2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[HULLOBUDMAN]

My team rocks...165.90 (-8.70 for Holmes)

not sure what I am missing here. what does the -8.7 mean?

 

[meeka]

My team rocks...165.90 (-8.70 for Holmes)

not sure what I am missing here. what does the -8.7 mean?

That means he already has 8.7 at wr or flex so Holmes has to score more than 8.7 to count. If he does score more than 8.7 his total score will be raised by the amount more than 8.7 that Holmes scores.

 

[Marauder]

133.9 with Portis (-13.9) and all of Suisham's points. Hopefully we'll get some field goals tonight.

 

[ctriopelle]

As of the 10:30 update, the FS cut is at 128.9. Things aren't moving much tonight...

 

[scottybo]

118.5 with Holmes (-4.6), Portis (-13.2) and Moss (-4.6) left.

Thought I could get a little more out of these guys. I'm up to 131.6 now. Too close to call.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I think Chris Cooley saved me tonight

137.1

 

[Tecumseh]

143.30

:sweat:

 

[meeka]

Those last few catches in the 4th by Cooley may have saved me too. 142.3

Be kind Turk.

 

[ctriopelle]

Final Fantasy Star estimate: 133.3

 

[scottybo]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

 

[levinakl]

Final Fantasy Star estimate: 133.3

Please be high, please be high.....PLEASE be high...132.6

 

[nashua55]

Finished with 138.75 thanks to FWP's decent showing. Hopefully it is enough.

 

[HellToupee]

Final Fantasy Star estimate: 133.3

Please be high, please be high.....PLEASE be high...132.6

oof

 

[meeka]

Final Fantasy Star estimate: 133.3

After yesterday the FS estimate was a couple of points off DD's number. Was your number adjusted with that info, or will DD's number probably still be a couple of points higher?

 

[joffer]

 

[TheOriginalDoubledown]

This is not looking good. sitting at 134.9 and projected cut off at 133.3. And I was worried about bye weeks last week.

 

[scottybo]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

Actually I may still be OK. Thomas Jones is listed at 19.70 on TFS but I add it up to 22.70.1 Rushing TD = 6 pts6 Receptions = 6 pts69 Rushing Yards = 6.9 pts38 Receiving Yards = 3.8 ptsTotal = 22.70 Will have to add up everything else now.

 

[meeka]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

Actually I may still be OK. Thomas Jones is listed at 19.70 on TFS but I add it up to 22.70.1 Rushing TD = 6 pts6 Receptions = 6 pts69 Rushing Yards = 6.9 pts38 Receiving Yards = 3.8 ptsTotal = 22.70 Will have to add up everything else now.

I think rbs only get a half a point for reception.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

Actually I may still be OK. Thomas Jones is listed at 19.70 on TFS but I add it up to 22.70.1 Rushing TD = 6 pts6 Receptions = 6 pts69 Rushing Yards = 6.9 pts38 Receiving Yards = 3.8 ptsTotal = 22.70 Will have to add up everything else now.

I think rbs only get a half a point for reception.

That is correct

 

[scottybo]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

Actually I may still be OK. Thomas Jones is listed at 19.70 on TFS but I add it up to 22.70.1 Rushing TD = 6 pts6 Receptions = 6 pts69 Rushing Yards = 6.9 pts38 Receiving Yards = 3.8 ptsTotal = 22.70 Will have to add up everything else now.

I think rbs only get a half a point for reception.

That is correct

Yeah, noticed when I went back and double-checked the scoring rules.

 

[meeka]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

Actually I may still be OK. Thomas Jones is listed at 19.70 on TFS but I add it up to 22.70.1 Rushing TD = 6 pts6 Receptions = 6 pts69 Rushing Yards = 6.9 pts38 Receiving Yards = 3.8 ptsTotal = 22.70 Will have to add up everything else now.

I think rbs only get a half a point for reception.

That is correct

Yeah, noticed when I went back and double-checked the scoring rules.

Just trying to save you the hassle of adding up all of your players, and any false hope of what your score might be. We can still hope for a 131 cut line.

 

[scottybo]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

Actually I may still be OK. Thomas Jones is listed at 19.70 on TFS but I add it up to 22.70.1 Rushing TD = 6 pts6 Receptions = 6 pts69 Rushing Yards = 6.9 pts38 Receiving Yards = 3.8 ptsTotal = 22.70 Will have to add up everything else now.

I think rbs only get a half a point for reception.

That is correct

Yeah, noticed when I went back and double-checked the scoring rules.

Just trying to save you the hassle of adding up all of your players, and any false hope of what your score might be. We can still hope for a 131 cut line.

I was going to look at the QB scoring when I noticed the RB receptions being .5. Then it hit me.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

And with Bama losing this Saturday to LSU, gonna be a rough week for you

 

[BAT1man]

I think I slid by week 9, with 145.90.

With byes and injuries, I'll be counting on the following studs to get me thru week 10...

QB - K. Warner, M. Ryan

RB - ADP, T. Jones, S. Slaton, R. Rice, R. Williams, J. Hester

WR - R. Moss, R. Brown, S. Breaston

TE - J. Shockey, K. Boss

K - O. Mare

Def - Chargers, Falcons

 

[scottybo]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

And with Bama losing this Saturday to LSU, gonna be a rough week for you

It could happen, but the odds are against it.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Week 10 here I come...

Used 9 times - Clinton Portis

Used 8 times - Tony Gonzalez

Used 7 times - Steve Breaston

Used 6 times - Steve Slaton, Jerricho Cotchery, Steve Smith

Used 5 times - Maurice Jones-Drew, Derrick Mason, Jason Hanson, Dolphins D

Used 4 times - Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Brandon Marshall, Kris Brown, Jets D

Used 3 times - Leon Washington

Used 2 times - Ray Rice

Used 1 time - Jake Delhomme, Reggie Williams, Dustin Keller

Not yet used - Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams

Have been very fortunate as far as injuries (knock on wood). Portis is last remaining player to have his bye, so let's hope my RB depth can cover my top performer. My 2nd best RB (Slaton) has a very tough game vs BAL, but I have to love MJD's matchup @ DET. Rice finally exploded this week, and should score well @ HOU if given the load again. Will also be looking for Leon to break a big play or two vs STL. My 2 benchwarmers (Morris and Williams) play each other @ MIA, and I doubt either will be of use in week 10.

My flex has come from my RB corps 7 times, and from my WR's 2 times. I think week 10 would be a good week for my flex to come from WR's, as I fear a low scoring week if I have to use 3 RB's.

 

[bizkliz]

safe with my 2nd best week @ 174.70.

sure could use witten back though.

-biz-

 

[Alias]

7 Calvin Johnson

7 Matt Prater

6 Kurt Warner

6 Michael Turner

6 Santonio Holmes

5 Steve Slaton

5 Andre Johnson

5 Muhsin Muhammad

5 Zach Miller

5 Minnesota Defense

4 Jonathan Stewart

4 Kevin Walter

4 Anthony Fasano

3 Steve Breaston

3 Ray Rice

3 N.Y. Jets Defense

2 DeAngelo Williams

2 Matt Stover

2 Selvin Young

0 Maurice Morris

 

[Doug Drinen]

135.10

 

[David Yudkin]

Used 9 times - Clinton Portis

Used 8 times - Tony Gonzalez

Used 7 times - Donald Driver

Used 6 times - Steve Slaton, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Kevin Walter, Matt Prater

Used 5 times - Thomas Jones

Used 4 times - Kurt Warner

Used 3 times - Philip Rivers , Zach Miller, Phil Dawson, Houston Defense, New England Defense, St. Louis Defense

Used 2 times - Matt Schaub, Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams

Used 1 time - Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Derek Hagan

Not yet used - None

 

[saintfool]

135.10

missed the cut here by less than 1 point (134.15). drat. it was a pretty good run nonetheless.

 

[Doug Drinen]

OK, so I have a lot more to say about the comments from BuckeyeArt and others. But what I'm about to show you might change the nature of the conversation somewhat, so I'll hold off.

I spent some time working on a simulation engine that will "play" the week's games 1000 times and then figure out how many of those 1000 weeks result in advancement for each contest team.

Note that, unlike the other set of power rankings, these are for this week only, and completely ignore future weeks.

Here it is.

I'll probably keep tweaking it in the coming weeks, so it should probably be considered beta, but I think it's solid enough to get your thoughts on it.

I will be very curious to see where the 800 eliminated teams come from this week.731 - 90-99.9% survival probability

771 - 80-89.9% survival probability

560 - 70-79.9% survival probability

382 - 60-69.9% survival probability

260 - 50-59.9% survival probability

155 - 40-49.9% survival probability

120 - 30-39.9% survival probability

76 - 20-29.9% survival probability

30 - 10-19.9% survival probability

21 - 0.4-9.9% survival probability

Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct--------------------------- 0-- 9	21	 0	 0.010--19	30	 5	16.720--29	76	16	21.130--39   120	36	30.040--49   155	74	47.750--59   260   157	60.460--69   382   257	67.370--79   560   429	76.680--89   771   650	84.390--99   731   681	93.2

 

[jon_mx]

my team keeps squeaking by.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

No way I should be in it. 111834.

 

[gman74]

Projected cutoff is 133.3 ... I'm out for sure with 131.6

And with Bama losing this Saturday to LSU, gonna be a rough week for you

It could happen, but the odds are against it.

Should be a good game to watch. It will be fun watching 2 of the highest paid teams in the SEC square off .

 

[Tecumseh]

135.10

 

[Tackling Dummies]

No way I should be in it. 111834.

The good news is that there's no style points. I'm waiting for the clock to strike 12 on my team as well, but they keep hanging around. 104390.

 

[Sheriff66]

161 and moving on, but this bye week is going to be scary with Dallas off. I didn't use any of them last week and get Colston back, so that is something to hang my hat on...

 

[Random]

Moving on with 139.50, without using 5 of my 6 highest paid players (Romo, LT, Marshall, S Smith, S Moss)

Used 9 times - none

Used 8 times - none

Used 7 times - Tomlinson

Used 6 times - S Moss, S Breaston, A Fasano

Used 5 times - Romo, Westbrook, Slaton, S Smith, Walter, Buffalo

Used 4 times - Warner, Marshall, Bryant, Gould, Prater, Patriots

Used 3 times - ARE, Keller

Used 2 times - Gaines

Used 1 times - RiWi, Hagan, Vinatari

 

[Dirty Weasel]

OK, so I have a lot more to say about the comments from BuckeyeArt and others. But what I'm about to show you might change the nature of the conversation somewhat, so I'll hold off.

I spent some time working on a simulation engine that will "play" the week's games 1000 times and then figure out how many of those 1000 weeks result in advancement for each contest team.

Note that, unlike the other set of power rankings, these are for this week only, and completely ignore future weeks.

Here it is.

I'll probably keep tweaking it in the coming weeks, so it should probably be considered beta, but I think it's solid enough to get your thoughts on it.

I will be very curious to see where the 800 eliminated teams come from this week.731 - 90-99.9% survival probability

771 - 80-89.9% survival probability

560 - 70-79.9% survival probability

382 - 60-69.9% survival probability

260 - 50-59.9% survival probability

155 - 40-49.9% survival probability

120 - 30-39.9% survival probability

76 - 20-29.9% survival probability

30 - 10-19.9% survival probability

21 - 0.4-9.9% survival probability

Surv% N Surv Pct--------------------------- 0-- 9 21 0 0.010--19 30 5 16.720--29 76 16 21.130--39 120 36 30.040--49 155 74 47.750--59 260 157 60.460--69 382 257 67.370--79 560 429 76.680--89 771 650 84.390--99 731 681 93.2

I love the stats, Doug. Just another part of this contest to dig into when I am bored at work.Team "Rocky" - Given only a 13.3% survival probability, he had to use Torain's .1pt and Colston's bye week. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/101052.php

Team "Apollo" - Basically a shoe-in with a 97.2% survival probability, this team's WR's and TE's killed him.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/108476.php

 

[AB in DC]

Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct--------------------------- 0-- 9	21	 0	 0.010--19	30	 5	16.720--29	76	16	21.130--39   120	36	30.040--49   155	74	47.750--59   260   157	60.460--69   382   257	67.370--79   560   429	76.680--89   771   650	84.390--99   731   681	93.2

Damn, you're good.

 

[BR33ZE]

Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct--------------------------- 0-- 9	21	 0	 0.010--19	30	 5	16.720--29	76	16	21.130--39   120	36	30.040--49   155	74	47.750--59   260   157	60.460--69   382   257	67.370--79   560   429	76.680--89   771   650	84.390--99   731   681	93.2

Damn, you're good.

It's interesting to look at some of the teams with little to no chance to make it according to the schedule above that slid by.There's a guy in there with no RB 2 and no Flex in week 9, but still slid by.There are several with zero's from QB's that made it.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct--------------------------- 0-- 9	21	 0	 0.010--19	30	 5	16.720--29	76	16	21.130--39   120	36	30.040--49   155	74	47.750--59   260   157	60.460--69   382   257	67.370--79   560   429	76.680--89   771   650	84.390--99   731   681	93.2

Damn, you're good.

Doesn't get much prettier than that for a projection tool. :doublethumbsup:

 

[BR33ZE]

Is there a way to tell how many teams with B. Marshall went out over the weekend with his poor performance.

After scanning through the teams with high percentages to get by the weak, but happened not to make it, it looks like the few I scanned have B. Marshall.

 

[BR33ZE]

This is a pretty sick team to go down.

Team

No back up TE to help out this week killed him.

But out is a team with these guys:

Cutler/Warner/Delhomme

Slaton/C. Johnson/Barber

B. Marshall/S. Moss/ Cotchery/Lee Evans

Witten

etc.

"ouch"

 

[BR33ZE]

100114

This is pretty sick as well:

Romo/Cutler/Warner

Slaton/Barber/Portis

Calvin Johnson/B. Marshall/Desean Jackson/S. Moss

That's a good lineup. Probably would have died next week anyway with bye weeks.

But the TE killed him as well.

 

[Jayrod]

Surv%	  N   Surv	Pct--------------------------- 0-- 9	21	 0	 0.010--19	30	 5	16.720--29	76	16	21.130--39   120	36	30.040--49   155	74	47.750--59   260   157	60.460--69   382   257	67.370--79   560   429	76.680--89   771   650	84.390--99   731   681	93.2

Damn, you're good.

Only one group fell outside of the range and that was only by 2 teams.Great stat work.I feel really bad for the 50 teams in that 90% range that fell. But it's also awesome to see 5 teams in the 10% range make it.I was in the 80% group and made it through with my second lowest score of the year of 153.0. This is so fascinating (as long as my team is still alive, of course). I'm pretty happy so far since this is my first time to try the contest.Drinen, are you doing this again this week?

 

[apalmer]

Is there a way to tell how many teams with B. Marshall went out over the weekend with his poor performance.

After scanning through the teams with high percentages to get by the weak, but happened not to make it, it looks like the few I scanned have B. Marshall.

381 of 1395 teams with Marshall were eliminated (about 27%)http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...mp;query_type=1

FWIW, 165 of 462 teams with Marshall and Steve Smith were eliminated (about 36%)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...mp;query_type=1

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Used 9 times - none

Used 8 times - Cooley

Used 7 times - Brees, Calvin Johnson, Ginn

Used 6 times - Chris Johnson, K Walter, Slaton, Saints, J Hanson

Used 5 times - MJ Drew, B Marshall

Used 4 times -

Used 3 times - Fasano, Janikowski, Colts, Ray Rice

Used 2 times - McFadden, Gaffney, Ricky Williams, M Ryan

Used 1 times - Pierre Thomas

Used 0 times - Utect, Garrard

 

[levinakl]

missed out by 1.5.... oh well, always next year!