2014 ACC Basketball [Closed - use 2015 thread instead] (1 Viewer)

[Ramblin Wreck]

Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

Because Paul Hewitt destroyed the program and we need guaranteed wins since we're playing 4 true freshman and a sophomore transfer. We usually don't schedule this way and I doubt Gregory keeps doing it long term.

 

[NMYMND]

KenPom forecasts the conference regular season champs using data through the 12/31 games and running 10000 simulations of the conference schedules.

Here's how the ACC played out. The number next to each team is how many times they had the most conference wins in a simulation. Unlisted teams had zero simulated conference titles. Note this is not necessarily a predicted order of finish in the conference. Divide each number by 100 to get the team's percentage chance of having the most wins in 2013 ACC play.

ACC

Duke 8797

Virginia 476

North Carolina St. 235

Miami FL 226

North Carolina 143

Maryland 59

Georgia Tech 43

Florida St. 14

Clemson 8

KenPom: "This exercise gives you some insight into schedule difficulty in conferences that no longer play double round-robins (which is almost all of them). I don’t doubt I have UVa overrated, but they only have to play Duke, N.C. State, and Miami once each while UNC’s single-game opponents are the four-lowest rated teams in the conference: Clemson, Va. Tech, Boston College, and Wake Forest. That kind of stuff matters."

"‏@kenpomeroy UNC has the most-difficult ACC schedule possible. Plays each of the top 7 teams twice. Bottom four once." Not a good year for that to happen. Also suspect that if he could adjust for Miami based on injuries, would see them slip.

 

[NMYMND]

Parker is Duke's starting 4 next year. He'll play like Luol Deng did or how they used Melo (who I think Jabari is a dead ringer for at the same stage) for team USA.No chance he's there more than 1 year. He's a different type of kid, but top 5 picks don't come back to school. They just don't.

Agreed, but he'll be the 4 more out of necessity and assuming Hood outplays Amile. But a 3/4 of Hood/Jabari looks pretty nice. If Sheed sticks around with Cook at the 1, that is a pretty daunting starting 5. But I guess Josh is our backup 5?

I only bring this up because I didn't see the name mentioned in this analysis, but WTH is going on with Murphy? Seemed like a pretty highly regarded recruit and now he's on a path for a practice player and a Duke degree.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

Because Paul Hewitt destroyed the program and we need guaranteed wins since we're playing 4 true freshman and a sophomore transfer. We usually don't schedule this way and I doubt Gregory keeps doing it long term.

I feel the same with Turgeon. One thing that hurts MD's SOS is that the BB&T Classic has gone to crap in recent years by not being able to attract big schools and I wouldn't be suprised to see Maryland bail on it. For those that don't know, it used to be a 4 team, 2 day tournament in DC. It would always have MD and one of the local schools (GW and more recently George Mason), plus two national programs (Mich St, ND, etc..). Each team would get 2 games. So Maryland would always get at least one good game and often two. Now it's a one day event and the quality of the participants has gone way downhill. I'm not sure what Maryland's contract status is with the BB&T, but I know Turgeon hinted he wanted out to schedule other (presumably bigger) schools.Also, Maryland's draw (Northwestern) in the B10/ACC matchup wasn't good because of where they finished last year.

eta: the BB&T is now just a one day event

 

[Worm]

Let's do this!

Maryland got through at 12-1, but didn't beat anyone any good. They open ACC play vs VT Saturday. I think they're going to be good, with a chance at being really good, but we'll see....

Wow... SOS 269... you weren't kidding.They better win a lot of conference games, because I don't think the conference RPI's are going to help them too much in that regard.

Anyone who plays Duke twice is going to get a big bump in the RPI even if they lose. Duke is so far out ahead (.7462 to Michigan at .6900...I don't ever remember seeing a difference so great), that it will prop a few teams up.Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

At least Duke, Miami, State, and UNC are tourney teams if they finish 8-8 or better. MD probably is. Everyone else probably needs 9-7 or better (UVa may need 10-6 since they only play Duke, State and Miami 3 times total) . Clemson and Wake...thanks for playing.

It's going to be a weird year for guessing tourney berths because there are 18 conference games this year. With as bad as the bottom of the league is, I think any bubble teams are going to have to get AT LEAST 10 wins. I don't know that 9-9 will do it.

 

[TLEF316]

Parker is Duke's starting 4 next year. He'll play like Luol Deng did or how they used Melo (who I think Jabari is a dead ringer for at the same stage) for team USA.No chance he's there more than 1 year. He's a different type of kid, but top 5 picks don't come back to school. They just don't.

Agreed, but he'll be the 4 more out of necessity and assuming Hood outplays Amile. But a 3/4 of Hood/Jabari looks pretty nice. If Sheed sticks around with Cook at the 1, that is a pretty daunting starting 5. But I guess Josh is our backup 5?

I only bring this up because I didn't see the name mentioned in this analysis, but WTH is going on with Murphy? Seemed like a pretty highly regarded recruit and now he's on a path for a practice player and a Duke degree.

Murphy apparently was horrible in practice early, which got him in the dog house. He's been better recently, but still isn't playing in close games because k doesn't trust him on defense. It's disappointing for sure. Since he already used his red shirt, I can't see him transferring. Plus, his older brother dealt with similar issues his first few years at Florida and stuck around. He's very talented, just needs the game to slow down a little.

 

[NMYMND]

Parker is Duke's starting 4 next year. He'll play like Luol Deng did or how they used Melo (who I think Jabari is a dead ringer for at the same stage) for team USA.No chance he's there more than 1 year. He's a different type of kid, but top 5 picks don't come back to school. They just don't.

Agreed, but he'll be the 4 more out of necessity and assuming Hood outplays Amile. But a 3/4 of Hood/Jabari looks pretty nice. If Sheed sticks around with Cook at the 1, that is a pretty daunting starting 5. But I guess Josh is our backup 5?

I only bring this up because I didn't see the name mentioned in this analysis, but WTH is going on with Murphy? Seemed like a pretty highly regarded recruit and now he's on a path for a practice player and a Duke degree.

Murphy apparently was horrible in practice early, which got him in the dog house. He's been better recently, but still isn't playing in close games because k doesn't trust him on defense. It's disappointing for sure. Since he already used his red shirt, I can't see him transferring. Plus, his older brother dealt with similar issues his first few years at Florida and stuck around. He's very talented, just needs the game to slow down a little.

Makes sense, and completely agree that he would have difficulty leaving and sitting out another year. One of the Duke guys at work has a theory that playing against Hood in practice has destroyed Murphy's confidence.

 

[The Commish]

Let's do this!

Maryland got through at 12-1, but didn't beat anyone any good. They open ACC play vs VT Saturday. I think they're going to be good, with a chance at being really good, but we'll see....

Wow... SOS 269... you weren't kidding.They better win a lot of conference games, because I don't think the conference RPI's are going to help them too much in that regard.

Anyone who plays Duke twice is going to get a big bump in the RPI even if they lose. Duke is so far out ahead (.7462 to Michigan at .6900...I don't ever remember seeing a difference so great), that it will prop a few teams up.Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

At least Duke, Miami, State, and UNC are tourney teams if they finish 8-8 or better. MD probably is. Everyone else probably needs 9-7 or better (UVa may need 10-6 since they only play Duke, State and Miami 3 times total) . Clemson and Wake...thanks for playing.

Michigan and Duke have polar schedules. Michigan didn't have the OOC schedule that Duke did, but Duke's conference schedule isn't what Michigan's going to have to go through. That's why they are so far apart right now. It will all even out in the end.

 

[Tau837]

Let's do this!

Maryland got through at 12-1, but didn't beat anyone any good. They open ACC play vs VT Saturday. I think they're going to be good, with a chance at being really good, but we'll see....

Wow... SOS 269... you weren't kidding.They better win a lot of conference games, because I don't think the conference RPI's are going to help them too much in that regard.

Anyone who plays Duke twice is going to get a big bump in the RPI even if they lose. Duke is so far out ahead (.7462 to Michigan at .6900...I don't ever remember seeing a difference so great), that it will prop a few teams up.Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

At least Duke, Miami, State, and UNC are tourney teams if they finish 8-8 or better. MD probably is. Everyone else probably needs 9-7 or better (UVa may need 10-6 since they only play Duke, State and Miami 3 times total) . Clemson and Wake...thanks for playing.

other than the references to 16 game conference schedules. Everyone is playing 18 now.State fans are giving Gottfried a lot of credit for how he has changed State's OOC scheduling practices. Using RealTimeRPI info, State enters ACC play at RPI #12, with the #10 SOS. They got there by playing 6 of their 13 OOC games vs. top 70 RPI teams and just one game vs. a team worse than 190 RPI. They had 6 games vs. teams that range between 119 and 190, teams like Cleveland State, Western Michigan, and UNC-Asheville. It doesn't seem like having a strong RPI necessarily requires playing an extremely difficult schedule. It's like everything else that involves a formula... figure out how it works and plan accordingly.

RealTimeRPI is projecting State to go 10-8 in the ACC, going 8-1 at home (loss to Duke) and 1-8 on the road (win at Wake). It projects State to lose 3 of 4 out of the gate. I'm not buying it...

 

[Sammy3469]

Let's do this!

Maryland got through at 12-1, but didn't beat anyone any good. They open ACC play vs VT Saturday. I think they're going to be good, with a chance at being really good, but we'll see....

Wow... SOS 269... you weren't kidding.They better win a lot of conference games, because I don't think the conference RPI's are going to help them too much in that regard.

Anyone who plays Duke twice is going to get a big bump in the RPI even if they lose. Duke is so far out ahead (.7462 to Michigan at .6900...I don't ever remember seeing a difference so great), that it will prop a few teams up.Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

At least Duke, Miami, State, and UNC are tourney teams if they finish 8-8 or better. MD probably is. Everyone else probably needs 9-7 or better (UVa may need 10-6 since they only play Duke, State and Miami 3 times total) . Clemson and Wake...thanks for playing.

It's going to be a weird year for guessing tourney berths because there are 18 conference games this year. With as bad as the bottom of the league is, I think any bubble teams are going to have to get AT LEAST 10 wins. I don't know that 9-9 will do it.

For the top 4 9-9 will (especially since Miami is missing Johnson for awhile). Everyone else probably needs 10-8. UVa may need 11-7 since their ACC schedule is so weak and Ga Tech may need to as well since they only play Duke once. I wouldn't discount how playing Duke is going to help some of these teams too in terms of RPI. I fully expect Duke to lose 2-3 games and if they are to the BC/FSU/UVa,VaTech tier away from home as opposed to the UNC/State/Miami it'll go a long way to getting the bubble teams in. Unsurprisingly, Duke still hasn't played a true away game.

 

[TLEF316]

Parker is Duke's starting 4 next year. He'll play like Luol Deng did or how they used Melo (who I think Jabari is a dead ringer for at the same stage) for team USA.No chance he's there more than 1 year. He's a different type of kid, but top 5 picks don't come back to school. They just don't.

Agreed, but he'll be the 4 more out of necessity and assuming Hood outplays Amile. But a 3/4 of Hood/Jabari looks pretty nice. If Sheed sticks around with Cook at the 1, that is a pretty daunting starting 5. But I guess Josh is our backup 5?

I only bring this up because I didn't see the name mentioned in this analysis, but WTH is going on with Murphy? Seemed like a pretty highly regarded recruit and now he's on a path for a practice player and a Duke degree.

Murphy apparently was horrible in practice early, which got him in the dog house. He's been better recently, but still isn't playing in close games because k doesn't trust him on defense. It's disappointing for sure. Since he already used his red shirt, I can't see him transferring. Plus, his older brother dealt with similar issues his first few years at Florida and stuck around. He's very talented, just needs the game to slow down a little.

Makes sense, and completely agree that he would have difficulty leaving and sitting out another year. One of the Duke guys at work has a theory that playing against Hood in practice has destroyed Murphy's confidence.

also, if he transfers, he can't sit out as a red shirt. He'd lose a year of eligibility. The hood theory isn't terrible, but I don't agree. When he has played recently, I haven't seen someone who lacks confidence. I see a guy who just doesn't quite get it yet.

 

[Worm]

Let's do this!

Maryland got through at 12-1, but didn't beat anyone any good. They open ACC play vs VT Saturday. I think they're going to be good, with a chance at being really good, but we'll see....

Wow... SOS 269... you weren't kidding.They better win a lot of conference games, because I don't think the conference RPI's are going to help them too much in that regard.

Anyone who plays Duke twice is going to get a big bump in the RPI even if they lose. Duke is so far out ahead (.7462 to Michigan at .6900...I don't ever remember seeing a difference so great), that it will prop a few teams up.Having said that, I don't get why Ga Tech, Uva, and MD scheduled such absolute creampuffs. You want to know why the ACC doesn't get more bids...there you go. Ga Tech has played 4 teams below 300...thanks guys.

At least Duke, Miami, State, and UNC are tourney teams if they finish 8-8 or better. MD probably is. Everyone else probably needs 9-7 or better (UVa may need 10-6 since they only play Duke, State and Miami 3 times total) . Clemson and Wake...thanks for playing.

other than the references to 16 game conference schedules. Everyone is playing 18 now.State fans are giving Gottfried a lot of credit for how he has changed State's OOC scheduling practices. Using RealTimeRPI info, State enters ACC play at RPI #12, with the #10 SOS. They got there by playing 6 of their 13 OOC games vs. top 70 RPI teams and just one game vs. a team worse than 190 RPI. They had 6 games vs. teams that range between 119 and 190, teams like Cleveland State, Western Michigan, and UNC-Asheville. It doesn't seem like having a strong RPI necessarily requires playing an extremely difficult schedule. It's like everything else that involves a formula... figure out how it works and plan accordingly.

RealTimeRPI is projecting State to go 10-8 in the ACC, going 8-1 at home (loss to Duke) and 1-8 on the road (win at Wake). It projects State to lose 3 of 4 out of the gate. I'm not buying it...

I guessed 11-7 for State prior to the season, and I still think that's about right. Losses: Duke, @MD, @UVa, @Duke, @Clem, @UNC, @FSU. Wouldn't be surprised if State loses some other random home game and wins one of those away games.

 

[TLEF316]

On second thought, I don't buy the "hood destroying Murphy's confidence" theory at all. They're both playing with the scout team in practice so they probably aren't even matched up against each other.

 

[Sammy3469]

other than the references to 16 game conference schedules. Everyone is playing 18 now.

State fans are giving Gottfried a lot of credit for how he has changed State's OOC scheduling practices. Using RealTimeRPI info, State enters ACC play at RPI #12, with the #10 SOS. They got there by playing 6 of their 13 OOC games vs. top 70 RPI teams and just one game vs. a team worse than 190 RPI. They had 6 games vs. teams that range between 119 and 190, teams like Cleveland State, Western Michigan, and UNC-Asheville. It doesn't seem like having a strong RPI necessarily requires playing an extremely difficult schedule. It's like everything else that involves a formula... figure out how it works and plan accordingly.

RealTimeRPI is projecting State to go 10-8 in the ACC, going 8-1 at home (loss to Duke) and 1-8 on the road (win at Wake). It projects State to lose 3 of 4 out of the gate. I'm not buying it...

I should have known that, but honestly besides for Duke I don't follow the conference as closely anymore (though I am really looking forward to ND/Cuse/Pitt/L-ville additions...probably sacrilegious to say in this thread).Just to put this in to some context, RPIforecast has UVA going 11-7 and MD going 10-8. UVa they project at 56 and MD at 57. So they would be squarely on the bubble. For some comparison, they have FSU at 7-9 with an 80th ranked RPI. This is of course flawed since the MWC has 6 of their 9 teams currently with sub 40 RPIs and projects 5 of those 9 to be 30 and below.

 

[simey]

KenPom forecasts the conference regular season champs using data through the 12/31 games and running 10000 simulations of the conference schedules.

Here's how the ACC played out. The number next to each team is how many times they had the most conference wins in a simulation. Unlisted teams had zero simulated conference titles. Note this is not necessarily a predicted order of finish in the conference. Divide each number by 100 to get the team's percentage chance of having the most wins in 2013 ACC play.

ACC

Duke 8797

Virginia 476

North Carolina St. 235

Miami FL 226

North Carolina 143

Maryland 59

Georgia Tech 43

Florida St. 14

Clemson 8

KenPom: "This exercise gives you some insight into schedule difficulty in conferences that no longer play double round-robins (which is almost all of them). I don't doubt I have UVa overrated, but they only have to play Duke, N.C. State, and Miami once each while UNC's single-game opponents are the four-lowest rated teams in the conference: Clemson, Va. Tech, Boston College, and Wake Forest. That kind of stuff matters."

"‏@kenpomeroy UNC has the most-difficult ACC schedule possible. Plays each of the top 7 teams twice. Bottom four once." Not a good year for that to happen. Also suspect that if he could adjust for Miami based on injuries, would see them slip.

How long is Reggie Johnson out for?

 

[TLEF316]

I think 6 weeks

 

[The Commish]

So is there not a significant concern for Duke and their ability to rebound. Was at that game last night and if Davidson can do what they did, what about bigger, talented teams? Plumlee was virtually non-existent. I think there are several teams in the country that could beat Duke in a 5 or 7 game series.

 

[Sammy3469]

So is there not a significant concern for Duke and their ability to rebound. Was at that game last night and if Davidson can do what they did, what about bigger, talented teams? Plumlee was virtually non-existent. I think there are several teams in the country that could beat Duke in a 5 or 7 game series.

YesIn all seriousness, I think they're hoping Marshall develops more and gives them the Hairston minutes. Having said that, their def effeciency actually went up last night, and they did rebound 69.2% of Davidson's misses which is right inline with a 71% average (that's the NBA's average so colleges may be slightly different). They held Davidson to 30% shooting, so they were doing something correctly. They were pretty dominant in the 2nd half.Oh and thanks for playing FSU.

 

[The Commish]

So is there not a significant concern for Duke and their ability to rebound. Was at that game last night and if Davidson can do what they did, what about bigger, talented teams? Plumlee was virtually non-existent. I think there are several teams in the country that could beat Duke in a 5 or 7 game series.

YesIn all seriousness, I think they're hoping Marshall develops more and gives them the Hairston minutes. Having said that, their def effeciency actually went up last night, and they did rebound 69.2% of Davidson's misses which is right inline with a 71% average (that's the NBA's average so colleges may be slightly different). They held Davidson to 30% shooting, so they were doing something correctly. They were pretty dominant in the 2nd half.

Oh and thanks for playing FSU.

Don't know what the bold means, but you're welcome??I haven't watched a ton of Duke this year, but their defense looked like their typical defense, but the rebounding was terrible. I still maintain that Kelly is one of the softest big men there is. Against a team like Davidson, he should be putting up 20 and 10 without breaking a sweat...especially against a guy that's 5-5 inches shorter than him. Plumlee's improved. There's no question about that, but he can't disappear like that in any of their games IMO. He seemed lost.

 

[Sammy3469]

Don't know what the bold means, but you're welcome??

They lost to a pretty terrible Auburn team last night.

 

[The Commish]

Don't know what the bold means, but you're welcome??

They lost to a pretty terrible Auburn team last night.

Oh...you were thanking FSU for playing...not me

 

[TLEF316]

Duke's poor rebounding is a big concern for me. What's even more frustrating is that two guys that could help (Murphy and Jefferson) are buried at the moment. Marshall Plumlee could also help, but him playing means Mason is sitting, so you can't complain too much about that.

Davidson confused Mason with some unique looks last night. Most teams that double team a post player have the primary defender play the low (base line side) shoulder while the double team comes from the middle. This allows for quicker rotations. However, Davidson was bringing their second defender from the baseline side. It made it much harder for Mason to see them coming. With his primary defender giving him the baseline, Mason kept trying to drop step.(which obviously didn't work because the 2nd defender was there.

Now that he's seen that look, I'm confident he'll make the necessary adjustments if someone tries it again.

Not sure how anyone could trash Kelly after last night. He had 18 and 7 and only took 8 shots. He's soft by nature but he plays his role very well and is a great positional defender.

Terrible offensive performance for duke last night but they won by 17 against a good team despite their 2 best players playing their worst games of the year. Not too shabby Imo

 

[Worm]

Cook has really made strides from last year. Totally did not see that coming.

 

[TLEF316]

Cook has really made strides from last year. Totally did not see that coming.

It surprises me that people are surprised by this. He was a top recruit and a McDonald's all American who led 3 major programs to a lot of success (dematha, oak Hill, dc assault). He also started over marques Teague for team USA at the world championships. He messed up his knee at the elite 24 before his senior year and played through it. It never healed correctly which destroyed his mobility and confidence. With the full year to heal, a summer to develop and the usual sophomore bump, this isn't THAT surprising. It's not like he's elite. He's just very good.

 

[Worm]

Pretty simple... it is surprising to me that a guy who looked like crap a year ago and didn't contribute much looks pretty darn good this year.

 

[TLEF316]

Pretty simple... it is surprising to me that a guy who looked like crap a year ago and didn't contribute much looks pretty darn good this year.

Well yeah, I'm just saying there was a reason he looked like Crap. The kid wasn't healthy and spent a year at oak Hill developing bad habits trying to compensate. Steve Smith at oak Hill is obviously a well respected coach, but he did wrong by cook. He shouldn't have been playing

 

[tdoss]

I didn't get to check out the last game but I'm always concerned about Duke's rebounding...or lack thereof...

I think it's on purpose...they sacrifice rebounding position for constant pressure defensively. At least that's what I tell myself...I wished their rebounding was better.

I am definitely surprised by Cook. He's become one of my favorite players on the team...I love high tenacity and fight.

 

[oso diablo]

A good and thorough preview of Duke's team this year. I agree with every thing Al wrote Al Featherston – Is Duke Underrated?[snip]It’s almost upon us … and it’s reasonable to wonder what we can expect from the 2012-13 Blue Devils?OPTIMISM OR REALISM?As most of you know, I attended Duke from 1967-73 (it took me almost six years to get my degree). In over 30 years with the Durham Sun and the Durham Herald-Sun, Duke was often my primary assignment. And since I was laid off by the Herald-Sun in 2005, the great majority of my writing has been for Duke outlets – goDuke.com; goDuke – The Magazine; and, of course, DBR.Because of my close association to Duke, I’ve always tried especially hard to be objective when I write about the ACC. Many of my colleagues in the North Carolina media attended the journalism school at UNC and they have the same challenge. I’ve always respected those (the great majority, I believe) who do a good job of maintaining their objectivity while distaining those few who allow their collegiate allegiance to taint their work.I mention this to explain why I am so reluctant to voice my real opinion about the coming season. I don’t want to sound like a homer. But I can’t escape the fact that I believe that Duke is being badly underrated headed into the 2012-13 season.I believe that Duke has – on paper — the best team in the ACC and is as strong a championship contender as there is nationally – not the favorite, but at least as good as Indiana, Louisville or any of the other candidates being offered a preseason No. 1 teams.I know that’s not the popular opinion. N.C. State appears to be the consensus choice to win the ACC. I have no doubt the Pack will be picked No. 1 Wednesday when the ACC media meets in Charlotte for ACC Operation Basketball.Most preseason polls I’ve seen rank N.C. State as the strongest ACC team – and the Pack is almost a unanimous pick to start the season in the top 10. ESPN currently projects N.C. State at No. 6, North Carolina at No. 13 and Duke No. 15.Frankly, that’s just bizarre – not so much the high ranking for N.C. State, but the low ranking for Duke … and the higher ranking by a UNC team that was decimated by early entry into the NCAA. To be fair, there are media outlets that disagree. Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated rates Duke No. 8 in his preseason power rankings – ahead of No. 12 North Carolina, but behind No. 3 N.C. State. The Sporting News has Duke at No. 6 – ahead of both No. 9 N.C. State and No. 13 UNC.But even though Duke is sometimes included as a top 10 team – after all the Blue Devils have an active streak of 93 straight weeks in the AP top 10 and Duke has finished in the AP top 10 in 15 of the last 16 years – nobody is talking about the Blue Devils as a national championship contender. Usually, Indiana and Louisville lead the debate, but I’ve seen advocates for Kentucky, Ohio State, UCLA, Syracuse and even Kansas.None for Duke. Although a team like Duke can never truly be “under the radar” I do think the Blue Devils are being about as underrated as it’s possible for them to be.Of course, before anybody gets too upset about that, it would be well to remember Coach K’s response to an “under-the-radar” question Friday:“I would rather be praised for what we have done and not for expectations of what people think we are going to do.”Fair enough – although it would be a shame if the low expectations of so many people would cost Duke a place in the AP’s preseason top 10. If the Blue Devils stumble early against its killer preseason slate – Kentucky, Ohio State and probably Memphis and Louisville all before Christmas – then by all means drop the Devils in the rankings. But I would hate to see that streak of 93-straight top 10 appearances (the second-longest such streak in history) snapped because voters underestimated Duke’s potential.I think there is a perfect storm of circumstances that have caused normally astute observers to underrate the Blue Devils.(1) The Lehigh game.Make no mistake, the media gives a lot of credence each year to how a team finishes, especially when that team returns the bulk of its roster.And Duke has no excuse for the Lehigh debacle – not even the absence of Ryan Kelly with an injury. That’s what people remember about Duke’s 2012 team … just as they remember that the 2012 N.C. State Wolfpack reached the Sweet 16 and took NCAA runnerup Kansas to the wire before losing.That performance – along with the four returning starters – is the reason that N.C. State is showing up so high in so many preseason projections.But the Wolfpack coach said something very interesting last Monday when he met with the media.“I go around town and have people say to me a lot: ‘Coach, what a great year last year.’” Gottfried said. “Well, the truth of the matter is that it really wasn’t a great year – it was a great finish. But our year wasn’t great. We were just okay. So we have to be a lot better this year.”Indeed, N.C. State was a borderline NCAA team in 2012. The Pack was 22-12 on Selection Sunday and only slipped into the field by compiling a four-game winning streak that started the last day of February. Gottfried said that a friend on the Selection Committee later told him that N.C. State only moved onto the board after beating Virginia in the ACC Tournament semifinals.If that’s true, it was a very near thing – the Pack struggled to a 67-64 victory over a crippled Virginia team (one that ended its season by losing four of its last five games).But given the chance in the NCAA playoffs, the Pack caught fire, beating a higher seeded San Diego State in the second round, upsetting No. 15 Georgetown in the third round and barely losing to No. 6 Kansas in the Sweet 16.That’s what everybody remembers about State – not that they were 0-7 against ranked teams before that Georgetown win.Duke is almost the exact opposite scenario. The Blue Devils enjoyed a tremendous regular season, but flamed out in postseason.Duke was 27-6 on Selection Sunday. That record was compiled against the nation’s second-toughest schedule and included wins (all away from home) over Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, Washington and Florida State. The Blue Devils were ranked No. 3 in the nation when they played North Carolina in Cameron on March 3 – and were almost certainly competing that night for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.The Devils lost that game, starting a spiral that ended the season with three losses in four games. Part of it was the Kelly injury, of course, but extended shooting slumps by Curry and (especially) Andre Dawkins didn’t help. The Duke team that lost to Lehigh was in sad shape.But the question is should we now be evaluating Duke based on that dismal finish or the spectacular regular season?Duke, like State, returns four starters off its 2012 team, and adds a strong freshman class (more on that later). Both teams lost three players out of its 2012 rotation – one starter, its top frontcourt reserve and a top backcourt reserve.Based on the season-long comparisons of the two teams, there’s no question that Duke was better in 2012 – and should be ranked higher going into this season. But the majority of the media sees how much stronger N.C. State finished in 2012 and consequently ranks the Pack higher going into this season.That’s not an indefensible position. I think N.C. State will be good – a better season-long team than in 2012.I would just argue that I’d rather base my evaluation on a large sample size than a small one. We’ve seen teams bounce back from horrible NCAA exits before and do well. Duke did that in 2010 (after a wipeout against Villanova in 2009). The players on the 1986 team were 1-2 in NCAA play before they made their run to the title game. In 2005 and 2006, Kansas was knocked out of the NCAA first round under Bill Self – they bounced back to reach the Elite 8 in 2007 and win the national title in 2008. UNC made a second-round exit in 2004 and won it all in 2005. Jim Calhoun’s 2010 UConn team flamed out in the second round of the NIT … his 2011 team won the NCAA title.The Lehigh loss should not define this year’s team.(2) Freshman rankings.N.C. State’s three-man freshman class was ranked No. 10 in the nation by ESPN, while Duke’s two-man class was ranked No. 12.Advantage N.C. State, right?Well, maybe not. Because there’s a hidden factor that many experts seem to be overlooking – Duke is actually adding FOUR freshmen in 2012-13, not two. Two 2011 recruits redshirted last year, but will join 2012 newcomers Rasheed Sulaimon and Amile Jefferson on the roster – and probably in the rotation.Where would Duke’s class rank if the Blue Devils were credited with Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee?Three of Duke’s four freshmen were McDonald’s All-Americas and Murphy almost certainly would have been had he not skipped his senior year in high school. He was rated a top 10-15 recruit in the Class of 2012 until he reclassified as Class of 2011.That move seems to have removed him from the consciousness of the people who rank college basketball teams. Yet, the 6-8 Murphy is on my opinion, one of the most important new players in the ACC, if not all of college basketball. He should provide Duke with the length on the perimeter that the Blue Devils lacked a year ago.“A couple of times last year I wanted to get him off the redshirt because we were missing that element on our team,” Krzyzewski said. “I think Alex has a chance to be an outstanding player. When you see him in person, you’ll see that he’s over 220 … he looks like Kyle [singler]. He can do some of those things [that Singler did] for us.“Playing for the Under 20 team for Finland last summer – he was the leading scorer, rebounder, assist guy. He got to play for a month in really good competition. I think his confidence is sky high.”Murphy said he’s a better player after redshirting last season than he would have been had he stayed in high school and come to Duke as a celebrated prep All-American.“I sometimes think about what would have happened if I had stayed in high school, but I think that coming down here early and going through redshirt year was by far the best thing I could have done for myself,” Murphy said. “Not even close.”It’s also possible that Sulaimon is being underrated. I read and hear a lot about the impact that Rodney Purvis will make at N.C. State or Marcus Paige at UNC or Shaquille Clear at Maryland … but Sulaimon is the highest rated (by the RSCI, which averages recruiting rankings) freshman in the ACC this season. And Amile Jefferson (No. 21) is the third highest rated (Purvis comes in at No. 17).I think it’s not unreasonable to argue that – in adding its two redshirt freshmen to its two returning freshmen) Duke has the BEST freshman class in the ACC this season.(3) The Quinn Cook factor.I’ve written before about how for nearly the last decade – at least since the graduation of Chris Duhon in 2004 – Coach Krzyzewski has had to find a way to win without a natural point guard (with the exception of the eight games before Kyrie Irving was hurt in 2010-11). He’s made do with a lot of combo guards: from Sean Dockery to Daniel Ewing to Greg Paulus to Nolan Smith to Jon Scheyer to Smith again to Seth Curry and, finally, to Tyler Thornton.Don’t get me wrong – that lists includes some exceptional basketball players. Scheyer was good enough to lead Duke to the national title. Smith was an ACC player of the year. Currently, Curry and Thornton are valuable members of the 2012-13 Blue Devils.But they aren’t point guards.Quinn Cook is.There was a time – not so long ago – when Cook was regarded as the finest point guard in his class and one of the best pure playmakers in recent years. In the spring of 2010 (while Duke was celebrating its national title), Cook was one of the most acclaimed players in high school basketball after leading DeMatha to a 32-4 record and its second straight DC city championship.Following that spectacular season, Cook was named the Washington Post’s All-Met player of the year, beating out among others senior point guard Kendall Marshall of Bishop O’Connell in Arlington, Va.That summer, Cook started at point guard for the U.S. Under 17 team that went 8-0 to win the World Championship in Hamburg, Germany. He averaged 7.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and passed out a tournament-high 7.4 assists a game.More significantly, he started at point ahead of Marquis Teague and Tony Wroten.I bring that up because it means that in the summer of 2010, you could make the case that Cook was a better – and certainly more celebrated – high school point guard than three point guards who were selected in the first round of the 2012 NBA draft – Marshall, Teague and Wroten.But that was all before Cook suffered a knee injury in the fall before his senior season at Oak Hill Academy. Cook returned quickly from surgery and played that season. He was still a good player (averaging 21 points and 10.9 assists), but clearly he was not the dominant playmaker he had been before the injury. When he got to Duke in the summer of 2011, the Blue Devil staff thought it best to shut him down.Cook went more than four months without playing before he joined the team for preseason practice a year ago. His surgically repaired knee was better, but the long layoff impacted his game – and his confidence.“The hardest part of coming back from an injury is getting there mentally,” Cook said. “I just battled with pains here and there, then I stopped believing in myself because I wasn’t playing. I was not feeling motivated to practice because I wasn’t confident in myself. I wasn’t in the best shape. My teammates never believed in me because they never played with me until the first day of practice.”Cook had a few bright moments, but he averaged less than 12 minutes a game. Coach K said the young guard struggled to pick up Duke’s defense and his outside shot – normally a strength in Cook’s game – was dreadful (just 25.0 percent from 3-point range). He did, however, demonstrate his playmaking skills – his ratio of 63 assists to just 18 turnovers was the best on the Duke team.“Just coming from high school to Duke basketball, this is a whole different level and you need months to prepare,” Cook said. “By missing my whole spring and summer and not preparing was definitely a setback. That’s what’s motivated me this summer and last spring.”Cook, who has spent the summer working with his close friend Nolan Smith, provided a tantalizing taste of what he may offer this season when he played in the Four Nation’s Cup. He averaged 22.0 points in the three-game event and shot 51.1 percent from the field.“Coach [Guy] Ramcourt told me that it was my team and he wanted me to control everything,” Cook said. “He basically had a lot of trust in me. All in all, it did a lot for my confidence.”“This summer was reassuring for me,” he said. “Both the Nation’s Cup and the Pro Am … playing basketball again … working on my game during those games … I performed well. I needed that, just for confidence. I know it’s not the ACC, but I feel good where I am. I feel good about what I can contribute to the team.”In a very real sense, Cook is the wild card for this Duke team. If he regains the form that made his game so admired in 2010, Duke will have discovered a very important weapon. Coach K will have a true point guard to gameplan around for the first time in years.It’s not so farfetched – most preseason projections expect a lot from UNC sophomore James Michael McAdoo, who averaged a modest 6.1 points and 3.9 rebounds as a freshman. There were reasons McAdoo didn’t make more of an impact (basically, he was playing behind two veterans in the post who were first-round NBA draft picks lasts pring). But there is a reason Cook didn’t do more as a freshman (his injury/layoff).Both sophs have a great deal of potential. I just don’t understand why so many outlets seem to recognize McAdoo’s potential, while I rarely see Cook mentioned in Duke projections.(4) The senior factor.It’s very simple. Duke returns three senior starters who each averaged double figures for the 2012 Blue Devils. Just one other ACC team can say that (Miami) and not many nationally.“I think older, really good players are the best thing a coach can have,” Krzyzewski said. “You always want the young, great players, but the seniors are outstanding and they have game experience and they are 22, 23-years old – which our guys are – it gives a different dimension to your team. In 2010 we were like that.”Duke opponents ought to get nervous when Coach K starts linking this year’s team to 2010 – Duke’s most recent national championship.But outside observers didn’t give that team a lot of respect either – it started the year No. 9 in the first AP poll, behind No. 6 UNC (which would play in the NIT). The ACC media made Duke and UNC co-favorites that year, even though Duke returned four starters off the ACC championship team and UNC returned just one starter off the regular season champs.Hmmm, does that sound familiar?Both Mason Plumlee (tied with N.C. State’s Richard Howell as the ACC’s top returning rebounder) and Seth Curry made third-team All-ACC last season. Ryan Kelly didn’t make the ACC postseason list, but certainly demonstrated his value by his absence in postseason.There’s also reason to think one or more of the Duke seniors could emerge this season as a true superstar. That’s happened remarkably often in recent years under Coach K. Chris Carrawell was one example – he was third-team All-ACC as a junior and became unanimous All-ACC and ACC player of the year as a senior. Neither DeMarcus Nelson nor Jon Scheyer made even third team in their first three seasons before emerging as first-team picks as seniors. Even Nolan Smith blew up late in his career – after a disappointing sophomore year, he was second-team All-ACC as a junior and ACC player of the year as a senior.Of course, that doesn’t count the most amazing late-bloomer of recent times – Brian Zoubek.If there’s a candidate to make a similar jump this season, it would appear to be Mason Plumlee.The 6-10, 235-pounder surprised many when he elected to return to Duke for his senior season instead of opting for a probable spot late in the first round of the 2012 NBA draft. He was a very good player as a junior – 11.1 points a game, along with 9.2 rebounds and a 57.2 percent average from the field.There were critics who suggested that Plumlee should have done more, especially offensively. He was limited by his shooting range and his poor free throw percentage (his final average of 52.8 actually reflected a big improvement late in the season).Plumlee believes that he will be much more of an offensive force this season.“The biggest thing is consistency,” he said. “I think I’ve shown flashes over the course of my career, but being reliable every game, so that Coach and my teammates know what they’re going to get. I should shoot the ball better this season. I really worked on that in the offseason. I also feel that if I get the ball in the block, I should score or get fouled every time.”Critics have charged that Duke doesn’t do enough to take advantage of Plumlee’s skills. Whether true or not, it appears that Krzyzewski is planning to make Plumlee the centerpiece of this year’s team.“You’ll see,” the Duke coach said. “I think he is as good a player as there is in the country. He’s almost 7-feet tall and his shooting, handling … he wants to score inside. I really like where he’s at.“If we do something special this year, the big thing will be because of him. I don’t think that puts pressure on him – he wants it. He’s been very good, but it’s his time to be the key guy. Ryan and Seth are also key guys, but Mason is THE key guy. It’s exciting.”Krzyzewski said that over the summer, he’s formed a special bomb with the second of the three Plumlee brothers.“In the time I’ve been coaching, I’ve been lucky to have so many good players,” he said. “The great ones are the ones who grab you and say, ‘Let’s do this together.’ We form a bond with those players.“I feel like [Mason and I] have that since last spring. We had a good relationship. But there’s a big difference between having a good relationship … a strong relationship and a bond.” ***I realize that what I’ve offered sounds like a partisan evaluation of this Duke team. That’s why I’ve been so reluctant to offer it. But it’s what I believe and for more than 40 years, I’ve tried to separate my emotions from my judgment and I THINK I’m doing it in this case.Obviously, Duke has question marks. Will Cook really emerge as a first-class point guard? Will Mason blossom into stardom? How much will the four newcomers help?But every team has question marks. Is NC State as good as the team that played in March or only incrementally better than the team that barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament? How many of UNC’s supposedly talented backups will step into starring roles (remember how well that worked in 2010, when Williams last had to replace four starters)? Leonard Hamilton told me over the summer than he expects to have his best team at FSU – is that possible after losing four senior starters and SIX of his top nine players?Wednesday, when the ACC media meets in Charlotte to predict the 2013 season, I suspect they’ll vote: 1. N.C. State; 2. Duke, 3. UNC; 4. Florida State and 5. Miami … although I wouldn’t be shocked if UNC ends up ahead of the Blue Devils.No problem, it’s just a preseason poll and it doesn’t mean anything. The season will be shaped by injuries and developing players and teams that find chemistry and those that don’t.My opinions are no more valid that anybody else’s. But my 40-plus years of covering ACC basketball suggests to me that Duke is being undervalued going into the season.This group of Blue Devils have a chance to be a very special team.

this column from Al Featherston back in October is worth a bump

 

[Worm]

I like State's chances in a 1-game situation vs. Duke, and can't wait for the game next week.

But Duke is built better for the ACC grind, and will probably end up in 1st during the regular season.

 

[sporthenry]

Pretty simple... it is surprising to me that a guy who looked like crap a year ago and didn't contribute much looks pretty darn good this year.

Yeah, this was always one of the biggest contention between Duke supporters and Duke doubters. If you believed in Duke before the year, you no doubt thought Cook would develop into an ACC caliber PG. Now I have even been surprised by his play to this level into an All-ACC caliber player but I did suspect he'd be good perhaps just not this good.

 

[sporthenry]

I like State's chances in a 1-game situation vs. Duke, and can't wait for the game next week. But Duke is built better for the ACC grind, and will probably end up in 1st during the regular season.

I would agree although I'm kinda happy it is earlier in the year. I haven't watched too much of NC State recently but from what I can tell, they are getting their act more together after the beat down from OK State. But I think they'll be more dangerous as the season wears on. Now Duke will probably walk into this game relatively untested in the last few weeks. They do get 2 conference games which should let them get their feet wet in conference against Clemson and Wake Forest but I don't think they'll be tested too much. And apart from getting pushed a bit by Davidson and even Santa Clara at times, I think Duke might come in a bit rusty.

 

[oso diablo]

I still maintain that Kelly is one of the softest big men there is. Against a team like Davidson, he should be putting up 20 and 10 without breaking a sweat...especially against a guy that's 5-5 inches shorter than him.

4th in the ACC in blocks

 

[sporthenry]

I still maintain that Kelly is one of the softest big men there is. Against a team like Davidson, he should be putting up 20 and 10 without breaking a sweat...especially against a guy that's 5-5 inches shorter than him.

4th in the ACC in blocks

He is an underrated defender in terms of blocks but most of those are from the weak side but straight up, he isn't the greatest defender. That said, his game also doesn't necessarily translate to being better against weaker teams. He is more someone who uses his ability on the perimeter and dribbling skills to take advantage of less athletic 4's. But this isn't very different from other stretch 4's like Rashard Lewis or Ryan Anderson. Heck, even Dirk, one of the best isn't a great post up. So I'm not sure the reason for the criticism. Kelly is probably best suited for a career in Europe but he seems like a poor man's Ryan Anderson who doesn't shoot it as well nor rebound as well but probably has a better overall offensive game.

 

[The Commish]

I still maintain that Kelly is one of the softest big men there is. Against a team like Davidson, he should be putting up 20 and 10 without breaking a sweat...especially against a guy that's 5-5 inches shorter than him.

4th in the ACC in blocks

He is an underrated defender in terms of blocks but most of those are from the weak side but straight up, he isn't the greatest defender. That said, his game also doesn't necessarily translate to being better against weaker teams. He is more someone who uses his ability on the perimeter and dribbling skills to take advantage of less athletic 4's. But this isn't very different from other stretch 4's like Rashard Lewis or Ryan Anderson. Heck, even Dirk, one of the best isn't a great post up. So I'm not sure the reason for the criticism. Kelly is probably best suited for a career in Europe but he seems like a poor man's Ryan Anderson who doesn't shoot it as well nor rebound as well but probably has a better overall offensive game.

FWIW...I'm not dumping on the guy. He's fine for his role at Duke. I actually made the comparison to Anderson with a buddy of mine while at the game last night. It's really an issue I have. I assume all these big guys should be down low grinders and when they aren't I see it as a flaw. That's a personal issue though

 

[TLEF316]

Ryan Kelly is one of those guys that a fan base typically has a love-hate relationship with but REALLY misses when he's gone. We got a little peak at what that looks like when he missed the post-season last year.

Fortunately for Duke fans, Jabari Parker will be sliding right into that spot next year, so he won't be missed all that much.

The versatile forward position should be a big strength for Duke for the next few years. Even after Kelly, Hood and Parker are all gone after next year, Duke should have several years of Jefferson, Murphy and Ojeleye to look forward to.

Looks like I might be taking my first trip down to the triangle in a few weeks. My dad and I are still ironing out the details, but the plan is to hit UNC on Feb 23rd for the game against State and then roll over Durham on Sunday afternoon for their matchup against BC. Pretty excited.

 

[Worm]

I hope that a big part of State's gameplan is to go right at Kelly with whichever big he is guarding. Kelly is the type of guy who seems to go off against State when they play Duke.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Ryan Kelly is one of those guys that a fan base typically has a love-hate relationship with but REALLY misses when he's gone. We got a little peak at what that looks like when he missed the post-season last year.Fortunately for Duke fans, Jabari Parker will be sliding right into that spot next year, so he won't be missed all that much.The versatile forward position should be a big strength for Duke for the next few years. Even after Kelly, Hood and Parker are all gone after next year, Duke should have several years of Jefferson, Murphy and Ojeleye to look forward to. Looks like I might be taking my first trip down to the triangle in a few weeks. My dad and I are still ironing out the details, but the plan is to hit UNC on Feb 23rd for the game against State and then roll over Durham on Sunday afternoon for their matchup against BC. Pretty excited.

Any way you can get down for the ACCT in March? Any of you? Even without tix, we'll get some. Health willing, I'm going and would love to meet some of you guys.As for Duke's rebounding, I haven't watched them a ton, but know they've played damned near every team in the Top 25 - they're not good at it but, as someone posted above, they sell out to play pressure outside.Maryland will out-rebound them by a million and will still probably lose

 

[RCon]

As for Duke's rebounding, I haven't watched them a ton, but know they've played damned near every team in the Top 25 - they're not good at it but, as someone posted above, they sell out to play pressure outside.Maryland will out-rebound them by a million and will still probably lose

If rebounds were points, Maryland might go undefeated this year.

 

[oso diablo]

Looks like I might be taking my first trip down to the triangle in a few weeks. My dad and I are still ironing out the details, but the plan is to hit UNC on Feb 23rd for the game against State and then roll over Durham on Sunday afternoon for their matchup against BC. Pretty excited.

 

[omally]

I like State's chances in a 1-game situation vs. Duke, and can't wait for the game next week. But Duke is built better for the ACC grind, and will probably end up in 1st during the regular season.

I'd like to see State start playing stronger in the first half of games. I feel like their second half effort is always stronger than their first half effort. I think they will need two solid halves to keep up with Duke. I think last year State played Duke once and gave them a good game, but ran out of gas at the end due to their lack of depth. Am I remembering that right?

 

[Sammy3469]

I still maintain that Kelly is one of the softest big men there is. Against a team like Davidson, he should be putting up 20 and 10 without breaking a sweat...especially against a guy that's 5-5 inches shorter than him.

4th in the ACC in blocks

He is an underrated defender in terms of blocks but most of those are from the weak side but straight up, he isn't the greatest defender. That said, his game also doesn't necessarily translate to being better against weaker teams. He is more someone who uses his ability on the perimeter and dribbling skills to take advantage of less athletic 4's. But this isn't very different from other stretch 4's like Rashard Lewis or Ryan Anderson. Heck, even Dirk, one of the best isn't a great post up. So I'm not sure the reason for the criticism. Kelly is probably best suited for a career in Europe but he seems like a poor man's Ryan Anderson who doesn't shoot it as well nor rebound as well but probably has a better overall offensive game.

FWIW...I'm not dumping on the guy. He's fine for his role at Duke. I actually made the comparison to Anderson with a buddy of mine while at the game last night. It's really an issue I have. I assume all these big guys should be down low grinders and when they aren't I see it as a flaw. That's a personal issue though

I don't quite get the Kelly hate. Hes quite possibly the best stretch 4 in college and does exactly what he's suppose to. I think people keep forgetting how good this team has been on offense and defense and a big reason for that is that Kelly stretches the defense and has the size to guard the weaker 4/5 on defense.There's also a reason Duke's season fell apart last year after he hurt his foot.And one more...a guy his height that can hit the corner 3 like he can will stick for someone in the NBA.

 

[Tau837]

I like State's chances in a 1-game situation vs. Duke, and can't wait for the game next week. But Duke is built better for the ACC grind, and will probably end up in 1st during the regular season.

I'd like to see State start playing stronger in the first half of games. I feel like their second half effort is always stronger than their first half effort. I think they will need two solid halves to keep up with Duke. I think last year State played Duke once and gave them a good game, but ran out of gas at the end due to their lack of depth. Am I remembering that right?

IMO the officials robbed State in Last year's game at Duke. I don't remember all the details now, and I don't want to, but there were many posts about it in last year's ACC thread.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

As for Duke's rebounding, I haven't watched them a ton, but know they've played damned near every team in the Top 25 - they're not good at it but, as someone posted above, they sell out to play pressure outside.Maryland will out-rebound them by a million and will still probably lose

If rebounds were points, Maryland might go undefeated this year.

Charles Mitchell has a chance to be their best rebounder since Buck Williams. That kid goes after it. The light bulb appears to be coming on for Shaq Cleare, too. Those are two big, mean young men.

 

[Tau837]

SFN periodically examines likelihood of ACC teams making the NCAA tournament. With ACC play about to begin, they posted a current analysis. Their methodology, which is based on analysis of past seasons, starts with a general rule of thumb as follows:

RPI less than 40 and a conference record of 0.500 or better – IN

RPI greater than 70 – OUT

Everything in between – BUBBLE

It then refines those near the thresholds by adjusting based on SOS and top 50 RPI wins.

As of now, this basic analysis projects just 4 ACC teams to make it: Duke, State, UNC, and Miami, all of which are in the top 30 of the RPI. I was a bit surprised to see Maryland's SOS at this point is just 290, and they have zero top 50 RPI wins. Obviously, all of this will change a lot with conference play, but I thought others might find it interesting.

Link

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I was a bit surprised to see Maryland's SOS at this point is just 290, and they have zero top 50 RPI wins.

I explained a page or two ago the reasons for Maryland's stupid-low SOS. I don't think this will happen again (IMHO) going into conference play under Turgeon. The only top 50 they played was Kentucky because the BB&T now sucks and, since MD was hamstrung last season by Gary leaving so late, they got the honor of playing NW in the ACC/B1G Challenge.It's gonna hurt them come NCAA time if they're on the bubble, true. But I think this is an anomoly, not an every-season-Syracuse/VT thing.Plus, I think they'll play their way through it and won't be a bubble team.

 

[RCon]

Today's the day!

On another note, Wake nabbed a big time recruit for the 2014 class.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Today's the day!

On another note, Wake nabbed a big time recruit for the 2014 class.

I don't know squat about VT other than they have a new coach and Erick Green The Scoring Machine.

 

[RCon]

Today's the day!

On another note, Wake nabbed a big time recruit for the 2014 class.

I don't know squat about VT other than they have a new coach and Erick Green The Scoring Machine.

So far, I know they don't rebound all that well.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Maryland looks fantastic. Surfer Boy Jake Layman is playing the game of his life and the Terps are rebounding like they're possessed. Is Faust in Turgeon's dog house?

 

[RCon]

Maryland looks fantastic. Surfer Boy Jake Layman is playing the game of his life and the Terps are rebounding like they're possessed. Is Faust in Turgeon's dog house?

He's got to be. Oops, injured his shoulder, they said. Even when Wells went out with his third, it was Allen rather than Faust who came in.Pretty strange, as I thought Layman would be the odd man out in ACC play.