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RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (3 Viewers)

Draw your own conclusions. Note: Gurley only played 6 games in his final season.

Gurley in College

2012: 14 games, 16 catches (0.875 catches per game)

2013: 10 games, 37 catches (3.7 catches per game)

2014: 6 games, 12 catches (2 catches per game)

Total: 30 games, 65 catches (2.16 catches per game)

Henderson in College

2016: 13 games, 20 catches (1.54 catches per game)

2017: 12 games, 24 catches (2 catches per game)

2018: 13 games, 19 catches (1.46 catches per game)

Total: 38 games, 63 catches (1.66 catches per game)
Gurley:

2.16 catches/ game in college

He averaged 84 receptions the last two seasons (5.79 catches per game)

An improvement of 3.63 catches / game

Henderson:

1.66 catches / game in college

To get 60 in one season, he would need 3.75 per game, an improvement on his college numbers of 2.09 catches/ game

Yeah... impossible...never been done before... suggesting it is totally :lmao:

If Henderson made the same improvement Gurley has made, he would have 5.29 catches / game. Putting him at 84 catches. Perhaps we are underestimating his potential. 

 
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Gurley:

2.16 catches/ game in college

He averaged 84 receptions the last two seasons (5.79 catches per game)

An improvement of 3.63 catches / game

Henderson:

1.66 catches / game in college

To get 60 in one season, he would need 3.75 per game, an improvement on his college numbers of 2.09 catches/ game

Yeah... impossible...never been done before... suggesting it is totally :lmao:

If Henderson made the same improvement Gurley has made, he would have 5.29 catches / game. Putting him at 84 catches. Perhaps we are underestimating his potential. 
If he was the starter, sure. But in a timeshare with Gurley? No chance.

16, 32, 48, 64

Guy would need 4 catches a game. To get to 64, let alone 60. That requires multiple 5 catch games.

Mind you, Gurley caught 5.78 passes per game last season. I think we'll see Gurley regress to about 3.8 to 4.2 catches a game.

That leaves about 1.78 to 2.18 catches per game for Henderson to inherit based on game flow. Maybe they design a few passing plays directly for him. Tack on 1.5 for safe measure to give him 3.28 to 3.68 catches per game as the best case scenario. Variable week to week. Aka "perfect games". Maybe there's garbage time or an unusually long drive.

Low End

28.48 to 34.88 catches

Best Case Scenario

52.38 to 58.88 catches 

This assumes he plays 16 games with no boo boos. There's going to be weeks this guy only touches the ball like 6 times and Gurley puts up a monster. But he's definitely got home run potential in this offense.

You stretch the defense in so many directions, that eventually this guy is going to gouge you with a sweep when you're defense is shifted elsewhere.

 
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you're missing the point. We are showing how your argument is a terribly flawed one.

You referenced Hendersons college receptions as definitive proof he cant be a high volume receiver in the NFL

BB and I have shown you two examples if where that is not true for NFL RBs we already know have produced

Therefore, your argument against Henderson is a terrible one. 
You're making too many assumptions about my logic. I'm much more flexible than you think.

If me thinking there isn't enough opportunity for Henderson to catch 60 passes makes me a KOOK in your eyes, then sign me up.

I'll take the UNDER of 60 catches for a ROOKIE in a timeshare with the BEST running back in the NFL any day of the week. If Gurley blows a knee, then sure it can happen.

But you put your money in the right place and let the percentages play themselves.

 
I would also like to point out that Todd Gurley didn't even catch 60 passes last year. Yet, I'm being unreasonable to suggest that this rookie won't come in and do it.

💁

 
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If me thinking there isn't enough opportunity for Henderson to catch 60 passes makes me a KOOK in your eyes, then sign me up.
No, what makes you a KOOK in my eyes is when you use college stats to back up your claim that Henderson cant catch 60 balls in the NFL because of his college stats, even though it's been proven wrong several times in the NFL

If you dont think the volume is there for him to produce like that, fine, say that. That's not what yous said though. It seems, however, you realize your examples are flawed and you're back to the volume argument. Which is fine. That's something I acknowledge may not be there either as it's highly dependant on Gurleys health and the gameplan from the coach, which go hand in hand

 
No, what makes you a KOOK in my eyes is when you use college stats to back up your claim that Henderson cant catch 60 balls in the NFL because of his college stats, even though it's been proven wrong several times in the NFL

If you dont think the volume is there for him to produce like that, fine, say that. That's not what yous said though. It seems, however, you realize your examples are flawed and you're back to the volume argument. Which is fine. That's something I acknowledge may not be there either as it's highly dependant on Gurleys health and the gameplan from the coach, which go hand in hand
Bro, I've literally never said  Henderson couldn't catch 60 passes in the NFL.

Kindly, quote where I've stated this.

 
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Wow at first I thought this was for Henderson and I thought oh boy... someone's crazier than I am. Then I saw it was for Gurley and I confirmed that there was someone crazier than I was. 

Gurley has finished top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, RB1 in 2 of those seasons (17 and 18)

Over the last 10 years, the only RBs to finish in the top 5 ppr 4 or more times are:

AP: 5 finishes, 1 RB1

Arian Foster: 4 finishes

Marshawn Lynch: 4 finishes

Over the last 10 years not a single back finished 1st more than 1 time, except Gurley. 

Over the last 10 years, after finishing as RB1, the number of RBs who finished top 5 the following year: 2 not counting Gurley in 17/18. 

While I agree that Gurleys name belongs next to these guys, the odds are not in his favor to finish top 5 if he had a good knee. 

ETA: I agree, he is the only one over the last 10 years to break 2 trends (back to back RB1 and RB1 to Top5 consecutive years), but can we expect him to put up another outlier of a year? If anyone can, it's a healthy Gurley... problem is he isnt healthy
Gambler’s fallacy.

 
I guess you missed the part where I wrote THIS SEASON in all caps.

You know, the two words that I intentionally put the most emphasis on. 

Hope you're having a good Memorial Day weekend, old sport. <3

 
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Interesting. Thanks for explaining where your volume was coming from. 

IMO if the offense remains exactly the same volume, the total rushes will drop as the team relies more on Goffs growth as a passer. I think this bodes well for Henderson. 

If the coach is talking about a Kamara type role for Henderson that could mean he gets the vast majority of Gurleys targets in an effort to keep Gurley healthy for the long haul. Gurley still has significant fantasy value; as said earlier hes still the guy punching it in within 5 yards, but one of the major influences on his fantasy value has been his involvement in the passing game, which IMO decreases significantly this year. 
Just to be clear the coach never mentioned a Kamara type role for Henderson (he actually called him a CoP back), it was the GM that tossed out the comparison.

 
Just to be clear the coach never mentioned a Kamara type role for Henderson (he actually called him a CoP back), it was the GM that tossed out the comparison.
Anyway that's just hot air. Kamara has his role because he is Alvin Kamara. No matter what coach or GM envisions, a player is who he is.

 
Henderson hasn’t shown the ability to be a plus receiver. He’s adequate, but his real value as a pass-catcher comes from his decent (but not great) ability to be dynamic after the catch.

The receiving production I’m seeing mentioned in this thread is a REAL stretch. Make no mistake, Henderson isn’t the type of guy who’ll make McVay use him like DJ & some of the better receiving backs in the league. He’s somewhat limited, but certainly good enough to be used in space (similar to how how he was used at Memphis).

 
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Anyway that's just hot air. Kamara has his role because he is Alvin Kamara. No matter what coach or GM envisions, a player is who he is.
Agreed. The Kamara/Henderson comparison is one of the most outlandish ones I’ve seen (EVER).

The GM didn’t compare Henderson to Kamara as a player (in the article I saw). He only said they had plans to use him as a “Kamara-type element in their offense” which doesn’t indicate the number of touches they anticipate or even expected production.

 
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I think most pro Henderson folks realize that Gurley offers a major hurdle toward living up to our expectations 

I think a lot rides on Gurleys knee and McVays gameplan, which no one really knows right now.

News isnt good regarding his knee, that's for sure. Regardless of whether Henderson meets some personal weight/BMI threshold, or didnt catch x passes in college... He is a homerun back who is in one of (if not the) best offense in the league with a great RB with a pretty bad knee in front of him- a condition that cant be fixed unless he wants to retire. 

 
Hypothetical question: If news came out today that Gurley couldnt play again, how high would DH go in rookie drafts? 
Routinely top 3.  

#1 for me if that was the case

Shoot it doesnt seem crazy to take about 8 different guys at #1 right now.  This is quite the weak draft class at the top

 
How many players have been seriously limited by knee injuries the last 15 years? Danario Alexander and? Kelce  had micro fracture surgery, Reggie Bush. They never seemed held back after. I just don’t see how this is news at this point. Yeah it’s probably a 70/30 time share but is Gurley retiring and on his way out? I just can’t see it.

As far as the rams trading up for Henderson. I’d say their 3 points in the super bowl had a lot to do with it. They didn’t have a good cop back and went and got one. He has average speed, below average agility and not much power. There’s a lot of red flags even if he was drafted to be a starter. 

I drafted him in one league but I’m shopping him if the hype gets rolling. Maybe I’m wrong but it would be a real anomaly. He doesn’t profile as anything but a backup. 

Anyways I’ll let the 5 guys posting get back to work.

 
I think people are underestimating how bad Gurley really is

Hypothetical question: If news came out today that Gurley couldnt play again, how high would DH go in rookie drafts? 
Seems like a bit of an overreaction to a news article that doesn't actually have any new information in it. As a counter point, if Gurley and the team did have real fear that he 'couldn't play again' do they really wait until the 3rd to draft a replacement? It wasn't a loaded RB class by any means so, maybe? Still, seems that a team that depends on stellar RB play would spend more draft capital in that case. Everything they've done has been in the "hedging their bets" and reducing workload mode, rather than replacement mode, IMO. I'd be shocked if Gurley doesn't get the lions share of work and fantasy points in that backfield this season.

 
I think pro-Henderson folks are underestimating Malcolm Brown. I’m not questioning Henderson’s COP role. The Rams have been pretty open about their plans so he could easily out-touch Brown as long as Gurley is healthy.

If Henderson is going to have the type of long-term value being discussed in this thread, he’s going to need to become their starter. There’s three big issues, though.

Number one is he doesn’t have typical feature back traits. Secondly, it sounds like the Rams view him as a COP. Last but not least is overcoming competition for the job such as Brown, who does everything well, not to mention the strong 2020 RB class should Gurley have problems this season.

 
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I think pro-Henderson folks are underestimating Malcolm Brown. I’m not questioning Henderson’s COP role. The Rams have been pretty open about their plans so he could easily out-touch Brown as long as Gurley is healthy.

If Henderson is going to have the type of long-term value being discussed in this thread, he’s going to need to become their starter. There’s three big issues, though.

Number one is he doesn’t have typical feature back traits. Secondly, it sounds like the Rams view him as a COP. Last but not least is overcoming competition for the job such as Brown, who does everything well, not to mention the strong 2020 RB class should Gurley have problems this season.


Yes. Brown’s 50 carries for 200 yds and 7 catches for 50 yds should take a huge bite out of Henderson’s production this year.  He is a guy who is great at everything while Henderson is just what - a gadget player?

 
Yes. Brown’s 50 carries for 200 yds and 7 catches for 50 yds should take a huge bite out of Henderson’s production this year.  He is a guy who is great at everything while Henderson is just what - a gadget player?
I didn’t say Brown was great at everything. He does everything well. 

I also didn’t call Henderson a gadget player. Henderson is a traditional COP-type. He’s got specific skills that can be utilized, but doesn’t have long-term feature back traits.

 
I didn’t say Brown was great at everything. He does everything well. 

I also didn’t call Henderson a gadget player. Henderson is a traditional COP-type. He’s got specific skills that can be utilized, but doesn’t have long-term feature back traits.


I am truly astounded at how Gurley has managed to hold off Brown throughout his career.  Probably only due to the Rams trying to justify the draft capital invested.

 
Boom goes the dynamite. Sorry to those of you with early drafts or who have been crowing that anything above 1.07 is too early:

https://sleeper.app/topic/170000000000000000/438373780314648576
Assuming Henderson lives up to what some expect, he's still at best as good as Gurey. He wont take over the job outright. If Gurley can even handle 200 touches, that seriosly caps Henderson's upside. 

Now, if Gurleys knees are so bad he cant even pull that much, or they effect his performance, then yeah they're a lot worse then we think.

 
I am truly astounded at how Gurley has managed to hold off Brown throughout his career.  Probably only due to the Rams trying to justify the draft capital invested.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Brown.

Henderson has a lot of other issues to overcome before he’ll become even as close to as valuable as some have indicated.

 
Seems like a bit of an overreaction to a news article that doesn't actually have any new information in it. 
I didnt say it was going to happen. It was a worst case scenario for Gurley hypothetical situation.

I dont think it's fact, I'm just gauging where people would have him if he had the best possible scenario. 

Reading between the lines, I think his knee is in a much worse condition than most here are willing to accept. That will become apparent pretty quickly as things get going 

 
Assuming Henderson lives up to what some expect, he's still at best as good as Gurey. He wont take over the job outright. If Gurley can even handle 200 touches, that seriosly caps Henderson's upside. 

Now, if Gurleys knees are so bad he cant even pull that much, or they effect his performance, then yeah they're a lot worse then we think.
upside as good as Gurley is about as good as it can get... But I'm probably reading that wrong. 

I agree completely with this 

DH wont take the job from Gurley unless his knee is so bad he cant even handle 200 touches. His knee may not be there yet, but I honestly think it's possible or hes very close

 
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I didnt say it was going to happen. It was a worst case scenario for Gurley hypothetical situation.

I dont think it's fact, I'm just gauging where people would have him if he had the best possible scenario. 

Reading between the lines, I think his knee is in a much worse condition than most here are willing to accept. That will become apparent pretty quickly as things get going 
:goodposting:

 
I wouldn’t worry too much about Brown.

Henderson has a lot of other issues to overcome before he’ll become even as close to as valuable as some have indicated.


Maybe some day he’ll be as good as Brown and in his best year will manage his way onto the field for an average of 3.5 carries and 0.5 catches per game.  Probably not though.

:kicksrock:

 
Malcolm Brown is a JAG

Gurley's knee a big concern   My Link

And Henderson is downright explosive

At what point to do we start bumping misguided posts in this thread.

Don't ignore the simple math here fellas.

 
This isnt the Gurley thread, but it applies here..

The fact that Gurley continues to battle intermittent edema to the knee is a major red flag. It's a bigger issue than most here may people realize.

To start to inhibit the Quadriceps, all it takes is 20mLs of fluid. Think about that... as a dad, the first thing that comes to mind is the child medicine Tylenol syringes... 4 of those. That's not much.

So if Gurley is having edema issues, he certainly has lost power in that leg. This ends up causing more force to go through the boney structures, which are already compromised, which leads to further breakdown of the joint, causing more pain and edema, which continues to feed the cycle. 

This can ultimately end with a major injury or significant physical limitations to try and control the edema cycle. 

Gurley has arthritis and knee issues likely due to his 2014 acl tear, which I can go into further detail about. It's a little earlier than I would have expected, but considering the workload he has had in his football career, I'm not surprised. This will only get progressively worse, and considering the speed at which it has progressed since his ACL tear/repair, I'd say hes on a fast progression. This is why I hold the opinion I do on DH. He is closer than most people think to the best opportunity in the NFL

ETA: Gurley has tried stem cell therapy. This is a fairly new, unproven. and largely ineffective treatment as a last ditch effort. For the normal population, this is a last resort to try and avoid a knee replacement. It might buy you 6 months, but it's something you have to get regularly to have any relief, if you get any relief... for the average person. For a guy with the demands as Gurley puts on his knee... the prognosis is not good IMO. If his knee were on the mild to moderate side of things, hed probably have gotten microfracture this offseason- which many of you know my feelings on that- but the fact that he didnt makes me think he wasnt a candidate. Again, red flag. 

 
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This isnt the Gurley thread, but it applies here..

The fact that Gurley continues to battle intermittent edema to the knee is a major red flag. It's a bigger issue than most here may people realize.

To start to inhibit the Quadriceps, all it takes is 20mLs of fluid. Think about that... as a dad, the first thing that comes to mind is the child medicine Tylenol syringes... 4 of those. That's not much.

So if Gurley is having edema issues, he certainly has lost power in that leg. This ends up causing more force to go through the boney structures, which are already compromised, which leads to further breakdown of the joint, causing more pain and edema, which continues to feed the cycle. 

This can ultimately end with a major injury or significant physical limitations to try and control the edema cycle. 

Gurley has arthritis and knee issues likely due to his 2014 acl tear, which I can go into further detail about. It's a little earlier than I would have expected, but considering the workload he has had in his football career, I'm not surprised. This will only get progressively worse, and considering the speed at which it has progressed since his ACL tear/repair, I'd say hes on a fast progression. This is why I hold the opinion I do on DH. He is closer than most people think to the best opportunity in the NFL
But is he on steroids, doc?

 
The sarcasm is unnecessary. Everything I said is medical fact
Forgive me my skepticism. I’m seeing message board speculation, not medical fact. I just think it’s worth reminding people that our board MD has made some pretty crazy claims in the past, before they go making roster moves based on this stuff.

 
The sarcasm is unnecessary. Everything I said is medical fact. if you dont appreciate the info, move on
I think he was just having fun. Pretty sure he was trying to get a lighthearted doctor joke response out of you. :)

 
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Forgive me my skepticism. I’m seeing message board speculation, not medical fact. I just think it’s worth reminding people that our board MD has made some pretty crazy claims in the past, before they go making roster moves based on this stuff.
Its medical fact that an ACL tear increases the likelihood of arthritic changes

It's a medical fact that 20ccs of fluid is enough to start inhibiting the qaudriceps.

It's a medical fact that weak quads put more compressive force on the joint, and this can lead to further progression of arthritic changes

It's a medical fact that arthritis is a progressive condition and can only be cured at this point by cutting it out

It's a fact that Gurley has been reported to have arthritis and edema issues, therefore it's a fact that if he continues to battle with edema, his chances of further injury or damage are increased

 
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Its medical fact that an ACL tear increases the likelihood of arthritic changes

It's a medical fact that 20ccs of fluid is enough to start inhibiting the qaudriceps.

It's a medical fact that weak quads put more compressive force on the joint, and this can lead to further progression of arthritic changes

It's a fact that Gurley has had edema issues, therefore it's a fact that if he continues to battle with edema, his chances of further injury or damage are increased
Oh and I’m surely on the side that’s worried about his knee. I’ve traded him away in both leagues I owned him at a discount (but still got decent deals).

 
Gurley's knee a big concern   My Link
Article states theres medium-long term concern about Gurley's knees. Henderson is mostly thought of as a medium long play to begin with, so I'm not sure this news is much of a revelation for him. Much bigger deal for Gurley owners.

 
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How many players have been seriously limited by knee injuries the last 15 years? Danario Alexander and? Kelce  had micro fracture surgery, Reggie Bush. They never seemed held back after. I just don’t see how this is news at this point. Yeah it’s probably a 70/30 time share but is Gurley retiring and on his way out? I just can’t see it.

As far as the rams trading up for Henderson. I’d say their 3 points in the super bowl had a lot to do with it. They didn’t have a good cop back and went and got one. He has average speed, below average agility and not much power. There’s a lot of red flags even if he was drafted to be a starter. 

I drafted him in one league but I’m shopping him if the hype gets rolling. Maybe I’m wrong but it would be a real anomaly. He doesn’t profile as anything but a backup. 
I think you are wrong to think that Henderson only has average speed. He is faster on video than his combine metrics which were also faster than an average time for his position.

Maybe 4 49 is average for a corner. Not a RB 

I also disagree with your statement that he has below average agility. He was top 5 for forced tackles missed. As I said before, watch him at  half speed and you will see his moves and footwork more clearly. He moves so fast easy to miss the head fakes and so on he uses to set defenders up. When he hits it hes gone.

He isnt a powerful RB between the tackles I assume because he wasnt used like that. They had another RB in that role many of his long runs do start up the middle though. He has great burst and decent contact balance, good pad level.

What you haven't mentioned is that Henderson is a very good receiver 

I just dont want you to sell him short of that's what you want to do.

 
This isnt the Gurley thread, but it applies here..

The fact that Gurley continues to battle intermittent edema to the knee is a major red flag. It's a bigger issue than most here may people realize.

To start to inhibit the Quadriceps, all it takes is 20mLs of fluid. Think about that... as a dad, the first thing that comes to mind is the child medicine Tylenol syringes... 4 of those. That's not much.

So if Gurley is having edema issues, he certainly has lost power in that leg. This ends up causing more force to go through the boney structures, which are already compromised, which leads to further breakdown of the joint, causing more pain and edema, which continues to feed the cycle. 

This can ultimately end with a major injury or significant physical limitations to try and control the edema cycle. 

Gurley has arthritis and knee issues likely due to his 2014 acl tear, which I can go into further detail about. It's a little earlier than I would have expected, but considering the workload he has had in his football career, I'm not surprised. This will only get progressively worse, and considering the speed at which it has progressed since his ACL tear/repair, I'd say hes on a fast progression. This is why I hold the opinion I do on DH. He is closer than most people think to the best opportunity in the NFL

ETA: Gurley has tried stem cell therapy. This is a fairly new, unproven. and largely ineffective treatment as a last ditch effort. For the normal population, this is a last resort to try and avoid a knee replacement. It might buy you 6 months, but it's something you have to get regularly to have any relief, if you get any relief... for the average person. For a guy with the demands as Gurley puts on his knee... the prognosis is not good IMO. If his knee were on the mild to moderate side of things, hed probably have gotten microfracture this offseason- which many of you know my feelings on that- but the fact that he didnt makes me think he wasnt a candidate. Again, red flag
I am certainly not going to argue against your knowledge, being it’s your profession and you certainly know more about this then I.  But I do have first hand experience with knee issues and knee arthritis. At 43 I’ve had 3 knee surgeries, arthritis in both knees with the right being very advanced and am currently doing everything I can to hold off the replacement of both.  Having just finished my 3rd round of PRP I’m currently discussing Stem for my right knee, what I can add is Dr’s opinions vary on the effectiveness and need.  My Doctor is extremely experienced (Chargers team dr for years as well as the main Motocross doc) in this field and in my discussions with him he’s very positive about stem cell therapy.  My point being with all of this is there is a ton of unknown.  If his knee is like mine now, he’s done.   If it’s like mine were 10 yrs ago when I first had surgery and started dealing he’s going to be fine managing it for a couple (2ish my guess not knowing anything) more years.   As a fan fingers crossed it’s the latter. 

Bringing this back to DH, if it’s bad for Gurley DH is going to be a monster in this system.  If not he’s going to be tough to roster outside of best ball and dynasty this year. 

 
Everything I said is medical fact. if you dont appreciate the info, move on
Just to be clear, you have never examined Gurley or reviewed his medical records, correct? And, given your apparent profession, I'm sure you would agree that different people experience the same medical condition differently, with different outcomes and timelines, right?

You post your medical facts blended with opinion about severity, timeline, and expected outcome as affects his workload. But you don't do a great job of separating the facts from the opinion.

How many offseasons now have you been predicting the demise of Melvin Gordon?

Offering useful knowledge to the forum is great, but your delivery sometimes leaves something to be desired. :2cents:  

 
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I am certainly not going to argue against your knowledge, being it’s your profession and you certainly know more about this then I.  But I do have first hand experience with knee issues and knee arthritis. At 43 I’ve had 3 knee surgeries, arthritis in both knees with the right being very advanced and am currently doing everything I can to hold off the replacement of both.  Having just finished my 3rd round of PRP I’m currently discussing Stem for my right knee, what I can add is Dr’s opinions vary on the effectiveness and need.  My Doctor is extremely experienced (Chargers team dr for years as well as the main Motocross doc) in this field and in my discussions with him he’s very positive about stem cell therapy.  My point being with all of this is there is a ton of unknown.  If his knee is like mine now, he’s done.   If it’s like mine were 10 yrs ago when I first had surgery and started dealing he’s going to be fine managing it for a couple (2ish my guess not knowing anything) more years.   As a fan fingers crossed it’s the latter. 

Bringing this back to DH, if it’s bad for Gurley DH is going to be a monster in this system.  If not he’s going to be tough to roster outside of best ball and dynasty this year. 
I can forward you a power point that summarizes the more promising evidence for PRP to treat arthritic changes in the average person. That may have a very exciting future in orthopedics 

 
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