2016 Oakland Raiders thread (1 Viewer)

[kaso]

That's why I posed the question. If a consensus top 5 player falls to 14, you take him. Unless your doctor says otherwise. But that's the big question isn't it? 

I think if a consensus top 5 player falls to 14, then he may not be a consensus top 5 player...

I don't recall who was speaking on NFL Radio the other day, but they gave some insight to how teams deal with players coming out of college deal with question marks (behavior, injury, substance abuse, etc.).   The explanation was that the player will be ranked on their abilities ignoring the question marks, but have their name flipped upside down on their big board.  And as the draft progresses, the team has the ability to see where the player, with questions marks, ranks on skill set and abilities against the pool of remaining players.    They also commented that each team (Owner, GM, HC, scouts) will have their own bias on how they perceive that question mark, which is even more difficult to manage.

Some items are simply deal breakers for a team, regardless of the abilities of the questionable player vs the next best available. 

Specifically to the question asked.  Reggie has shown that he is willing to look past injury risk to draft what he sees as the best player available (Hayden), and the Raiders have shown that they will walk away from players with injury concern (Safford).   Hard to say where either Jack or Jaylon fall on that list.  I'm sure it's in the details and opinions of the doctors as already mentioned.    For me, it's not whether the player is worth the spot or not, it's how he stacks up (with his risks) against the next BPA.

 

[massraider]

I think if a consensus top 5 player falls to 14, then he may not be a consensus top 5 player...

I don't recall who was speaking on NFL Radio the other day, but they gave some insight to how teams deal with players coming out of college deal with question marks (behavior, injury, substance abuse, etc.).   The explanation was that the player will be ranked on their abilities ignoring the question marks, but have their name flipped upside down on their big board.  And as the draft progresses, the team has the ability to see where the player, with questions marks, ranks on skill set and abilities against the pool of remaining players.    They also commented that each team (Owner, GM, HC, scouts) will have their own bias on how they perceive that question mark, which is even more difficult to manage.

Some items are simply deal breakers for a team, regardless of the abilities of the questionable player vs the next best available. 

Specifically to the question asked.  Reggie has shown that he is willing to look past injury risk to draft what he sees as the best player available (Hayden), and the Raiders have shown that they will walk away from players with injury concern (Safford).   Hard to say where either Jack or Jaylon fall on that list.  I'm sure it's in the details and opinions of the doctors as already mentioned.    For me, it's not whether the player is worth the spot or not, it's how he stacks up (with his risks) against the next BPA.

Great post.  

It's very tantalizing to think about a guy like Jaylon killing it here, but we also have to think that this guy's game is so great because of the very trait (explosiveness) that this injury could completely take away.  It really sucks for him.

I did hear that he has a $5 mill insurance policy that he cashes if he doesn't go in the 1st round.  

 

[Cookiemonster]

NFL Insiders just had some stuff on Jaylon:

Stephania Bell said that she had not heard any news about nerve regeneration, and the longer it goes without hearing anything, the worse that is.  

Jim Trotter said he had talked to a few NFL teams, some thought he was worth a late 3rd, some thought they might take him off their boards.  

That 5th round pick for Brice Butler from Dallas, that's the dream pick as far as I'm concerned.  OK, maybe the 4th rounder.  

This is very true.  Hadn't heard this yet.  I broke my back over 5 years ago and 90% of my nerve recovery was within 3 months.  Have made no progress since about the 9 month mark and I still have drop foot.  If he still does, he probably always will.  Hearing that, I'd guess he gets a shot, floats around the league for a couple years as a backup or PS player like Lattimore and then washes out.  He is about 6 months out, so his window is mostly closed and we should know for sure by the one year mark.  Terrible news for him if true.

 

[Chadstroma]

Great post.  

It's very tantalizing to think about a guy like Jaylon killing it here, but we also have to think that this guy's game is so great because of the very trait (explosiveness) that this injury could completely take away.  It really sucks for him.

I did hear that he has a $5 mill insurance policy that he cashes if he doesn't go in the 1st round.  

Yea, I remember hearing about his insurance policy not too long after the injury so I didn't feel too bad for him. Still sucks but at least he protected himself. He will be fine even in the worst case scenario of not being able to play football competitively.

And yes, it is tantalizing to think of what we got with a healthy Jaylon or Myles added to it. But if they aren't back to their former selves pre-injury or not on the field at all- it doesn't help at all and in fact takes away from another player that could help even if less tantalizing.

You have to weight risk vs reward and trust the data you are given and in this situation that is largely what the doctors say.

 

[Hankmoody]

I think if a consensus top 5 player falls to 14, then he may not be a consensus top 5 player...

I don't recall who was speaking on NFL Radio the other day, but they gave some insight to how teams deal with players coming out of college deal with question marks (behavior, injury, substance abuse, etc.).   The explanation was that the player will be ranked on their abilities ignoring the question marks, but have their name flipped upside down on their big board.  And as the draft progresses, the team has the ability to see where the player, with questions marks, ranks on skill set and abilities against the pool of remaining players.    They also commented that each team (Owner, GM, HC, scouts) will have their own bias on how they perceive that question mark, which is even more difficult to manage.

Some items are simply deal breakers for a team, regardless of the abilities of the questionable player vs the next best available. 

Specifically to the question asked.  Reggie has shown that he is willing to look past injury risk to draft what he sees as the best player available (Hayden), and the Raiders have shown that they will walk away from players with injury concern (Safford).   Hard to say where either Jack or Jaylon fall on that list.  I'm sure it's in the details and opinions of the doctors as already mentioned.    For me, it's not whether the player is worth the spot or not, it's how he stacks up (with his risks) against the next BPA.

I think the difference though is Hayden was beyond his "risk" in that he wasn't still recovering.  Any risk he carried was of re-injury (or sucking, but Reggie missed that one).  That's not Jaylon, he's more in the Saffold park where there's a known current impact and an unknown recovery window.  Jack maybe to a lesser extent, but still not a clean bill of health. 

 

[kaso]

I think the difference though is Hayden was beyond his "risk" in that he wasn't still recovering.  Any risk he carried was of re-injury (or sucking, but Reggie missed that one).  That's not Jaylon, he's more in the Saffold park where there's a known current impact and an unknown recovery window.  Jack maybe to a lesser extent, but still not a clean bill of health. 

Hayden would have medically checked out for any team to draft him.   His lack of performance to date and the inability to look back and justify his draft selection has far more to do with his game not translating well to the NFL than it does to the injury he suffered in college.  

 

[Hankmoody]

That's exactly what I just said.  Reggie didn't "look past injury risk to draft what he sees as the best player available (Hayden)" as your post suggested.  The Saffold reference was much more germane to the point, because he was actually hurt when Reggie walked away.

 

[Bruno2]

Dang! The Browns got a haul from the Eagles!  QBS definitely going 1 and 2.

 

[Hankmoody]

One big step closer to EZE in S&B! 

 

[Toomuchnv]

One big step closer to EZE in S&B! 

Raiders need to get ahead of Miami to get Zeke.  Trading the 14 and one of their 5ths might be enough to get them to 12 for Zeke....I would love it if it happened.

 

[Bruno2]

Teams giving up the future for mediocre QBs. It's the sign of the times in the NFL. Thank God for Derek Carr! San Diego is sitting pretty. They essentially have the default #1 pick now. Sounds like their shopping it too.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Who would pay and has the ammo to go up and get Ramsey?

 

[Bruno2]

San Diego would do well to stay put in my opinion. Ending up with Tunsil or Ramsey isn't too shabby.

 

[Chaka]

Probably improves the chances of some team freaking out and moving ahead of Oak to reach for Lynch/Hackenberg/Cook/Prescott.

 

[Chaka]

San Diego would do well to stay put in my opinion. Ending up with Tunsil or Ramsey isn't too shabby.

They would be fools to pass up on Tunsil.  So that pretty much guarantees they trade the pick.

 

[Bruno2]

NFLN is reporting Carolina rescinded Josh Norman's franchise tag! C'mon Reggie sign him up!

 

[Chadstroma]

NFLN is reporting Carolina rescinded Josh Norman's franchise tag! C'mon Reggie sign him up!

Norman would be huge. It would cost us but we would have the cash. Take our secondary from roughly average to top tier. 

 

[BlackMagic10]

Kudos to the Panthers. He's probably looking for an absurd amount of guaranteed money. Highly doubt Reggie makes a move for him.

 

[Bruno2]

I think you're probably right. Reggie has shown his priorities are in the front 7 and trenches. I doubt he lands in Oakland, but man.... If he did, and they went after Karl Joseph in the 2nd (if he's still there), then the secondary would be set!

 

[Chaka]

I would love to have Norman but only at the right price and I doubt he would even consider that price.  I felt the same way about Suh last season.  My guess is he definitely wants to be the highest paid DB in the league, and probably the highest paid defensive player period.  Neither of those price tags, regardless of how it's structured is worth it IMO.

 

[SDJohnny]

I hope Reggie avoids this guy. 16+ per year is a lot to invest in a corner. Wonder what Carolina would be willing to pay to move up to 14? 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I hope Reggie avoids this guy. 16+ per year is a lot to invest in a corner. Wonder what Carolina would be willing to pay to move up to 14? 

As I understand it, the Raiders only have about 9 mil left in cap space, and they will use about 6 mil for rookies and FA signings. If that is correct, they are out of the JN business. I am hoping the Bears or 9ers sign him which could allow a very good rookie CB to fall to the Raiders.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ramsey won't fall that far. And it's still unlikely that Hargraves Falls that far as well even if someone takes Norman. And I don't want to take any other cornerbacks at fourteen.

 

[Toomuchnv]

Ramsey won't fall that far. And it's still unlikely that Hargraves Falls that far as well even if someone takes Norman. And I don't want to take any other cornerbacks at fourteen.

My ideal draft scenario:

1. Rams - Goff

2. Eagles - Wentz

3. Chargers - Tunsil

4. Cowboys - Bosa

5. Jaguars - Ramsey

6. Ravens - Buckner

7. 49ers - Jack

8. Browns - Lynch

9. Bucs - Floyd

10. Giants - Stanley

11. Bears - Reed

12. Saints - Rankins

13. Dolphins - Hargreaves or Zeke

14. Raiders - Hargreaves or Zeke

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

What's really perfect about your picks, Toomuchnv, is that I bet that's exactly what the Browns were thinking -- let's milk everything Robert Griffin's got in a hopeless season, solidify as many picks as we possible can (six picks in the top 100 this year, with two first-round picks in 2016 and 2017), and still be in a place to grab a decent QB prospect in Lynch for the future.

Some may think Paxton Lynch still deserves to be drafted later in the 1st, but no question his value goes up because of this trade. The Browns could still trade down to another QB-hungry team, but if they vie for Lynch here, one downside for the Browns is facing Lynch's inflated price tag just by the nature of Wentz and Goff going 1-2. These guys are the real winners. $25M/year for 4 years and $15M guaranteed is pretty much a lock for both of these guys.

As for us, while I'm not in love with this prospect given the areas we could solidify with the talent that will be there for us at 14, it would be really hard to pass up Zeke if he's there. The guy may be the best rated player in the draft, and could form a pretty extraordinary trinity with Carr and Cooper for years to come.

Realistically, though, I don't think we get that chance, as Zeke's squarely in the Dolphins crosshairs at 13.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Interesting thoughts here.

http://www.silverandblackpride.com/2016/4/20/11475464/josh-norman-most-likely-landing-spots-how-it-affects-oakland-raiders

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Nice Stompin Tom! I was just coming here to post the same link. The Norman deal sounds like things are really lining up in favor of the Raiders again. It is starting to feel like 2014 again. Remember that draft? Mack fell to us with the 5th pick (I recall some people had him rated #1 overall), then Carr in the second. A quality player will fall to them at 14. If they take a CB secondary becomes a strength. If they take a DE or DT, then that group borders on elite. And if by miracle E2  falls to them... man oh man

 

[massraider]

My ideal draft scenario:

1. Rams - Goff

2. Eagles - Wentz

3. Chargers - Tunsil

4. Cowboys - Bosa

5. Jaguars - Ramsey

6. Ravens - Buckner

7. 49ers - Jack

8. Browns - Lynch

9. Bucs - Floyd

10. Giants - Stanley

11. Bears - Reed

12. Saints - Rankins

13. Dolphins - Hargreaves or Zeke

14. Raiders - Hargreaves or Zeke

Good stuff.  

If that Floyd guy goes early, he's my pick for 1st round bust.  

I'm hoping we have the choice of Rankins if he's there.

Guys I hope go in front of our pick that may or may not:

Conklin

Billings

Lynch

Any WR

 

[Toomuchnv]

Good stuff.  

If that Floyd guy goes early, he's my pick for 1st round bust.  

I'm hoping we have the choice of Rankins if he's there.

Guys I hope go in front of our pick that may or may not:

Conklin

Billings

Lynch

Any WR

As always Mass, you are on top of the draft.  The Tampa pick is probably wishful thinking.  Most have them taking Hargreaves.  There are a couple mocks that have them taking Leonard Floyd so in my fantasy dream world that would be the best for us if it happened.

 

[massraider]

I'm not saying Floyd won't go there!

Just saying I would love it.  His teammate Jenkins is one of my favorite players in this draft.  

I've been reading that Hargeeaves is falling, I just read from the 'anonymous scout' on Twitter that Hargreaves will be there at #14.  

I've been reading that Alexander and Hargreaves are falling, that no one loves Xavien Howard, and that Eli Apple is more potential than production.  That's too much CB smoke for me to believe.  

 

[LawFitz]

I'm down on all the 1st round CBs, except Ramsey, whom we have no chance for.

Alexander seems like too much of a me-first guy for this team-first locker room. Rd 2, maybe; Rd 1, no.

Apple is too unrefined to pass up on other more consistent talents in Rd 1.

Hargreaves and Jackson are soft. Both extremely overrated IMO.

If Zeke is gone, give me Stanley (pipe dream), Rankins or trade down. Add Lawson if there is even slight concern that Edwards may not make a full recovery.

Take best available DT in Rd 2 if we don't get one in Rd 1. Or Karl Joseph if we do get Rankins.

Target Sean Davis in Rd 3 or 4. That guy is going to be a steal for someone. He is everything Eli Apple is and more but is getting way less hype/respect. He can play CB or S and fits the Seattle D mold.

And if no Zeke in rd 1, then target Paul Perkins in Rd 4. 

Players we need to go ahead of our pick - Jack, Lynch, Hargreaves and/or Apple

 

[Chadstroma]

I think I am falling on Zeke as my best player available within the realm of possibility of actually happening though I think it is highly unlikely. Failing that I am not really sure there is anyone that I feel like we have to take. Zeke would be a great piece to put together with Carr and Cooper for years to come. A complete 3 down back that can do everything you need a RB to do besides run the ball (which he can do too) such as block and catch. I like Murray but I think Zeke is special where as Murray is good.

With the new trade for #2, we officially have a QB run. I am hoping another QB needy team freaks out and moves up ahead of us (or even with us) to go in and grab Lynch. Ideally, I like the idea of moving back but you need a partner for that and I am not seeing how a team will be motivated to move up will look at #14 as the spot to get to.

Zeke is my wishlist item now though I think if we got him it would be very surprising and very amazing. Everyone else expected to be there or a good chance of being there.... meh. Now granted, I have not put a lot of time and effort in hammering out the prospects here so I could be very wrong- there may be a guy we NEED to grab. Also, that does not mean that guys available won't be great players- it just means I don't see a clear cut "this is the guy" pick at #14 from those who could fall down to us.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I'm down on all the 1st round CBs, except Ramsey, whom we have no chance for.

Alexander seems like too much of a me-first guy for this team-first locker room. 

He may or may not be a me-first guy. Keep in mind this is the lying season in the NFL. What I do know is that he has a very strong record of shutting down every good WR he faced in college. Consider that he was exposed to NFL-talent WRs in practice vs Hopkins/Watkins/Bryant. Watching the national championship game vs ALB revealed just how valuable he was. Once Alexander was injured Clemson could not stop bama. 

I think his game will easily translate to the NFL, and instantly make the secondary a strength (despite question marks at S). 

 

[Hankmoody]

I'm not at all afraid of Hargreaves.  If he's there get all over him.  Vernon Butler or Nkemdiche in the 2nd would be nasty.

 

[massraider]

I'm not at all afraid of Hargreaves.  

Me either.

I also heard this thing about McKenzie, that some thought he should have tried to play in the title game even with the bad hammy, that he could have gone back in.

Of course, there's no name attributed to that opinion, and of course no one can really say how badly his hammy was hurt.  That kind of speculation is just gross, IMO.

 

[Hankmoody]

1st round names:
EZE of course but I have given up that dream
Darron Lee
Vernon Hargreaves
Sheldon Rankins
Jack Conklin

2nd round names:
Vernon Butler
McKenzie Alexander
Kendall Fuller
Robert Nkemdiche
Karl Joseph

Pick any two and I'm thrilled.  Conklin seems like a luxury in the first but a guy that could solve LT long term is awful tempting at 14. 

 

[Chaka]

I wouldn't be surprised if Reggie removed Nkemdiche from the Raiders draft board.

 

[massraider]

So, the info guy over at RaiderForums posted this:

A little something something. WJ3, Rankins & Lee high on big board @ #14. in the Raiders have also shortlisted Robert Nkemdiche, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Bullard as potential targets should they trade down during draft Thursday.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

1st round names:
EZE of course but I have given up that dream
Darron Lee
Vernon Hargreaves
Sheldon Rankins
Jack Conklin

2nd round names:
Vernon Butler
McKenzie Alexander
Kendall Fuller
Robert Nkemdiche
Karl Joseph

Pick any two and I'm thrilled.  Conklin seems like a luxury in the first but a guy that could solve LT long term is awful tempting at 14. 

I believe you are grossly underestimating when Alexander comes off the board. Would love to see Joeseph in the 2nd.

 

[Hankmoody]

Could be, but he's getting very little 1st round press now and he had 0 interceptions in college.

Forgot Derrick Henry in the 2nd.  I'd be ok with that too.  Monster behind our line.

 

[massraider]

Derrick Henry?  Nah,  This guy, next year, is what everyone wishes Derrick Henry was:

Leonard Fournette

 

[Hankmoody]

That guy isn't going to be available in the 2nd round of any draft soon though

 

[Toomuchnv]

Could be, but he's getting very little 1st round press now and he had 0 interceptions in college.

Forgot Derrick Henry in the 2nd.  I'd be ok with that too.  Monster behind our line.

I keep hearing about Alexander and the 0 picks in college....the games I watched he wasn't tested much and he was always locking down the other teams top wr.  I think he has the attitude needed to be a really great corner...and I believe it was mentioned that he has always played corner even during his high school days....he truly loves that position...I think a few years from now, teams may regret passing on this kid.

 

[LawFitz]

He may or may not be a me-first guy. Keep in mind this is the lying season in the NFL. What I do know is that he has a very strong record of shutting down every good WR he faced in college. Consider that he was exposed to NFL-talent WRs in practice vs Hopkins/Watkins/Bryant. Watching the national championship game vs ALB revealed just how valuable he was. Once Alexander was injured Clemson could not stop bama. 

I think his game will easily translate to the NFL, and instantly make the secondary a strength (despite question marks at S). 

I've been back and forth on Mackensie. I do think he has the look, feel and stats of a true shutdown corner. His swag is double edged. If Reggie thinks he fits into our room, then I support it. If he doesn't I won't be mad. As a player, off field questions aside, I like him way more than Hargreaves/Jackson. I do like his fire very much. Like I said, double edged.

 

[LawFitz]

Should we cut Seabass??

There is another allstar kicker from FSU in this draft, who is younger, way cheaper and much more clutch than the fat man in a lil suit.

Let's be honest, Al nostalgia and 50% of 60 yarders made aside, Janko has never been consistent making kicks when the pressure is on, from any length.

6th round pick could get is a better kicker and shave $4mm from our cap for future use on Carr/Mack/Gabe and beyond.

 

[LawFitz]

The more I look into him, the more I like the idea of landing Robert Nkemdiche. Dude is a stud. I do suspect he was on K2/spice when he fell out of that window though. I don't buy that it was just booze. That #### is ridiculous how it affects people and can't (isn't?) tested for.

Not over Rankins at 14, but if we trade down...

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The more I look into him, the more I like the idea of landing Robert Nkemdiche. Dude is a stud. I do suspect he was on K2/spice when he fell out of that window though. I don't buy that it was just booze. That #### is ridiculous how it affects people and can't (isn't?) tested for.

Not over Rankins at 14, but if we trade down...

Dont trade past Pittsburgh then.

I had the same post about Nkemdiche in the Steeler thread a few weeks ago.  Heyward-Nkemdiche-Tuitt.

 

[Hankmoody]

Should we cut Seabass??

There is another allstar kicker from FSU in this draft, who is younger, way cheaper and much more clutch than the fat man in a lil suit.

Let's be honest, Al nostalgia and 50% of 60 yarders made aside, Janko has never been consistent making kicks when the pressure is on, from any length.

6th round pick could get is a better kicker and shave $4mm from our cap for future use on Carr/Mack/Gabe and beyond.

I'd love to get Aguayo, but doubt a 6th gets it done.  Alex Henery was a 4th round pick and a couple of guys recently have been 5th's - none came with the hype Aguayo does.  I'd be ok with an early 5th, I have been disappointed by SJ for years now.  Love the guy, but most overrated player we have at this point.  Solve PK for the next 15 years with a 5th = yes please.

 

[Chaka]

The more I look into him, the more I like the idea of landing Robert Nkemdiche. Dude is a stud. I do suspect he was on K2/spice when he fell out of that window though. I don't buy that it was just booze. That #### is ridiculous how it affects people and can't (isn't?) tested for.

Not over Rankins at 14, but if we trade down...

Again, I just don't see Reggie drafting Crazy and, weed/k2/spice/bath salts/whatever aside, Nkemdiche seems like his elevator doesn't stop at all floors.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I'd love to get Aguayo, but doubt a 6th gets it done.  Alex Henery was a 4th round pick and a couple of guys recently have been 5th's - none came with the hype Aguayo does.  I'd be ok with an early 5th, I have been disappointed by SJ for years now.  Love the guy, but most overrated player we have at this point.  Solve PK for the next 15 years with a 5th = yes please.

Honestly would rather build depth at other positions than burn a 6th on a kicker. Maybe it's my bias, but always viewed PK as a position that can be built, not made. The kind of player like Adrian Peterson, Megatron, Watt, etc. are almost born with athletic gifts that are only bestowed by the gridiron gods to a few players in every generation. Vertiable freaks of nature that combone the very apex conjunction of size, speed, strength, and athleticism.

Kickers? Not so much. If anything, it's a position that can be groomed -- and has been groomed -- through repetition and technique. The notion that you have to have a trajectory from pee wee to pros to be a successful NFL kicker is already disproven -- many scouts are bringing in kickers from other sports like soccer and even rugby in terms their ability to learn NFL kicking technique and succeed at the level.

So I get that you have a proven commodity in Aguayo -- but I think you can find kickers (and even create) kickers from many areas. Not so much with a fantastic defensive athlete or a road grading o-lineman. Would rather take a chance there at 6 than burning it on a kicker.

A punter like Ray Guy, on the other hand.... (jk)