cstu
Footballguy
Even without Asomugha it's worth it. I'm going to assume Vegas' pick ends up high now, but it's still a good trade.
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2012 In Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter r0llin_game
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
I am not involved in this trade. 14 team league, start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WR/TEs, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 DST. Non PPR.
Team A gave up:
Brady, Tom NEP QB
Salas, Greg NEP WR
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Team B gave up:
Locker, Jake TEN QB
Green, Alex GBP RB
Rainey, Chris PIT RB
Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick
Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick
Team B finished 9-4 last season and was 4th in total points, so those picks will presumably be late round picks.
Seems like a pretty lousy trade for Team A IMO.
Team A gave up:
Brady, Tom NEP QB
Salas, Greg NEP WR
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Team B gave up:
Locker, Jake TEN QB
Green, Alex GBP RB
Rainey, Chris PIT RB
Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick
Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick
Team B finished 9-4 last season and was 4th in total points, so those picks will presumably be late round picks.
Seems like a pretty lousy trade for Team A IMO.
It does, even if team A is rebuilding they should be able to get more for Brady and Wayne then this
cstu
Footballguy
foxco
Footballguy
What a sweet deal for Cruz.
BoomGoesTheDynamite
Footballguy
Thats actually part of the reason why I made the deal as well. My team was really deep so I had been sending out 2 for 1 and 3 for 1 offers in order to clear some room to pick up a couple free agents. I was also negotiating an Aaron Rodgers for Calvin Johnson deal but the other owner wanted too much on top of Calvin for it to work.'Just Win Baby said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
RG3 will be a 1st round start up pick next season. You have to give up a lot for an asset so valuable. I like the deal and would have made it myself. It hurts giving up so much, but a year from now, you would have paid a lot more.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A top 5 dynasty WR...for that? I just offered Britt and Ingram for Cruz (PPR) - waiting to hear back.
Not bad, but as a fellow Gresham owner I am wondering if he is going to be the Owen Daniels of this era. He has the talent and teases you with good games here and there, but he isn't ever consistent enough for you to feel comfortable with him as your number 1 tight end.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
10-teamer PPR
Luck
D.Wilson
Blount
For
Fitzgerald
Tebow
'13 3rd
Luck
D.Wilson
Blount
For
Fitzgerald
Tebow
'13 3rd
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'm building, so I can wait and see. I like the kid enough.
EBF
Footballguy
14 team ppr dynasty with .75/1/1.25 for RB/WR/TE and 6 points for all TDs (including passing).
Gave: Brock Osweiler, 2013 1st round pick (probably late-ish)
Got: Jay Cutler
League has developmental players, so a lot of the top talent (Lattimore, Dyer, Woods, Allen, Hunter, Barkley) is already rostered.
Gave: Brock Osweiler, 2013 1st round pick (probably late-ish)
Got: Jay Cutler
League has developmental players, so a lot of the top talent (Lattimore, Dyer, Woods, Allen, Hunter, Barkley) is already rostered.
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Donsmith753
Footballguy
I want Cutler here.
flc735
Footballguy
16 team ppr. dynasty
start 2rb, 3wr
i gave m bush
i got garcon
this team only had mccoy, forte and trash at rb
-----
i gave alfred
i got antonio brown
this team only had cj2k, sjax/d richardson and trash at rb. i also had the option of alfred, royster, gibson for torrey smith, 2nd, 3rd
i almost got rivers for alfred from a rb needy team but that didnt work out.
----
12 team dynasty ppr flex league.
last week
i gave murray
i got trent
start 2rb, 3wr
i gave m bush
i got garcon
this team only had mccoy, forte and trash at rb
-----
i gave alfred
i got antonio brown
this team only had cj2k, sjax/d richardson and trash at rb. i also had the option of alfred, royster, gibson for torrey smith, 2nd, 3rd
i almost got rivers for alfred from a rb needy team but that didnt work out.
----
12 team dynasty ppr flex league.
last week
i gave murray
i got trent
Andrew74
Footballguy
Am I missing something here? Why would you give up Luck and Wilson for that??
Andrew74
Footballguy
That's a stal for Trent. I think I like Brown better in the second trade.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Larry Fitzgerald still has a lot of dynasty value...seems like a fair trade to me. Especially in a 10 teamer where everyone should have a top notch QB, so you can probably assume the guy trading Luck has another top guy already on his team.'Andrew74 said:
Donsmith753
Footballguy
1. Leagues overturning trades is crap.2. Either way I'd rather have Cam.'x260bm said:
I assume you read this as Fitzpatrick and not Fitzgerald?'Andrew74 said:
That's not fair to Daniels. He was the #8 TE in '07, the #6 TE in '08, and the #1 TE in '09 at the time of his injury. It's not his fault that Arian Foster happened. Besides, I think he was a guy who tended to outperform his raw talent. A better example of a super-talented tease who will randomly throw down huge games would be Dustin Keller.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
16 team .5 PPR.
Start 1/2/3/1 and a flex, I'm neither team here
Craigentinny Chargers gave up:
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Finley, Jermichael GBP TE
Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Kaunas Buckeyes
Corstorphine Steelers gave up:
Wallace, Mike PIT WR
Myers, Brandon OAK TE
14 pick should be late, probably 12-16.
Start 1/2/3/1 and a flex, I'm neither team here
Craigentinny Chargers gave up:
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Finley, Jermichael GBP TE
Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Kaunas Buckeyes
Corstorphine Steelers gave up:
Wallace, Mike PIT WR
Myers, Brandon OAK TE
14 pick should be late, probably 12-16.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Did you mean to post this in the "what's the worst offer you've ever received in a dynasty league" thread?Terrible. terrible trade.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't beleive in trade vetos, but why would some one give up Newton AND Heyward-Bey for Garcon in the first place?'x260bm said:
cstu
Footballguy
In that trade Cam for Garcon wasn't enough and he had to throw in DHB? That's either collusion or a team that has no business playing FF.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Saw this very interesting trade in my 12 team PPR (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex):
Arian Foster and
Reggie Wayne
FOR
Chris Johnson and
Julio Jones
My take: Initial impression was that the CJ owner panicked and sold too low. I still think that is probably the case. However, after thinking about it further, there's a real chance that CJ's value may fall through the floor if he has another bad season. The scary thing about RBs in dynasty is that their value can fall off of a cliff and it is hard to see that coming sometimes. It's hard to really say what is selling low and what constitutes selling high before the perceived value really evaporates.
Plus, Foster looks to me like the pretty clear #1 dynasty guy at this point. He just produces like crazy and isn't going anywhere. You have to overpay for those type of guys and it is definitely possible that we look back on this trade by the end of the season and see this as a big win for the owner trading CJ/Julio for Foster.
I'm curious what other opinions are. I feel like this is the type of extremely risky, long-term make or break type of trade that makes dynasty so fun.
Arian Foster and
Reggie Wayne
FOR
Chris Johnson and
Julio Jones
My take: Initial impression was that the CJ owner panicked and sold too low. I still think that is probably the case. However, after thinking about it further, there's a real chance that CJ's value may fall through the floor if he has another bad season. The scary thing about RBs in dynasty is that their value can fall off of a cliff and it is hard to see that coming sometimes. It's hard to really say what is selling low and what constitutes selling high before the perceived value really evaporates.
Plus, Foster looks to me like the pretty clear #1 dynasty guy at this point. He just produces like crazy and isn't going anywhere. You have to overpay for those type of guys and it is definitely possible that we look back on this trade by the end of the season and see this as a big win for the owner trading CJ/Julio for Foster.
I'm curious what other opinions are. I feel like this is the type of extremely risky, long-term make or break type of trade that makes dynasty so fun.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
You might want to re-evaluate the people you play against. Those trades range from bad to awful in your favor.'flc735 said:
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
The Julio side, all day. In this particular format, I like Julio more than Foster. Obviously, CJ still has more value than Reggie. Foster's dynasty value is at it's peak and is about to start dipping. I know many think that statement is blasphemby, but Foster is approaching the wrong side of the baseline for his position, when it comes to age. The career Value Over Replacement that Julio will offer, assuming he is a top 5 WR for 10 years, will likely eclipse what Foster will do over the next 3 seasons. Because the starting requirements are shallow (you only start 5 guys from the WR/RB field, only 12 teams ) you need to compare value accross positions more. Meaning, it does start to matter that Julio will last 10 years and Foster much less, and that RBs are injured more often than WRs.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I agree with you on the winning side, but I don't agree at all with the Julio vs. Foster analysis. To me, the more shallow league, especially with regard to the WR position, makes RB much more valuable in comparison to WR and makes it tougher for a WR to put up a high VORP. In these types of leagues, I feel like you can always find two decent WRs who will give you 13 PPG at least. For example, WR24 last year (worst starting WR) was Stevie Johnson at 13.7 PPG. Realistically, you are looking at only 30 or so WRs starting every week (including the WRs in the flex spot). If Julio's a top 5 type of dynasty WR, he probably averages 17 PPG or so(15 PPG last year, 17 PPG so far thru 2 weeks, 17 PPG is pretty close to Fitzgerald's career #). He obviously has good value, but on a per game basis, its probably only 3 to 5 PPG over replacement. With at least 24 RBs starting every week, it is much tougher to find productive RBs and your replacement level is closer to 11 or 12 PPG (RB 24 last year was Cedric Benson at 11.2 PPG). Foster through the last 2 seasons (and 2 games of 2012) has averaged 24 PPG. His value over replacement on a per game basis is 13 PPG. Based just on this season, Foster is worth about 3 times as much as Julio....If Foster puts up 3 more seasons like the past 2, it will take Julio putting up top 5 WR production for the next decade just to catch him....and that is assuming that you really are stuck with a 12 PPG RB in your lineup for 7 straight seasons... I respect your opinion, but I think you got the deep vs. shallow math backwards and Foster is a pretty easy choice over Julio in this shallow format. In a league where you start 3 WR plus a flex or two, the replacement level WR is much less productive because there will be 40 or 50 WRs starting every week, which gives Julio a nice VORP bump. Maybe replacement level WR is only 10 PPG in a really deep league. In that case, Julio is 7 PPG better and Foster is 14 PPG better, making the single season ratio 2-to-1 instead of 3-to-1, and allowing Julio to make up the difference in 6 years instead of 9.'Concept Coop said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
When I use VORP in a dynasty format, I use a calculation that I created (as far as I know), outlined here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=652798&st=0&p=14690616entry14690616Here is what I came with:
Foster: 4 x 250 = 166.66%
Julio: 9.5 x 200 = 208%
This is in a vacuum, of course. If you are win now, Foster's value is increased, and if you are not, Julio's does.
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There's a blind spot in your analysis: roster spots have value, too. It's not 9.5 years of Julio vs 4 years of Foster, it's 9.5 years of Julio vs. 4 years of Foster + 5.5 years of whoever else you devote that roster spot to. I also strongly believe that RBs are substantially more valuable in a 2/2/flex league than they are in a standard 2/3 (or 2/3/flex) league. That one is pretty easy to verify using a simple thought experiment, counting the likely starters at each position, and analyzing the positional scarcity. Finally, there's risk- Foster, having demonstrated production over a multi-year sample, carries less risk than Julio, who has demonstrated production over a half-season sample. I would have Foster ranked clearly and substantially above Julio in that league setting.Of course, I'd also have Johnson pretty well out in front of Wayne, so overall the trade winds up being very interesting for both sides.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for your thoughts on the calculation. The average roster player is not above baseline. So, sure, account for the extra roster spot, but in most dynasty leagues (deep) the difference wouldn't be much. It is not about blanket years - Fosters vs. Julio's. It is about relation to baseline. Right now Foster is neutral. Next year, he will be on the wrong side of it.
Top RBs are more valuable in a 2/2/1 format than in a 2/3 format. You are both right on that part. But, the more shallow the league requirements for a RB, the less VORP they provide. In a PPR league, the number of RBs above average flex value is much smaller. While that gives a high end RB a bump in yearly production or projection, over replacement, it hurts them in other aspects (health, duration of career, etc) when compared to high end WRs.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think he is. People are scared to sell a top end RB, still in his "prime". But, if you can get fair value (which is still a lot, admittedly) this season, or before the start of next, is the time to do it.
Julio over Foster straight up for me. Foster may be a clear cut redraft guy, but not so for dynasty. Any value of CJ over Wayne is gravy.
Julio will be beasting for 10 more years.
Not to get too far afield, but I think people underrate just how valuable a roster spot really is. I was in a league once that allowed people to trade roster spots (I.e. if we had 20 man rosters, and I traded Foster for the last four players on your bench, then suddenly I'd have 23 roster spots to use, while you'd only have 17). That format really illustrated how valuable roster spots really are. Teams didn't really know how to react early on, but by the time everyone had things figured out, you'd see several teams trading studs basically straight up for 3 extra spots. Yeah, the depth of the league will make a big difference, but even in my league (currently 276 QB/RB/WR/TEs rostered), 29% of all skill-position starters last week were plucked off the wire at one point or another, including names like Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Miles Austin, Victor Cruz, Jermichael Finley, Arian Foster, Michael Vick, Marques Colston, etc.In fact, the fact that you're far more likely to find a top WR on the street than you are to find a top RB on the street is another point in Foster's favor. Finding the next Marques Colston, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Miles Austin, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, or Brandon Marshall is more likely than finding the next Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Willie Parker. Or than finding the next Michael Vick, for that matter- it's hard to get a top QB without picking or trading. Not a huge point in Foster's favor, mind you- these are all rare events, we're just talking about levels of rarity. Still, I'm a big fan of trying to be ahead of the curve and identify talents on the upslope over talents on the downslope... but there are precious few players who accrue more value over their entire careers than an uberstud RB can put up in a single 3-year span.Edit: Marshall Faulk accumulated more VBD from age 25 onward than Marvin Harrison did over his whole career. Priest Holmes had more VBD from 25 onwards than either Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce for their whole career. Shaun Alexander put up about as much VBD after his 25th birthday as Cris Carter did over his entire career. And the VBD calculations on PFR will undersell Foster, because as we established, top RBs are even more valuable in 2/2/1 leagues.
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EBF
Footballguy
I don't think I'd put Foster in the same class as Faulk or even close. I don't think he's nearly that good. He's also 26 years old, which is not young for a RB. He can still be productive for 4-5 years, but his trade value will drop sharply when he hits 27-28, so it limits your flexibility from that standpoint. The sticking point for me is that I'm not really sold on him as a great talent. Good back? Sure, but also plays in a very friendly system. Tate had a higher YPC last season and so far that has carried over into this year. I'd be just a little bit worried about that if I were a Foster owner.
In general I agree that it's easier to find a serviceable WR than RB off the street, and that's one reason why I'm starting to soften on my stance that WRs are always more valuable than RBs in ppr dynasty, but there are other variables that favor WR. They last longer and aren't as injury prone. And while you can seemingly always find a Brian Hartline or Danny Amendola to get you through a bye week, the really high quality enduring guys aren't exactly easy to come by. There might only be one Cruz or Colston per season and you have to guess right and be the early worm to get them. Some of the other names you mentioned like Boldin and Nelson were drafted and perma-rostered in my leagues before they played a down in the NFL.
Meanwhile you have guys like Andre Brown, Daryl Richardson, Shaun Draughn, Stevan Ridley, and Alfred Morris coming out of basically nowhere to achieve varying degrees of FF relevance. It's not just a WR phenomenon. It happens every year with RBs too. Of the guys I named, only Ridley was a high-ish pick in any of my leagues. The others were all sitting on waivers at some point. I feel like you can always find players who have this kind of surprise breakout potential, regardless of position. RBs are just a little harder to get because there are fewer of them, they tend to go earlier in drafts, and people tend to give them the most attention/priority in waivers. But they're still out there.
I do think you'd be better off entering a season with Foster and no WR than Julio and no RB if you were hoping to compete right away, but from a dynasty standpoint I think the better talent is usually going to have the more valuable career. Julio is not only younger than Foster, but also a lot more talented (IMO). If I were choosing between the two of them in a startup draft, I would take Julio and figure out my RB problem later.
In general I agree that it's easier to find a serviceable WR than RB off the street, and that's one reason why I'm starting to soften on my stance that WRs are always more valuable than RBs in ppr dynasty, but there are other variables that favor WR. They last longer and aren't as injury prone. And while you can seemingly always find a Brian Hartline or Danny Amendola to get you through a bye week, the really high quality enduring guys aren't exactly easy to come by. There might only be one Cruz or Colston per season and you have to guess right and be the early worm to get them. Some of the other names you mentioned like Boldin and Nelson were drafted and perma-rostered in my leagues before they played a down in the NFL.
Meanwhile you have guys like Andre Brown, Daryl Richardson, Shaun Draughn, Stevan Ridley, and Alfred Morris coming out of basically nowhere to achieve varying degrees of FF relevance. It's not just a WR phenomenon. It happens every year with RBs too. Of the guys I named, only Ridley was a high-ish pick in any of my leagues. The others were all sitting on waivers at some point. I feel like you can always find players who have this kind of surprise breakout potential, regardless of position. RBs are just a little harder to get because there are fewer of them, they tend to go earlier in drafts, and people tend to give them the most attention/priority in waivers. But they're still out there.
I do think you'd be better off entering a season with Foster and no WR than Julio and no RB if you were hoping to compete right away, but from a dynasty standpoint I think the better talent is usually going to have the more valuable career. Julio is not only younger than Foster, but also a lot more talented (IMO). If I were choosing between the two of them in a startup draft, I would take Julio and figure out my RB problem later.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
PPR
Gave: Stafford, Benson
Received: Harvin, Sproles
Good depth at QB presented this opportunity for me. Sproles is now my #1 RB if that tells you how RB poor I am.
Gave: Stafford, Benson
Received: Harvin, Sproles
Good depth at QB presented this opportunity for me. Sproles is now my #1 RB if that tells you how RB poor I am.
I agree that Foster is no Faulk... but do you really think at this point that Julio is Marvin Harrison? And while Foster may not be Faulk, he's better than Alexander, for sure. As for Tate... Michael Turner used to average a higher ypc than LaDainian Tomlinson, too. It's not worth all that much. Any Foster owner who is worried about Tate taking the job must have been asleep when Foster got his huge payday. As for your RB list... Ridley was "perma-rostered" in my league. Morris and Richardson were both drafted. Draughn has done absolutely jack. Brown is the only guy you listed who was both available on waivers and who has had a startable game. And he's had exactly ONE startable game, and he'll probable fall back behind Bradshaw and Wilson again in the long run. The fact that these are the names you throw out at RB really just proves my point, here.
Sold Foster and Tate for Calvin in the offseason. Turns out, I misjudged market value and might have been able to get Calvin straight up for Foster, but still happy to have Calvin over the two. Easiest way to get fair value for Foster is a trade for a similarly elite player (Calvin, McCoy, Julio, Rice, Richardson, etc.).
football_chewy
Footballguy
10 team PPR league with 4pt for passing TDs
Team A gives RGIII
Team B gives Rivers, Charles, Bryant
Team A gives RGIII
Team B gives Rivers, Charles, Bryant
RGIII side by a huge amount.
