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🐎 *OFFICIAL 2022 Horse Racing Extravaganza Traveling Road Show Thread - Life Gettin' Better At Big Sandy* 🐎 (1 Viewer)

Cowboysfan8 said:
Secret Oath will run against the boys 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/258768/epicenter-secret-oath-confirmed-for-preakness

:popcorn:
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as i said earlier, i'm glad she's running - brings some added juice (with the filly angle) to an event already getting tons of buzz due to our improbable KD winner - plus she's gonna take plenty of coin. 

i do think she is the best 3 yr old filly, no question - Contreras gave her a very #### ride in the Arky or she likely would've given ol' Cyber much more than he bargained for (hence the change to Saez for her Oaks score).

20% win clip ... 3 of the last 15 have been won by the ladies (Rags, Rachel, Swissy) - precedent is certainly here. 

i give her minimal (at best) shot to win this, though (i still think Early Voting is the biggest threat), but i will bet her straight up to finish ahead of Richy.  

 
RICH STRIKE OUT 

Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike will bypass the May 21 Preakness Stakes and wait instead for the June 11 Belmont Stakes, both owner Rick Dawson and trainer Eric Reed said early Thursday afternoon.

:deadhorse:

this takes ALL the starch outta this one, as far as being a national event,  ergo with tons more public money to exploit - ####### A, man ... sport finally has the spotlight, aaaaand there it goes. 

best for the horse and connections, i suppose - i think they would've been embarrased at Pimlico, but wtf do i know? 

:unsure:

 
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The connections big quote is that they don't run a horse unless they think it could win. Obviously they didn't think he  could win.

 
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Leroy Hoard said:
The connections big quote is that they don't run a horse unless they think it could win. Obviously the horse wasn't good enough to win.
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yeah, Reed ain't slingin' any #### - he knows the score. 

would love to see him in Baltimore, but these cats know the price of tea in Mandalay.

still hot on Early Voting, can't say it enough - hope the filly & Epi get banged down hard ... could see Epi at a 9/5 ml favorite - i'll try to beat him with EV - gonna be a horse race, i assure you. 

PS - Richy's jock, ol' Sonny Leon, just got a 4 day sit from his home track ... this is his 5th such of the past year - to call him "agressive" would be a slight understatement - he also supposedly fudged some official docus in WV (Mountaineer/Chucktown) as well. 

 
otb_lifer said:
RICH STRIKE OUT 

Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike will bypass the May 21 Preakness Stakes and wait instead for the June 11 Belmont Stakes, both owner Rick Dawson and trainer Eric Reed said early Thursday afternoon.

:deadhorse:

this takes ALL the starch outta this one, as far as being a national event,  ergo with tons more public money to exploit - ####### A, man ... sport finally has the spotlight, aaaaand there it goes. 

best for the horse and connections, i suppose - i think they would've been embarrased at Pimlico, but wtf do i know? 

:unsure:
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poop 

 
Probably smart. Horse may need some time between starts. And although it’s a myth that speed wins at Pimlico (closers can do very well in the Preakness) it may make sense to wait for the Belmont for this horse. Though closing at 1 1/2 isn’t easy. Big difference than 1 1/4. I was betting against RS no matter what. Looks like he loves CD and is meh everywhere else. 

 
Judge Smails said:
Probably smart. Horse may need some time between starts. And although it’s a myth that speed wins at Pimlico (closers can do very well in the Preakness) it may make sense to wait for the Belmont for this horse. Though closing at 1 1/2 isn’t easy. Big difference than 1 1/4. I was betting against RS no matter what. Looks like he loves CD and is meh everywhere else. 
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Reed quoted as saying the original plan after the Ruby was Peter Pan/Belmont - then 30 minutes prior to Derby deadline, Lukas scratched Ethereal Road, so they pivoted, and shocked the damn world. 

see ya in Elmont, Richy 🐎

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
Nice card at Belmont today. I’ll be around later , anyone else?

@otb_lifer

@-fish-

@Leroy Hoard

@wikkidpissah
@Judge Smails
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5 horse field for the Vagrancy

6 horse field for the RunHappy

6 horse fiield for the ManOWar

... feels like Cali 

:shrug:

at least the Peter Pan has 8 

rest of the non stakes card looks decent, with at least 8-10 runners sprinkled about ... just hope the weather holds, looking awfully misty here all morning. 

 
otb_lifer said:
5 horse field for the Vagrancy

6 horse field for the RunHappy

6 horse fiield for the ManOWar

... feels like Cali 

:shrug:

at least the Peter Pan has 8 

rest of the non stakes card looks decent, with at least 8-10 runners sprinkled about ... just hope the weather holds, looking awfully misty here all morning. 
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Why wouldn’t they have one of those other stakes as race 7 and have an all stakes pick 4?

 
gonna try a warmup with the #1 horse in the first at Monmouth ... off track, like the way she fits in here.  

big win wager. 

hedge on the early double 1,4,9/5,6,7

 
otb_lifer said:
gonna try a warmup with the #1 horse in the first at Monmouth ... off track, like the way she fits in here.  

big win wager. 

hedge on the early double 1,4,9/5,6,7
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we'll take it - nice rail skim in the muck 👍

first at Pimlico, going with the #9 - she has performed well on the off track - 👣 

 
Prat on the favorite tor the Beaugay ... with Irad right next to him in the 2 hole - Chad Brown exacta, cold 2 over 1 

sure, i'll let Flavy Flav whip my ### again. 

i'm with Irad here. 

 
lost in the Prat-tle yesterday was the performance of We the People (outta Constitution, love the name play) in the Peter Pan.

WIRES 'EM

the rains came here yesterday around 3 or so ... track condition was "good" (sealed).

field didn't know what the hell hit them - he was chugging at a pretty decent clip before he was hand held coming home, by an easy 10+ lengths. 

this is gonna be a major player in the Belmont - the form he showed yesterday is that of the motoring style that is so successful at Big Sandy - he can get out to that lead, or attend, then rely on that tactical cruising speed to put them to sleep before he finds that giddyup gear to finish - he had crisp closing fractions yesterday for such an unchallenged horse, and he sure as #### left a bunch in the tank.  

stiffer competition awaits him next month, sure ... but this was textbook route running by Prat and WtP - and on the off chance we have similar weather conditions as yesterday, well ...

this was his 4th career start, and his 3rd win - each victory growing in terms of WOW factor ... but, eh, that Arky - w.t.f.?

i slagged that field, and Oaklawn, aplenty on the KD run-up, and this cat had ZERO interest that day - had an outside post, yeah ... but he basically decided to not give one flying #### after losing the 4 or 5 wide early scrum - cue went up in that rack pdq.

 toss it, because there will be no friggin' jailbreak for the Belmont.  we have a beefy hombre on our hands who now has 4 weeks to freshen up for the Stakes. 

which brings up another point - if Zandy is present for the Belmont, then chances are WtP loses the mount, and that hurts because Prat is schooling fools atm ... would love to see a knockaround circuit plugger like Dylan Davis (who just bagged his 1,000th win this past week) get up in the irons - he's the NYRA's new gym-rat, if you will, and i'd love to see it, but with so many top jocks here for the Spring meet, i'm not holding my breath on this.

 
more from Stakes Saturday ...

Highland Chief winning the Man o' War was as big an upset as Rich Strike, imo ... not necessarily comparable on odds, obviously - but by the magnitude of horses he beat - make no mistake, this was a huge knockout 🥊

prohib fave Yibir gets left at the gate, and the longest shot on the board jumps on the merry go 'round - late run from second fave Gufo and the mighty Yibir - but the Irish invader had juuuuuust enough left to hang on. 

meanwhile, super filly Bella Sofia tangled up with an extremely game Frank's Rockette, giving us one of the best races of the year in The Vagrancy 

now that is a remarkable stretch duel, and they were both flying around that track, finding even more in the stretch to give us this treat ... Bella was overtaken for a second, but battled back like the champ she is ... ol' Frankie got nothing to be ashamed of with this effort, Prat put her in perfect position to take down the better horse, but the class won out.  

 
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Post position draw in 15 minutes, but it's looking like a 9 horse field so not really sure how important that is. 

Keep trying to find an angle, but Epi/Secret Oath/Early Voting is all I can see for the top three.

 
Preakness always seemed like a chalkfest compared to the Derby, but we are coming off two straight 11-1 winners this decade. 🏇🏇

 
Preakness Stakes Post Positions

1. Simplification

2. Creative Minister

3. Fenwick

4. Secret Oath

5. Early Voting

6. Happy Jack

7. Armagnac

8. Epicenter

9. Skippylongstocking

Don't really see anything that's going to affect how I bet this race.   Simplification should be able to get to the front with Early Voting.   Plenty of room for Secret Oath and Epicenter to get into stalking position.   

 
-fish- said:
Preakness Stakes Post Positions

1. Simplification

2. Creative Minister

3. Fenwick

4. Secret Oath

5. Early Voting

6. Happy Jack

7. Armagnac

8. Epicenter

9. Skippylongstocking

Don't really see anything that's going to affect how I bet this race.   Simplification should be able to get to the front with Early Voting.   Plenty of room for Secret Oath and Epicenter to get into stalking position.   
Click to expand...
6/5 on Epicenter 

 
-fish- said:
Don't really see anything that's going to affect how I bet this race.   Simplification should be able to get to the front with Early Voting. 
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Armagnac is the one who's gonna press EV, and that is gonna make the race unfold much better for Epi and S.O.

i thought there would be an overcorrection to the Derby, and EV might get away with :24.3/:48 split here, then crank that speed for the finish - but Armagnac gonna make him work a bit harder than i had hoped for. 

i think Simp tucks in, and falls right alongside Epi & S.O. - can't see Sano sending Simp after his very patient run in the Derby - can't grasp it from that 1 hole at all. 

big wildcard for me here is ol' Happy Jack - Dougie is going first time blinkies ... are they gonna send?  have zero clue, and they really have nothing to lose by going BONSAI!!!! on this lot - he sure as #### ain't gonna factor from the back, lest they wanna keep their streak of 20+ length losses intact. 

i mean ... his pops (Oxbow) won this race 8 yrs ago, from the same post, going wire to wire ... not saying HJ is capable, but if they switch things up and send hard, well, we got a real doozy on our hands. 

i like Deputy Minister & Skippy for minor spoils, and i'll take a swing with both - have at it. 

but if one is just gonna bang the chalk, they're better off sitting this one out ... zero value in the verts if form holds, so why risk it?  r.o.i. is minimal. 

 
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POSITION HORSE ODDS

1 Simplification 6-1

2 Creative Minister 10-1

3 Fenwick 50-1

4 Secret Oath 9-2

5 Early Voting 7-2

6 Happy Jack 30-1

7 Armagnac 12-1

8 Epicenter 6-5

9 Skippylongstocking 20-1

 
- Creative Minister

... he was supplemented in here for the full bug 150k, after bagging an aoc on Oaks Day - that was his 3rd career start, and he's a neck away from being undefeated thus far. 

unraced as a 2 yr old, his first ever outing was a shade over 2 months ago, so this cat is jumping into the fire here.

$180,000 yearling, a McPeek special - they obviously feel he's fit and in great form to plunk down damn near his purchase price to slot him in. 

Bris speed figs have progressed from 84 to 88 to 108 ... highest Bris fig for both Epi and Oath are 105, EV at 102 - all on their last out. 

an off the pace type who will have no trouble rating back with the 2 big guns ... i think he is gonna be a big factor Saturday, just hope he doesn't become the "wiseguy" pick, which would sap all the juice outta his vertical possibilities. 

got a LIVE one here, imo. 

 
otb_lifer said:
- Creative Minister

... he was supplemented in here for the full bug 150k, after bagging an aoc on Oaks Day - that was his 3rd career start, and he's a neck away from being undefeated thus far. 

unraced as a 2 yr old, his first ever outing was a shade over 2 months ago, so this cat is jumping into the fire here.

$180,000 yearling, a McPeek special - they obviously feel he's fit and in great form to plunk down damn near his purchase price to slot him in. 

Bris speed figs have progressed from 84 to 88 to 108 ... highest Bris fig for both Epi and Oath are 105, EV at 102 - all on their last out. 

an off the pace type who will have no trouble rating back with the 2 big guns ... i think he is gonna be a big factor Saturday, just hope he doesn't become the "wiseguy" pick, which would sap all the juice outta his vertical possibilities. 

got a LIVE one here, imo. 
Click to expand...
Agreed

I was actually disappointed to see 10-1. I thought he’d be higher 

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Agreed

I was actually disappointed to see 10-1. I thought he’d be higher 
Click to expand...


i just hope the majority of verticals focus on the big 4 (Epi, Oath, EV, Simp).

as i said yesterday, i will use this cat and Skippy on my spreads - the latter being a box of chocolates (he looks brilliant, then looks like a nickel claimer at Chucktown), but he was the only other horse besides Mo D to make up ground on EV in the Wood (his last out), posting his career best figs. 

 
otb_lifer said:
i just hope the majority of verticals focus on the big 4 (Epi, Oath, EV, Simp).

as i said yesterday, i will use this cat and Skippy on my spreads - the latter being a box of chocolates (he looks brilliant, then looks like a nickel claimer at Chucktown), but he was the only other horse besides Mo D to make up ground on EV in the Wood (his last out), posting his career best figs. 
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I think most will focus on the big 4. Hard for me to see Epicenter out of the top 2 spots. Asmussen said he came out of the Derby great and just out in a maintenance work.  I originally thought it was going to be Epicenter and with Secret Oath (getting 5 pounds helps and fillies have done well in the Preakness), or Epicenter and Early Voting hooking up. I think one of Secret Oath or Early Voting fires but not both. My play was going to be 2 big tri’s with the combos above with Simplification in 3rd. But the 150K supplement has me intrigued. They have to think the horse has a chance. Must be doing well. 

 
looking into a very plausible angle here, one which i think definitely plays out ...

Yaffert (Bakteen?) is not gonna be sending Army any harder than need be, especially after the unprecedented pace we just saw in the Derby. 

further - Irad jumped on Army, and his bro (Jose) is on EV ... these are the likely pacesetters. 

los hermanos Ortiz have long been accused of gamesmanship when in the same field - enough smoke there, i assure you ... most of it goes on right here at my home tracks. 

so Bakteen isn't gonna press the pace at an outlandish level, and Irad will likely allow his bro to draft behind in very reasonble (glacial, as compared to the KD) splits, if not cede the engine to EV, but never making the urgent push. 

this is significant because it allows EV to put them to sleep on the lead ... the ONLY way this thing melts is if ol' Fenny or HJ (as i hinted to the other day, at Dougie's behest with blinks/new jock) decide they wanna go suicidal. 

i said prior to the Derby that there was no way i could envision anyone but Mess being on the lead as we hit the top of the stretch ... and he sure was, but, well ...

apply similar to EV for the Preak - huge difference is he won't be fried from the earlier fractions - now, question is, can he hold it?

he has been loose on the lead before, with very little pressure - worked in the Withers, failed in the Wood (Mo D flattered him in the Derby, though). 

 Chad pointed here - he's freshened and ready ... i think the factors i alluded to allow him to get away with softer upfront work than anticipated ... he should have plenty left for the stretch - and he'll be challenged by a wall of five, imo (Epi, Oat, CM, Simp, Skip) ...  who is left standing?

i'm banking on EV being in a photo finish for the win. 

if it's CM/Simp/Skip with him, it makes us some good coin ... i'm spreading this like Blue Bonnet. 

 
otb_lifer said:
Monmouth ****ery

so i was under the impression they were running fixed odds down the shore ... uh, that's gonna be a no, dawg. 

- was hot on this cat, best speed in the field by far, and he won by 7 lengths - 

i plopped on him because at ZERO minutes to post he was at a ridiculous overlay of 5/2 - hedged my ### with place dough just in case ... 

qtr mile in, he's stalking the lead pair, who are setting a brisk pace - then the odds appear ... he's now 4/5.

look, i seriously doubt my 20 spot tilted this  :lol:  so, c'mon man ... wtf happened to fixed odds? 

the second i hit "submit", the wagering closed ... so what should've been roughly $105 payout gets noodled to $64. 

:deadhorse:
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All the :shark: s out there have bots contingent on your last minute bets otb!  Seriously nothing more frustrating than watching those numbers on the totes change one at a time on the 1/4 poll :hot:  - they never change to the good.

-QG

 
OK - just looked at the past performances.  Getting a bit clearer now that I see the PP's  though I'll do one more checks on workout reports - some thoughts:

4 horses can be completely eliminated IMO - Fenwick, Happy Jack, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking.  All are just too slow.  OTB - I have no idea what you see in Skippy other than he ran a so-so 3rd in the Wood (if anything it might make me downgrade anybody from the Wood).  He could 't close the deal against optional 75K claimers multiple times.  Many of his Beyers are in the 60's and 70's.  Doesn't even look like a decent allowance horse to me.

All the rest have a shot.  After looking at this more closely I agree with OTB and think Early Voting and Creative Minister both have big chances here.  Really nice 5 furlong breezes coming into this.  Early Voting's 96 (though it was in that Wood) stacks up well.  Was 3 1/2 clear of 3rd after getting caught by Mo.  Been pointed for this the entire time.  Hard for me seeing EV running out of the exacta here.  Creative Minister has improving form I like.  Stiffest test yet but fresh, rates well, and is a neck away from being undefeated. Should like the extra 1/8th over the 1 1/16 races he's been running.  Owners put up $150K and most owners don't like to burn cash for nothing.  Have to think they have a chance.  Anyway, those 2 figure to fire fresh.

So the whole key is going to be which of the 3 horses coming out of Derby weekend fire vs which ones regress.  Surely some will regress as they are likely to be over the top.

Epicenter is the class of the race and he ran an unbelievable race in the Derby.  If he is even the same as the first Saturday in May he wins.  Has the top 3 Beyers in the field.  Can rate right off of Early Voting.  Most likely outcome and I think he fires.  Asmussen confident.  He should get a much more comfortable trip here than in the Derby.  But could he regress? Yes.  Unlikely, but because of that possibility he won't be on all my tickets.  Just most.

Simplification is trickier.  Gained my respect in Kentucky after a lousy FL Derby.  Showed that he could rate and is versatile.  But I think his Derby race was a bit of a mirage.  Didn't really close in the stretch.  It's just that so many horses went backwards.  This will be his 6th race of the year and to me he is the mostly likely to regress.  I have to throw more horses out and Simplification is likely one of them.  Could be wrong - but I think he's over the top and won't run a step on Saturday.

Secret Oath was super impressive in the Oaks and I got to see her in person.  She is a specimen.  I have no doubt she'll run her heart out but still doubt it will be good enough to win and at best she underneath to be in tri's and supers.  Not much value there.  She's yet to run as fast as Epicenter and Early Voting and now has to go back against the boys.  Already failed against the boys once.  She'll make a move but I just don't think she passes them all in the lane.

So I'll key my bets on Epicenter, Early Voting and Creative Minister.  Something like $100 exactas Epicenter on top to those 2, $50 exactas reversed with those 2 over Epicenter, $25 box EV and Creative Minister and I'll play with tri's with those 3.  Maybe $10 tri box.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
All the :shark: s out there have bots contingent on your last minute bets otb!  Seriously nothing more frustrating than watching those numbers on the totes change one at a time on the 1/4 poll :hot:  - they never change to the good.

-QG
Click to expand...


yeah, how many times the odds click down to some ridiculous number ... start at 4-1, then they're at 6/5 on first call  :lol:

thing is, Monmouth was supposedly running fixed, but after some digging, i found out it was 1) only IN PERSON at the track itself, and 2) only at 2 specific windows. 

they're still working out them kinks, it would appear - so it's biz as usual 'til further notice. 

Judge Smails said:
 OTB - I have no idea what you see in Skippy other than he ran a so-so 3rd in the Wood (if anything it might make me downgrade anybody from the Wood).  He could 't close the deal against optional 75K claimers multiple times.  Many of his Beyers are in the 60's and 70's.  Doesn't even look like a decent allowance horse to me
Click to expand...


otb_lifer said:
as i said yesterday, i will use this cat and Skippy on my spreads - the latter being a box of chocolates (he looks brilliant, then looks like a nickel claimer at Chucktown), but he was the only other horse besides Mo D to make up ground on EV in the Wood (his last out), posting his career best figs. 
Click to expand...


plz see the bolded on Skip. 

much has to go right for him to factor, but i'm buying enough faith in him as a clunk up candidate to supplement my larger spreads.  

on paper this is a scant 3 horse affair (EV, Oat, Epi) - i'll have enough coverage to not get burned by that logical triumvirate, but i'm also gonna have my ### invested if we get some non firing malfeasance from the haughtier horse flesh. 

 
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