need2know
Footballguy
agree i think this bears game could be a trap as they may be looking ahead to the dallas game
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2022 Philadelphia Eagles - Leave Gannon in Arizona and let’s run through the NFC again in 2023. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Noid
- Start date
agree i think this bears game could be a trap as they may be looking ahead to the dallas game
Terpman22
Footballguy
Not me. Bears don't do much at all well. Contain Fields from going on those long runs and its a wrap. I expect a heavy dose of the run game on offense, and disciplined blitzing a bit more on defense. I know, outside Gannon's wheelhouse usually, but you gotta play certain players differently. He adjusted a bit to how he defended Tennessee and their run game, so hoping a little more here. Either way, at this point, considering HOW DOMINANT this team is, any more L's where we play starters will truly surprise me.
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need2know
Footballguy
Overdue for a down game. Would rather have one before the playoffs. Don't get me wrong maybe we can just win every game easily and rest starters every game like we have been. But do you really think that's realistic?
Insein
Footballguy
Lock
Insein
Footballguy
If the bears had a better defense I'd be worried. We're going to score 40 this weekend
Timmay
Footballguy
haha you're not hijacking, you're actually talking about football which is welcomed!
Cowboys game REALLY worries me tbh. But like others have said, that one won't even be important if we win the others.
Crazy that we have a 2.5 game lead on Dallas with only 4 to go, but that one game can completely swing things to where we need to win out.
I would love it if the Dallas game didn't matter as much, and if we could rest our starters vs NYG. Really hoping the Jags have a miracle in them this week.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Not worried. Dallas RT (Peters or Ball) vs BG, Reddick is a mismatch. On top of the guy that Diggs isn't covering (Aj Brown or Devonta). Trickle down effect to their slot corner who is also a backup going vs Quez Watkins. And Goedert will be back for the game.haha you're not hijacking, you're actually talking about football which is welcomed!
Cowboys game REALLY worries me tbh. But like others have said, that one won't even be important if we win the others.
Crazy that we have a 2.5 game lead on Dallas with only 4 to go, but that one game can completely swing things to where we need to win out.
I would love it if the Dallas game didn't matter as much, and if we could rest our starters vs NYG. Really hoping the Jags have a miracle in them this week.
Its going to be ugly.
The Noid
Avoid me!
Eagles have won 8 straight games against animal mascot teams, too.
Timmay
Footballguy
haha you're not hijacking, you're actually talking about football which is welcomed!
Cowboys game REALLY worries me tbh. But like others have said, that one won't even be important if we win the others.
Crazy that we have a 2.5 game lead on Dallas with only 4 to go, but that one game can completely swing things to where we need to win out.
I would love it if the Dallas game didn't matter as much, and if we could rest our starters vs NYG. Really hoping the Jags have a miracle in them this week.
Thank you for the hospitality.
The Cowboys game worries me too, I think the Cowboys will be out for blood that game and the home field advantage might be the difference maker in that one. Plus it feels like its the Cowboys super bowl while Eagles have bigger fish to fry. I am happy that even with a loss in that game, it wouldn't matter as long as they win out, but I'd rather not have to sweat it out until the last week either.
To a lesser extent the Bears game worries me a little bit too, while I 100% believe the Eagles are a better team in all facets of the game, Fields is a game changer and makes some thing out of nothing a lot of the time. An away game for the Eagles and 2nd in a row at that.
With all that being said, in Hurts I Trust. He deserves the MVP over anyone else in the league right now, including my Joe Burrow.
I love the optimism from all the Eagles fans as well not sweating the Cowboys game. I guess that is what you get when your team is 12-1 sitting in first place in the NFC.
modogg
Footballguy
feel very confident that they win the NFC East. sure bit of a homer pick here, but really have no reason to think they don't win this. If you get worried, i think betting the line in the Cowboys game for the Cowboys can cushion the blow if you get worried.
Personally, i have money on the Eagles to win the NFC East as well, and will be putting money on them against the Cowboys because i am pretty sure the Eagles have been eyeing that match-up for a few weeks
modogg
Footballguy
agreed, "lock" is one of the scariest words when it comes to gambling. lol
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
why so many concern about the dallas game, i think we see the Eagles' best in that game and win. they been reading the same headlines, we beat a team without their starting QB, etc etc. it's statement game. further, they all know what's coming next year with all the contract talks and what not. i think the players treat this year like win-it-all or bust. another reason games like that dallas game will be top of mind imo.
modogg
Footballguy
agree completely. only way i think Eagles lose will be based on coaching staff if they worry about the playoff match-up and go real vanilla to play them, not wanting to show the Cowboys anything for the potential playoff match-up. i don't think they will do this, but that is really the kind of only way.
also shold have Goeddert back for that one which should make it more fun
modogg
Footballguy
I really have avoided the "is Jalen Hurts any good" discussion ever since like week 3, but wanted to chip in after hearing some recent stats (mostly from the Birds with Friends podcast). this is kind of for @DJackson10, but good for all:
So, after the TB game i am sure we all had some questions and were disappointed. the game plan showed some specific holes with Hurts, and they exploited them well. 3 of the biggest were:
1. How does Hurts handle the blitz with a good shadow on him
2. Hurts takes long to process plays and goes 1st read most of the time
3, Hurts can't throw to the left or middle of the field
looking at some of the numbers there is some truth to the above. but i also think we have more than an ample number of data points to compare how he looks this year. there are a bunch of numbers that can be thrown out, but lets look at the above
1. this one is more based on the "eye test", but defenses have game planned for Hurts a number of ways this year. they have blitzed a bunch, they have sat back in coverage, and spied him. and with all of that, i can't think of any game where Hurts demonstrated being truly limited (closest could be the Colts game, i would have to look again). he has done well showing if you blitz him he can burn you by running or throwing, and if yuo sit in coverage he won't make a bd gamble and throw multiple INTS. i think he passes #1
2. now i have some numbers. So Hurts, when throwing passes of more than 3 yards down the field took 3.2 seconds to make a play. this year he has trimmed that processing to 2.7 seconds. i think along with this less time holding onto the ball, we also see better completion rates (54.4% last year, 64.4% this year and longer attempts, up to 9.7 ypa from 8.3 last year)
3. lastly, and this one really stood out to me after that TB game, was how much difficulty Hurts had rolling to his left or even throwing to the left or middle of the field. So they split the field in a basically 6 sections, here are the numbers:
'21 '22
left from hash to sideline 19% 25%
left numbers to hash 12% 19%
middle is close to similar numbers and biggest decrease is far right where in '21 he threw there 33% of the time, this year it is closer to 20%.
So with those numbers we can see that he spreads the ball much better. some of this is helped with AJ brown often playing the left side, but that doesn't really matter here. he basically has a close to even split across the field, which is great. best number out of all of that is:
Hurts completion % to the left side of the field in '21 was 46.4%. In '22, his completion % to the left is 70.8%
now i wrote way too much above, so for the tl,dr crowd, the numbers Hurts has this year indicate he has addressed some of the weaknesses from last year and has shown improvement consistently across 13 games. Now we also know the playoffs will matter, and hopefully Hurts doesn't utterly collapse, but looking at the 13 game sample so far this year there is certainly no reason to believe he will just buckle, and that he has a legit chance to continue at least some of this into the post-season
So, after the TB game i am sure we all had some questions and were disappointed. the game plan showed some specific holes with Hurts, and they exploited them well. 3 of the biggest were:
1. How does Hurts handle the blitz with a good shadow on him
2. Hurts takes long to process plays and goes 1st read most of the time
3, Hurts can't throw to the left or middle of the field
looking at some of the numbers there is some truth to the above. but i also think we have more than an ample number of data points to compare how he looks this year. there are a bunch of numbers that can be thrown out, but lets look at the above
1. this one is more based on the "eye test", but defenses have game planned for Hurts a number of ways this year. they have blitzed a bunch, they have sat back in coverage, and spied him. and with all of that, i can't think of any game where Hurts demonstrated being truly limited (closest could be the Colts game, i would have to look again). he has done well showing if you blitz him he can burn you by running or throwing, and if yuo sit in coverage he won't make a bd gamble and throw multiple INTS. i think he passes #1
2. now i have some numbers. So Hurts, when throwing passes of more than 3 yards down the field took 3.2 seconds to make a play. this year he has trimmed that processing to 2.7 seconds. i think along with this less time holding onto the ball, we also see better completion rates (54.4% last year, 64.4% this year and longer attempts, up to 9.7 ypa from 8.3 last year)
3. lastly, and this one really stood out to me after that TB game, was how much difficulty Hurts had rolling to his left or even throwing to the left or middle of the field. So they split the field in a basically 6 sections, here are the numbers:
'21 '22
left from hash to sideline 19% 25%
left numbers to hash 12% 19%
middle is close to similar numbers and biggest decrease is far right where in '21 he threw there 33% of the time, this year it is closer to 20%.
So with those numbers we can see that he spreads the ball much better. some of this is helped with AJ brown often playing the left side, but that doesn't really matter here. he basically has a close to even split across the field, which is great. best number out of all of that is:
Hurts completion % to the left side of the field in '21 was 46.4%. In '22, his completion % to the left is 70.8%
now i wrote way too much above, so for the tl,dr crowd, the numbers Hurts has this year indicate he has addressed some of the weaknesses from last year and has shown improvement consistently across 13 games. Now we also know the playoffs will matter, and hopefully Hurts doesn't utterly collapse, but looking at the 13 game sample so far this year there is certainly no reason to believe he will just buckle, and that he has a legit chance to continue at least some of this into the post-season
Terpman22
Footballguy
I think its a mix of underdog mentality for the longest time mixed with jinxing/not wanting words to come back to bite people. This is by far the most complete and dominant Eagles team I have ever seen in my lifetime. There aren't really any holes. The same cannot be said for Dallas.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Great breakdown appreciate this! San Francisco IMO poses the biggest threat to stopping Jalen and this team.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Great info, thanks for sharing. Pumped that it seems we’ve found our QB, can’t imagine what his payday will look like.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Eagles aren't trading Hurts. That is the silliest most insane thing I've heard. The locker room would be crushed. AJ Brown would be a shell and would (rightfully) demand a trade. Yes, Hurts might not keep this up, no kidding. Or, he might. This is literally the first time since High School he's had the same offensive system for 2 years in a row, and oh wow look. Every professional NFL analyst is saying how much growth he's had and that he's playing at a high level - so yea, some people can't get past the preconceived bias, but Hurts is literally doing everything we complained that he wasn't doing last year. Throwing deep, middle of the field, reading defenses, reducing turnovers, completing a higher percentage of his passes.
Spends every Monday on an anti-hurts tear.
Says there's only 5 QBs in the world that he'd take over him.
He's better at using his WR's then Wentz ever was. Cam Newton? Lazy comparison - in Cam's MVP year he was sub-60% passer, with double digit interceptions. He just had 45 TD's, so yea. Hurts isnt showing those flaws that were always there with Cam.
They also said Lamar Jackson was the next best thing. Marcus Mariotto, Jamis Winston, Jamarcus Russel, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Kyler Murray, Manziel, Locker, RGIII, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rose, Mitchell Trubisky, JP Losman. List goes on of who they've all thought was good. There's also the cause of players having one good year and being total flukes. Analyst have been wrong before. Remember when everyone and anyone was saying Colin Kaepernick was the next great thing only problem is people didn't realize you can't run a base offense that is a college offense. There's fads in the NFL.
Hurts in the same system ok I get it. Most guys go through college and pros without the same offense. It's just a lazy excuse like the line didn't block for him that guys like RG3, Cam and others had. I'm not denying Hurts has had a great season. I just don't think he'll come anywhere close to this again nor could he if needed take a team on his back and win if needed.
Locker rooms will get over it. Guys know it's a business. Friends leave teams all the time. This isn't the NBA whee the players make all the decisions. This is the NFL There's no GM Lebron here besides drama queens like Brady.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Most of these guys just look at needs and be like "Oh X Player is rated high and X team has need he's going here." No fit to scheme
DJackson10
Footballguy
Again the offensive thing is lazy. Multiple QBs have had years of multiple offenses. Favre been through it. Multiple College QBs have had different offenses and continued to succeed. Yes if Hurts needs the same offensive system yearly and Steichen leaves and can't perform as well that's not a good thing.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Stoutland won't be gone I think we get Gannon for another year. Steichen leaves which is why I think Hurts will struggle a lot. I like Brian Johnson as the OC but don't know how well Hurts will do with another guy again.
I think we keep CJGJ and one of White, Edwards. Seumalo I could see walking with Injury history,
Hurts will get paid question is how much are the Eagles willing to go.
This is why I say it might be wise to trade Hurts while the coals are hot. Get top value because if it comes crashing down next year we either have to keep him on the franchise tag and hope maybe we can pull something or let him walk. Don't think people realize how different we'll look next year.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Thats all and good no one is questioning his character. Just his on field skill set. You can be the greatest person but in the end performance on the field counts more then anything
DJackson10
Footballguy
Bears are awful played some terrible teams and they are running a gimmick college offense with fields contain fields you contain their offense. Their defense can't stop **** either. If we don't smoke them this week it'd be a let down. If we're as good as everyone says we are we should be putting a 3O spot on them if not more.
DJackson10
Footballguy
My issues on the numbers is they are so astronomically better I don't know if they will continue or not. Is this who he is for his career, is he more of '21 or somewhere in the middle? Its why I think if the Eagles had a replacement in mind and some team came by with a can't refuse offer I think they should take the gamble. Say he's isn't a franchise QB do we really want our own DAK Prescott?
Look Hurts is a great guy, teammate everyone loves him etc etc. What matters most to me is on the field and getting the job done. Like I said I wish Football had numbers similar to baseball to help more on these things. I'd love to know if we have someone accumulating advance stats in terms of how many throws were made with a high success rate completed vs those with a low Success completion on QBs overall or other things.
fatness
Footballguy
Considering trading Jalen Hurts for Carr ignores how far that trade would set back the Eagles. It's hard to believe anyone would even consider it. After Wentz's best year in Philly, who were you suggesting trading him for?
fatness
Footballguy
Isn't that saying "I can't find any stats to back up my opinion"?
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I'd have to look it up but I would bet that the Eagles will continue to be favored throughout the rest of the season-even in Dallas-and they may be the first team to ever be favored in every single game. Only team that jumps out at me that may have also been is the Pats 16-0 year.
In order for them to NOT win the division Dallas would have to go 4-0 over the next four weeks and Eagles would have to lose to Dallas and another team. Remaining games are @ Bears, @ Dallas and close out the year at home against the Saints and Giants. We are damn-near double digit favorites against the bears, I think we could lose against Dallas. Saints are terrible and we just dismantled the Giants who probably won't have anything to play for by week 18.
It all comes down to Dallas, honestly. Beat them and you coast into the #1 seed; lose and its white knuckle-time until the end of the year. As an Eagles fan I would normally expect the latter, but with this team I have this weird feeling that I normally don't have...confidence. I have no doubt that we're going to win out the next four games, including Dallas. This is the best I've ever seen the Eagles. Better than the early 2000's, better than '04 better than '17.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The best way forward for Philly is to hold off on a long-term contract and make Hurts do this again.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Bro, I don't usually respond to the Hurts hate from you, but WTF are you talking about? Brady Quinn? Jimmy Clausen? Sam Darnold? Hurts in year two as a starter is 1000% the QB than anyone you listed above. You are wrong and continue to be wrong about Hurts. The guy is legit.Eagles aren't trading Hurts. That is the silliest most insane thing I've heard. The locker room would be crushed. AJ Brown would be a shell and would (rightfully) demand a trade. Yes, Hurts might not keep this up, no kidding. Or, he might. This is literally the first time since High School he's had the same offensive system for 2 years in a row, and oh wow look. Every professional NFL analyst is saying how much growth he's had and that he's playing at a high level - so yea, some people can't get past the preconceived bias, but Hurts is literally doing everything we complained that he wasn't doing last year. Throwing deep, middle of the field, reading defenses, reducing turnovers, completing a higher percentage of his passes.
Spends every Monday on an anti-hurts tear.
Says there's only 5 QBs in the world that he'd take over him.
He's better at using his WR's then Wentz ever was. Cam Newton? Lazy comparison - in Cam's MVP year he was sub-60% passer, with double digit interceptions. He just had 45 TD's, so yea. Hurts isnt showing those flaws that were always there with Cam.
They also said Lamar Jackson was the next best thing. Marcus Mariotto, Jamis Winston, Jamarcus Russel, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Kyler Murray, Manziel, Locker, RGIII, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rose, Mitchell Trubisky, JP Losman. List goes on of who they've all thought was good. There's also the cause of players having one good year and being total flukes. Analyst have been wrong before. Remember when everyone and anyone was saying Colin Kaepernick was the next great thing only problem is people didn't realize you can't run a base offense that is a college offense. There's fads in the NFL.
Hurts in the same system ok I get it. Most guys go through college and pros without the same offense. It's just a lazy excuse like the line didn't block for him that guys like RG3, Cam and others had. I'm not denying Hurts has had a great season. I just don't think he'll come anywhere close to this again nor could he if needed take a team on his back and win if needed.
Locker rooms will get over it. Guys know it's a business. Friends leave teams all the time. This isn't the NBA whee the players make all the decisions. This is the NFL There's no GM Lebron here besides drama queens like Brady.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Who is questioning his on field skill set? I mean, besides you.
Well looks like you've already got your Hurts excuses ready for if he has a good game vs them.
Haha so which is it!
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I have some great news for you - he has the highest QB rating in the league, the highest completion % from the pocket, the lowest INT%, and an overall 68.0% completion rate. I'd say that's getting job done on the field no matter how you spin it.
trade the likely league MVP that almost every teammate, fan, and analyst is blown away by this year, during his rookie dealYou can't make this stuff up folks
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I'm curious what other young QBs would need to pass this advanced scrutiny before we can agree they're the future of the NFL. Allen? Tua? Burrow?
jasvic
Footballguy
Montana, Brady, Manning. Any QB will look terrible if you try hard enough. No one's perfect.
Insein
Footballguy
I have Jalen in the playoffs. Need him to go nuts against this bad defense this week.
modogg
Footballguy
i think one of the recent podcasts or youtube shows did this recently.
If i had to guess, i would think that the Eagles started to get this impression later in '17 and earlier in '18, and hence why they drafted a QB in the 2nd round. so that is similar to the time frame Hurts has been with the org., so i think they can do a fair comparison with where both are looking as future QBs.
considering the way the salary cap goes, and will continue to increase yearly, i think signing Hurts to a quality contract for both him ad the team makes sense, since 2-3 years from now it will likely be closer to top 15 or top 10 QB in the league.
I think Hurts immeasurables, and general work ethic put him higher than Wentz. the way he addressed the off-season, and specifically focused on some of the weaknesses they shown, show that he is malleable and is open to grow.
Great discussion for post Super Bowl though and maybe pre-draft.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Any given Sunday and I'm not overlooking Dallas. They are a very very good team. Gun-to-head, I think we win.Haha so which is it!
The Noid
Avoid me!
Josh Allen had a very similar arc to what Hurts has.
Year 1: 53% comp, 2k yards, 10 TDs, 5 wins
Year 2: 59% comp, 3k yards, 20 TDs, 10 wins
Year 3: 69% comp, 4.5k yards, 37 TDs, 13 wins
After his year 3 breakout season, no one was saying he still had to “keep doing it another year or two” to prove he’s for real. He immediately entered the top-5 QB conversation.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Yeah I've been saying Allen is the closest to comp for Hurts. Its amazing how close their 3rd year stats are. And both were 24 years old.Josh Allen had a very similar arc to what Hurts has.
Year 1: 53% comp, 2k yards, 10 TDs, 5 wins
Year 2: 59% comp, 3k yards, 20 TDs, 10 wins
Year 3: 69% comp, 4.5k yards, 37 TDs, 13 wins
After his year 3 breakout season, no one was saying he still had to “keep doing it another year or two” to prove he’s for real. He immediately entered the top-5 QB conversation.
DJackson10
Footballguy
to add to this it would show how likely and lucky or unlucky a QB is, Dropped balls that should be caught should also be a stat. I'm math illiterate on coming up with dam formulas but I understand what the numbers say if explained so maybe someone someday will come up with something on this and help teams and coaches and players out. The advanced stats in baseball seem to be helping everyone involved where basketball has more of a pushback from players for some reason.
DJackson10
Footballguy
I agree. If they have to franchise tag him if needed for a year.
DJackson10
Footballguy
If you want him to be cursed for the rest of his career go ahead. The minute I buy a QB jersey they get cursed.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Wentz played some great defenses and teams that year. The Eagles schedule that year going into the season was ranked tied for the top 1O in hardest schedules. This year it's was ranked as one of the softest schedules in the league.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Allen and Burrow have it. Burrow has been winning since his HS days. Tua could be very good if he can stay healthy. What other young QBs? Fields, Ridder, Sam Howell, Jordan Love
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