Instinctive
Footballguy
I haven't been able to find the time to sit down and write out a long AND well researched post on this, but have been thinking about it a lot. I have a couple minutes, so thought I'd share things I think matter:
1. A lot of the stats are misleading because they're full season. If you just look at the team in its current form, Dallas projects as like a 62-ish win team (post ASB + postseason), which would be behind Boston's pace (if you include their postseason win rate I think they're around a 70-win team vs the 64 they had?) but not nearly as behind as full regular season win totals would suggest.
2. Porzingis is vital. If he is out or doesn't play much, I think Dallas is going to light this team up either as a parade to the rim or by generating as many or more 3's than Boston
3. Boston gets a pretty big math advantage from volume and % of threes...but KP is also a decently big part of that.
4. Luka is the best player in the series
5. Boston's core has WAY more big time experience than Dallas (Tatum, Brown, Jrue and even White)
6. Will Kleber be a big contributor?
7. Just how physical is Luka allowed to be on offense, and are Holiday, Brown, White, on defense? If he gets played like Dort (I see Holiday and Brown as likely to try and get into him), he's either going to be allowed to hit and bully also, or he's gonna get super frustrated and I bet it costs Dallas a game or two down the stretch. Jaylen Brown is probably the single best built player to guard Luka in the playoffs so far, at like 6'6" 225 I think. So a bit more height and weight than Dort.
8. I would have Brown on Luka as much as possible. I'd probably even try to match substitutions exactly if I were Mazzula. Holiday is a really good second, he's built almost the exact same as Dort i think. White and Tatum will both get bodied IMO.
9. Interesting what to do with Tatum. Because you have White to throw on Kyrie, you can kind of let Tatum rest a bit over on PJ Washington. But there's an argument to let Tatum handle Kyrie some amount and then Holiday and White both get to roam off Jones/PJ/Green as the case may be. Matchups will be really interesting here, especially if either team thinks they can do the "cross match the centers" thing.
Overall, I can see a couple outcomes:
A. Super close "competitive sweep" or gentlemen's style where every game is within a point or two at the end
B. Mavs win in 6 or 7: this would come down to Luka and Kyrie shotmaking in the clutch
C. Celtics win in 5 or 6: They've also been good on the road. I could see splitting 1 and 2, Boston taking both in Dallas, Luka just wins game 5, and Boston comes in and takes game 6.
I think if it goes 7, Dallas wins.
Handicapping in order of most to least likely:
1. Boston in 6
2. Boston in 5
3. Dallas in 7
4. Dallas in 6
5. Boston in 4
Those are my top five outcomes. I think Boston is around a 60/40 favorite overall to me - and can't mention enough how much I think KP health and in-the flow matter. I'm making all of these predictions on the assumption that he's the same guy he was all regular season for Boston.
ETA: I think -225 implied like a 70% win chance for Boston? So I'm rosier on the Mavs chances than the market, but not by much.
1. A lot of the stats are misleading because they're full season. If you just look at the team in its current form, Dallas projects as like a 62-ish win team (post ASB + postseason), which would be behind Boston's pace (if you include their postseason win rate I think they're around a 70-win team vs the 64 they had?) but not nearly as behind as full regular season win totals would suggest.
2. Porzingis is vital. If he is out or doesn't play much, I think Dallas is going to light this team up either as a parade to the rim or by generating as many or more 3's than Boston
3. Boston gets a pretty big math advantage from volume and % of threes...but KP is also a decently big part of that.
4. Luka is the best player in the series
5. Boston's core has WAY more big time experience than Dallas (Tatum, Brown, Jrue and even White)
6. Will Kleber be a big contributor?
7. Just how physical is Luka allowed to be on offense, and are Holiday, Brown, White, on defense? If he gets played like Dort (I see Holiday and Brown as likely to try and get into him), he's either going to be allowed to hit and bully also, or he's gonna get super frustrated and I bet it costs Dallas a game or two down the stretch. Jaylen Brown is probably the single best built player to guard Luka in the playoffs so far, at like 6'6" 225 I think. So a bit more height and weight than Dort.
8. I would have Brown on Luka as much as possible. I'd probably even try to match substitutions exactly if I were Mazzula. Holiday is a really good second, he's built almost the exact same as Dort i think. White and Tatum will both get bodied IMO.
9. Interesting what to do with Tatum. Because you have White to throw on Kyrie, you can kind of let Tatum rest a bit over on PJ Washington. But there's an argument to let Tatum handle Kyrie some amount and then Holiday and White both get to roam off Jones/PJ/Green as the case may be. Matchups will be really interesting here, especially if either team thinks they can do the "cross match the centers" thing.
Overall, I can see a couple outcomes:
A. Super close "competitive sweep" or gentlemen's style where every game is within a point or two at the end
B. Mavs win in 6 or 7: this would come down to Luka and Kyrie shotmaking in the clutch
C. Celtics win in 5 or 6: They've also been good on the road. I could see splitting 1 and 2, Boston taking both in Dallas, Luka just wins game 5, and Boston comes in and takes game 6.
I think if it goes 7, Dallas wins.
Handicapping in order of most to least likely:
1. Boston in 6
2. Boston in 5
3. Dallas in 7
4. Dallas in 6
5. Boston in 4
Those are my top five outcomes. I think Boston is around a 60/40 favorite overall to me - and can't mention enough how much I think KP health and in-the flow matter. I'm making all of these predictions on the assumption that he's the same guy he was all regular season for Boston.
ETA: I think -225 implied like a 70% win chance for Boston? So I'm rosier on the Mavs chances than the market, but not by much.
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