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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (1 Viewer)

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I haven't been able to find the time to sit down and write out a long AND well researched post on this, but have been thinking about it a lot. I have a couple minutes, so thought I'd share things I think matter:

1. A lot of the stats are misleading because they're full season. If you just look at the team in its current form, Dallas projects as like a 62-ish win team (post ASB + postseason), which would be behind Boston's pace (if you include their postseason win rate I think they're around a 70-win team vs the 64 they had?) but not nearly as behind as full regular season win totals would suggest.

2. Porzingis is vital. If he is out or doesn't play much, I think Dallas is going to light this team up either as a parade to the rim or by generating as many or more 3's than Boston

3. Boston gets a pretty big math advantage from volume and % of threes...but KP is also a decently big part of that.

4. Luka is the best player in the series

5. Boston's core has WAY more big time experience than Dallas (Tatum, Brown, Jrue and even White)

6. Will Kleber be a big contributor?

7. Just how physical is Luka allowed to be on offense, and are Holiday, Brown, White, on defense? If he gets played like Dort (I see Holiday and Brown as likely to try and get into him), he's either going to be allowed to hit and bully also, or he's gonna get super frustrated and I bet it costs Dallas a game or two down the stretch. Jaylen Brown is probably the single best built player to guard Luka in the playoffs so far, at like 6'6" 225 I think. So a bit more height and weight than Dort.

8. I would have Brown on Luka as much as possible. I'd probably even try to match substitutions exactly if I were Mazzula. Holiday is a really good second, he's built almost the exact same as Dort i think. White and Tatum will both get bodied IMO.

9. Interesting what to do with Tatum. Because you have White to throw on Kyrie, you can kind of let Tatum rest a bit over on PJ Washington. But there's an argument to let Tatum handle Kyrie some amount and then Holiday and White both get to roam off Jones/PJ/Green as the case may be. Matchups will be really interesting here, especially if either team thinks they can do the "cross match the centers" thing.

Overall, I can see a couple outcomes:
A. Super close "competitive sweep" or gentlemen's style where every game is within a point or two at the end
B. Mavs win in 6 or 7: this would come down to Luka and Kyrie shotmaking in the clutch
C. Celtics win in 5 or 6: They've also been good on the road. I could see splitting 1 and 2, Boston taking both in Dallas, Luka just wins game 5, and Boston comes in and takes game 6.

I think if it goes 7, Dallas wins.

Handicapping in order of most to least likely:
1. Boston in 6
2. Boston in 5
3. Dallas in 7
4. Dallas in 6
5. Boston in 4

Those are my top five outcomes. I think Boston is around a 60/40 favorite overall to me - and can't mention enough how much I think KP health and in-the flow matter. I'm making all of these predictions on the assumption that he's the same guy he was all regular season for Boston.


ETA: I think -225 implied like a 70% win chance for Boston? So I'm rosier on the Mavs chances than the market, but not by much.
 
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I see this as either a blowout for Boston or a 7 game battle where either team can win.

Crazy that Boston probably has 6 of the best 8 players in the series. If I had to tier the top 16 it would be something like this

Luka
Tatum
Brown/Kyrie/Porzingis
White/Holliday
Horford
Lively/Gafford/Washington
Everyone else
 
I see this as either a blowout for Boston or a 7 game battle where either team can win.

Crazy that Boston probably has 6 of the best 8 players in the series. If I had to tier the top 16 it would be something like this

Luka
Tatum
Brown/Kyrie/Porzingis
White/Holliday
Horford
Lively/Gafford/Washington
Everyone else
I was about to post that I saw several Top 10 player rankings lists where Boston had 6 of the Top 8 players, yet people were taking the Mavs in 5 or 6 (which made no sense to me if that’s how they ranked the players).
 
I see this as either a blowout for Boston or a 7 game battle where either team can win.

Crazy that Boston probably has 6 of the best 8 players in the series. If I had to tier the top 16 it would be something like this

Luka
Tatum
Brown/Kyrie/Porzingis
White/Holliday
Horford
Lively/Gafford/Washington
Everyone else
I was about to post that I saw several Top 10 player rankings lists where Boston had 6 of the Top 8 players, yet people were taking the Mavs in 5 or 6 (which made no sense to me if that’s how they ranked the players).

On paper Boston easily has the most impressive starting five but there's something about this Dallas team and Tatum inevitably choking that makes me lean toward Mavs in 7.
 
That was a rough few days in here Christ. We should shut the thread down during an extended absence of games or something.

Personally I could go for more analysis and breakdown from these stat geek sites (probably the same ones that crowned the Clippers as clear NBA champs the past few years)
 
One thing that I finally had a chance to do a little deeper dive on was the Dallas-had-the-best-defensive-rating-in-the-league-since-March-7th-through-the-end-of-the-regular-season narrative. While that is a true statement, I would point out that in those 20 games, 15 of those games were against teams that missed the playoffs. Two of them were against the Thunder . . . when they allowed 126 and 135 points. The game before that, they also allowed 137 against IND. Were the Mavs better defensively in that stretch, yes. But I definitely think some of the improvement was schedule aided. Doesn't really matter at this point anyway, as they played really well in the playoffs.
 
2 things I think are being under-rated a bit in the various analysis I've seen:

1. How does Dallas guard Boston's offense? A lot of analysis of who guard's Luka, but just as compelling is who does he and Kyrie guard? Both will be a liability 1 on 1 on nearly every possession and if Boston moves the ball well, they will get a lot of open looks and straight line drives. If they move it quick enough, even the Gafford/Lively tandem will be ineffective and get exploited on late closeouts.

2. Rebounding is going to be huge. Porzingis is actually a poor rebounder for his size, and this is where Tatum has to play like a man and White/Holiday/Brown will all have to contribute. Horford will do his work off the bench, but they have to rebound and defend as a team or Dallas can win a game or two almost solely with 2nd chance opportunities and Boston has lapses on the glass a times similar to their occasional defensive malaise. If they go a couple of possessions giving up 2nd and 3rd shots, you will hear me screaming at them from Missouri.
 
2 things I think are being under-rated a bit in the various analysis I've seen:

1. How does Dallas guard Boston's offense? A lot of analysis of who guard's Luka, but just as compelling is who does he and Kyrie guard? Both will be a liability 1 on 1 on nearly every possession and if Boston moves the ball well, they will get a lot of open looks and straight line drives. If they move it quick enough, even the Gafford/Lively tandem will be ineffective and get exploited on late closeouts.

2. Rebounding is going to be huge. Porzingis is actually a poor rebounder for his size, and this is where Tatum has to play like a man and White/Holiday/Brown will all have to contribute. Horford will do his work off the bench, but they have to rebound and defend as a team or Dallas can win a game or two almost solely with 2nd chance opportunities and Boston has lapses on the glass a times similar to their occasional defensive malaise. If they go a couple of possessions giving up 2nd and 3rd shots, you will hear me screaming at them from Missouri.
1) For all the talk this season of what Boston DOESN'T DO (too many threes, stagnant offense, can't close, will choke in the clutch, has offensive lapses, etc.), very little has been made about the offense being the most efficient in league history. Yeah, I get it, that's in the regular season (so apparently that doesn't count). Comparing DAL and BOS based on net numbers in the playoffs, Boston is at +2.4 in 3PM and +5.2 FTM per game. That's a +12.4 point advantage for Boston. I also understand that many games don't adhere to the "regular script" of how things "should" go, but I still think Boston will be better for the first 45 minutes in games, meaning that Dallas being better in the last 3 minutes may not be that big a factor.

Tipping the cap to Dallas for winning three series, but their defensive scheme where they protect the rim, pack the lane, and allow teams to take three's instead plays exactly into how Boston wants to play. On top of that, OKC and MIN showed their inexperience and that they weren't ready yet . . . which I don't expect will happen with Boston. I know a lot of people are buying in on the Boston chokes narrative, but this is a different team (or so I think).

2) Rebounding is always huge. BOS ranked 2nd in rebounding in the regular season and 3rd in the post season. DAL ranked 21st and 4th (so they've been doing a lot better). Boston leads the playoffs in net rebounds by a decent margin. IMO, KP's value is just being on the court. He adds presence as a rim protector defensively, and offensively the Mavs have to guard him, or he will shoot over them all game long. He also is very effective posting up, which again, whether he shoots from down low or kicks the ball out to someone else for a clean three pointer is just a bonus (getting action that they haven't had for a month).

3) I haven't seen much talk about the Mavericks "others" and their success rate shooting threes. Guys like Hardy, Jones, and Washington were making 40%+ of their threes when they were in the 31-32% range over the season (or across their careers). Boston seems to run into teams that have some crazy shooting nights, but the law of averages suggests those guys are going to start missing a lot more to even out the numbers. White and Pritchard have been doing better 3P% wise compared to the regular season, but most of the other guys aren't making threes at the same clip. We can't bank on misses or makes in any given game, but IMO the chances are BOS starts shooting better. Combine those two, and I can see a couple of games when the Mavs are shot out of the gym.

4) The other thing I find interesting is Luka is having his worst playoffs in his career so far in terms of shooting and scoring. Yet for Tatum, people go apoplectic. In terms of eFG%, Luka is at .513 and Tatum at .495 this post season (not great for either of them). I can see Luka continuing to struggle against a bevy of rotating defenders efficiency wise (while still making shots in the clutch). Not sure how we should view an 11 for 30 shooting game for Doncic if he makes a couple of late baskets. Guess it would depend on who ended up winning the game.
 
2 things I think are being under-rated a bit in the various analysis I've seen:

1. How does Dallas guard Boston's offense? A lot of analysis of who guard's Luka, but just as compelling is who does he and Kyrie guard? Both will be a liability 1 on 1 on nearly every possession and if Boston moves the ball well, they will get a lot of open looks and straight line drives. If they move it quick enough, even the Gafford/Lively tandem will be ineffective and get exploited on late closeouts.

2. Rebounding is going to be huge. Porzingis is actually a poor rebounder for his size, and this is where Tatum has to play like a man and White/Holiday/Brown will all have to contribute. Horford will do his work off the bench, but they have to rebound and defend as a team or Dallas can win a game or two almost solely with 2nd chance opportunities and Boston has lapses on the glass a times similar to their occasional defensive malaise. If they go a couple of possessions giving up 2nd and 3rd shots, you will hear me screaming at them from Missouri.
Yes - for Dallas to win I think they need to crush Boston on the glass.

I'm way less worried about #1. We think White and Holiday are better than Jaylin Williams and Ant and Cason Wallace etc? I think clearly more difficult than Minnesota from the POV that four guys can all actually attack vs their limited guys, but Idk how much harder than OKC they are. SGA/Dort/Wallace/Williams/Chet etc.

Idk. Boston is clearly better. But I'm not worried about Holiday or White cooking Luka or Kyrie. I'm not even that worried about Brown cooking Luka. Tatum...it'll depend on which Tatum shows up. Fadeaway step back Tatum? Not super concerned there either. Attack mode Tatum? HE will cook Luka and Kyrie.
 
2 things I think are being under-rated a bit in the various analysis I've seen:

1. How does Dallas guard Boston's offense? A lot of analysis of who guard's Luka, but just as compelling is who does he and Kyrie guard? Both will be a liability 1 on 1 on nearly every possession and if Boston moves the ball well, they will get a lot of open looks and straight line drives. If they move it quick enough, even the Gafford/Lively tandem will be ineffective and get exploited on late closeouts.

2. Rebounding is going to be huge. Porzingis is actually a poor rebounder for his size, and this is where Tatum has to play like a man and White/Holiday/Brown will all have to contribute. Horford will do his work off the bench, but they have to rebound and defend as a team or Dallas can win a game or two almost solely with 2nd chance opportunities and Boston has lapses on the glass a times similar to their occasional defensive malaise. If they go a couple of possessions giving up 2nd and 3rd shots, you will hear me screaming at them from Missouri.
1) For all the talk this season of what Boston DOESN'T DO (too many threes, stagnant offense, can't close, will choke in the clutch, has offensive lapses, etc.), very little has been made about the offense being the most efficient in league history. Yeah, I get it, that's in the regular season (so apparently that doesn't count). Comparing DAL and BOS based on net numbers in the playoffs, Boston is at +2.4 in 3PM and +5.2 FTM per game. That's a +12.4 point advantage for Boston. I also understand that many games don't adhere to the "regular script" of how things "should" go, but I still think Boston will be better for the first 45 minutes in games, meaning that Dallas being better in the last 3 minutes may not be that big a factor.
FWIW isn't like every team in the top five every year for the last ten years the greatest offense in league history?

Your net numbers are a silly stat if they aren't pace and opponent adjusted.

I like all the heavy analytics being brought to this thread because thats how my brain works too but let's provide at least decent context and use ones that apply.
 
It'll depend on which Tatum shows up.
I guess I wonder what will Dallas do differently to change JT averaging 34 / 12 / 6 like he's done over the last two years against the Mavs. JB has averaged 27 / 5 / 4 in that time. If the Jay's average a combined 60 ppg, I don't see a great path for Dallas to win the serious unless the Boston defense completely falls to pieces (or the Celtics non-stars puke on their shoes and the Dallas non-stars play like HOFers).

As for net analytics per 100 possessions, BOS is +6.5 points compared to DAL in the post-season. (The C's are +10.9 and the Mavs are +4.4 based on who've they played so far.)
 
It'll depend on which Tatum shows up.
I guess I wonder what will Dallas do differently to change JT averaging 34 / 12 / 6 like he's done over the last two years against the Mavs. JB has averaged 27 / 5 / 4 in that time. If the Jay's average a combined 60 ppg, I don't see a great path for Dallas to win the serious unless the Boston defense completely falls to pieces (or the Celtics non-stars puke on their shoes and the Dallas non-stars play like HOFers).

As for net analytics per 100 possessions, BOS is +6.5 points compared to DAL in the post-season. (The C's are +10.9 and the Mavs are +4.4 based on who've they played so far.)
I'll play along:

Well Dallas has better defenders more locked in for Tatum right now than at any point in those two years.

It's weird because I'm painting myself into a certain argument, but I think Boston will win the series, possibly even handily. And i think Tatum and Brown could score 60/game and they could lose. And I think i could easily see a world where PJ Washington plus the Lively/Gafford rim protection absolutely put the clamps on Tatum and he averages in the mid-20s.

ETA: and would anyone be shocked to see him not attack the rim, settle for a bunch of kinda bad shots, make some, but miss a lot, and have an off night?

Dallas is FAR and away the best team Boston will have played in the postseason. Especially on defense. Every team Dallas has played would have been the Celtics' toughest opponent.

That's why I have a strong reaction to "i don't see a path for Dallas to win" - there's clearly a path. There's a few paths. It's unnecessary hyperbole. Boston is rightly favored, but there are also obviously paths for Dallas to win. This sounds like 2011 all over again. Or 2022. Or 2016. or...
 
Really don't need to get too deep on this one...no disrespect to a very good Mavs team but the C's control their own destiny...if they play the way they can they are the better team and they will win...if they don't then they will have fully solidified their soft/underachieving rep as it will be well-earned...this is their opportunity to change that perception...Brown and Tatum are far enough into their career, there can be no excuses as they know what is on the line...it's time to show you are a legit championship team.
 
Really don't need to get too deep on this one...no disrespect to a very good Mavs team but the C's control their own destiny...if they play the way they can they are the better team and they will win...if they don't then they will have fully solidified their soft/underachieving rep as it will be well-earned...this is their opportunity to change that perception...Brown and Tatum are far enough into their career, there can be no excuses as they know what is on the line...it's time to show you are a legit championship team.

Dallas in 6.
 
Could someone run the numbers on most words per post per member of the fan base because I think we are seeing a historic matchup here.

Some dudes never got the memo: brevity is the soul of wit.
It takes time to write something good and short.

I know. It's a struggle for me. Three eulogies in 5 years set me right. Be brief, be bright, make your words matter. Do not ramble or you will lose the listener immediately.
 
Really don't need to get too deep on this one...no disrespect to a very good Mavs team but the C's control their own destiny...if they play the way they can they are the better team and they will win...if they don't then they will have fully solidified their soft/underachieving rep as it will be well-earned...this is their opportunity to change that perception...Brown and Tatum are far enough into their career, there can be no excuses as they know what is on the line...it's time to show you are a legit championship team.

I agree with your sentiment but Dallas being matched up with +50 win teams the entire playoffs slaying the best in a superior West while the Celtics have been facing hospital wards is a major reason I'm picking the Mavs. Battle tested.
 
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers are targeting Connecticut’s Dan Hurley to become the franchise’s next coach and are preparing a massive, long-term contract offer to bring the back-to-back national champion to the NBA, sources tell ESPN.

Interesting. I thought they were going the Reddick route.
Somebody on twitter (big name but don't remember who) was linking them to Monty Williams last night.
 
I agree with your sentiment but Dallas being matched up with +50 win teams the entire playoffs slaying the best in a superior West while the Celtics have been facing hospital wards is a major reason I'm picking the Mavs. Battle tested.
I guess it depends on what people consider "battle tested." Some of the core guys on the Celtics have a ton of playoff experience since their initial run starting in 2017. Since then, Boston in the playoffs has beaten Embiid 3 times, Giannis and Butler twice, as well as beating KD and Kyrie. They also played LeBron twice and Steph once. In that time, they've won 15 series. Does that not qualify as being battle tested?

Of the Top 20 guys in the series, here's the breakdown of playoff experience:
Horford - 181 games, Brown - 119, Tatum - 108, Holiday - 84, White - 67, Pritchard - 53, Hauser - 36, Kornet - 29, Tillman - 24, Porzingis - 14
Kyrie - 91, Doncic - 45, Jones - 39, Kleber - 39, Hardaway - 38, Green - 34, Exum - 33, Gafford - 22, Washington - 17, Lively - 16

Record the past 3 seasons vs. teams with 50+ wins (regular and post season): BOS 42-34, DAL 37-44. Yes, the Mavs have beaten three very good teams to get here (including two with hardly and playoff experience). Oddly enough, there's an argument that BOSTON is the more battle tested team looking at a full body of work and not just the last month and a half.
 
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Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers are targeting Connecticut’s Dan Hurley to become the franchise’s next coach and are preparing a massive, long-term contract offer to bring the back-to-back national champion to the NBA, sources tell ESPN.

Interesting. I thought they were going the Reddick route.
Somebody on twitter (big name but don't remember who) was linking them to Monty Williams last night.
Haven’t seen that rumor from any Lakers reporter/blogger I follow. Although I didn’t see Hurley on any list either, so I’m pleasantly surprised there.
 
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers are targeting Connecticut’s Dan Hurley to become the franchise’s next coach and are preparing a massive, long-term contract offer to bring the back-to-back national champion to the NBA, sources tell ESPN.

Interesting. I thought they were going the Reddick route.
Somebody on twitter (big name but don't remember who) was linking them to Monty Williams last night.
Haven’t seen that rumor from any Lakers reporter/blogger I follow. Although I didn’t see Hurley on any list either, so I’m pleasantly surprised there.
Mark Stein was the one that said if Williams got dumped by Detriot he could still end up as a candidate for the Lakers.

“There is a 'what-if' scenario circulating in coaching circles this week about Monty Williams. And whether he could still potentially surface as a candidate if the Detroit Pistons were to part ways with Williams after just one season. His status with the Pistons remains uncertain and is currently being evaluated by Detroit’s new president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon … even though Williams has five seasons left on a contract worth nearly $80 million.”
 
Really don't need to get too deep on this one...no disrespect to a very good Mavs team but the C's control their own destiny...if they play the way they can they are the better team and they will win...if they don't then they will have fully solidified their soft/underachieving rep as it will be well-earned...this is their opportunity to change that perception...Brown and Tatum are far enough into their career, there can be no excuses as they know what is on the line...it's time to show you are a legit championship team.

I agree with your sentiment but Dallas being matched up with +50 win teams the entire playoffs slaying the best in a superior West while the Celtics have been facing hospital wards is a major reason I'm picking the Mavs. Battle tested.

I get that take but on the flip side they could be more tired/beat up and also the C’s have played as many big games as any team the last few years (and Holliday has a ring) so I don’t see them being surprised by anything…it is all about them playing their best…do that and I feel very good about them…but they have to do it.
 
I still think Hurley stays at UCONN, but appreciate the effort by the Lakers.
Agreed on Hurley staying at UConn. I think he'd be a terrible, terrible fit in the NBA, especially with a veteran group. That has disaster written all over it.

Should Detroit & Monty Williams figure out a way to make it work (there's no way the Pistons are just going to fire him and pay him the entire remaining contract balance) he does make a lot of sense for the Lakers.
 
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers are targeting Connecticut’s Dan Hurley to become the franchise’s next coach and are preparing a massive, long-term contract offer to bring the back-to-back national champion to the NBA, sources tell ESPN.

Interesting. I thought they were going the Reddick route.
Somebody on twitter (big name but don't remember who) was linking them to Monty Williams last night.

Yes, please.
 
That was a rough few days in here Christ. We should shut the thread down during an extended absence of games or something.

Nice strawman you have going here.
Keep that crap in the girlie thread.

This one is for REAL basketball.

As long as that crybaby Luka is still playing, this is the girlie basketball thread.

Aren't you rooting for Dallas?

I'm torn, Daisy. Yes, I'm rooting for Dallas as that's my boyhood team (long live Rolando Blackman!) but I just find Luca (or is it Luka?)'s whining and complaining to be oft-putting. I'm sure if I still lived in Dallas (the thought makes me sick) I'd be his #1 fan but he just irritates me. And I would be pleased as punch of Kyrie wandered off the edge of the earth one day.

But yeah, I'd like to see Boston lose almost as much as I want to see Dallas win.
 
That was a rough few days in here Christ. We should shut the thread down during an extended absence of games or something.

Nice strawman you have going here.
Keep that crap in the girlie thread.

This one is for REAL basketball.

As long as that crybaby Luka is still playing, this is the girlie basketball thread.

Aren't you rooting for Dallas?

I'm torn, Daisy. Yes, I'm rooting for Dallas as that's my boyhood team (long live Rolando Blackman!) but I just find Luca (or is it Luka?)'s whining and complaining to be oft-putting. I'm sure if I still lived in Dallas (the thought makes me sick) I'd be his #1 fan but he just irritates me. And I would be pleased as punch of Kyrie wandered off the edge of the earth one day.

But yeah, I'd like to see Boston lose almost as much as I want to see Dallas win.

Maybe I can help you off the edge. Remember Jason Kidd is a scumbag too.
 
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers are targeting Connecticut’s Dan Hurley to become the franchise’s next coach and are preparing a massive, long-term contract offer to bring the back-to-back national champion to the NBA, sources tell ESPN.

Interesting. I thought they were going the Reddick route.
Somebody on twitter (big name but don't remember who) was linking them to Monty Williams last night.

Yes, please.
:goodposting:
 
That was a rough few days in here Christ. We should shut the thread down during an extended absence of games or something.

Nice strawman you have going here.
Keep that crap in the girlie thread.

This one is for REAL basketball.

As long as that crybaby Luka is still playing, this is the girlie basketball thread.

Aren't you rooting for Dallas?

I'm torn, Daisy. Yes, I'm rooting for Dallas as that's my boyhood team (long live Rolando Blackman!) but I just find Luca (or is it Luka?)'s whining and complaining to be oft-putting. I'm sure if I still lived in Dallas (the thought makes me sick) I'd be his #1 fan but he just irritates me. And I would be pleased as punch of Kyrie wandered off the edge of the earth one day.

But yeah, I'd like to see Boston lose almost as much as I want to see Dallas win.

Maybe I can help you off the edge. Remember Jason Kidd is a scumbag too.

:lmao:

I left Dallas right around the time of the 3 Js and had high hopes those guys were going to turn it around. That was......a disaster. It didn't take too much to switch to the Blazers after I got here.
 
The Jontay Porter story keeps getting crazier.

“Brooklyn man, accused of helping Jontay Porter place prop bets on himself, arrested at JFK with a one-way ticket to Australia, a bag stuffed with $12,000 cash, two cashier checks worth $80,000.”

 
I agree with your sentiment but Dallas being matched up with +50 win teams the entire playoffs slaying the best in a superior West while the Celtics have been facing hospital wards is a major reason I'm picking the Mavs. Battle tested.
I guess it depends on what people consider "battle tested." Some of the core guys on the Celtics have a ton of playoff experience since their initial run starting in 2017. Since then, Boston in the playoffs has beaten Embiid 3 times, Giannis and Butler twice, as well as beating KD and Kyrie. They also played LeBron twice and Steph once. In that time, they've won 15 series. Does that not qualify as being battle tested?

Of the Top 20 guys in the series, here's the breakdown of playoff experience:
Horford - 181 games, Brown - 119, Tatum - 108, Holiday - 84, White - 67, Pritchard - 53, Hauser - 36, Kornet - 29, Tillman - 24, Porzingis - 14
Kyrie - 91, Doncic - 45, Jones - 39, Kleber - 39, Hardaway - 38, Green - 34, Exum - 33, Gafford - 22, Washington - 17, Lively - 16

Record the past 3 seasons vs. teams with 50+ wins (regular and post season): BOS 42-34, DAL 37-44. Yes, the Mavs have beaten three very good teams to get here (including two with hardly and playoff experience). Oddly enough, there's an argument that BOSTON is the more battle tested team looking at a full body of work and not just the last month and a half.

You're not wrong. While Tatum will get all the glory, Jrue will be the under reported key factor if you guys win. That dude is the glue that holds them together when in past years they'd fall apart.
 
I agree with your sentiment but Dallas being matched up with +50 win teams the entire playoffs slaying the best in a superior West while the Celtics have been facing hospital wards is a major reason I'm picking the Mavs. Battle tested.
I guess it depends on what people consider "battle tested." Some of the core guys on the Celtics have a ton of playoff experience since their initial run starting in 2017. Since then, Boston in the playoffs has beaten Embiid 3 times, Giannis and Butler twice, as well as beating KD and Kyrie. They also played LeBron twice and Steph once. In that time, they've won 15 series. Does that not qualify as being battle tested?

Of the Top 20 guys in the series, here's the breakdown of playoff experience:
Horford - 181 games, Brown - 119, Tatum - 108, Holiday - 84, White - 67, Pritchard - 53, Hauser - 36, Kornet - 29, Tillman - 24, Porzingis - 14
Kyrie - 91, Doncic - 45, Jones - 39, Kleber - 39, Hardaway - 38, Green - 34, Exum - 33, Gafford - 22, Washington - 17, Lively - 16

Record the past 3 seasons vs. teams with 50+ wins (regular and post season): BOS 42-34, DAL 37-44. Yes, the Mavs have beaten three very good teams to get here (including two with hardly and playoff experience). Oddly enough, there's an argument that BOSTON is the more battle tested team looking at a full body of work and not just the last month and a half.

You're not wrong. While Tatum will get all the glory, Jrue will be the under reported key factor if you guys win. That dude is the glue that holds them together when in past years they'd fall apart.

Jrue really isn’t under-reported…everyone understands what his value is…it is so obvious to see…IMO moving on from Marcus Smart is what is being under-reported right now…that was something that should have happened a few years earlier.
 
I agree with your sentiment but Dallas being matched up with +50 win teams the entire playoffs slaying the best in a superior West while the Celtics have been facing hospital wards is a major reason I'm picking the Mavs. Battle tested.
I guess it depends on what people consider "battle tested." Some of the core guys on the Celtics have a ton of playoff experience since their initial run starting in 2017. Since then, Boston in the playoffs has beaten Embiid 3 times, Giannis and Butler twice, as well as beating KD and Kyrie. They also played LeBron twice and Steph once. In that time, they've won 15 series. Does that not qualify as being battle tested?

Of the Top 20 guys in the series, here's the breakdown of playoff experience:
Horford - 181 games, Brown - 119, Tatum - 108, Holiday - 84, White - 67, Pritchard - 53, Hauser - 36, Kornet - 29, Tillman - 24, Porzingis - 14
Kyrie - 91, Doncic - 45, Jones - 39, Kleber - 39, Hardaway - 38, Green - 34, Exum - 33, Gafford - 22, Washington - 17, Lively - 16

Record the past 3 seasons vs. teams with 50+ wins (regular and post season): BOS 42-34, DAL 37-44. Yes, the Mavs have beaten three very good teams to get here (including two with hardly and playoff experience). Oddly enough, there's an argument that BOSTON is the more battle tested team looking at a full body of work and not just the last month and a half.

You're not wrong. While Tatum will get all the glory, Jrue will be the under reported key factor if you guys win. That dude is the glue that holds them together when in past years they'd fall apart.

Jrue really isn’t under-reported…everyone understands what his value is…it is so obvious to see…IMO moving on from Marcus Smart is what is being under-reported right now…that was something that should have happened a few years earlier.

I guess you don't watch/listen to many of these talking head shows. Everything is about Tatum and Brown. Boston has the closest thing to a Big 5 as you can get - such an impressive starting lineup. If they don't win with all that talent this will be one of the bigger letdowns in recent memory. That being said, Dallas in 7.
 
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