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Jed said:
3/4 of the teams, minimum?
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No.  I could see him being heavily owned, sure, and I think he'll be successful, but at $19 a good portion of that success is priced in.  He MIGHT be $5 underpriced in a best case scenario, but what if he hits the rookie wall in Week 12, or if Cam 2.0 is an abject disaster?  Division is Panthers, Falcons, Saints, Bucs.  These considerations put his correct value right around where it is.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
No.  I could see him being heavily owned, sure, and I think he'll be successful, but at $19 a good portion of that success is priced in.  He MIGHT be $5 underpriced in a best case scenario, but what if he hits the rookie wall in Week 12, or if Cam 2.0 is an abject disaster?  Division is Panthers, Falcons, Saints, Bucs.  These considerations put his correct value right around where it is.
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Agreed. His price is just about right. Much cheaper options for about $7 less with the same late bye.

About a thousand versions in and one thing keeps coming up with all my teams - week 9 & week 11 have a lot of players I like. Those 2 weeks are going to be killers.

 
KingPrawn said:
Agreed. His price is just about right. Much cheaper options for about $7 less with the same late bye.

About a thousand versions in and one thing keeps coming up with all my teams - week 9 & week 11 have a lot of players I like. Those 2 weeks are going to be killers.
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Yes, week 9 has destroyed 34% of my best rosters :(

 
How much stock do you guys put in byes ? I mean asside from oblivious ( you don't roster 2 of a position with same bye ) I mean is there a amount of dead money on a given week that would worry you ?

 
halebop78 said:
How much stock do you guys put in byes ? I mean asside from oblivious ( you don't roster 2 of a position with same bye ) I mean is there a amount of dead money on a given week that would worry you ?
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If someone can resolve that to dollars for you, I'll claim they are full of it.  I just want to be able to think through my floor and ceiling including flex spots in the light weeks.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Yes, week 9 has destroyed 34% of my best rosters :(
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Week 9 has the most teams on bye, including three offenses I like. So it's not really surprising that will be a bad week. To some degree I'm content to take a lower score that week, the cutoff should be lower.

On a related note is anyone else really tempted to take all 4 Patriots backs?

 
-OZ- said:
Week 9 has the most teams on bye, including three offenses I like. So it's not really surprising that will be a bad week. To some degree I'm content to take a lower score that week, the cutoff should be lower.

On a related note is anyone else really tempted to take all 4 Patriots backs?
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Most people are probably trying to choose between zero, one or two of the 4.  Similar situation with KC, NO and SEA, as well as (crappier situations) in WAS, NYG, etc.

 
-OZ- said:
Week 9 has the most teams on bye, including three offenses I like. So it's not really surprising that will be a bad week. To some degree I'm content to take a lower score that week, the cutoff should be lower.

On a related note is anyone else really tempted to take all 4 Patriots backs?
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For $40?  I think I'd take Johnson or Bell instead. Yeah, there's more of a risk of an injury blowing up your team, but there's more of a risk of weeks where the NE backs each score 5 or 6 points.

 
apalmer said:
For $40?  I think I'd take Johnson or Bell instead. Yeah, there's more of a risk of an injury blowing up your team, but there's more of a risk of weeks where the NE backs each score 5 or 6 points.
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True. I'm just thinking the possibility of them counting for both RB scores or a flex is pretty decent, and injury risk becomes minimal.  I took them it earlier today but it send a low risk rbbc move. Maybe not the type of move that wins the contest though.

 
halebop78 said:
How much stock do you guys put in byes ? I mean asside from oblivious ( you don't roster 2 of a position with same bye ) I mean is there a amount of dead money on a given week that would worry you ?
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I put more stock in it than most. It's not a certain amount of money I avoid having the same bye, it's more a % of my roster I avoid having the same bye. 

This may have a lot to do with your strategy overall, though. For instance if you believe in having 4 studs and fill in the rest of your roster I certainly wouldn't want any of those 4 big $ guys to have the same bye. I generally spread the money out though.

 
QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/5 - $21
QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $11
QB - Jared Goff - LAR/8 - $6
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/11 - $19
RB - Bilal Powell - NYJ/11 - $15
RB - Danny Woodhead - BAL/10 - $14
RB - Kareem Hunt - KC/10 - $10
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE/9 - $7
WR - Mike Evans - TB/11 - $29
WR - Michael Crabtree - OAK/10 - $19
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/10 - $19
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/11 - $5
WR - Kenny Golladay - DET/7 - $3
TE - Jimmy Graham - SEA/6 - $18
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/9 - $15
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $13
TE - Dwayne Allen - NE/9 - $7
PK - Phil Dawson - ARI/8 - $3
PK - Aldrick Rosas - NYG/8 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - LAR/8 - $2
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/11 - $5
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/5 - $3
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/6 - $3

Still need to adjust for byes.  8 10 and 11 are killers

 
KingPrawn said:
Agreed. His price is just about right. Much cheaper options for about $7 less with the same late bye.

About a thousand versions in and one thing keeps coming up with all my teams - week 9 & week 11 have a lot of players I like. Those 2 weeks are going to be killers.
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Same here. I've currently got $64 on week 9, but like OZ said, it's the week with the most byes so you can probably get away with having more guys on bye that week because everyone else will, too.

-OZ- said:
On a related note is anyone else really tempted to take all 4 Patriots backs?
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Not at all. This format favors the bold. You gotta pick the right guy out of RBBCs and never handcuff. The only handcuffs you should grab are the handcuffs for starters your crystal ball predicts injury for!

QuizGuy66 said:
Surpised to say my latest roster iteration is up to 28  no wait 29....

-QG
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I'm at 30 with $3 left. Really wish I could just spend that $3 on a 31st player...

 
FF Ninja said:
Same here. I've currently got $64 on week 9, but like OZ said, it's the week with the most byes so you can probably get away with having more guys on bye that week because everyone else will, too.

Not at all. This format favors the bold. You gotta pick the right guy out of RBBCs and never handcuff. The only handcuffs you should grab are the handcuffs for starters your crystal ball predicts injury for!

I'm at 30 with $3 left. Really wish I could just spend that $3 on a 31st player...
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Hmm. I'm gonna have to think about this. I changed from the pats backs but handcuffed my top back. I think I might change but anyway but I'm on the fence.

Right now I'm at a studs and duds type plan, top starters and cheap depth. 25 players with very few in the teens.

 
-OZ- said:
Hmm. I'm gonna have to think about this. I changed from the pats backs but handcuffed my top back. I think I might change but anyway but I'm on the fence.

Right now I'm at a studs and duds type plan, top starters and cheap depth. 25 players with very few in the teens.
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You gotta get lucky AF to win this thing, so you can't be wasting money on a contingency plan in case your RB1 goes down. To win this thing you've got to hit almost every player and if your RB1 goes down, you have to think there are a few people out there who didn't select your RB1 but did select his backup, so they're like your team but with $30 more to spend...

 
Deamon said:
QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/5 - $21
QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $11
QB - Jared Goff - LAR/8 - $6
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/11 - $19
RB - Bilal Powell - NYJ/11 - $15
RB - Danny Woodhead - BAL/10 - $14
RB - Kareem Hunt - KC/10 - $10
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE/9 - $7
WR - Mike Evans - TB/11 - $29
WR - Michael Crabtree - OAK/10 - $19
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/10 - $19
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/11 - $5
WR - Kenny Golladay - DET/7 - $3
TE - Jimmy Graham - SEA/6 - $18
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/9 - $15
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $13
TE - Dwayne Allen - NE/9 - $7
PK - Phil Dawson - ARI/8 - $3
PK - Aldrick Rosas - NYG/8 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - LAR/8 - $2
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/11 - $5
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/5 - $3
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/6 - $3

Still need to adjust for byes.  8 10 and 11 are killers
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Spreading maximum disinformation? 

3 QBs is unnecessary. Many winning teams have had only one, two at most.

Only 5 WR in a PPR format is suicide. almost every week you will be playing 4 WR scoring - they are the top/consistent scorers.

 
Phenomena said:
Spreading maximum disinformation? 

3 QBs is unnecessary. Many winning teams have had only one, two at most.

Only 5 WR in a PPR format is suicide. almost every week you will be playing 4 WR scoring - they are the top/consistent scorers.
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Many have had one?  And during bye week just don't start a qb?  Doubtful.  Goff is cheap. $6 just in case. 

It's 1.5 te PPR. Likely will be flexing at least 1 te each week. Likely two.  So no, won't be starting 4 wrs each week. Likely starting 2-3 each week. 

 
Final answer (until it changes).  WR heavy and a bunch of pass-catching RBs.  Plus a few tight ends and multiple cheap K and D/ST.

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/9 - $15
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/6 - $12
RB - Danny Woodhead - BAL/10 - $14
RB - C.J. Prosise - SEA/6 - $10
RB - Rob Kelley - WAS/5 - $10
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/5 - $8
RB - Charles Sims - TB/11 - $5
RB - Wendell Smallwood - PHI/10 - $3
WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/9 - $37
WR - Jordy Nelson - GB/8 - $31
WR - Doug Baldwin - SEA/6 - $25
WR - DeVante Parker - MIA/11 - $14
WR - Ted Ginn - NO/5 - $9
TE - Jimmy Graham - SEA/6 - $18
TE - Jack Doyle - IND/11 - $11
TE - David Njoku - CLE/9 - $8
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/5 - $4
PK - Andrew Franks - MIA/11 - $3
PK - Blair Walsh - SEA/6 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - LAR/8 - $2
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/11 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/9 - $2
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/7 - $2
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/5 - $2

 
Deamon said:
Many have had one?  And during bye week just don't start a qb?  Doubtful.  Goff is cheap. $6 just in case. 

It's 1.5 te PPR. Likely will be flexing at least 1 te each week. Likely two.  So no, won't be starting 4 wrs each week. Likely starting 2-3 each week. 
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There are only a few TE's that are consistent enough to be counted upon though, and they are pricey. I guess you could have a huge group of inexpensive TE's but again that would cost you both money and roster spots.

 
BoltBacker said:
There are only a few TE's that are consistent enough to be counted upon though, and they are pricey. I guess you could have a huge group of inexpensive TE's but again that would cost you both money and roster spots.
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To each their own I guess. Have done well in this contest before and have played a ton of this 1.5te duel flex format and tight ends end up counting often in this format. 

Still haven't seen a team finish top 10 in this contest with 1 qb though like you suggest.  Check the stats. 

 
Phenomena said:
Only 5 WR in a PPR format is suicide. almost every week you will be playing 4 WR scoring - they are the top/consistent scorers.
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I think 5 WR COULD work, but I wouldn't try it. Assuming you are diligent about your bye weeks that means 5 weeks of 4WR lineups... and that's if your WR's play in 80/80 games. One injury to the position and you would have to be extremely lucky to advance for long.

Even if I did try it that probably wouldn't be the group I would personally go with, but that's what makes this contest so fun. The only way I would try that strategy is there was a rash of injuries/trades after the contest was released and you could suddenly get several guys with guaranteed WR#1 volume of targets and WR#3 prices. 

 
Deamon said:
To each their own I guess. Have done well in this contest before and have played a ton of this 1.5te duel flex format and tight ends end up counting often in this format. 

Still haven't seen a team finish top 10 in this contest with 1 qb though like you suggest.  Check the stats. 
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And do you usually attack the position with more players, or more capital(in this case $ but in other formats draft capital)?

 
FF Ninja said:
Not at all. This format favors the bold. You gotta pick the right guy out of RBBCs and never handcuff. The only handcuffs you should grab are the handcuffs for starters your crystal ball predicts injury for!
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I agree with this. For instance in most FF leagues I think J.Williams(BUF) is going way, way too early as a guy that will have little value UNLESS McCoy goes down. Same goes for Conner. But in a contest like this why not try a half court shot for less than $10. McCoy has a ton of wear on his tires, and Bell is injury prone and kind of a dummy. 

 
dbc925 said:
Final answer (until it changes).  WR heavy and a bunch of pass-catching RBs.  Plus a few tight ends and multiple cheap K and D/ST.

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/9 - $15
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/6 - $12
RB - Danny Woodhead - BAL/10 - $14
RB - C.J. Prosise - SEA/6 - $10
RB - Rob Kelley - WAS/5 - $10
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/5 - $8
RB - Charles Sims - TB/11 - $5
RB - Wendell Smallwood - PHI/10 - $3
WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/9 - $37
WR - Jordy Nelson - GB/8 - $31
WR - Doug Baldwin - SEA/6 - $25
WR - DeVante Parker - MIA/11 - $14
WR - Ted Ginn - NO/5 - $9
TE - Jimmy Graham - SEA/6 - $18
TE - Jack Doyle - IND/11 - $11
TE - David Njoku - CLE/9 - $8
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/5 - $4
PK - Andrew Franks - MIA/11 - $3
PK - Blair Walsh - SEA/6 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - LAR/8 - $2
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/11 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/9 - $2
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/7 - $2
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/5 - $2
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Rethink this.  Your RB2 is C.J. Prosise.  Baldwin, Parker, Doyle, and Ginn will be up and down.  You need 2 RBs, 2WRs and 2Flex you can count on.

 
BoltBacker said:
And do you usually attack the position with more players, or more capital(in this case $ but in other formats draft capital)?
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Depends on the year. This year I love the value up top and allen if gronk hurt is a no brained. Just me though, everyone will have their own strategy. 

 
BoltBacker said:
My guess would be A Seferian-Jenkins NYJ given the format.
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Off the field issues previously, and now he's in the big apple with a paycheck on a craptastic team. lots of risk there.  not disagreeing that he'll be on a lot of rosters but the other options I listed have less risk, unless you think woodhead's window is closed.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Off the field issues previously, and now he's in the big apple with a paycheck on a craptastic team. lots of risk there.  not disagreeing that he'll be on a lot of rosters but the other options I listed have less risk, unless you think woodhead's window is closed.
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Oh, I am a big fan of Woodhead but I would feel more comfortable if he had been practicing with Flacco all summer. When these QB's are "supposed" to be ready in week#1 it really spooks me when they aren't building timing/chemistry with a new receiver. Woodhead is also a different level of player at $14 as opposed to ASJ at $6.

Those low number guys that you can just shoe-horn in at the end are kinda automatic. It's the reason Golladay will be on a TON of rosters..... because you don't have to give up anything to put him on your roster.

The age thing doesn't help with regard to Woodhead but it's more a price/Flacco reps thing than anything else. 

 
Here is a small roster team I have been playing around with.  I seem to be fluctuating between 18 and 25 players.  Today just happens to be on the lower end.  I don't think I have ever made it into the double digit weeks in this contest....maybe because I put rosters like these together.  I defiantly need more depth at WR, but not sure where to pull it from yet.

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/8 - $28
QB - Trevor Siemian - DEN/5 - $5
RB - David Johnson - ARI/8 - $39
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/11 - $19
RB - Danny Woodhead - BAL/10 - $14
RB - Thomas Rawls - SEA/6 - $8
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/5 - $30
WR - Doug Baldwin - SEA/6 - $25
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/8 - $5
WR - Kenny Golladay - DET/7 - $3
TE - Jordan Reed - WAS/5 - $23
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/9 - $15
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $13
PK - Justin Tucker - BAL/10 - $6
PK - Nick Novak - HOU/7 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - LAR/8 - $2
TD - New England Patriots - NE/9 - $6
TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF/6 - $4
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/5 - $2

Total value: 250

 
Here is my lovely 29 player roster

QB - Marcus Mariota - TEN/8 - $16
QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/7 - $13
QB - Sam Bradford - MIN/9 - $7
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/11 - $19
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/9 - $17
RB - Danny Woodhead - BAL/10 - $14
RB - Duke Johnson - CLE/9 - $13
RB - Kareem Hunt - KC/10 - $10
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE/9 - $7
RB - Darren McFadden - DAL/6 - $7
RB - DeAndre Washington - OAK/10 - $5
WR - Terrelle Pryor - WAS/5 - $18
WR - Brandon Marshall - NYG/8 - $15
WR - Cameron Meredith - CHI/9 - $11
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/8 - $5
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/11 - $5
WR - Kenny Stills - MIA/11 - $5
WR - ArDarius Stewart - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - Kenny Golladay - DET/7 - $3
WR - Jaron Brown - ARI/8 - $3
TE - Jimmy Graham - SEA/6 - $18
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $13
TE - Austin Seferian-Jenkins - NYJ/11 - $6
PK - Phil Dawson - ARI/8 - $3
PK - Nick Novak - HOU/7 - $3
PK - Caleb Sturgis - PHI/10 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/8 - $3
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/5 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/7 - $2

 
ponchsox said:
Same here. Some value there but those players will be chalky now.
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If Ware's injury is just a PCL strain, it will make Week 6 forward very muddy.....I was more of a fan of Hunt before last night's game....he lacks vision, and as a bonus the whole offense looked like crap.  I'm thinking now I will avoid Hunt unless the Ware injury is more than temporary.

 
Going with a larger roster as of now this year. I'm usually in the 23-25 range, sitting at 28 right now. 

My strategy:

QB - 2 for $28: Picked 2 mid-range values who have a good combined schedule, and have tier 1 potential on any given week. Debating about adding a 3rd, but I'm liking my combo right now. 

RB - 4 for $80: One stud, two mid-priced running backs who have RB1 potential, and 1 who should be consistent in a PPR league. I like going with a few higher priced RBs and hope to get lucky with avoiding injuries, than throwing darts at low priced running backs and trying to predict injuries. Goal is to put up solid scores at RB, but count on the 2 flex spots each week from WR and TE.

WR - 12 for $82: Throwing darts and trying to find value, and using the best ball format to my advantage. Picking a lot of high variance players with upside. Right now I have 12 WRs, with the most expensive being $13. Different than what I usually do, but I love the value of the cheap players this year; usually pick 2 studs and then fill my roster with 6 or so <$10 picks. 

TE - 4 for $47: 4 value plays in the $9-15 range who should flex most weeks. 

K and Def - 3 for $7 and 3 for $6: 3 cheap plays of each with different BYE weeks. I haven't tried to look at combined schedule yet. 

Trying to decide if I'm okay with the amount I have off on some bye weeks. $69 off on week 9, but this should be a trouble spot for most, $47 off on week 8, not too bad, but $50 off on week 11 worries me with how competitive it gets at that point in this contest. 

 
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