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Hankmoody

Dynasty - who do you trade Saquon for?

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11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Word is that PT Barnum never actually said "There's a sucker born every minute", but that doesn't mean it isn't a true statement. 

Barkley owner laughed all the way to the bank on this one. 

Yup. And he got...younger, too.

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Here's the shark move, IMO: 

Instead of overpaying for a hurt/risky Barkley, check the Barkley owner's roster & see if that injury tanks their 2020 chances.

If that owner has other pieces worth acquiring, perhaps they'll be more open to dealing for draft picks/younger assets if they decide they're in "build for the future" mode. They're more likely to make deals to build for the future now than when they had a healthy Barkley.  If I'm a Barkley owner with a borderline competitive team, I might deal a Tyreek Hill off a slow start for a lesser WR + future 1st or an up & coming RB2 + picks or something like that. 💡

IMO you'll never be able to truly buy low on a guy like Barkley as the team has too much invested in him. But you might be able to pick around the edges to get a solid player to help you win-now. Happy hunting! 

 

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1 minute ago, leave a whisper said:

CMC or Zeke ...... package that includes J Taylor -- end of list   (a hold for anything else/less)  :2cents:

I find that just  completely unrealistic.  No Taylor, CMC or Zeke owner is going to pay that for Barkley right now.  Given his situation on the Giants, I'm not sure you'd get that for a healthy Barkley after 2 weeks of this season, much less a dude out for the year. 

What I'm reading is, "he's not for sale". 

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10 hours ago, rockaction said:

 I think Daniel Jones is better than you're giving him credit for, but I could be very wrong,

No quarterback in the superbowl era has given up more turnovers per game than Jones.  He's had only one game where he hasn't turned the ball over.  Of his 15 games in ten of them he's had multiple turnovers.

He's worse than Jamis Winston.

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11 hours ago, rockaction said:

I think Daniel Jones is better than you're giving him credit for,

I agree with this. I do not regret acquiring him in Superflex at the cost of Sutton (prior to the season ending knee injury) - I see a lot of improvement from year 1 to year 2. He hasn't fumbled. He's holding the ball with both hands when pressure comes. And even in the face of that Blitzburg defense, he stood tall and completed some tough passes - the Int at the end of that drive was bad, but the drive itself was remarkable. He showed enough to me that I have confidence he'll get better IF that OL comes together. 

Everyone giving him grief for not feeling the pressure is failing to acknowledge that if the OL did it's job, there wouldn't be such a ridiculous amount of pressure. No QB couild be expected to avoid sacks/hits behind that line. 

As long as the Giants make efforts to improve their OL, I'm not worried about Daniel Jones - I think he's going to be a very good QB for them. Not this year though.  

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6 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

No quarterback in the superbowl era has given up more turnovers per game than Jones.  He's had only one game where he hasn't turned the ball over.  Of his 15 games in ten of them he's had multiple turnovers.

He's worse than Jamis Winston.

Last year it was the fumbles that did him in. He may be statistically worse than Winston, but he is not worse than Winston. Young QBs improve. Jones will improve. 

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I would be hesitant to trade away any elite RB for Saquon Barkley at this point. We don't know that Saquon will be the same back post-surgery.  Most young backs recover well, but there are no certainties.  Todd Gurley is not the same back he appeared to be prior to his injury. Terrell Davis never returned to his pre-injury form.  Sure, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles recovered well.  Saquon's age and the fact that he suffered this injury so early in the season favor a full recovery in time for the 2021 season.  If I am a Saquon dynasty owner, I would not trade him for less than one of the elite backs, and if I were trading for Saquon, I would not offer an elite back.  I would offer Cook or Jones or Mixon or Henry, or perhaps even CEH or Taylor.  I might give Chubb or Sanders or Jacobs, depending on the rest of my team and my perceived ability to win this season, but I am probably not trading any of those for Saquon this early in the season.  I would not give Zeke, Kamara, or McCaffrey.

Edited by socrates
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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Last year it was the fumbles that did him in. He may be statistically worse than Winston, but he is not worse than Winston. Young QBs improve. Jones will improve. 

The odds are against him ever putting up even a single season as good as one of Winston's.  I'm not a scout, but I saw a kid who locked onto a single receiver each play and telegraphed his throws.  He makes plays, but he doesn't appear to be improving as an NFL QB. (Ironically, this is essentially the reason that Winston isn't a starter even after the "good" years he's had).

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9 minutes ago, socrates said:

I would be hesitant to trade away any elite RB for Saquon Barkley at this point. We don't know that Saquon will be the same back post-surgery.  Most young backs recover well, but there are no certainties.  Todd Gurley is not the same back he appeared to be prior to his injury. Terrell Davis never returned to his pre-injury form.  Sure, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles recovered well.  Saquon's age and the fact that he suffered this injury so early in the season favor a full recovery in time for the 2021 season.  If I am a Saquon dynasty owner, I would not trade him for less than one of the elite backs, and if I were trading for Saquon, I would not offer an elite back.  I would offer Cook or Jones or Mixon or Henry, or perhaps even CEH or Taylor.  I might give Chubb or Sanders or Jacobs, depending on the rest of my team and my perceived ability to win this season, but I am probably not trading any of those for Saquon this early in the season.  I would not give Zeke, Kamara, or McCaffrey.

I'm not even sure if I'd even give up Henry or Jones based on contract status and stability.  

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

The odds are against him ever putting up even a single season as good as one of Winston's.  I'm not a scout,

Clearly. 

1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

 

but I saw a kid who locked onto a single receiver each play and telegraphed his throws.  he makes plays, but he doesn't appear to be improving as an NFL QB. (Ironically, this is essentially the reason that Winston isn't a starter even after the "good" years he's had).

I didn't see that at all, but hey we all have our takes. I see a ton of improvement from season 1 to season 2 of his young career. And under that type of duress, I'm not sure how fair it is to evaluate his reads considering he only has 1.2 seconds before the OL turns into a screen door.  I guess you think we've seen his ceiling already though, so...

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3 minutes ago, Blick said:

I'm not even sure if I'd even give up Henry or Jones based on contract status and stability.  

Agreed. There isn't a player selected in the top 12 picks of redraft that I'd pay for Barkley right now. Maybe not in the top 24. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I see a ton of improvement from season 1 to season 2 of his young career

Where has he improved?  What have you seen in two games vs 14 last year?  QBR of 50.7 this year, last year it was 55.7.

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I acquired Barkley from a contender for James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Le'Veon Bell.  Ingram and Fournette were his other viable RBs.  I was not really in contention before the trade and was happy to take a pass on the rest of this season while hopefully improving my chances next year.  12 teams, 30 man rosters, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Where has he improved?  What have you seen in two games vs 14 last year?  QBR of 50.7 this year, last year it was 55.7.

I said it already: He's standing  taller against pressure and completing tough passes. He led a very good drive downfield (that ended in a pick, but still). He hasn't fumbled the ball, despite getting the crap kicked out of him. 

That OL is a train wreck - his QBR is meaningless right now. It's the nuances of the game. The TD pass that hit Slayton in stride was sharp.  Finding Saquan for the 1st down across the field throwing on the run showed patience. 

In a season like this you have to look for the little things. 

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1 minute ago, flat_earth said:

I acquired Barkley from a contender for James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Le'Veon Bell.  Ingram and Fournette were his other viable RBs.  I was not really in contention before the trade and was happy to take a pass on the rest of this season while hopefully improving my chances next year.  12 teams, 30 man rosters, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX

THIS is a great trade.

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1 minute ago, flat_earth said:

I acquired Barkley from a contender for James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Le'Veon Bell.  Ingram and Fournette were his other viable RBs.  I was not really in contention before the trade and was happy to take a pass on the rest of this season while hopefully improving my chances next year.  12 teams, 30 man rosters, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX

That's a fairly solid deal for you - I'm not a big believer in any of the 3 backs you traded long-term, though all have upside. For a win-now team, that's a package sure to help for 2020, and if Barkley comes back 100% you scored. I would have liked it a lot better if you coulda kept Drake though. Still think you paid a little too much. 

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18 hours ago, Pigskin Fanatic said:

I never played in a dynasty before so pardon the ignorance here, but I'm always curious how different a dynasty operates. In a dynasty league, are there pretty much teams that are playing for a win this year and a clear separation of teams that, after two weeks, already throw in the towel? I mean, I get trying to get Saquon for future since you'd be willing to part with him only under this circumstance, but why would they offer an actual, viable winner for this year like EZE, Henry, or even Cook? I guess maybe Henry, but i don't think he's that old yet. I realize this is off topic for what you're asking, so tia for any response.

In my experience in dynasty, on average in a typical 12 team league there are maybe 6 teams with a legitimate chance to win, 2 teams who are in a full on rebuild and 4 teams who think they can compete but are stuck in that mediocre no mans land and should be fully rebuilding.  

If you’re not realistically competing this year then all guys like Zeke, Henry, etc. are doing is hurting your draft position for next year.  So you possibly end up with the 1.05 instead of the 1.01.  Buying injured players can be a great strategy for a dynasty rebuild.  

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49 minutes ago, flat_earth said:

I acquired Barkley from a contender for James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Le'Veon Bell.  Ingram and Fournette were his other viable RBs.  I was not really in contention before the trade and was happy to take a pass on the rest of this season while hopefully improving my chances next year.  12 teams, 30 man rosters, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX

I can’t believe someone would make that deal.  There’s a legitimate chance that all 3 of those players are worthless this time next year.  

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6 minutes ago, Raback said:

I can’t believe someone would make that deal.  There’s a legitimate chance that all 3 of those players are worthless this time next year.  

Seems clear the team acquiring them is focused on winning this year. 

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Nobody is giving you healthy Barkley value now.  You need to hold for dynasty, you won't get fair value now.

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You guys should subscribe. Jene Bramel writes a quick blurby update on Barkley today that crystallizes what injuries he suffered and how it "complicates" his rehab. I'm not going to rehash it here, because it's not fair to the host of the site -- you guys should get a scrip if you want that kind of info and anlaysis.

Shameless but worthy plug for the board.

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20 hours ago, BearsFan4Life said:

14 Team - NO PPR

I have an offer of Mixon and Conner for Barkley and my 2021 1st Round Round Pick given to me.  Trying to go straight 2 for 1 without the pick.  Other team is going into a rebuild so this is my best shot at getting something for Barkley.  I also lost McCaffrey for some time.

I would start Mahomes, Henry, Mixon, Nuk, Lockett or Conner, Kelce until CMC returns.

 

I bet you won't get Mixon and Conner without giving more than Barkley.  I'd certainly throw in a 3rd. And almost certainly a (probable) late 2nd to get that done.

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Seems clear the team acquiring them is focused on winning this year. 

I get that but it’s still dynasty, and even this year I don’t think any one of them is a clear difference maker who would push a team over the top. 

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5 minutes ago, Raback said:

I get that but it’s still dynasty, and even this year I don’t think any one of them is a clear difference maker who would push a team over the top. 

Compared to the blank left by Barkley & what was listed as their depth I think Connor definitely helps replace some of what they lost, and Drake still has potential for this year and beyond. 

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9 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Went 1:1 for Jacobs 

also Chubb + 2021 1st for Barkley

 

on trade finder

Man - I'm just not seeing the upside to either of those deals. Jacobs and the Raiders seem to have a very balanced offense going, where he's their centerpiece. Barkley has to come back 100%, and the Giants would have to rebuild their OL for this to work in the favor of the team that dealt Jacobs. 

Chubb + 2021 1st same deal. I don't see the Browns getting worse next year, nor do I see them moving away from Chubb. And the 2021 1st? Heck, I wouldn't give Chubb straight up to take on Barkley's situation. 

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I think Jacobs is pretty fair, even though earlier I said the only one I’d trade is EZE. His real value is starting to catch up with me, or it’s the idea of having to wait a full year to see his name in my lineup again. 

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6 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

I just traded him for Josh Jacobs straight up. 

Nice pull. 

One consideration no one has mentioned is where Saquan would have gone in redraft next year had he played all 16. 

Arguably you got Jacobs for a 2nd, maybe even a 3rd rounder which is pretty solid. 
:thumbup:

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Nice pull. 

One consideration no one has mentioned is where Saquan would have gone in redraft next year had he played all 16. 

Arguably you got Jacobs for a 2nd, maybe even a 3rd rounder which is pretty solid. 
:thumbup:

This was touched on higher up in the thread but there are only a few teams in any given league that have the right mix of factors to consider a deal like this.

1) Must be willing to make a core-altering deal with lots of risk.  Probably 1/4 of the teams in this league are too scared to do much besides nibble around the edges of their rosters, much less trade their starting RB stable in week 3 for a guy who just tore his ACL, meniscus, and MCL.

2)  Must be willing to accept a rebuilding year, maybe more than one.  It seems like a given that any owner should be willing to take a pass on the season and rebuild when it makes sense, but I know multiple owners who just cannot bring themselves to be uncompetitive every single year.  Even if they start out acquiring picks they end up trading them away when they are in contention near the end of the season.

3)  Must have the young(ish) RBs to trade to even get in the door of negotiations.  I get that Drake and Conner are not elite guys, but they are due for heavy workloads on good teams, and they both still have futures beyond this year.  These mid-upper level starters are kind of the sweet spot for this type of deal.  They can actually help the receiving team compete this year, they some upside in the future, but are just old enough that a rebuilding team should be thinking about moving them ASAP.  I definitely would not have moved CEH or Taylor or Sanders in a deal for Barkley.  Just the way I roll.  If I had owned those guys I would have just kept them as my core instead of hoping for a return to form by Barkley 12+ months from now (along with an improvement by his team).

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3 minutes ago, flat_earth said:

I definitely would not have moved CEH or Taylor or Sanders in a deal for Barkley.  Just the way I roll.  If I had owned those guys I would have just kept them as my core instead of hoping for a return to form by Barkley 12+ months from now (along with an improvement by his team).

completely agree. You’ve already got the core building block to use as a foundational player. And moreover, yours has an intact knee. That seems like a bonus. 

Even Zeke is young enough that I wouldn’t go chasing Barkley’s potential assumed future production. Same with CMC, Kamara - these are all foundational players. 

Mixon, Conner, Drake - I could see moving any of them to take a shot at Barkley, but only if I wasn’t near contention this year.  Even then, color me risk averse, but I prefer my big name Trade acquisitions to have intact knee tendons. Especially since paying Conner/Drake isn’t exactly “buying low”. 

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Conner and Drake should still never go for Barkley. Both are at the end of their deals with their current clubs, and they're 26 and 27. That's ancient for running backs. We were ready to write Conner off earlier this offseason. I paid and then got a two for Conner (I changed my mind). I can't fathom that Conner/Drake/Bell deal for Barkley from the Barkley side, and I'm the one in here pooh-pooing his value. 

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51 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

I just traded him for Josh Jacobs straight up. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys? That’s the team landing Jacobs on trade finder 

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1 minute ago, fruity pebbles said:

This is great. I offered Barkley for Jacobs verbally as a counter to a guy who offered me Allen Robinson and Gaskins for Barkley. He balked at it as a gross over pay. 
 

We talked about one trade completed yesterday of Jacobs for Barkley and now I have another to alert him to once it’s on trade finder

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23 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Conner and Drake should still never go for Barkley. Both are at the end of their deals with their current clubs, and they're 26 and 27. That's ancient for running backs. We were ready to write Conner off earlier this offseason. I paid and then got a two for Conner (I changed my mind). I can't fathom that Conner/Drake/Bell deal for Barkley from the Barkley side, and I'm the one in here pooh-pooing his value. 

The only scenario that makes sense is that it’s a $$$ league & team Barkley had a championship roster other than Barkley. Truly a cash year move with enough $ on the line that such a move is justified. Conner should provide RB2 returns, and Drake could easily be flex-worthy. Bell’s inclusion is a head scratcher, but whatever. 

And again, that’s *only* if the kitty is big enough that if you win it all you’re ok with sucking for a few years. 
 

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51 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

One consideration no one has mentioned is where Saquan would have gone in redraft next year had he played all 16.

This is a pretty prudent point.  I think we all still expect Barkley would have been able to live up to his draft position at this point in the season - there's no way the giants don't change something about their o-line so that he's constantly getting hit 3-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  He's too good to run for under 20 yards every game with five catches.

But what if a healthy Barkley never got /better enough/ as the year went on?  What if the giant's o-line kept him around 50 rushing yards a game?  Where would he go next year with that kind of season?  End of the first round on scholarship?  End of the second? Looking at it that way and adding in the injury does Barkley for Jacobs (who so far looks like a first round talent next year in redraft) become a huge steal?

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12 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

The only scenario that makes sense is that it’s a $$$ league & team Barkley had a championship roster other than Barkley. Truly a cash year move with enough $ on the line that such a move is justified. Conner should provide RB2 returns, and Drake could easily be flex-worthy. Bell’s inclusion is a head scratcher, but whatever. 

And again, that’s *only* if the kitty is big enough that if you win it all you’re ok with sucking for a few years. 
 

It's a $100 entry league, but I don't think the amount matters TBH.  Some guys are just unwilling to throw in the towel and accept a lost season in the third week of the season.  Sitting on an injured Barkley, losing games all year because he thinks he should be able to get a Josh Jacobs in return was not going to happen with this owner.  And since you can start up to 4RBs in this league, they are very hard to pry away from owners.  There are a couple teams with deep RB stables but they are all contenders and they can actually start them all.  No way they are trading a Jacobs for Barkley.

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10 hours ago, foxco said:

Barkley was just moved in one of my 12 team ppr dynasty leagues (wasn't involved):

 

Barkley

for

Miles Sanders, Juju, Justin Herbert, '21 2nd (would think early now)

Team getting Sanders etc. had only Wentz at QB so Herbert doesn't appear to be a throw-in. 

I would take that so fast

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10 minutes ago, flat_earth said:

It's a $100 entry league, but I don't think the amount matters TBH.  Some guys are just unwilling to throw in the towel and accept a lost season in the third week of the season.  Sitting on an injured Barkley, losing games all year because he thinks he should be able to get a Josh Jacobs in return was not going to happen with this owner.  And since you can start up to 4RBs in this league, they are very hard to pry away from owners.  There are a couple teams with deep RB stables but they are all contenders and they can actually start them all.  No way they are trading a Jacobs for Barkley.

Makes sense. Gotta tip your cap to the die-Hards.

mortgaging his future for a shot at the ‘ship  

Pride is a tough burden to bear sometimes. 

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33 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

This is a pretty prudent point.  I think we all still expect Barkley would have been able to live up to his draft position at this point in the season - there's no way the giants don't change something about their o-line so that he's constantly getting hit 3-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  He's too good to run for under 20 yards every game with five catches.

But what if a healthy Barkley never got /better enough/ as the year went on?  What if the giant's o-line kept him around 50 rushing yards a game?  Where would he go next year with that kind of season?  End of the first round on scholarship?  End of the second? Looking at it that way and adding in the injury does Barkley for Jacobs (who so far looks like a first round talent next year in redraft) become a huge steal?

People are way overreacting to week 1. He had 4 carries in week 2 and 3 of them were longer than his longest carry from week 1.

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The Giants are so bad they are putting Barkley on the Eddie George expressway. He will be good, flash great, but they are never going to put the pieces around him fast enough AND at the same time take enough pressure off him for him to be able to perform in that elite sweet spot while also staying healthy.  

If it were me, I wouldn't sweat selling Barkley one bit given this situation because it means your lostmseason is getting bailed out and you're a contender again right now while also not assuming the future. 

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59 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

People are way overreacting to week 1. He had 4 carries in week 2 and 3 of them were longer than his longest carry from week 1.

4 carries is a somewhat small sample size though compared to week 1. 

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Well my first domino fell.  I trade him in a package essentially for EZE.  Contract league so I lose a few years on the back end but I was gonna lose that anyway with EZE's age and mileage difference.  If I get two full years out of EZE then two more RB2 years it'll be well worth it, and there's the outside shot I get longer from him.

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4 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Well my first domino fell.  I trade him in a package essentially for EZE.  Contract league so I lose a few years on the back end but I was gonna lose that anyway with EZE's age and mileage difference.  If I get two full years out of EZE then two more RB2 years it'll be well worth it, and there's the outside shot I get longer from him.

What package was it?

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

What package was it?

Just pieces parts.  I gave up TBW and Mooney, got Malcolm Brown for spot-starts and some 1 year LB depth.  Nothing that tips the scales in any way in a Barkley for EZE deal.

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On 9/22/2020 at 5:36 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

completely agree. You’ve already got the core building block to use as a foundational player. And moreover, yours has an intact knee. That seems like a bonus. 

Even Zeke is young enough that I wouldn’t go chasing Barkley’s potential assumed future production. Same with CMC, Kamara - these are all foundational players. 

Mixon, Conner, Drake - I could see moving any of them to take a shot at Barkley, but only if I wasn’t near contention this year.  Even then, color me risk averse, but I prefer my big name Trade acquisitions to have intact knee tendons. Especially since paying Conner/Drake isn’t exactly “buying low”. 

So sitting on an offer of Drake, Jeudy, Hunter Henry, James Robinson, and a 2021 2nd rd pick.  Would this be sufficiently "buying low" on Saquon?  For some reason I'm irrationally afraid that Jeudy will turn out be the next Julio.

The only complication is that my team is a prime contender this year.  What do contenders do when they have a chance to get Saquon like this?

The valuations seem to be all over the place right now, at least according to this thread..

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16 hours ago, High Yield CeeDee said:

So sitting on an offer of Drake, Jeudy, Hunter Henry, James Robinson, and a 2021 2nd rd pick.  Would this be sufficiently "buying low" on Saquon?  For some reason I'm irrationally afraid that Jeudy will turn out be the next Julio.

The only complication is that my team is a prime contender this year.  What do contenders do when they have a chance to get Saquon like this?

The valuations seem to be all over the place right now, at least according to this thread..

I just bought Saquon. I'm rebuilding. 12 Team PPR Superflex.

I got Saquon Barkley

I gave Hunt, Brees, DeVante Parker, 2021 1st, and two 2021 3rds.

I still have two more 2021 1sts.

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32 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I just bought Saquon. I'm rebuilding. 12 Team PPR Superflex.

I got Saquon Barkley

I gave Hunt, Brees, DeVante Parker, 2021 1st, and two 2021 3rds.

I still have two more 2021 1sts.

That's a pretty good discount you got.  I took the deal, although I feel like I gave up a bit more. 

Got Saquon for Drake, Jeudy, HHenry, JRobinson, 2021 2nd.

Too bad Drake, Jeudy, and JRob are all about to have huge weeks... but this should pay off starting next year, right?

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