2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[Tyrion]

This has been a very interesting team for me this year. My QB and WRs are obviously my strength but my crazy 8 group of RBs have done pretty well for me.

Going with 1 kicker and defense was a risk but so far so good.

Drew Brees

Kyle Orton

Kurt Warner

Ahmad Bradshaw RB

Derrick Ward RB

Chris Johnson RB

Felix Jones RB DAL

Steve Slaton RB HOU

Jonathan Stewart RB

Ricky Williams RB

Ray Rice RB

Jerricho Cotchery WR

DeSean Jackson WR

Calvin Johnson WR

Brandon Marshall WR

Steve Smith WR CAR

Kevin Walter WR

Roddy White WR

Dustin Keller TE

Zach Miller TE

Phil Dawson K

Tennessee Defense

 

[FLPANTHER]

Slipped by a cpl weeks maybe a shot

QB - Jay Cutler - 14

QB - Matt Schaub - 13

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

RB - Marion Barber - 40

RB - Thomas Jones - 21

RB - Chris Johnson - 14

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Ray Rice - 4

WR - Santonio Holmes - 24

WR - Brandon Marshall - 23

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23

WR - Patrick Crayton - 13

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 5

WR - DeSean Jackson - 4

TE - Heath Miller - 13

TE - L.J. Smith - 12

TE - Dustin Keller - 2

PK - Kris Brown - 2

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

TD - Indianapolis Colts - 4

TD - Houston Texans - 2

TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

I need a defense, really thought Houston had a chance

And i can hope for the Warner fail now I think

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Where are you guys finding the % owned numbers?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php

 

[kroyrunner89]

i made it! if i can slip by the next couple weeks i like my chances... i'm becoming a unique team

 

[EBF]

Where are you guys finding the % owned numbers?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2008/stats.php

Thanks.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

 

[ctriopelle]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

Thanks Doug! You are more than welcome to be more accurate with my 70% survival this week than my 47% survival last week Based on last week's sim, the median cut score predicted was about 150, which was pretty darn close to the 153 that really happened. Looks like this week the sim gives a 161.5 median, so we should have yet another week of good scores required to move on.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The extreme teams...

1QB - 3 teams left (2 teams with Warner, 1 team with Brees)

2RB - 1 team left (this dude scored 195 pts with no RB's this week - Portis and Graham)

3WR - 3 teams left (one of them has been taking a goose egg with Burleson since week 2)

1TE - 34 teams left (none of them own Jason Witten or Antonio Gates)

1K - 34 teams left (2 teams own Nugent)

1D - 50 teams left (2 teams only spent a buck, and one of those teams is FBG's own Andy Hicks)

6QB - 1 team left (extreme to the max, as he counts both as one of the 34 teams with only 1TE (Keller) and 1K (Prater)

9RB - 3 teams left (each spent over $100; one of them had his 9RB's score a combined total of 24pts)

11WR - 1 team left (only WR he hasn't used yet is Galloway, who is his 3rd most expensive; also a 1K and 1D team)

4TE - 24 teams left (we lost our last remaining 5TE team this week)

8K - 1 team left (no other team has 7K's, and only 5 teams with 6K's, but he's no fourteenkickerguy)

7D - 1 team left (his IQ must be in the seventies to take 7D's)

Yippee, I made the extremers list with 4 TEs (Olson, Fasano, Keller, Royal)!Scored 208 last week and made Top 250 in simulation rankings; Gonna be fun tracking versus the other 24 4TE teams....

 

[nashua55]

Ouch! 65.6% chance of surviving this week. I was hoping my percentage would have been better. I am sure it is because I am one of the few teams that did spend the $5 on Kurt "MVP" Warner. To think that I wasted $5 on Darrell Jackson instead. Oh well, atleast my chances are a little better than a coin flip. I think thurs will tell alot if my team survives since I have T. Jones and Jerricho Cotchery.

 

[Sheriff66]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

Can someone run my team then post the results ? TIA104782

 

[sinatravolta]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

Thanks - these are awesome. I'm at # 314 but still that only gives me a 75.6% chance compared to 62.5% overall which shows that all the teams left at this point are very good. I see the team with the lowest probability is lacking a QB (Schaub, Kitna) - but otherwise that team is plenty strong so even they still have some hope.

 

[sinatravolta]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

Can someone run my team then post the results ? TIA104782

Here you are:-------- Percentiles --------

Team Surv% AvScore MAX 80 60 40 20 MIN

--------------------+--------+-------+------------------------------

-------- CUT LINES ------------------> 220 173 165 158 151 129

--------------------+--------+-------+------------------------------

1002. Team 104782 | 58.1 | 170 | 356 194 174 159 145 108

So - 58.1% survival chance.

 

[Jayrod]

I think my team is incredibly well balanced. That bodes well for advancement, but not for winning it all. (It's also not very unique)

Used 8 times - Fitzgerald

Used 7 times - CJ3, Kevin Walter

Used 6 times - MB3, TJones, Steve Smith, Nate Washington, John Kasay

Used 5 times - Slaton, DeJax

Used 4 times - Brees, Warner, Shockey, Keller, Rackers

Used 3 times - Utecht, Jags D, Seahawks D, Dolphins D

Used 2 times - Schaub

Used 1 times - Ray Rice, Nate Burleson

Took a zero 2 times.

But that's all 22 players being used at least once.

And also, my scoring has to be among the most balanced. My weekly scores are all between 151.6 & 187.25. That's a range of 35.65 points...a very low deviation rate.

I've never been within 20 points of being eliminated, but I've never broke 190. When one position is up, another is down. The only consistant spot on my whole team is QB where I've scored between 25.45 and 36.05 all year. Every other position has had some wild swings, but always offset by another position. It's been kind of wierd. I keep thinking I'm going to make it to the final group, but finish at the lower end of things. Still, this contest has absolutely fascinated me all year and I'm loving it. Even if I get cut, its still been a great run so far.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

Remember folks, Doug's survival percentages are based solely on the projections by David for this week. Take a peek at them and you can see why you are ranked so high or so low.

 

[tommyGunZ]

What's the "luck/skill" ratio in a contest like this? 97-3?

In years past, I spent several hours researching and finding values, ensuring that bye weeks were covered, etc. I was eliminated extremely early.

This year I put in ~ 1 hour of total prep, and didn't even look at bye weeks, and I'm still alive.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Week 11 simulation results.

No guarantees, but I think I can re-run these on Friday to incorporate what happened in the Thursday game.

Rest-of-contest simulation results to come tonight....

Remember folks, Doug's survival percentages are based solely on the projections by David for this week. Take a peek at them and you can see why you are ranked so high or so low.

Doug gives me a coin flip this week. I'll take it.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Rest-of-contest sim.

Can I count on you guys to yell at the people who don't read the "read this" link? TIA.

The machine continues to be impressed by teams that have all the usual suspects (Warner, Slaton, Marshall, et al) but have one or two potential studs with a very low ownership percentage. With last week's simulator darling eliminated, the sim has fingered this team as the new favorite. I think it's impressed by the Kevin Smith / DeAngelo Williams / Colston trio.

Dodds has low projections for Reggie Bush this week, and the forward projections sort of phase him in gradually over the course of the next few weeks. For that reason, the few remaining Bush owners, like this guy for instance, have relatively low estimated survival probabilities for this week, but a good chance of doing well if they can hang on.

 

[DaddyFatSacks]

Dropped from 18 to 31 in the contest sim.

 

[Marvin88]

19th overall this week without using Brees, Barber, Steve Smith, or Willie Parker.

 

[Marvin88]

19th overall this week without using Brees, Barber, Steve Smith, or Willie Parker.

WOW! Simulator has me finishing 87th, too.

 

[kevzilla]

Interesting. The next-week sim has me at a true coin-flip, but the "rest of the way" sim has me at 51.8% for next week.

Anybody got a two-headed coin?

 

[ctriopelle]

Dodds has low projections for Reggie Bush this week, and the forward projections sort of phase him in gradually over the course of the next few weeks. For that reason, the few remaining Bush owners, like this guy for instance, have relatively low estimated survival probabilities for this week, but a good chance of doing well if they can hang on.

hey....im ....THIS GUY... We'll see if I can get it together this week through Bush/Portis issues...

 

[Das Boot]

Dodds has low projections for Reggie Bush this week, and the forward projections sort of phase him in gradually over the course of the next few weeks. For that reason, the few remaining Bush owners, like this guy for instance, have relatively low estimated survival probabilities for this week, but a good chance of doing well if they can hang on.

hey....im ....THIS GUY... We'll see if I can get it together this week through Bush/Portis issues...

Well you know how last week's Drinen Contest Jinx went...

 

[ctriopelle]

Good thing for me is, last week's jinx hit his overall favorite. I'm in third currently, but my % to finish top 10 relative to my times in the finals is very high (still 2nd). If Bush plays this week and Portis doesn't, I feel pretty good about my chances.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Any chance to get the Fantasystar site to provide stats for the Thursday games?

 

[nashua55]

Well T. Jones and J Cotchery didnt have monster games but they were solid. Their performance tonight gives me a chance going into the weekend. Bad games by one or both of these guys would have put me at a serious disadvantage. Good luck to the people still in this thing.

 

[Das Boot]

Well T. Jones and J Cotchery didnt have monster games but they were solid. Their performance tonight gives me a chance going into the weekend. Bad games by one or both of these guys would have put me at a serious disadvantage. Good luck to the people still in this thing.

I have those 2 as well + Keller. I agree, nice solid start to week 11 in the contest.And now maybe some more pts in OT.

 

[lapdawg]

Well T. Jones and J Cotchery didnt have monster games but they were solid. Their performance tonight gives me a chance going into the weekend. Bad games by one or both of these guys would have put me at a serious disadvantage. Good luck to the people still in this thing.

I have those 2 as well + Keller. I agree, nice solid start to week 11 in the contest.And now maybe some more pts in OT.

I have those three + Gaffney! Nice start indeed.

 

[nashua55]

Well T. Jones and J Cotchery didnt have monster games but they were solid. Their performance tonight gives me a chance going into the weekend. Bad games by one or both of these guys would have put me at a serious disadvantage. Good luck to the people still in this thing.

I have those 2 as well + Keller. I agree, nice solid start to week 11 in the contest.And now maybe some more pts in OT.

I will take any garbage points I can get. 0.1 might be the difference from moving on or not. At this stage of the contest getting eliminated can come down to one rushing/rec yd or even a missed extra point.

 

[Das Boot]

Well T. Jones and J Cotchery didnt have monster games but they were solid. Their performance tonight gives me a chance going into the weekend. Bad games by one or both of these guys would have put me at a serious disadvantage. Good luck to the people still in this thing.

I have those 2 as well + Keller. I agree, nice solid start to week 11 in the contest.And now maybe some more pts in OT.

I have those three + Gaffney! Nice start indeed.

Congrats, very nice night for Gaffney as well.Looks like OT didn't hurt Keller's stats any.

 

[bengalboy]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

 

[CrossEyed]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

Maybe, but every team that doesn't have them is behind you right now.I have Cotchery and Keller and I'm pretty happy about tonight's game.

 

[Das Boot]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

107 teams have those 3 players.

 

[Scarpaggio]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

Well then hopefully we will be with the winning half.

 

[bengalboy]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

107 teams have those 3 players.

I was employing pessimistic sarcasm. BTW - how do you find that out?

 

[nashua55]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

Only 217 teams have both Cotchery and T. Jones. Not sure what you point is, but atleast try and back it up with facts instead of a senseless . Evidently you dont have any of those guys.

 

[OU#1]

Off to a good start with Cotch, Watson, and Keller having good games!

Here's some early scores from players (manually added them up so cut me some slack):

Cotch 22.2

Keller 20.7

T Jones 18.9

Washington 10.5

Coles 11.3

Feeley 10

Jets D 11

Faulk 10.7

S Morris 1.4

Welker 17.8

Watson 26.8

Gaffney 21.6

Moss 11.6

Gostkowski 16.0

NE D 5

Cassel would have had 44.2 if he was in the contest!

BengalBoy: I put a link in my sig to the 35K Query Tool

 

[bengalboy]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

Only 217 teams have both Cotchery and T. Jones. Not sure what you point is, but atleast try and back it up with facts instead of a senseless . Evidently you dont have any of those guys.

?Here's my team:QB - Drew Brees - 23QB - Matt Schaub - 13QB - Kurt Warner - 5RB - Frank Gore - 49RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Brandon Marshall - 23WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23WR - Patrick Crayton - 13WR - Vincent Jackson - 11WR - DeSean Jackson - 4WR - Antonio Bryant - 2WR - Devery Henderson - 2TE - Anthony Fasano - 3TE - Robert Royal - 2TE - Dustin Keller - 2PK - Jason Hanson - 1PK - Matt Prater - 1TD - Chicago Bears - 5TD - Dallas Cowboys - 5

 

[nashua55]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

107 teams have those 3 players.

I was employing pessimistic sarcasm. BTW - how do you find that out?

I didnt get the sarcasm. sorry.

 

[Das Boot]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

107 teams have those 3 players.

I was employing pessimistic sarcasm. BTW - how do you find that out?

Doug Drinen's famous handy dandy Swiss precision FBG contest querier:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php

 

[nashua55]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

Only 217 teams have both Cotchery and T. Jones. Not sure what you point is, but atleast try and back it up with facts instead of a senseless . Evidently you dont have any of those guys.

?Here's my team:QB - Drew Brees - 23QB - Matt Schaub - 13QB - Kurt Warner - 5RB - Frank Gore - 49RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Brandon Marshall - 23WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23WR - Patrick Crayton - 13WR - Vincent Jackson - 11WR - DeSean Jackson - 4WR - Antonio Bryant - 2WR - Devery Henderson - 2TE - Anthony Fasano - 3TE - Robert Royal - 2TE - Dustin Keller - 2PK - Jason Hanson - 1PK - Matt Prater - 1TD - Chicago Bears - 5TD - Dallas Cowboys - 5

Why be pessimestic then? With Portis possibly out, whether half the field had T. Jones or not , you lucked out in having a good game by Jones. The Portis injury could become an advantage for you if you make it and he gets healthy for the stretch run.

 

[Das Boot]

I have Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, and Jerricho Cotchery tonight, and they all played pretty well. Too bad half the teams still alive have the same three players.

Only 217 teams have both Cotchery and T. Jones. Not sure what you point is, but atleast try and back it up with facts instead of a senseless . Evidently you dont have any of those guys.

?Here's my team:QB - Drew Brees - 23QB - Matt Schaub - 13QB - Kurt Warner - 5RB - Frank Gore - 49RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Steve Slaton - 1WR - Brandon Marshall - 23WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23WR - Patrick Crayton - 13WR - Vincent Jackson - 11WR - DeSean Jackson - 4WR - Antonio Bryant - 2WR - Devery Henderson - 2TE - Anthony Fasano - 3TE - Robert Royal - 2TE - Dustin Keller - 2PK - Jason Hanson - 1PK - Matt Prater - 1TD - Chicago Bears - 5TD - Dallas Cowboys - 5

Pretty solid team btw.

 

[bengalboy]

Good point. Turning this sarcastic frown upside down!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Scores tonight...

RB's

Thomas Jones - 18.9

Kevin Faulk - 10.7

Leon Washington - 10.5

Sammy Morris - 1.4

WR's

Jabar Gaffney - 21.6

Jerricho Cotchery - 19.7

Wes Welker - 17.8

Randy Moss - 11.6

Laveranues Coles - 8.8

Brad Smith - 1.7

TE's

Ben Watson - 26.8

Dustin Keller - 20.7

K's

Stephen Gostkowski - 16

Jay Feely - 11

D's

Jets - 11

Patriots - 5

Players that counted for me are Leon Washington, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and the Jets defense (61.9 points).

 

[nashua55]

Good point. Turning this sarcastic frown upside down!

Since the TE position seemed to be your major uncertainty, Keller put your team in a good position. Whether Portis plays or not, I like your odds of moving on this week. Like someone else said. You have a solid team. Good luck.

 

[wraith5]

where do I find the link to see how many owners own a player or combination of players? I know it's buried in here somewhere (probably repeatedly).

TIA.

 

[Das Boot]

where do I find the link to see how many owners own a player or combination of players? I know it's buried in here somewhere (probably repeatedly).

TIA.

Doug Drinen's famous handy dandy Swiss precision FBG contest querier:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/c...uerier_form.php

 

[BassNBrew]

I hate this contest. Get eliminated by a razor thin margin and then watch you players (Gaffney, jones, Cotchery, Keller) have great nites.

Good luck to those hanging on.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Wow. I only had Keller, Jones, and Gaffney in this contest - and they did very well. That's more than I would have asked for in the most ideal conditions.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Simulation results updated to include results of NYJ/NWE game.

This owner of Gaffney, Jones, Keller, and Cotch moves up from 78% to 99%.