Could the Raiders be on the move? Pessimists will take that statement as meaning they will attempt to relocate again to Los Angeles and/or block any move from the Rams or Chargers. Optimists hope that the baby steps this team may have taken in 14 will lead to some stability in the overall roster with on-field team growth. For the first time in forever Oakland does not figure to waste draft picks and free agent signings on a QB. Likewise, after fielding about 18-19 new defensive starters the past two seasons I look for some defensive stability. Veteran coach Jack Del Rio hopes his second coaching gig goes smoothly.
What went right: Derek Carr was not supposed to start but Matt Schaub got hurt. Now Carr has 16 valuable games of experience to build on. To be honest I was shocked that the offensive line allowed the rookie QB to be sacked just 12 times in Oaklands first 11 games (28 for the entire season). Rookie Khalil Mack started slowly but proved by seasons end that he was worthy of a high draft selection. Young RB Latavious Murray did what Darren McFadden could not do; rush for a strong yards-per-carry average. PK Sebastian Janikowski continued to be very reliable.
What went wrong: Carr finished with a stout 21-12 ratio but the yards-per-completion figure was terrible! Teams need to average around 11 yards-per-completion. Carr totaled just 3,270 yards on 348 completions, suggesting the offensive pass attack was in complete learning mode. I noted that the pass protection was good but they did allow 17 sacks the final five games. The rush attack was last in the NFL. In fact, the Raiders had just four rush TDs the entire season! WR play was substandard even with a solid performance from free agent signee James Jones. In this offensive-minded NFL Oakland scored 14 or fewer points in 10-16 games. Oakland led the NFL in three-and-outs. The pass defense % was a too high 63.8%, but that comes with the territory when there are so many changes on defense each and every year, coupled with a few injuries to the defensive backfield. Oakland tallied just 10 defensive interceptions, contributing to an overall turnover ratio of -15. A year after recording 38 sacks (high for them, but below the NFLs quite high 13 average) the Raiders regressed back to just 22 sacks. Amazingly, only once did they record more than two sacks! Oakland did not allow a kick return TD but did allow a whopping 32.5 yards per return. Neither Head Coach Dennis Allen nor interim coach Tony Sparano sparked confidence.
2014 draft recap: Oakland got 54 starts out of its first four selections. Mack started slow but finished strong and finished with 76 tackles and four sacks. Carr had a solid rookie season. OG Gabe Jackson was rated third (by me) at his position. He had a solid debut. DT Justin Ellis was not rated by me but started 14 games with 21 tackles. Lets see what his ceiling really is. CB Keith McGill played late in the year and contributed. CB Travis Carrie had 44 rookie tackles and was effective on punt returns. DE Shelby Harris was active just once. Safety Jonathan Dowling had four tackles. These last two players are nothing special.
ROSTER ANALYSIS AS OF SEPTEMBER 3RD:
QB: David Carr did NOT stretch the field as a rookie but certainly had a decent debut. The back-ups are fine.
RB: Health will be the key, as ranked 6th round pick from 13 Latayius Murray has a solid skill set. Lets hope Oakland picks someone up before the start of the season as a back-up as otherwise this unit would be awful if Murray went down.
WR: Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree immediately assume the top spots. Most everyone else has #3 WR skill at best.
TE: The unit is decent, and three deep. Rookie Clive Walford has the most upside.
OL: Surprisingly, sacks allowed were down most of last year but they did allow 16 in their final five games. The overall unit is a bit below average and their RT is gone for the year.
DL: I like the addition of DT Dan Williams. Rookie Mario Edwards hopes to help the pass rush. Khalil Mack is listed as a DE. Wherever he plays that unit gets a boost.
LB: Curtis Lofton is a solid addition. The rest of the unit is likely to be up and down, with newcomers and youngsters still going through growing pains as well as positional changes.
CB: The top three guys are very young, with not much in the way of starting experience. The new staff is better than the old one, but I would not project an under 60% pass D for 15.
Safety: Charles Woodson keeps plugging along. Nate Allen is the veteran newcomer. Oakland has no developing young talent at this position. In fact, there will be at least four newcomers starting defensively in 15. This has become a nasty habit.
Special Teams: Will the new staff fix the return D? The kicking game is as solid as ever. For now the return game looks poor.
Coaching: Jack Del Rio is an upgrade at Head Coach. Bill Musgrave is decent as the new OC. Ken Norton Jr. is a solid hire as the new DC. Brad Seeley comes over from SF to be the new Special Teams Coordinator.
TEAM KEYS AS OF SEPTEMBER 3RD: Oakland has not finished above .500 since their last Super Bowl appearance after the 02 season. They are 56-136 since then and 11-37 the past three seasons. Once again, getting win #1 for their new staff is critical. Breaking that down, the home record has to improve, while that road record was 0-9 in 14 (counting a London loss) and that needs to change early on. Can they reduce that -15 turnover ratio? What will having a real WR (Cooper) do for their offense? Oakland had just 22 defensive sacks in 14. Im projecting 32 sacks now which remains below the NFL average.
DID THE PRESEASON MEAN ANYTHING? RB Murray is being counted on to carry the load but he has to do better than 17-56-1 (no receptions). No one else even reached these numbers! Watch the run O closely in September. Carr was only about 55% but enjoyed having rookie Cooper to throw to (8-124). Crabtree wont stretch the field (3-21). I do expect the tight ends to contribute, since the rest of the WRs are not at all scary to opposing defenses. The defense was not horrible, but also nothing special. Dan Williams, Khalil Mack, Curtis Lofton and Malcolm Smith all looked decent in the front seven. Even the secondary seems to be stabilizing but the starters are not quite ready to make a noticeable impact and the unit lacks ready to go backups. Unfortunately, the return D is still poor, even in August! There is also a danger that the current return specialists lack talent.
STRATEGY AND BOTTOM LINE ANALYSIS: As usual Oakland has a 4th place schedule. This year there is no Monday game, so Oakland will have stability in scheduling with 15 Sunday games plus the mandatory Thursday game, this time very late in the season. The bye week comes after week five, ideal for a new staff to make changes before it is too late. They open hosting Cincy. This could be interesting. Oakland has one just one opener in the last decade! They stay home to host Baltimore. Both of these teams made the playoffs in 14 but cant the Raiders get an early split? Weeks three and four see them at Cleveland and at Chicago. They are 0-3 at Cleveland but about 50% at Chicago, although the last two meetings were close losses. These two teams were NOT playoff bound, so why cant Oakland be 2-2 at this point. Games 6-7 are at SD (close loss in 14) and home to the Jets (bit better than 50%). Game #9 is hosting Minny, a team that they have fared well against but the Vikings are improved. The goal would be 4-3 from these games but is 3-4 more likely? They are going to need to steal another road win before December to be somewhat viable. Beating Detroit at their place wont be easy, although the Lions have a poor record in games after playing rival GB. Beating Tennessee on the road is more viable, but Oakland lost to the Titans at home in 14 and is 1-7 at their place in more recent action. Four of their final five games are vs. Divisional rivals, with the game in the middle a host of GB and Aaron Rodgers. BOTTOM LINE: WR Cooper is a real asset, and Jack Del Rio is an improvement. Its still important for Oakland to win early, get that 1st road win, and reduce that -15 turnover ratio. I still think well see a negative sack ratio. I like how this team is being built (finally) yet I had trouble finding even five wins in my initial game looks. Somehow I think they find five wins, but I was hoping for more based on roster and staff improvements. I dont know if RB Murray holds up all season long, and I need to see if sacks can go up from 22 to my proposed # of 32. KEY GAMES: The 1st two games. 2-0 would be special. 0-2 would be awful. The Black Hole needs to deliver. Handicapping Tip: Theres not much to crow about when looking at long term statistical trends. Oakland is 3-13 ATS after playing San Diego, and Id be careful to back them in their next game 11/1 hosting the Jets if they were installed as a home favorite.
TENTATIVE POWER SET: 22