2015, the RB market share plummeted. Largely in part because a 32-yr old DeAngelo Williams wasn't quite the pass-catching threat, although he did catch a career high 40. With Bell out last year, the RB market share fell to 16%, and that seems to be a fair number going forward. Maybe it will rise to 18%, but I think 20% is pushing it. As for the TE's, they have been at a steady 17% for the last 6 yrs, with the only outlier in 2016 (21%). I have to attribute the spike to Bell missing 4 games, and Antonio Brown being the only consistent WR.
Bear with me - I am getting there! I think the 2 biggest factors in market share are talent and injuries, and I think the above stats help to show just that. The WR market share is a steady 63-66%, with 2016 and 2015 as the outliers. Their low of 58% came in a season where Brown dominated with 154 targets, but the next highest WR was Eli Rogers at 66, then Sammie Coates at 49. They simply had no WR2 they could count on. On the other side of the pendulum was 2015 (70%), where Bell was hurt, Brown dominated (193), and Bryant/Wheaton (92/79) were at least decent backups behind Brown. Also, Heath Miller was aging and in his last season, and Jesse James was just a rookie.
What will the market share be this year, and how many targets will there be to go around? Well, based on the past 6 yrs, and with the personnel changes, my guess is 18% to RB's, 66% to WR's, and 16% to TE's. I have lowered the TE's to their lowest in 6 years because of the TE depth. Behind Vance McDonald is Xavier Grimble, a 3-yr vet who has proven nothing, as his targets have been in the single digits the last 2 yrs. They did draft Zach Gentry in the 5th round, but I think he's a work in progress. BTW, thanx for allowing me to really dive into the PIT receiving game, because I now have to work on Vance, who may have a better year than I was expecting. I've decided 18% is fair for RB's, even though they were 16% last year. I stole the 2% from the TE's, not the WR's.
Brown's target share % (counting all targets, just not WR's) has been 25, 28, 26, 33, 30, 29. While I do think Juju is head and shoulders above the other PIT WR's this year, I can't see him getting over 33%. Based on his talent vs the other WR's, I am going with 30%. Let's also use 612 as Ben's attempt's. That gives Juju 183 targets, which is easily doable even if Ben's attemtps go down. Hell, he had 166 last year, and that was with Brown getting 168. I am left with 220 targets for all other WR's. James Washington has to be considered an early favorite to get most of this. Moncrief and Switzer should get their share, and Diontae Johnson will certainly be in the mix too. I think Washington has a shot at 120 targets if he can impress between now and the start of the season. Moncrief is his biggest threat IMO. Switzer is merely depth, and Diontae will be hunting for scraps after Washington & Moncrief.
Yikes, what a long-winded blowhard post this is, but I spent 2 hours on it, so I am posting anyways...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In regards to if Washington can earn the 2nd most targets for WR I dont know.
I think Moncrief isnt the answer because he didnt do much with Luck. They didnt retain him.
But maybe Mobcrief is good enough? And more importantly better than Washington?
He is certainly more experienced. I just dont see him breaking out at this stage of his career. Maybe Washington or someone else could.
I think Moncrief isnt the answer because he didnt do much with Luck. They didnt retain him.
But maybe Mobcrief is good enough? And more importantly better than Washington?
He is certainly more experienced. I just dont see him breaking out at this stage of his career. Maybe Washington or someone else could.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Well, it surely won't be Switzer, but I don't see him getting cut, so that just leaves Washington, Moncrief, Diontae, and what should be a bit over 200 targets. PIT certainly wants to find a WR2 to go along with Juju, instead of just playing WR2 carousel. In the end, maybe it works out that way though. Maybe they start with Washington for the first part of the season, then switch to Moncrief when they get tired of his suckage. Then repeat the process in the second half of the season with the rookie.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think the highest possiblity is for these wrs to have targets of 75, 75, 50... rather than one to have 100 and be fantasy relevant, and the other two to have 50.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I mean that's unquestionably the safe assumption. But he is literally only 25. Turns 26 in a few weeks. I don't know if the raw age number is a bigger factor than the idea that he has been in the league 5 years, when it comes to saying "this stage" of his career. I'm not disagreeing with you, I have tempered hopes at best that he'll be my WR5 that I can flip as a throw in some bigger deal. Or I'll just drop him at some point and not think twice. I can't really imagine starting him in my lineup. Possibly even if he does solidify the WR2 role for Pitt. But the fact that he is so young and athletic, and *also* experienced, makes me wonder if h3 could emerge more. Even if it just means making Juju even more viable. Ultimately 100 targets feels realistic but a hard ceiling. Dan said 75 75 50 I think that's about right.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Although, to piggy back off someone above, I could easily see a scenario where one of Washington or Moncrief starts the season off as the WR2 and by midseason the other one emerges more. And I could see it going in either direction. Such a scenario might lead to an end of season 75 75 50 breakdown but week to week it may be the (100 50 50)/16 variety. Which would be fantasy relevant. And if the Pitt offense can be competitive, TDs may be higher. IDK. I got Moncrief in like the 5th or 6th round of my rookie/FA draft in May. I moved Washington earlier for 2.06 if I recall correctly. Took JJAW. Who I still think is criminally undervalued but different thread.
squistion
Footballguy
And that speaks volumes considering before the draft and FA they nothing much behind Hilton.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Anything is possible.
I very much doubt that the Colts would have let Moncrief walk if they had any hope of him becoming better than he was for them. Its not like they don't need WR themselves.
FWIW WR careers tend to peak at age 26-28 so sure Moncrief is in there. The problem is that his peak so far has been 64 receptions 733 yards and 6 TD. Hes been pretty thoroughly mediocre.
Maybe that is all the Steelers need out of their WR two though?
FWIW I did like Moncrief more as a college prospect than Washington. I just have seen Moncrief not live up to some of my former optimism about him, which admittedly has always been a bit tepid.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
For sure. Last time he played a whole season with a team not QBd by Bortles, he had 100 targets. But that was a lifetime ago and to your point he has really never flashed. Couldn't get 100 targets with the Jags but those targets were poor quality for sure.
ETA 90 targets with the Jags was 30% of the WR target share. 105 targets in 2015 was 27%. Don't think that means much but still.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I also think Vance McDonald has a better chance than either Washington or Moncrief to break out (in a TE relevant sense) this year. He is the one I am more interested in.
TheWinz
Footballguy
After doing the math, I have to agree. I said above Washington has a shot at 120 targets, but that would require quite a bit of separation between himself and the remaining WR's. Vance, on the other hand, is 100% sure to be the only real option at TE, and I have just about all of the nearly 100 targets going his way.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
70/700/7 would be like what a low end WR2 in TE premium? 217 pts in FFPC/FBG. That can flip a middle of the road team to a solid contender. Would have been WR20 or TE6 last year.
If Washington takes a 2nd year leap, though, I'm not sure McDonald gets there. But right now I'm betting against it.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Here is where I have to disagree. I think Vance's stats are gonna be what they are, no matter how the WR's after Juju play out. He's gonna get his targets regardless. He may even get a few more if it's a complete suckfest at WR2.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I mean I can buy that. I'm just envisioning if JW takes a big leap. But there *are* a ton of targets there.
Zyphros
Footballguy
He and Jaylen Samuels seem like the answer to me. I've never been a fan of Washington. I use to believe in Moncrief, but that ship seems to have sailed as a true #2 as well. That leaves Vance, who has stepped up in the past, and Samuels who is looking like a key offensive piece.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’m more inclined to think Moncrief has a better shot at receiving a decent number of targets than Washington. Not interested in either but 14th-16th round you’re looking for guys with upside. Volume of the offense alone makes it a possibility, however remote: Regardless, most likely outcome is you end up dropping him early for a WW darling.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Moving him up from the 180s to 115ish (redraft.) We already know what Moncrief is, young guy might be developing. Pretty meh rookie year and he didn’t exactly blow sway scouts (Biletnikoff winner with average 40, height adjusted speed score & SPARK-x.) On the plus side I’m always gonna be opened minded about wideouts who break out early (18.4!) & dominate at elite power 5 schools running spread offenses.
Had a good game versus the JV squad, and he’s had a really good TC. The opportunity is right there in front of him, let’s see what he does with it.
Had a good game versus the JV squad, and he’s had a really good TC. The opportunity is right there in front of him, let’s see what he does with it.
socrates
Footballguy
Washington had a nice game to start the 2019 preseason, but I am tempering my excitement a bit; he was a preseason darling as a rookie as well, and that never translated into regular season success. Things are undoubtedly different this season in Pittsburgh with a giant void created by the departure of AB, and as a Washington dynasty owner, I am hopeful Washington emerges.
