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sjdogs

Breaking down what’s left after the Big 4 RB’s in RD 1

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I love the value with the back half of round 1this year. Choosing between the following

Fournette

Kamara

Barkley

Gordon

Cook

Hunt

 

 these guys have been discussed at length but it’s close to draft time and personally I  believe there is import to spending time on sorting preferences amongst this group.  Statistically 1/2 the top ten will really bust or  underperform.   I’m kind of stuck because I have a thing with second year backs. I’ve been burnt a bunch by similar guys who killed it year 1 to disappear year two.  I like Fournette the best , kamara usage isn’t for me even if his numbers warrant the pick. A back under 175 carries in round 1 with a very competent 1 A isn’t s first rounder for me.  Barkley looks great but the team sucks.  I like cook and the injury doesn’t concern me.  I like Hunt a lot also.  Gordon a pass for me because I think the other guys on the list are better 

 

so what can we use to determine who we want to choose?

 

what say you

 

 

Edited by sjdogs

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4 hours ago, sjdogs said:

I love the value with the back half of round 1this year. Choosing between the following

Fournette

Kamara

Barkley

Gordon

Cook

Hunt

 

 these guys have been discussed at length but it’s close to draft time and personally I  believe there is import to spending time on sorting preferences amongst this group.  Statistically 1/2 the top ten will really bust or  underperform.   I’m kind of stuck because I have a thing with second year backs. I’ve been burnt a bunch by similar guys who killed it year 1 to disappear year two.  I like Fournette the best , kamara usage isn’t for me even if his numbers warrant the pick. A back under 175 carries in round 1 with a very competent 1 A isn’t s first rounder for me.  Barkley looks great but the team sucks.  I like cook and the injury doesn’t concern me.  I like Hunt a lot also.  Gordon a pass for me because I think the other guys on the list are better 

 

so what can we use to determine who we want to choose?

 

what say you

 

 

:deadhorse:

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Everyone has their preferences in this tier and it's ok to just take your favorite.  

For me it goes fournette at the top of the group.  It's easier to see how an uptick in production for fournette would move him up than an uptick in touches for one of the other backs. 

But I can totally see being risk averse about his ankle.  Or worried about him as a potential keeper if he gets hurt.  Or preferring Kamara because his receiving gives him a higher floor each week.  In a ten team league i'll take the higher ceiling because I think I can get totally depth.  In a 16 team league i'll give up a little ceiling for the safer pick.  In ppr I might take the receiving back in standard I might prefer the volume runner. 

These guys are all very close. Save your agonizing for the middle rounds. 

Edited by bostonfred

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agree that it comes down to preference. For me it's Saquon. I don't think the Giants will suck this year. Too many weapons to defend everyone. His skill set is such that he will stay on the field and all the comments from coaches confirm he's in for a heavy, 3 down workload. Pass catching skills are elite and can easily take any one play to the house. Most defenses will not leave a CB on an island vs OBJ. This will help ensure less stacked boxes and give Saquon room to operate.

Fully understand if people are scared of taking a rookie but I don't think anyone would be shocked if next year we are discussing where he should go in the top 3. 

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I got #4 pick in ppr with Dallas oline banged up and below average weapons on outside I'm going Saquon over Elliott!!! Am I crazy guys?

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2 minutes ago, Robo35 said:

I got #4 pick in ppr with Dallas oline banged up and below average weapons on outside I'm going Saquon over Elliott!!! Am I crazy guys?

Everyone has their take so you are not crazy.  But, that isn't the choice that I would make.  Give me the proven commodity.   

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Seems like everyone keeps undervaluing Gordon. Yeah his ypc are a bit low, but he's the workhorse, catches passes, and scores TDs. I'll be targeting him in the late 1st/early 2nd in my drafts.

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Gordon should most definitely be in the conversation - workload, good team, other weapons etc 

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From the 9 spot I'm tossing up the same ideas.  I'm planning on going WR/RB or RB/WR but not sure which.   If I take OBJ or Hopkins,  I'd want Gordon or Fournette at 16 overall which one has been there 80% of the time in mocks all over.  However if I take a RB at 9 (also Gordon or Fournette) I'd be probably hoping for Allen or Gronk in round 2.

I likely will lean WR as if Gordon isn't there I'd be ok with Mccaffrey at 16.

We only start Q-R-W-T-F-F-K-D  though.

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Gordon definitely should be in the conversation for top of this list. Heck I wouldn't fault someone for putting him in the top 3.

Fournette seems like an obvious choice as well, despite concerns over his ankles.

But the guy I am most surprised about is Hunt. It seems like people are really down on him, relatively speaking. I see few RBs with demonstrated ability, who will command more opportunities in a more proven offense. I easily have him over Dalvin, Kamara and Barkley and can see arguments in favor if him going top 3-4. But I see him around RB9 in ADP.

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4 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Gordon definitely should be in the conversation for top of this list. Heck I wouldn't fault someone for putting him in the top 3.

Fournette seems like an obvious choice as well, despite concerns over his ankles.

But the guy I am most surprised about is Hunt. It seems like people are really down on him, relatively speaking. I see few RBs with demonstrated ability, who will command more opportunities in a more proven offense. I easily have him over Dalvin, Kamara and Barkley and can see arguments in favor if him going top 3-4. But I see him around RB9 in ADP.

A lot of weapons and Ware >>> Hunt at pass protecting.

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Just now, Chaka said:

Gordon definitely should be in the conversation for top of this list. Heck I wouldn't fault someone for putting him in the top 3.

Fournette seems like an obvious choice as well, despite concerns over his ankles.

But the guy I am most surprised about is Hunt. It seems like people are really down on him, relatively speaking. I see few RBs with demonstrated ability, who will command more opportunities in a more proven offense. I easily have him over Dalvin, Kamara and Barkley and can see arguments in favor if him going top 3-4. But I see him around RB9 in ADP.

Yep, I keep saying it over and over. Melvin Gordon is the forgotten bellcow. Yes, his ypc has been low. Also, that doesn't matter. He will get lots of carries, lots of targets, lots of RZ touches and will rarely leave the field. He was a 1st round pick. He has NFL size. He tested as a really good athlete at the combine. His last  years at Wisconsin, he put up 4300 yards and 44 TDs.There is literally nothing to dislike except his ypc. 

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15 minutes ago, Payne said:

A lot of weapons and Ware >>> Hunt at pass protecting.

Meh. Weapons don't concern me as you can easily make the argument that they allow RBs greater efficiency, lead to more sustained drives and more scoring opportunities.

And I don't think we know with certainty that Ware is better at pass protection in 2018. Even if he is that doesn't mean Hunt is a liability, particularly when it looks like he is better in literally every other aspect. Hunt is a 3down back who keeps defenses guessing when he is in the backfield.

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10 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Meh. Weapons don't concern me as you can easily make the argument that they allow RBs greater efficiency, lead to more sustained drives and more scoring opportunities.

And I don't think we know with certainty that Ware is better at pass protection in 2018. Even if he is that doesn't mean Hunt is a liability, particularly when it looks like he is better in literally every other aspect. Hunt is a 3down back who keeps defenses guessing when he is in the backfield.

New QB who will likely turn the ball over more than Alex Smith.

Ekeler worries me in PPR leagues with Gordon.

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13 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

New QB who will likely turn the ball over more than Alex Smith.

Ekeler worries me in PPR leagues with Gordon.

ekeler worries me but not as much as ware

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39 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Ekeler worries me in PPR leagues with Gordon.

Referring back to my snaps and utilization chart from last year even when Ekeler's snaps bumped up to ~30%, Gordon was somehow utilized more than he was at the beginning of the season. Ekeler's distribution of targets through-out the season was also pretty even and Gordon still managed 79 targets. And this was with Gates and Henry acting as familiar safety valves for Rivers. 

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18 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

Referring back to my snaps and utilization chart from last year even when Ekeler's snaps bumped up to ~30%, Gordon was somehow utilized more than he was at the beginning of the season. Ekeler's distribution of targets through-out the season was also pretty even and Gordon still managed 79 targets. And this was with Gates and Henry acting as familiar safety valves for Rivers. 

:thumbup:

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2 hours ago, hamsterdam said:

Are y’all snap picking AB if he falls to 6? 

No because I must have a top back and I am fine with a top 7 WR 

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I personally see Kamara and Barkley as the next tier, with Fournette just a notch below. Why not CMC in the discussion for the next group of guys in ppr? He seems to be getting rave reviews so far, talking about giving him more work, etc. I am thinking about putting him over a couple of these guys. His stats will have a higher week to week variance, but he does offer Kamara like upside. All comes down to preference at this point...

 

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depends on if its ppr or not...   fournette is fine for me in non ppr.  prefer saquan or kamara in ppr..  also depends on line ups.  having brown or hop locked in as your wr 1, and getting the left over of kamara, bark, cook, fourt, hunt, Gordon also is appealing

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2 hours ago, hamsterdam said:

Are y’all snap picking AB if he falls to 6? 

in a PPR yes, in a heartbeat

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5 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

From the 9 spot I'm tossing up the same ideas.  I'm planning on going WR/RB or RB/WR but not sure which.   If I take OBJ or Hopkins,  I'd want Gordon or Fournette at 16 overall which one has been there 80% of the time in mocks all over.  However if I take a RB at 9 (also Gordon or Fournette) I'd be probably hoping for Allen or Gronk in round 2.

I likely will lean WR as if Gordon isn't there I'd be ok with Mccaffrey at 16.

We only start Q-R-W-T-F-F-K-D  though.

i don't know where you are seeing gordon or fournette last til pick 16.   and after week 2 preseason game McCaffrey hasn't been making it there either

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+1 for the Gordon train. Took him at 5 in a recent draft and didn’t hesitate. Have #8 in my main league and crossing my fingers for him there. 

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7 hours ago, Robo35 said:

I got #4 pick in ppr with Dallas oline banged up and below average weapons on outside I'm going Saquon over Elliott!!! Am I crazy guys?

We're going too far now. In years gone by, rookie RB's went in the 4th to middle rounds. I vividly recall AP getting drafted no higher than the 4th in his rookie year and his hype (correct obviously) was huge. Even last year, the top rookie RB's like Fournette and Cook were being taken 2nd - 4th round. Now we're talking first round and even top 4? There's quite literally no room for failure if you take him there and especially over proven quality like Elliott? No thanks. If he's that good, we can talk about taking him top 4 next year. It's not like going from third rounder to first like Fournette, this is mid first to high first, like 3-4 spots at most. Crazy to me but I am risk-averse I guess.

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21 minutes ago, LionOfGosforth said:

We're going too far now. In years gone by, rookie RB's went in the 4th to middle rounds. I vividly recall AP getting drafted no higher than the 4th in his rookie year and his hype (correct obviously) was huge. Even last year, the top rookie RB's like Fournette and Cook were being taken 2nd - 4th round. Now we're talking first round and even top 4? There's quite literally no room for failure if you take him there and especially over proven quality like Elliott? No thanks. If he's that good, we can talk about taking him top 4 next year. It's not like going from third rounder to first like Fournette, this is mid first to high first, like 3-4 spots at most. Crazy to me but I am risk-averse I guess.

I understand but u also said what I'm thinking Saquon is going top 8 in ppr so taking him at 4 isn't going to far plus I seen today on rotoworld.com that Fredrick the key center for Dallas oline gonna see Dr. ANDREWS now him and the best guard in game Martin banged up too

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My assumption was NO PPR, should have clarified and obviously changes analysis. 

Personally Vacillating preferences between Hunt, Fournette and Barkley. 

Barkley is interesting he is a cant miss top 10 finish if he plays 16 but I prefer chiefs and Hunt I think   

Jags defense will create plenty of run opportunities , wonder about Fournette scoring TDS and I get bonus for length of td so hunt attractive   

 

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1 hour ago, Skeletore Eh said:

i don't know where you are seeing gordon or fournette last til pick 16.   and after week 2 preseason game McCaffrey hasn't been making it there either

I did a bunch of PPR ESPN mocks. In 75% of them today I was getting Fournette or Gordon at 16.  It just took McCaffrey and Cook or a WR like MT to go before. 

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32 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I did a bunch of PPR ESPN mocks. In 75% of them today I was getting Fournette or Gordon at 16.  It just took McCaffrey and Cook or a WR like MT to go before. 

I have pick ten and seriously considering going rb/rb

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2 hours ago, Elevencents said:

+1 for the Gordon train. Took him at 5 in a recent draft and didn’t hesitate. Have #8 in my main league and crossing my fingers for him there. 

I have the 1.7 in my main redraft next Tuesday night and I was going to "reach" for Gordon there.

Now I'm hoping he lasts to 1.7.

 

Let's shut this Gordon stuff down, fellas.

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Fournettes floor is pretty high.  Only concern is this inexplicable year  two bust thing 

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I'm in the quandary with pick 7 in one redraft and pick 8 in another. Sounding like Gordon or likes of Fournette, Barkley, or Hopkins. Brown definitely gone by then...and Kamara as well. Don't want Beckham either.

Coming back depending upon the first of aforementioned I am targeting Hunt, Cook, Allen, and Gronk. What if Michael Thomas falls to 16 or 17? Not really sure if I want him? I see him getting picked up at the early turn anyway.

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9 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

I'm in the quandary with pick 7 in one redraft and pick 8 in another. Sounding like Gordon or likes of Fournette, Barkley, or Hopkins. Brown definitely gone by then...and Kamara as well. Don't want Beckham either.

Coming back depending upon the first of aforementioned I am targeting Hunt, Cook, Allen, and Gronk. What if Michael Thomas falls to 16 or 17? Not really sure if I want him? I see him getting picked up at the early turn anyway.

Hunt, cmc.  I would consider gronk.  Def over cook, Allen and Mike thomas

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3 minutes ago, need2know said:

Hunt, cmc.  I would consider gronk.  Def over cook, Allen and Mike thomas

CmC falls on the back end of my round 2 picks for me. I don't like the fact that most likely he gets 175 rushes vs. those other bell cows upwards to 300. Sure, he catches a lot of passes. Scoring TD's prolly 8-10+ range - not too bad. I would take Hunt, Barkley (if he falls), Cook, Allen, and Gronk > CmC. And I like the kid! I'd root for him all day long if I owned him. CmC pick 17 > Thomas pick 13.

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I hear ya.  I think I'm gonna be able to end up with 2 of Barkley, Gordon, hunt, cook, or fournette in the first 2 rounds.  

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1 hour ago, need2know said:

I have pick ten and seriously considering going rb/rb

I absolutely would. After 6 drafts and untold mocks I’ve realized how much better my team looks after a 2 RB start. 

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17 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

I absolutely would. After 6 drafts and untold mocks I’ve realized how much better my team looks after a 2 RB start. 

It's either that or take a chance on mccoy in the third or fourth rounds.  I'm just not in love with the wr at the turn.  Got my draft tommorow so trying to nail down my strat

Edited by need2know

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mccaffrey has to be considered as a top 4-5 RB, no? check norv turner's history with RBs - lots of rushes, yards, tds, recs. McCaffrey is going to be pure gold this season..just going by turner's record which is very impressive indeed..

I'm a Giants' fan, and I like what I see from Barkley, but I'm not basing my first pick, a potential top 5 pick, on an unproven player who is already hurt, coming off a game with one big run..I really REALLY wish we got to see more of Saquon Barkley than just this brief viewing a couple of weeks ago..you cannot base your entire draft off of that one single performance.yeah he was great in college, but that was college!  if I'm putting faith in anyone like that, outside of the top 3 or 4, I'm saying McCaffrey has an impressive resume, decent rookie year, but a fantastic offensive coordinator in Norv Turner. ask stephen davis, LT2, Emmit Smith,  etc..we're talking fantasy gold here. 

 

"It began with Emmitt Smith in Dallas. Then there was Terry Allen and Stephen Davis in Washington. Then LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Ricky Williams in Miami and LaMont Jordan in Oakland. Then Frank Gore in San Francisco, and Tomlinson once again in San Diego.At every stop in two decades as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, Norv Turner has produced a featured back that has rushed for 1,000 yards (usually well over 1,000 yards) and scored 10-plus touchdowns (except in San Francisco, where Gore had nine touchdowns in Turner's lone season there in 2006)." source - NFl.com

I'm pushing all-in on McCaffery over Barkley - better QB, better supporting cast incl. better defense, probably a better O-line at this point, decent-enough WRs.the game V Dolphins might've been a view into the season,i.e.,  how they will use CMC. 

I used to disregard McCaffrey as a c.o.p back.now I'm a believer..just my 7 cents

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7 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

mccaffrey has to be considered as a top 4-5 RB, no? check norv turner's history with RBs - lots of rushes, yards, tds, recs. McCaffrey is going to be pure gold this season..just going by turner's record which is very impressive indeed..

 

Completely agree.  I'm considering him at 1.7 because I know that he won't be back to me in the 2nd.  Definitely over Barkley.  Would consider Nuk or Gordon but am leaning CMC.

Edited by C-Bound

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I wouldn't take cmc in the first.  hes unproven compared to the other backs and wr going there.  second round for sure.  totally understand over barkley.  but too many other rbs have shown more belong over cmc

 

I would easily take big 4 plus Gordon, fournette, kamrara, hunt, brown, Hopkins, julio, odell,  mike Thomas over cmc

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33 minutes ago, need2know said:

I wouldn't take cmc in the first.  hes unproven compared to the other backs and wr going there.  second round for sure.  totally understand over barkley.  but too many other rbs have shown more belong over cmc

 

I would easily take big 4 plus Gordon, fournette, kamrara, hunt, brown, Hopkins, julio, odell,  mike Thomas over cmc

CMC is a great player but I doubt that he can hold up an entire season if he is running between the tackles frequently. 

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15 hours ago, need2know said:

I have pick ten and seriously considering going rb/rb

I’ve done several mocks at #10, and typically I start Fournette/Gordon (or Cook if one is gone). At the 3/4 turn I typically end up with my choice of two of Diggs/Fitz/Hilton/DThomas/Juju, every now and then Hill will slip to the turn too.  

I love going WR first in a PPR, but in a standard league I’m seriously considering a RB/RB start like you are base on what I’m seeing in mocks 

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18 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

I’ve done several mocks at #10, and typically I start Fournette/Gordon (or Cook if one is gone). At the 3/4 turn I typically end up with my choice of two of Diggs/Fitz/Hilton/DThomas/Juju, every now and then Hill will slip to the turn too.  

I love going WR first in a PPR, but in a standard league I’m seriously considering a RB/RB start like you are base on what I’m seeing in mocks 

I'm in a ppr.  Prob wuss out and go Gordon and / Julio/Mike thomas/aj green

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15 hours ago, need2know said:

I hear ya.  I think I'm gonna be able to end up with 2 of Barkley, Gordon, hunt, cook, or fournette in the first 2 rounds.  

Highly doubtful. I'm pick 12 and going rb/rb all day. If there is someone like me in your draft you won't get two of those tier rbs. Just have a back up plan.

Also I'm in standard scoring. If all the good rbs are gone after my first pick I'm leaning CMC over Freeman as my second pick.

Edited by Weebs210

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21 hours ago, hamsterdam said:

Are y’all snap picking AB if he falls to 6? 

Yes. I have the 6th pick and will absolutely take him over any RB outside of the top 5.

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15 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Highly doubtful. I'm pick 12 and going rb/rb all day. If there is someone like me in your draft you won't get two of those tier rbs. Just have a back up plan.

Also I'm in standard scoring. If all the good rbs are gone after my first pick I'm leaning CMC over Freeman as my second pick.

its a ppr.  but there are a couple morons in my league.  I wouldn't be surprised if brady or Rodgers goes in the first round.  im serious

Edited by need2know
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Well the more I have thought about it, the more I have convinced myself I am going RB over Brown at 5. 

If I take Brown at 5, I am almost locked in to taking a RB in round 2. Who that RB will be? Anyone's guess. Mixon? McKinnon?

If I go RB, it frees me up to take best player available in round 2. I can grab a 2nd RB. I can grab AJ, Adams, Evans or Hilton. I can grab Gronk maybe. 

Now the question becomes WHICH RB? Really leaning Barkley. I want the upside.

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16 hours ago, Team Smokin' said:

I'm in the quandary with pick 7 in one redraft and pick 8 in another. Sounding like Gordon or likes of Fournette, Barkley, or Hopkins. Brown definitely gone by then...and Kamara as well. Don't want Beckham either.

Coming back depending upon the first of aforementioned I am targeting Hunt, Cook, Allen, and Gronk. What if Michael Thomas falls to 16 or 17? Not really sure if I want him? I see him getting picked up at the early turn anyway.

I've got the 7th pick in an upcoming draft (this weekend).

I've done a number of drafts (.5 ppr) and Kamara has been dropping to the 7th probably 65-70% of the time.

The second and third round selections though are anyone's guess. 

I seem to be consistently going with BPA / Value pick at pick 18 and 31 and then adjusting the rest of my draft based on those picks.

I've come out with some decent teams at times but I find it really requires a lot of concentration and constant re-evaluation from pick to pick to come out with a good team.

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