2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (5 Viewers)

[menobrown]

FFPC League

I gave 1.4 and 3.3

I received Justin Blackmon

Ha! Ghost Guy was right about you not keeping those picks after all I see. He'll also think you got the better end of this deal but I'd rather have the picks but, and it probably goes without saying, I'm not as high on Blackmon as the consensus and that was my opinion before his latest brush.

 

[ghostguy123]

Dez Bryant 2.05 ForAlshon Jeffrey Rueben Randle1.02'14 1st'14 2nd(2nd) '14 2nd

I will pay that for dez then sit back and have a nice cold beer.

 

[ghostguy123]

FFPC League I gave 1.4 and 3.3 I received Justin Blackmon

Ha! Ghost Guy was right about you not keeping those picks after all I see. He'll also think you got the better end of this deal but I'd rather have the picks but, and it probably goes without saying, I'm not as high on Blackmon as the consensus and that was my opinion before his latest brush.

I don't see him actually USE very many of these picks he talks so highly of.And even with the 4 game hit, I would be happy with blackmon here. I much prefer the risk of off field stuff for a guy I know can play well in the NFL than any of the rookies in this class and their tremendous risk of not being good ON the field. Also, depending when your draft is, this year could easily produce a player with an ADP of 7 in May, but an ADP of pick 1 if you have a late draft right before the season.

 

[Bamac]

12 team ppr, 25 man rosters. All td's 6 pts. Lineup is qb,2rb,2wr,1te,1flx(rb/wr/te) d/st,k Team A trades Santonio Holmes and Panthers Steve Smith and 2013 3.12 pick Team B trades 2013 1.04 and 3.04 picks.

I'll take the 1.04 by a long ways in a start 2-3 WR league. Holmes and Smith are reserve level.

 

[dewmass]

16 Team PPR

Colston, 3.05, 2014 1st (bottom half team last year)

For

Demaryius Thomas, Dujuan Harris

Dez Bryant2.05ForAlshon JeffreyRueben Randle1.02'14 1st'14 2nd(2nd) '14 2nd

I wouldn't dare offer these kinds of deals for fear of never get anywhere in future trades. To me, thats getting Dez and DT for pennies. The one for Dez in particular was it a matter of, yeah I'm gonna offer you all this good stuff so I need a 2nd rounder back too?

 

[bengalbuck]

Made a few trades recently

12 team PPR, w/ QB flex

Gave: 1.07 and 1.11

for 1.02

12 team PPR

Gave: Alfred Morris and Lamar Miller

for Trent Richardson

14 team PPR, w/ QB Flex

Gave: Russell Wilson, 2.14, 3.14

for Big Ben, 1.10 and 2.01

 

[bengalbuck]

Made a few trades recently

12 team PPR, w/ QB flex

Gave: 1.07 and 1.11

for 1.02

12 team PPR

Gave: Alfred Morris and Lamar Miller

for Trent Richardson

14 team PPR, w/ QB Flex

Gave: Russell Wilson, 2.14, 3.14

for Big Ben, 1.10 and 2.01

For quick explanations if anyone is curious about the reasoning: In the 1st trade, probably came up short on value. But I have a deep roster with 4 or 5 WR2s and no WR1s (T. Smith, Garcon, A. Brown, etc.). Have been trying to 2 for 1 or even 3 for 1 those guys with no luck. Felt worth it to take a shot on Austin or Patterson (unless homerism takes over with Gio Bernard).

2nd trade, similar reasoning, maybe gave up a little value? But made sense for my roster as I will only be starting 2 RBs most weeks and also have McCoy, Forte and DMC.

Last one looks terrible on paper without context as QBs are super valuable in this format, but we have 7 devys total in our rookie drafts and I was able to add Teddy Bridgewater and TJ Yeldon with the 2 rookie picks a couple days ago.

 

[Andrew74]

16 Team PPR Colston, 3.05, 2014 1st (bottom half team last year) For Demaryius Thomas, Dujuan Harris

Dez Bryant2.05ForAlshon JeffreyRueben Randle1.02'14 1st'14 2nd(2nd) '14 2nd

I wouldn't dare offer these kinds of deals for fear of never get anywhere in future trades. To me, thats getting Dez and DT for pennies. The one for Dez in particular was it a matter of, yeah I'm gonna offer you all this good stuff so I need a 2nd rounder back too?

These two trades are bad sell-lows on DT and Dez.

 

[ghostguy123]

Made a few trades recently

12 team PPR, w/ QB flex

Gave: 1.07 and 1.11

for 1.02

12 team PPR

Gave: Alfred Morris and Lamar Miller

for Trent Richardson

14 team PPR, w/ QB Flex

Gave: Russell Wilson, 2.14, 3.14

for Big Ben, 1.10 and 2.01

For quick explanations if anyone is curious about the reasoning: In the 1st trade, probably came up short on value. But I have a deep roster with 4 or 5 WR2s and no WR1s (T. Smith, Garcon, A. Brown, etc.). Have been trying to 2 for 1 or even 3 for 1 those guys with no luck. Felt worth it to take a shot on Austin or Patterson (unless homerism takes over with Gio Bernard).

2nd trade, similar reasoning, maybe gave up a little value? But made sense for my roster as I will only be starting 2 RBs most weeks and also have McCoy, Forte and DMC.

Last one looks terrible on paper without context as QBs are super valuable in this format, but we have 7 devys total in our rookie drafts and I was able to add Teddy Bridgewater and TJ Yeldon with the 2 rookie picks a couple days ago.

For a quick explanation, you stole Richardson. Dont like the wilson deal

 

[roarlions]

Dynasty PPR league, start 1/2/3/1 with 1 RB/WR/TE flex

Team A gave D. Martin and B. Hartline

Team B gave A. Hernandez, R. Randle, DWill, rookie picks 1.02 and 2.02

 

[Phenix]

• The Truth gave up Mathews, Ryan SDC RB; Year 2013 Draft Pick 3.09
• They Call Me Chief One gave up Ingram, Mark NOS RB; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.09;Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.07

and

• The Truth gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 3.06
• Texan Horned Frog gave up LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

 

[SieteCinco]

Team A gave up: Jason Witten

Team B gave up: Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Da'Rick Rogers

Team A already had Jimmy Graham/Vernon Davis/Robert Housler

Team B only had Gates/Celek

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think you and others are getting way too fancy and bored over the off-season to be thinking of making trades like that. 1.04 for Garcon this year is nuts in almost any league format.

Bruce Hammond has both Patterson and Austin over Garcon, FWIW.

If you need the immediate production, Garcon's likely the way to go. But Garcon's value is laregly tied to situation, and while that will score points, especially short-term, how can you blame anyone for cashing out right now? He's a low end WR2 - not the end of the world if the gamble doesn't pay off and not a reason to pass on players with higher upside.

Sure he does. And everyone "ooo"'s and "aahhh"'s at the ranks and he gets a bunch of clicks to his page. I'm not buying it. Rookies are so perennially over-rated it's almost laughable. The real money is trading for them before their 2nd year after they have a mediocre rookie season due to not adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

I got Cobb, Gronkowski, and Hernandez all for peanuts right after their rookie years. Sure, I've also gotten plenty of 2nd year guys that continued their mediocrity and didn't pan out, but guess what? I didn't pay much for them, and certainly not a proven producer like Garcon. Buying a potential WR1 at the cost of a proven 26 year old WR2 seems asinine to me.

Gronkowski had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but one final thought on the hypothetical Garcon for 1.04 deal.

Draft picks can be overvalued, no doubt. But they also represent the low point, value wise, of most top end players. Every asset model has pros and cons in dynasty formats, and every asset model has value. Draft picks are generally the most high risk/reward investments we can make. But that doesn’t make them bad – just different. There is certainly a place for them; and I’d actually argue for them at their market value, over players like Garcon at theirs. I’d take a 50/50 shot at 100 over 60. Statistically, 60 is the correct bet to make. But 60’s don’t win leagues. Not a perfect analogy, but I think it gets my point across.

If I am trading away top picks, it’s not going to be for Garcon level players (lived and learned). If I am in the market for top picks, the Garcon model players on my roster are going to be the first to get offered.

The key to not overvaluing draft picks is to fully understand the risk. That is where owners make mistakes. If I don’t have the luxury of a pick not panning out, I don’t trade for the pick. I make this hypothetical trade understanding that I lose immediate production, and have a 50% chance of drafting a bust.

Lastly, another flawed example: If you have a bad team continually finishing in the bottom 5, and trade your 1st every year for a Garcon level player, you’re never going to dig out of that hole. You might get better, but you won’t be ever be a top level team. That illustrates the pros and cons of both models –Garcon/1.04.

, especially the last section that shows a common mistake "bad" teams make.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Michael Floyd/2.3 for Justin Blackmon

So because of a 4 game suspension for a 2nd year player playing 10 more years, Blackmons value has been cut in 1/3. I am still quite happy to have dealt pick 2 for him.

I'm not one of those people, but there were many that had Floyd ranked ahead of Blackmon in last year's class and rookie years don't mean everything.

 

[meyerj31]

I think you and others are getting way too fancy and bored over the off-season to be thinking of making trades like that. 1.04 for Garcon this year is nuts in almost any league format.

Bruce Hammond has both Patterson and Austin over Garcon, FWIW.

If you need the immediate production, Garcon's likely the way to go. But Garcon's value is laregly tied to situation, and while that will score points, especially short-term, how can you blame anyone for cashing out right now? He's a low end WR2 - not the end of the world if the gamble doesn't pay off and not a reason to pass on players with higher upside.

Sure he does. And everyone "ooo"'s and "aahhh"'s at the ranks and he gets a bunch of clicks to his page. I'm not buying it. Rookies are so perennially over-rated it's almost laughable. The real money is trading for them before their 2nd year after they have a mediocre rookie season due to not adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

I got Cobb, Gronkowski, and Hernandez all for peanuts right after their rookie years. Sure, I've also gotten plenty of 2nd year guys that continued their mediocrity and didn't pan out, but guess what? I didn't pay much for them, and certainly not a proven producer like Garcon. Buying a potential WR1 at the cost of a proven 26 year old WR2 seems asinine to me.

Gronkowski had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history.

42/546/10 ... yes, but he was still going very late in drafts that year. I picked him up in at least the 10th if not later in re-draft leagues. And it didn't cost much to get him in dynasty. I think I gave up a solid WR3 and a mid-first rookie pick.

 

[Ernol]

I think you and others are getting way too fancy and bored over the off-season to be thinking of making trades like that. 1.04 for Garcon this year is nuts in almost any league format.

Bruce Hammond has both Patterson and Austin over Garcon, FWIW.

If you need the immediate production, Garcon's likely the way to go. But Garcon's value is laregly tied to situation, and while that will score points, especially short-term, how can you blame anyone for cashing out right now? He's a low end WR2 - not the end of the world if the gamble doesn't pay off and not a reason to pass on players with higher upside.

Sure he does. And everyone "ooo"'s and "aahhh"'s at the ranks and he gets a bunch of clicks to his page. I'm not buying it. Rookies are so perennially over-rated it's almost laughable. The real money is trading for them before their 2nd year after they have a mediocre rookie season due to not adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

I got Cobb, Gronkowski, and Hernandez all for peanuts right after their rookie years. Sure, I've also gotten plenty of 2nd year guys that continued their mediocrity and didn't pan out, but guess what? I didn't pay much for them, and certainly not a proven producer like Garcon. Buying a potential WR1 at the cost of a proven 26 year old WR2 seems asinine to me.

Gronkowski had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history.

42/546/10 ... yes, but he was still going very late in drafts that year. I picked him up in at least the 10th if not later in re-draft leagues. And it didn't cost much to get him in dynasty. I think I gave up a solid WR3 and a mid-first rookie pick.

A solid WR3 and mid-first rookie pick is not what I envisioned when you said you got him for "peanuts" after his rookie year. Your earlier statements implied that if you simply wait a year, you could get the likes of Cobb, Gronkowski and Hernandez for less than what you would have had to pay had you bought them as a rookie. I'd imagine that Gronk would not have cost you more than a WR3 and mid-first rookie pick when he came out of college (much less actually). So in this case, the real money as you indicated would have been to buy Gronk as a rookie, not in his second year (as with most rookies that pan out).

 

[doubletrouble]

made 3 trades...had the 13th pick of 16 team...new dynasty start-up ppr

My: 1.13, 2.04, 3.13, 4.08, 5.13, 7.13

for

His: 2.10, 3.12, 3.09, 4.08, 3.07, 5.07, 7.07

So I have 2.10, 3.07, 3.09, 3.12, 4.04, 4.08, 5.07, 6.04, 7.07, etc

Thoughts?

 

[kutta]

made 3 trades...had the 13th pick of 16 team...new dynasty start-up ppr

My: 1.13, 2.04, 3.13, 4.08, 5.13, 7.13

for

His: 2.10, 3.12, 3.09, 4.08, 3.07, 5.07, 7.07

So I have 2.10, 3.07, 3.09, 3.12, 4.04, 4.08, 5.07, 6.04, 7.07, etc

Thoughts?

You have pick 4.08 as a give and a get. Not sure which it is.

I'm not sure I like this for you. Assuming everything after 4 is about a wash, and 3.12 and 3.13 are about equal, you gave 1.13 and 2.04, and got 2.10, 3.07, and 3.09. You pick up an extra pick at 3.09, but in a 16 team league, those earlier picks are very valuable. Losing 1.13 and 2.04 are going to hurt.

 

[menobrown]

I think you and others are getting way too fancy and bored over the off-season to be thinking of making trades like that. 1.04 for Garcon this year is nuts in almost any league format.

Bruce Hammond has both Patterson and Austin over Garcon, FWIW.

If you need the immediate production, Garcon's likely the way to go. But Garcon's value is laregly tied to situation, and while that will score points, especially short-term, how can you blame anyone for cashing out right now? He's a low end WR2 - not the end of the world if the gamble doesn't pay off and not a reason to pass on players with higher upside.

Sure he does. And everyone "ooo"'s and "aahhh"'s at the ranks and he gets a bunch of clicks to his page. I'm not buying it. Rookies are so perennially over-rated it's almost laughable. The real money is trading for them before their 2nd year after they have a mediocre rookie season due to not adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

I got Cobb, Gronkowski, and Hernandez all for peanuts right after their rookie years. Sure, I've also gotten plenty of 2nd year guys that continued their mediocrity and didn't pan out, but guess what? I didn't pay much for them, and certainly not a proven producer like Garcon. Buying a potential WR1 at the cost of a proven 26 year old WR2 seems asinine to me.

Gronkowski had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history.

42/546/10 ... yes, but he was still going very late in drafts that year. I picked him up in at least the 10th if not later in re-draft leagues. And it didn't cost much to get him in dynasty. I think I gave up a solid WR3 and a mid-first rookie pick.

A solid WR3 and mid-first rookie pick is not what I envisioned when you said you got him for "peanuts" after his rookie year. Your earlier statements implied that if you simply wait a year, you could get the likes of Cobb, Gronkowski and Hernandez for less than what you would have had to pay had you bought them as a rookie. I'd imagine that Gronk would not have cost you more than a WR3 and mid-first rookie pick when he came out of college (much less actually). So in this case, the real money as you indicated would have been to buy Gronk as a rookie, not in his second year (as with most rookies that pan out).

For some reason most of the Dynasty leagues I'm did startup ins 2011. Some things on Gronk.

In 2010 in a single PPR league Gronk was on the waiver wire during his rookie year. Ernol, in our FFPC league I can't recall if Gronk was on the waiver wire his rookie year but it would not surprise me an that's a 1.5 TE PPR league.

After his rookie year no there was a lot of back and forth over who was going to the man, Hernandez or Gronk. Seemed a little hard to digest at the time that the answer could be both. Early reports out of camp implied Gronk was a man among boys. Than during pre-season Gronk was largely invisible and Hernandez soared over Gronk in the majority of rankings.

So that year I did a lot of startup and started falling in love with Gronk, and liking Hernandez. In one league, that FFPC league I mentioned, I traded Welker and some throw in's for Gronk and a throw in. At the time Gronk's ADP was a few rounds lower and a friend of mind told me he'd never have done that deal and I'm sure some who saw that deal thought I got took.

In the startup leagues I did I acquired Gronk in all but one and that's only because I co-managed that team. Cost was a 7th rounder in a 1.5 PPR league and 9th rounder in a single PPR. That year in the FFPC main event I got Gronk in the 9th and Hernandez was going in the 5th-6th round by this time of redraft leagues.

So even after his rookie year his cost was not that high but I guess high is a relative term. When I gave Welker it was assumed I overpaid. In the league I took him 7th I took Hernandez with back to back picks and I had two league members tell me I got the better TE with Hernandez. In that same league I took Gresham over both of them.

 

[Concept Coop]

made 3 trades...had the 13th pick of 16 team...new dynasty start-up ppr

My: 1.13, 2.04, 3.13, 4.08, 5.13, 7.13

for

His: 2.10, 3.12, 3.09, 4.08, 3.07, 5.07, 7.07

So I have 2.10, 3.07, 3.09, 3.12, 4.04, 4.08, 5.07, 6.04, 7.07, etc

Thoughts?

It's really hard to say without knowing how the chips fall, but on paper, if I am reading it right, it's not bad. It sounds like you turned 1,2 into 2,3,3,4 and a few swaps within rounds.

 

[Warhogs]

Cleveland Browns gave up:Brady, Tom NEP QBYear 2013 Draft Pick 1.11Green Bay Packers gave up:Gabbert, Blaine JAC QBHenne, Chad JAC QBYear 2013 Draft Pick 1.07Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.09

 

[solorca]

Team A Gave - Aaron Hernandez, Ronnie Hillman, 2.04

Team B Gave - Tavon Austin, Dennis Pitta, 2014 1st (probably top 5)

 

[JamboTaylor]

R.Mathews

for

P.Garcon

 

[cstu]

12 team FFPC

T Y Hilton (IND)Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 5 Overall 5Draft Pick - Round 3 Pick 5 Overall 292014 Draft, Rnd 1For

Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 1 Overall 1Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 3 Overall 32014 Draft, Rnd 2

The team that gave the 1 and 3 made the offer which begs the question, if someone asks you to rob them is it still considered theft?

12 team FFPC

T Y Hilton (IND)Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 5 Overall 5Draft Pick - Round 3 Pick 5 Overall 292014 Draft, Rnd 1For

Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 1 Overall 1Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 3 Overall 32014 Draft, Rnd 2

The team that gave the 1 and 3 made the offer which begs the question, if someone asks you to rob them is it still considered theft?

Breaking it down:

1.01 for the 1.05 and 2014 1st - ok, fine

1.03 and 2nd for Hilton and 3.05 - oof

 

[Christo]

Michael Floyd/2.3 for Justin Blackmon

So because of a 4 game suspension for a 2nd year player playing 10 more years, Blackmons value has been cut in 1/3. I am still quite happy to have dealt pick 2 for him.

I'm not one of those people, but there were many that had Floyd ranked ahead of Blackmon in last year's class and rookie years don't mean everything.

If not, they were still pretty close. Bloom had them at 3 & 6 pre-draft and 5 & 8 post-draft.

 

[ghostguy123]

Cleveland Browns gave up:

Brady, Tom NEP QB

Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.11

Green Bay Packers gave up:

Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB

Henne, Chad JAC QB

Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.07

Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.09

To me this looks a lot like Brady for pick 7. Bad

 

[ghostguy123]

R.Mathews

for

P.Garcon

Will take Mathews here.

 

[ghostguy123]

Michael Floyd/2.3 for Justin Blackmon

So because of a 4 game suspension for a 2nd year player playing 10 more years, Blackmons value has been cut in 1/3. I am still quite happy to have dealt pick 2 for him.

I'm not one of those people, but there were many that had Floyd ranked ahead of Blackmon in last year's class and rookie years don't mean everything.

If not, they were still pretty close. Bloom had them at 3 & 6 pre-draft and 5 & 8 post-draft.

Last year was last year. On the field Blackmon showed he could produce very well. Floyd did not. Not saying Floyd can't cause who knows with that Cardinal team, but since we saw Blackmon do it, of course his value to go way up while Floyds is about the same.

Where they were ranked last year is pretty meaningless. I am sure people ranked Hillman over Morris. Do they now?? Are they even within 10 rounds of each other?

No rookie years do not mean everything, but they sure as hell mean SOMEthing.

 

[Ernol]

FFPC League

I gave 1.4 and 3.3

I received Justin Blackmon

Ha! Ghost Guy was right about you not keeping those picks after all I see. He'll also think you got the better end of this deal but I'd rather have the picks but, and it probably goes without saying, I'm not as high on Blackmon as the consensus and that was my opinion before his latest brush.

This is not the same league where I just acquired the 1.4 btw (mentioned a few days ago). Here, simply traded one undervalued asset for another. Liking rookies doesn't mean I won't trade rookie picks when I think it makes sense to do so (the Blackmon trade was offered to me). Still hold the 1.7 in this particular FFPC league, and the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4 in another and looking to acquire a few more, so I'll get my chances. Last year was slim for drafting (my error), but in FFPC leagues alone, managed to draft TRich in 2 leagues, David Wilson at the 1.3 and RGIII for the 1.11 (yikes!). Wish I had drafted more, obviously.

As for the Garcon hypothetical, put me in the 1.4 camp. Would much rather have Tavon or Patterson. In fact, just now offered Garcon/Knowshon for the 1.6 (to Dez/Henry), and would throw in a 2014 3rd to get that one done (don't have anything else to offer unfortunately).

 

[EBF]

Last year was last year. On the field Blackmon showed he could produce very well. Floyd did not.

I like Blackmon a little more than Floyd, but I don't think there's much truth in this.

People look at Blackmon's yardage and think he had a solid rookie year, but it's not quite that simple. Blackmon did not have a very good conversion rate and did not have great efficiency last season. The primary reason why he had a respectable yardage total is because he had a truckload of targets. 133, which was more than Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, and Julio Jones. Blackmon ranked 17th among NFL pass catchers in targets, but just 29th in yards. In other words, he was very wasteful. You can blame that all on Gabbert and Henne, but Cecil Shorts was excellent with the exact same supporting cast.

On the flipside, Floyd ranked 62nd in the NFL in targets, but 80th in yards. So while he wasn't great either, he wasn't that much worse than Blackmon. And he did that with puke QBs who made even Larry Fitzgerald look awful. I can't believe I'm writing this, but even Gabbert/Henne were way better than Arizona's QBs. Looking at the numbers:

Floyd - 86 targets for 562 yards (6.53 yards per target)

Blackmon - 133 targets for 865 yards (6.50 yards per target)

Floyd was actually a bit more effective than Blackmon last year. However, Floyd almost certainly had more favorable matchups since he would never have been the focus of opposing defenses as the clear cut #2/#3, whereas Blackmon operated as the de facto #1 and thus probably saw tougher coverage.

Bottom line is that neither one of these guys really had a good rookie year and both would need to take major steps forward in future seasons to become frontline NFL receivers, but the gap in their production owes as much to opportunity as it does efficiency. I'm not sky high on Michael Floyd, but he's really being overlooked. He was drafted into one of the worst situations possible for immediate production and actually fared reasonably well when you account for his inexperience, horrendous QB service, and lack of opportunity.

 

[ghostguy123]

Last year was last year. On the field Blackmon showed he could produce very well. Floyd did not.

I like Blackmon a little more than Floyd, but I don't think there's much truth in this.

People look at Blackmon's yardage and think he had a solid rookie year, but it's not quite that simple. Blackmon did not have a very good conversion rate and did not have great efficiency last season. The primary reason why he had a respectable yardage total is because he had a truckload of targets. 133, which was more than Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, and Julio Jones. Blackmon ranked 17th among NFL pass catchers in targets, but just 29th in yards. In other words, he was very wasteful. You can blame that all on Gabbert and Henne, but Cecil Shorts was excellent with the exact same supporting cast.

On the flipside, Floyd ranked 62nd in the NFL in targets, but 80th in yards. So while he wasn't great either, he wasn't that much worse than Blackmon. And he did that with puke QBs who made even Larry Fitzgerald look awful. I can't believe I'm writing this, but even Gabbert/Henne were way better than Arizona's QBs. Looking at the numbers:

Floyd - 86 targets for 562 yards (6.53 yards per target)

Blackmon - 133 targets for 865 yards (6.50 yards per target)

Floyd was actually a bit more effective than Blackmon last year. However, Floyd almost certainly had more favorable matchups since he would never have been the focus of opposing defenses as the clear cut #2/#3, whereas Blackmon operated as the de facto #1 and thus probably saw tougher coverage.

Bottom line is that neither one of these guys really had a good rookie year and both would need to take major steps forward in future seasons to become frontline NFL receivers, but the gap in their production owes as much to opportunity as it does efficiency. I'm not sky high on Michael Floyd, but he's really being overlooked. He was drafted into one of the worst situations possible for immediate production and actually fared reasonably well when you account for his inexperience, horrendous QB service, and lack of opportunity.

Floyd was a #3-4 WR, Blackmon was #1. Efficiency numbers really cant be compared there. If anything, Floyd SHOULD have had drastically better numbers "per target" than Blackmon.

And to say Blackmon didnt have a very good rookie year would imply that almost nobody ever has a good rookie year then. It goes beyond numbers anyway. Blackmon LOOKED the part of a soon to be legit #1 NFL WR. Not even talking about fantasy, but an actual NFL WR, and the numbers will come assuming someone with some QB ability is ever throwing to him.

I like Floyd also and think he will be good, but I dont ever see legit NFL #1 WR from him. maybe I am wrong, but I dont see it.

But to repeat, yes Blackmon did indeed have a very good rookie season. What the hell would he have needed to do playing with some of the worst QBs out there to show you otherwise??

And if you read what I wrote earlier a bit more clearly, I never said Floyd showed that he cant produce. I said he didnt show he could. Meaning, its not possible for him to have shown he can produce if he didnt actually produce..........................hope that makes sense.

 

[EBF]

But to repeat, yes Blackmon did indeed have a very good rookie season. What the hell would he have needed to do playing with some of the worst QBs out there to show you otherwise??

The simple answer is that he would have needed to have been more efficient with his opportunities. As I pointed out, his yards per target and conversion rate were not great.

Justin Blackmon - 133 targets, 64 catches, 48.1% conversion rate, 6.50 yards per target

You can say that the QB situation is to blame for his poor performance, but then how do you explain this?

Cecil Shorts - 106 targets, 55 catches, 51.9% conversion rate, 9.23 yards per target

For all the shortcomings of Gabbert and Henne, it's clear that Jacksonville's QB situation wasn't so bad that it completely excuses bad production. Shorts was excellent on the same team with the exact same passers. Arizona is a slightly different beast because all of their receivers struggled.

Larry Fitzgerald - 153 targets, 71 catches, 46.4% conversion rate, 5.22 yards per target

Andre Roberts - 113 targets, 64 catches, 56.6% conversion rate, 6.72 yards per target

Michael Floyd - 86 targets, 45 catches, 52.3% conversion rate, 6.53 yards per target

The fact that none of these guys thrived is indicative of a truly toxic situation, whereas the success of Shorts in Jacksonville pokes some holes in the idea that Henne and Gabbert are to blame for Blackmon's struggles. Being a rookie who was thrust into a prominent role with a big target on his back undoubtedly hurt his efficiency, but there were other first year players in similar situations who did better.

Justin Blackmon - 133 targets, 64 catches, 48.1% conversion rate, 6.50 yards per target

Josh Gordon - 96 targets, 50 catches, 52.1% conversion rate, 8.38 yards per target

Chris Givens - 81 targets, 42 catches, 51.9% conversion rate, 8.62 yards per target

TY Hilton - 91 targets, 50 catches, 54.9% conversion rate, 9.46 yards per target

Julio Jones (2011) - 96 targets, 54 catches, 56.3% conversion rate, 9.99 yards per target

AJ Green (2011) - 116 targets, 65 catches, 56.0% conversion rate, 9.11 yards per target

A big mistake people make in FF is just looking at the year end totals without analyzing how the player got there. This is another good example of that phenomenon. People really overrate how well Blackmon did last year. He was more of an accumulator than a playmaker, succeeding by virtue of sheer opportunity and not because he was effective when called upon. I'm still fairly high on his talent, but that's based more on what I think he might become than on what he was last year.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I guess Andre Roberts is the best WR in ARI. QED.

 

[EBF]

I guess Andre Roberts is the best WR in ARI. QED.

He's a lot better than people realize and will probably get a nice contract somewhere when he hits free agency next year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Blackmon had a great 2nd half of the season. He came in to camp late and didn't have chemistry with Gabbert. Feel free to pro-rate 2nd half stats and feel great about his football prospects, if he can stay on the field.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I guess Andre Roberts is the best WR in ARI. QED.

He's a lot better than people realize and will probably get a nice contract somewhere when he hits free agency next year.

Something like 1 yr 2.5 mil I would bet

 

[GeeYouknit]

2 separate trades, not my teams

Team A gets Carson Palmer

Team B gets 3.09

2QB league and team A only has Drew Brees and RGIII (and Kirk Cousins)

Same League, same team B

Team A gets Jared Cook

Team B gets 1.09 and 2.09

Overpaying for Cook if you ask me, but he is a great athlete going to a much better situation so you never know.

 

[menobrown]

Blackmon had a great 2nd half of the season. He came in to camp late and didn't have chemistry with Gabbert. Feel free to pro-rate 2nd half stats and feel great about his football prospects, if he can stay on the field.

I think it's bit of an over simplification to say he had a great second half and did not have chemistry with Gabbert. He stunk with Gabbert, period. His play spiked the game Gabbert got hurt. I don't see that as coincidence. I won't argue that he likely improved as the season went on but the spike was to large for me to chalk up to just improvement on Blackmons part.

For Dynasty not the biggest concern in the world because if Gabbert does not improve he won't be his QB past this season. Someone mentioned in an earlier post, might have been you, that Blackmon proved his QB does not matter. I don't agree with that all.It's impressive that you can perform with Henne but from what I saw last year his QB does matter.

It's kind of how I used to view Britt. His stats spiked when Vince Young was not the QB and Kerry Collins was which led to me believe he could perform with a less than average QB. Juries still out on that one.

As for the Floyd vs Blackmon debate. I'm of the opinion Floyd dealt with sub-Gabbert play all year. When you look at his efficiency vs that of Fitzgerald it's hard for me be be down on his lack of production. I believe this was laid out nicely by EBF. In terms of fantasy they averaged the same fantasy points per attempt, 1.37. Now Floyd is the one that gets the major QB jump and if you review the fantasy relevance of WR's under Arians it's stellar. Also taking into account Floyd is not a strike away from a year long absence I'd rate them about evenly myself.

 

[menobrown]

12 team FFPC

T Y Hilton (IND)Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 5 Overall 5Draft Pick - Round 3 Pick 5 Overall 292014 Draft, Rnd 1For

Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 1 Overall 1Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 3 Overall 32014 Draft, Rnd 2

The team that gave the 1 and 3 made the offer which begs the question, if someone asks you to rob them is it still considered theft?

>

12 team FFPC

T Y Hilton (IND)Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 5 Overall 5Draft Pick - Round 3 Pick 5 Overall 292014 Draft, Rnd 1For

Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 1 Overall 1Draft Pick - Round 1 Pick 3 Overall 32014 Draft, Rnd 2

The team that gave the 1 and 3 made the offer which begs the question, if someone asks you to rob them is it still considered theft?

Breaking it down:

1.01 for the 1.05 and 2014 1st - ok, fine

1.03 and 2nd for Hilton and 3.05 - oof

Worse really when you add some context. The team giving up the 2014 won the league the first two years( 3 year league). Had a down year last year. Is no longer on paper the top team in the league, that belongs to Ernol that you see posting in here, but it's still a strong team that most would project as a playoff team. Team giving up the 2014 second is one most would not project as a playoff team.

So short version of what I'm trying to say is the difference between that 2014 first and 2014 might be extremely small. And since this is an FFPC league that third rounder is not of great value. Less than a 20% chance that player is on your roster when the season ends.

 

[menobrown]

This is not the same league where I just acquired the 1.4 btw (mentioned a few days ago). Here, simply traded one undervalued asset for another. Liking rookies doesn't mean I won't trade rookie picks when I think it makes sense to do so (the Blackmon trade was offered to me). Still hold the 1.7 in this particular FFPC league, and the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4 in another and looking to acquire a few more, so I'll get my chances. Last year was slim for drafting (my error), but in FFPC leagues alone, managed to draft TRich in 2 leagues, David Wilson at the 1.3 and RGIII for the 1.11 (yikes!). Wish I had drafted more, obviously.

Sorry did not know that. I've never had a pick higher than pick 7 in an FFPC league and I've only traded my first rounder once, to you in the startup draft. I think that ended up being pick 5.

You certainly nailed the pics you had and getting RG3 at 1.11 is just sick. Without looking I can only guess someone was grabbing the likes of Brian Quick to push a guy like him back. Foolish.

 

[Concept Coop]

Blackmon had a great 2nd half of the season. He came in to camp late and didn't have chemistry with Gabbert. Feel free to pro-rate 2nd half stats and feel great about his football prospects, if he can stay on the field.

I think it's bit of an over simplification to say he had a great second half and did not have chemistry with Gabbert. He stunk with Gabbert, period. His play spiked the game Gabbert got hurt. I don't see that as coincidence. I won't argue that he likely improved as the season went on but the spike was to large for me to chalk up to just improvement on Blackmons part.

For Dynasty not the biggest concern in the world because if Gabbert does not improve he won't be his QB past this season. Someone mentioned in an earlier post, might have been you, that Blackmon proved his QB does not matter. I don't agree with that all.It's impressive that you can perform with Henne but from what I saw last year his QB does matter.

It's kind of how I used to view Britt. His stats spiked when Vince Young was not the QB and Kerry Collins was which led to me believe he could perform with a less than average QB. Juries still out on that one.

As for the Floyd vs Blackmon debate. I'm of the opinion Floyd dealt with sub-Gabbert play all year. When you look at his efficiency vs that of Fitzgerald it's hard for me be be down on his lack of production. I believe this was laid out nicely by EBF. In terms of fantasy they averaged the same fantasy points per attempt, 1.37. Now Floyd is the one that gets the major QB jump and if you review the fantasy relevance of WR's under Arians it's stellar. Also taking into account Floyd is not a strike away from a year long absence I'd rate them about evenly myself.

What do you make of his improved play without Gabbert, then? It's not as though he went from Gabbert to a quality NFL starter. He still put up numbers with Henne. He started slow, but he got to camp late, too.

I don't have a great read on Floyd, and perhaps he is underrated. But I don't agree with the statement that Blackmon didn't have a good rookie year. It's half true. The second half showed future NFL WR1 to me.

 

[jonboltz]

2 separate trades, not my teams

Team A gets Carson Palmer

Team B gets 3.09

2QB league and team A only has Drew Brees and RGIII (and Kirk Cousins)

Silly cheap for Carson in a 2QB.

 

[Dez]

I think you and others are getting way too fancy and bored over the off-season to be thinking of making trades like that. 1.04 for Garcon this year is nuts in almost any league format.

Bruce Hammond has both Patterson and Austin over Garcon, FWIW.

If you need the immediate production, Garcon's likely the way to go. But Garcon's value is laregly tied to situation, and while that will score points, especially short-term, how can you blame anyone for cashing out right now? He's a low end WR2 - not the end of the world if the gamble doesn't pay off and not a reason to pass on players with higher upside.

Sure he does. And everyone "ooo"'s and "aahhh"'s at the ranks and he gets a bunch of clicks to his page. I'm not buying it. Rookies are so perennially over-rated it's almost laughable. The real money is trading for them before their 2nd year after they have a mediocre rookie season due to not adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

I got Cobb, Gronkowski, and Hernandez all for peanuts right after their rookie years. Sure, I've also gotten plenty of 2nd year guys that continued their mediocrity and didn't pan out, but guess what? I didn't pay much for them, and certainly not a proven producer like Garcon. Buying a potential WR1 at the cost of a proven 26 year old WR2 seems asinine to me.

Gronkowski had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history.

42/546/10 ... yes, but he was still going very late in drafts that year. I picked him up in at least the 10th if not later in re-draft leagues. And it didn't cost much to get him in dynasty. I think I gave up a solid WR3 and a mid-first rookie pick.

A solid WR3 and mid-first rookie pick is not what I envisioned when you said you got him for "peanuts" after his rookie year. Your earlier statements implied that if you simply wait a year, you could get the likes of Cobb, Gronkowski and Hernandez for less than what you would have had to pay had you bought them as a rookie. I'd imagine that Gronk would not have cost you more than a WR3 and mid-first rookie pick when he came out of college (much less actually). So in this case, the real money as you indicated would have been to buy Gronk as a rookie, not in his second year (as with most rookies that pan out).

For some reason most of the Dynasty leagues I'm did startup ins 2011. Some things on Gronk.

In 2010 in a single PPR league Gronk was on the waiver wire during his rookie year. Ernol, in our FFPC league I can't recall if Gronk was on the waiver wire his rookie year but it would not surprise me an that's a 1.5 TE PPR league.

After his rookie year no there was a lot of back and forth over who was going to the man, Hernandez or Gronk. Seemed a little hard to digest at the time that the answer could be both. Early reports out of camp implied Gronk was a man among boys. Than during pre-season Gronk was largely invisible and Hernandez soared over Gronk in the majority of rankings.

So that year I did a lot of startup and started falling in love with Gronk, and liking Hernandez. In one league, that FFPC league I mentioned, I traded Welker and some throw in's for Gronk and a throw in. At the time Gronk's ADP was a few rounds lower and a friend of mind told me he'd never have done that deal and I'm sure some who saw that deal thought I got took.

In the startup leagues I did I acquired Gronk in all but one and that's only because I co-managed that team. Cost was a 7th rounder in a 1.5 PPR league and 9th rounder in a single PPR. That year in the FFPC main event I got Gronk in the 9th and Hernandez was going in the 5th-6th round by this time of redraft leagues.

So even after his rookie year his cost was not that high but I guess high is a relative term. When I gave Welker it was assumed I overpaid. In the league I took him 7th I took Hernandez with back to back picks and I had two league members tell me I got the better TE with Hernandez. In that same league I took Gresham over both of them.

In our 2010 startup Ming picked Gronk at 16.7 and kept him the entire season before trading him to you the following season.

In 2011 the one startup I was in Gronk went at 9.7 (Hernandez 8.4) then my team traded for Gronk by giving up Ben Tate then traded Gronk for just a 2/3/4/7 so his value wasn't exactly high going into last year in my league.

 

[menobrown]

Blackmon had a great 2nd half of the season. He came in to camp late and didn't have chemistry with Gabbert. Feel free to pro-rate 2nd half stats and feel great about his football prospects, if he can stay on the field.

I think it's bit of an over simplification to say he had a great second half and did not have chemistry with Gabbert. He stunk with Gabbert, period. His play spiked the game Gabbert got hurt. I don't see that as coincidence. I won't argue that he likely improved as the season went on but the spike was to large for me to chalk up to just improvement on Blackmons part.

For Dynasty not the biggest concern in the world because if Gabbert does not improve he won't be his QB past this season. Someone mentioned in an earlier post, might have been you, that Blackmon proved his QB does not matter. I don't agree with that all.It's impressive that you can perform with Henne but from what I saw last year his QB does matter.

It's kind of how I used to view Britt. His stats spiked when Vince Young was not the QB and Kerry Collins was which led to me believe he could perform with a less than average QB. Juries still out on that one.

As for the Floyd vs Blackmon debate. I'm of the opinion Floyd dealt with sub-Gabbert play all year. When you look at his efficiency vs that of Fitzgerald it's hard for me be be down on his lack of production. I believe this was laid out nicely by EBF. In terms of fantasy they averaged the same fantasy points per attempt, 1.37. Now Floyd is the one that gets the major QB jump and if you review the fantasy relevance of WR's under Arians it's stellar. Also taking into account Floyd is not a strike away from a year long absence I'd rate them about evenly myself.

What do you make of his improved play without Gabbert, then? It's not as though he went from Gabbert to a quality NFL starter. He still put up numbers with Henne. He started slow, but he got to camp late, too.

I don't have a great read on Floyd, and perhaps he is underrated. But I don't agree with the statement that Blackmon didn't have a good rookie year. It's half true. The second half showed future NFL WR1 to me.

Don't attribute the bolded to me. I did not say that, he did have a good rookie year. I was just pointing out he was dismal with Gabbert. I'll also add my opinion of Blackmon spiked positively during the pre-season because he does pass the eye test.

Why the improvement without Gabbert besides the obvious that Gabbert sucks? I really can't say for sure. Chemistry issues you'd think. Some QB's don't trust their WR's to make plays, some do. It's like when Kolb first went to Arizona it was maddening that it took him so long to understand that Fitz is not covered even when he's covered.

 

[Dez]

It wasn't long ago many were bailing on my boy Dez and I seen some pretty awful trades early during last season when everyone was in panic mode. I used to listen to a fantasy dynasty show that said to sell Dez early last year and get what you could for him.

If you truly believe in a guy sometimes you just have to keep the faith even with everyone else jumping ship all around you.

 

[meyerj31]

menobrown, on 03 May 2013 - 17:35, said:

Concept Coop, on 03 May 2013 - 17:20, said:

menobrown, on 03 May 2013 - 16:51, said:

Concept Coop, on 03 May 2013 - 16:36, said:

Blackmon had a great 2nd half of the season. He came in to camp late and didn't have chemistry with Gabbert. Feel free to pro-rate 2nd half stats and feel great about his football prospects, if he can stay on the field.

I think it's bit of an over simplification to say he had a great second half and did not have chemistry with Gabbert. He stunk with Gabbert, period. His play spiked the game Gabbert got hurt. I don't see that as coincidence. I won't argue that he likely improved as the season went on but the spike was to large for me to chalk up to just improvement on Blackmons part.

For Dynasty not the biggest concern in the world because if Gabbert does not improve he won't be his QB past this season. Someone mentioned in an earlier post, might have been you, that Blackmon proved his QB does not matter. I don't agree with that all.It's impressive that you can perform with Henne but from what I saw last year his QB does matter.

It's kind of how I used to view Britt. His stats spiked when Vince Young was not the QB and Kerry Collins was which led to me believe he could perform with a less than average QB. Juries still out on that one.

As for the Floyd vs Blackmon debate. I'm of the opinion Floyd dealt with sub-Gabbert play all year. When you look at his efficiency vs that of Fitzgerald it's hard for me be be down on his lack of production. I believe this was laid out nicely by EBF. In terms of fantasy they averaged the same fantasy points per attempt, 1.37. Now Floyd is the one that gets the major QB jump and if you review the fantasy relevance of WR's under Arians it's stellar. Also taking into account Floyd is not a strike away from a year long absence I'd rate them about evenly myself.

What do you make of his improved play without Gabbert, then? It's not as though he went from Gabbert to a quality NFL starter. He still put up numbers with Henne. He started slow, but he got to camp late, too. I don't have a great read on Floyd, and perhaps he is underrated. But I don't agree with the statement that Blackmon didn't have a good rookie year. It's half true. The second half showed future NFL WR1 to me.

Don't attribute the bolded to me. I did not say that, he did have a good rookie year. I was just pointing out he was dismal with Gabbert. I'll also add my opinion of Blackmon spiked positively during the pre-season because he does pass the eye test.Why the improvement without Gabbert besides the obvious that Gabbert sucks? I really can't say for sure. Chemistry issues you'd think. Some QB's don't trust their WR's to make plays, some do. It's like when Kolb first went to Arizona it was maddening that it took him so long to understand that Fitz is not covered even when he's covered.

?????????????????????????Blackmon didn't have a good rookie year? That's news to me. If I recall correctly his stats were better than Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and close to AJ Green (little less yardage), as well as better than a slew of other high profile WRs in their rookie years. All of that with a bottom feeder QB throwing him the ball.

Blackmon has a bright future... sucks he got the suspension but I'm buying him all day twice on Tuesday.

 

[Concept Coop]

?????????????????????????Blackmon didn't have a good rookie year? That's news to me. If I recall correctly his stats were better than Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and close to AJ Green (little less yardage), as well as better than a slew of other high profile WRs in their rookie years. All of that with a bottom feeder QB throwing him the ball.Blackmon has a bright future... sucks he got the suspension but I'm buying him all day twice on Tuesday.

EBF said that; not Meno.

 

[EBF]

?????????????????????????Blackmon didn't have a good rookie year? That's news to me. If I recall correctly his stats were better than Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and close to AJ Green (little less yardage), as well as better than a slew of other high profile WRs in their rookie years. All of that with a bottom feeder QB throwing him the ball

His rookie year looks better than it was on paper because most people still just focus on the year end totals without looking deeper into the stats. 865 receiving yards is a good rookie season in a vacuum, but is it a good rookie season for someone who receives 133 targets? I think that's a lot more questionable. Here's how his rookie year compares to some prominent high picks, including the guys you mentioned: Justin Blackmon - 133 targets, 64 catches, 48.1% conversion rate, 6.50 yards per targetJulio Jones (2011) - 96 targets, 54 catches, 56.3% conversion rate, 9.99 yards per targetAJ Green (2011) - 116 targets, 65 catches, 56.0% conversion rate, 9.11 yards per targetDez Bryant (2010) - 72 targets, 45 catches, 62.5% conversion rate, 7.79 yards per targetMichael Crabtree (2009) - 86 targets, 48 catches, 55.8% conversion rate, 7.27 yards per targetPercy Harvin (2009) - 91 targets, 60 catches, 65.9% conversion rate, 8.68 yards per targetHakeem Nicks (2009) - 75 targets, 47 catches, 62.7% conversion rate, 10.53 yards per targetCalvin Johnson (2007) - 95 targets, 48 catches, 50.5% conversion rate, 7.96 yards per target Blackmon's yardage might have been better than a lot of these guys, but that doesn't mean he had a better rookie year. Jones and Green had more yards on fewer opportunities and in my view clearly outplayed Blackmon. It's closer with some of these others, but they all had higher conversion rates and yards per target averages. Sometimes by a wide margin. The main reason why Blackmon's stats look like they're on par with guys like Calvin and Dez is because he had more targets by a huge margin. If you had given Calvin 133 targets as a rookie, he probably would've broken the 1000 yard barrier. For the sake of comparison, Dez Bryant had 138 targets and 1382 receiving yards last season. 5 more targets than Blackmon. 517 more yards. It's not fair to compare a third year veteran with a rookie, but the idea that Blackmon had a great rookie year is a bit off base in my opinion. On the balance, his stats weren't that great. Josh Gordon had a superior rookie year by far in similar circumstances. If you rate Blackmon highly, it should be with the belief that he'll improve significantly in future seasons. He was a volume player as a rookie, not a playmaker.

 

[Concept Coop]

YPT without context is a flawed stat (not suggesting you don't know that). And you're comparing him to 8 guys who Blackmon could end up being worse than, and still make his fantasy owners very happy. The first half was bad - he was being forced low quality targets by Gabbert. No excuse, Blackmon didn't play very well and didn't present many quality targets either. But the second half of the season was on par with the elite rookie WR seasons.