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I repectfully disagree 110%
Bush has the potential to be a solid NFL RB. His size/speed combo is outstanding. However, I haven't seen him run as physical as he's going to need to be in the NFL. The Louisville spread offense disguised that Eric Shelton was overrated, and I think it's doing the same to Bush. Now, Bush could learn how to use his size to his advantage - put his shoulder down and run through guys, run low, and so on, but I havent seen it yet. Until then, I see him as a novelty/role player, despite his possible status as a first round pick.
I happened to have made a pre-season trade that turned into the 1.01 Rookie pick... This will be of high interest for me. I see the recovery (collar bone) of A Peterson and where he lands as the only limiting factor of him not landing on my roster come draft time. Lynch would depend on the offense more from what limited play I have seen of his. I am very glad to see Kenny Irons in your listings. I have seen him hurt alot of solid Defenses in the SEC. More maturity could go a long ways with his productivity and work ethic. Side note: I am looking at Ark Soph Darren McFadden as a future dynasty RB to monitor.
I know that he has not gotten a chance on the field, but the Panthers have1- Signed a RB to a long term contract2- Drafted another in the first round3- given more carries to mediocore talents like Goings and HooverIt looks like the Panthers don't think too much of him.
Exactly my thoughts because Bush is a similar back, I will admit, thought Bush is much more athletic.Similarly, the only question in my mind is durability.
If McFadden were to make the jump to the NFL,I would place him either 2nd or 3rd in the 2007 RB draft class at this time..... he's THAT good.
You won't be the only one.
He's on pace to be THE top pick in the draft in 2008 or 2009.
Bush has the potential to be a solid NFL RB. His size/speed combo is outstanding. However, I haven't seen him run as physical as he's going to need to be in the NFL. The Louisville spread offense disguised that Eric Shelton was overrated, and I think it's doing the same to Bush. Now, Bush could learn how to use his size to his advantage - put his shoulder down and run through guys, run low, and so on, but I havent seen it yet. Until then, I see him as a novelty/role player, despite his possible status as a first round pick.
I think people are overrating Bush a little bit. What about Dwayne White?No they dont. However he wasnt nearly as regarded by the majority of NFL scouts as he was by fantasy owners when he went to a team with a need to fill in the second round. Had he gone to another team in the third round (a very strong possiblity if Carolina doesnt make that pick), he wouldnt have been regarded so highly by fantasy players. Bush has more potential than Shelton. Not many large RBs are being used on third downs anymore in the NFL, so I'm not in total disagreement. I'm just not thrilled with the Shelton comparison.
I would have a hard time choosing between McFadden and Peterson. Really.
and Jacobs wasn't very good until he started running lower and more physical. If Bush undergoes a Jacobs-like transformation, then I'll be happy to say I was wrong about him, just like I was wrong about Jacobs in my 05 rookie rankings.
Same here, it comes down to which back ends up in the better system...
and even with all his physical prowess, his career was over about as quickly or more so than earl campbell, because he was so tall it hard for him to get low, he ran upright and took some HELLACIOUS killshots to the body (i remember some... it hurts just thinking about it)...Michael Hart = Tim Biakabatuka?
Yes and yes.He might not be as skilled as a RB as he's only been a true tailback for 4 years. He migth run a little high (ala Jacobs), but these skills can be taught.I'm not saying he's the best RB in this draft, but he's top 4 for sure.
I agree. If Michael Bush doesn't learn to run lower,he will have a very difficult time on the next level.Does anyone know about McFadden's futureplans, ie. leaving early for the NFL ?
i can't always find documentation for my assertions, so if you can't, no problem, but where are you getting that about bush's speed, & if you could provide a link to a scouting or mock draft site that confirms that it would be appreciated... its possible... there have been 250 lb humans that have run a 4.4, but it is pretty rare... maybe he IS a much better prospect than jacobs (jacobs is closer to 260 i think, which is bigger than nearly all LBs and some DEs), but i'm pretty sure jacobs didn't run a 4.4, & may not have run a 4.5...i'll be stunned if bush runs a 4.4 in controlled environment like combine...* in some years, the 4th best RB could be a star... or a bust... the draft slot in itself doesn't mean that much... its all about how his skill set translates to next level...
Most players keep it under wraps until the last minute.We still don't know for sure if Hart is coming out, plus Michael Bush might even use a medical redshirt and come back for one more year.McFadden is not draft-eligible this year as he's only a true Sophmore. PLayers have to be 3 years out of H.S. to be eligible and this he is not.I would say if he is productive enough next year to become a top 5 pick, then he's going to come out (as a Junior)... especially after seeing what happened to Peterson and Bush.
I agree, Bush has an amazing size/speed ratio but his ability to break tackles is horrible, add in the fact that he's tall, runs high and is out right now with a broken leg, I forsee a lot of injury problems to his legs. Tons of people will fall in love with his size and speed but I would do my homework on Bush before putting all my money on him.If I was an NFL GM I would strongly consider taking the running back that sat behind Bush before him, named Kolby Smith. Smith looks to me like he could be something special in the NFL, excellent speed, know's how to get low and finish runs with great power, Kolby compares a lot better to Ronnie Brown then Bush IMO.Marshawn Lynch is an outstanding player and the most complete back in the draft if he declares, he's got everything you for in a back and then some. Fast, Strong, excellent hands and he's also got some of the best agility I've seen since Barry Sanders. He could be the #1 rookie pick if he goes to a better situation then AP.I think Tony Hunt could be a gem if he goes to a good situation, he's not the fastest, not the strongest but he knows how to run with power and get the job done, he's also probably the best blocker in the draft which some coaches will fall in love with.Adrian PetersonMarshawn LynchKenny IronsTony HuntMike HartAntonio PittmanMichael BushKolby SmithSelvin YoungGermaine Raceis my current top 10.
The leg will be be trouble, not so much for the long-term but the .40 time during draft combines/workouts, I would think can be easily improved by a tenth of a second just by Bush losing a few pounds. No way he can't time with the likes of Vernon Davis (didn't he have a 4.4?)
Yes (if not higher), No (because LenDale is/will be a bust IMO), yes.Irons = Maurice Jones Drew (in a pure fantasy potential viewpoint)
As of this moment:BushPetersonLynchMaroneyDeAngeloAddaiMJDNorwoodHartIronsBush
Hart and Irons are below MJD and Norwood mainly because of the uncertainty around their destination. Talent wise, I would rank them MJD, Irons, Norwood, Hart, but Norwood is in the perfect situation. If Hart goes to Houston or Denver, his ranking will skyrocket. Lynch vs. Maroney is really hard. I am going Lynch right now just because we know he's a great receiver and a true feature back, but destination could instantly knock Lynch below Maroney, especially if the Pats don't keep Dillon.
does bush have the kind of body that he can lose 20-30 lbs... not everybody does... not sure he would want to...just for the record... vernon davis was called by some scouts the most physically gifted TE in the history of the draft (i thought i read report he ran sub-4.4 in workouts, though i don't think he did better than 4.4 at combine)... also because of freakish vertical jump which demonstrated absurd explosivenss for such a big dude (listed 6'3" 250, same as bush)... anyway, it was a really big deal that davis ran that fast, so i wouldn't assume bush could do it by shaving off a few pounds...i admit to not seeing bush a lot except in highlights around time of leg break... but based on what i saw of him moving in the open field, he didn't move like matt jones as far as relatively big fast guy (jones is a physical specimen & freak who also engendered heated discussion on this board on whether he was a glorified TE prospect or a legit potential star at WR... i thought latter & still do if injuries don't derail; his career... so i can be down with exceptions to rule that don't neatly fit positional physical prototype scouting conventions & folk wisdom...
)... so partly based on that observation & comparison, i don't think bush runs a 4.4... 4.5 maybe...i think this could be splitting hairs, because many other factors in a constellation of traits will ultimately be bigger determinants of his success or failure (or somewhere in between), ability to be a feature RB or specialty, situational, luxury back...in other words, if he proves to be a 4.5 guy, but has great feet quickness in hole, contact balance, tackle breaking power & functional playing strength, elusiveness (not all RBs have to have elusivenss of sanders, but they can't be statues, either), ability to get low and square his shoulders, etc...that would be way more important, & make him better overall prospect ON BALANCE, than if he ran 4.4 but was severely lacking in one or several of the other traits & attributes...don't know if i ever viewed it this way before, but severe lack of even one of these could be big problemm... if RB is slow, or lacking in quickness, or isn't elusive, or doesn't have good balance, or break tackles well... they could be catastrophic problems and deal breakers & difference between starring & being mediocre...no wonder it is rare to be an NFL feature RB, & even rarer to be a star... just a few guys like that on the planet like LT, LJ & SA at any given point in time, that are so well rounded & seemingly have no gaping holes in their game (alexander may not be best blocker, but i meant in terms of pure running skills)...no wonder scouting is such an inexact science, when it can be hard to delineate all these separate skill sets, and discern where amongst so many skills they have to have, they may sometimes come up short in a key area, but it gets blurred in a mountain of other data & observations...& often times critcal gaps in skill set that are latent in college don't become manifest until tested against greater level of competition & superior athleticism & talent of NFL, adding to the complexity & compounding the problem & dilemna faced by scouts in trying to project from one level to another...
I don't follow the college game enough to know much about Peterson's previous shoulder issues but unless he ends up in a very small subset of folks who need surgical intervention for a collarbone fracture (and it appears that he wasn't and won't), that specific injury shouldn't be an issue at all leading up to the draft.What kind of shoulder problems has he had? ETA: Surgery in 2004 after two separate shoulder dislocations. I didn't find any other notes and as far as I can tell, he's had no further problems with that shoulder. The clavicle fracture is a totally separate injury and isn't related to the surgery to strengthen his shoulder joint.
Curious - even after what you have seen so far this year, you think Reggie Bush is still the top dog in this list? I was a big Reggie Bush fan in college and thought he had the type of skills that would translate well into the NFL (and still do) However, after seeing both guys play in the NFL this year, Maroney sure looks much more explosive than Reggie does and seems to have adapated to the NFL better.
As far as I know this is the first shoulder injury for AP.
Bush is learning the hard way that what worked in college won't work in the pros. He's showing signs of turning the corner (by not always trying to turn the corner). Deuce's continued presence may cap his fantsay value for the next few years, so I would bump Maroney ahead of him if Dillon is gone from NE, but Deuce is not gone from NO. Bush's talent is still off the charts, and for now that is the determining factor. The gap between the two has narrowed since the year began, and will close completely if Maroney is a sole feature back and Bush is not.
Edited my last post to reflect some googling. Peterson had issues with shoulder dislocations in 2004 (at least two) and had surgery to tighten the capsule -- haven't found the details of how extensive the surgery was yet. And I haven't seen any indication that it's hindered him since. Haven't delved much deeper than that yet.
Biabreakable said:
We are definitely on the same page Bia. I agree with skeptical. I'm not saying Bush will be a bust, but I got burned too badly by Shelton to think that size/speed/athleticism = success at RB - and Shelton was set up to succeed in a good power running attack, so it wasn't because he was being misused. Bush is definitely a superior athletic specimen to Shelton, but I don't think a little more speed and agility would have changed how badly Shelton's career has gone thus far.
