2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (1 Viewer)

[msudaisy26]

Regular shooting luck and this is 1-1

OK

Those 15 to 20 wide open 3's Boston missed don't count.

 

[Instinctive]

Regular shooting luck and this is 1-1

OK

3 points on the 3-pt shooting, net
5 points on FT shooting, net
7 point game

Obviously there's more to it (actually bigger if you include shot quality and other 2s). But that would clearly have made a difference.

 

[Capella]

Btw is there a clean explanation as to why the finals are presented by YouTube tv and also on abc?

Money

 

[Anarchy99]

Derrick White sort of confirmed what I was thinking. After the game, he mentioned that the pace and motion offense the Pacers ran was incredibly tough to deal with and defend. Everyone had to read and react at lightning speed and communicate constantly. While he didn’t come out and say it, the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

 

[Instinctive]

Kyrie super bad game again too.

I don't think it's a hot take, but after two games I still feel exactly like I did going in. Boston is clearly better, and they're also beatable. You can't make a bunch of mistakes and win though.

 

[identikit]

Man. Gave one away. Kyrie horrible through two games. Regular shooting luck and this is 1-1. Tough spot, really need to win the next 3 probably to have a chance. Defense showed up, ball movement was back. Kyrie 0-8 from 3 in two games. And not exactly tough looks.

I thought their ball movement was pretty crappy overall.

Lots of/too many Kyrie-centric possessions, even if he was having a better shooting game

The other guys need to be involved so as to have even a glimmer of hope, imo

 

[Bossman]

Tatum sucks.

Must be a nice feeling for Tatum knowing he doesn't have to carry this team on his back every night like Doncic does.
If Doncic has a game like that the Celtics would win by 40.

 

[Anarchy99]

Combined game scores after 2 games . . .

Doncic 21.9
Holiday 21.0
Brown 18.2
White 13.9
Porzingas 13.9
Washington 11.5
Gafford 11.5
Tatum 11.0
Horford 9.6
Jones 6.7
Hardy 5.1
Irving 4.5
Kornet 3.0
Hauser 2.8
Mykhailuk 1.7
Exum 1.5
Green 1.3
Lively 0.9
Pritchard 0.4
Brissett 0.0
Hardaway -0.4
Powell -0.4
Kleber - 1.3

 

[the moops]

The Jrue and White backcourt is such a menace. Just so hard to get into stuff when those two are on. Favorite play of the game right here

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[Anarchy99]

Regular season / R1 / R2 / R3 / Finals

BOS
True Shooting% - .609 / .596 / .604 / .600 / .579
3P% - .388 / .385 / .368 / .349 / .321
FT% - .807 / .757 / .841 / .800 / .821

DAL
True Shooting% - .592 / 571 / .558 / .613 / .511
3P% - .369 / .335 / .397 / .386 / .245
FT% - .758 / .726 / .664 / .807 / .651

 

[identikit]

The NBA Finals, so far:

Boston 2 wins, Dallas 0 wins

 

[Jayrod]

Regular season / R1 / R2 / R3 / Finals

BOS
True Shooting% - .609 / .596 / .604 / .600 / .579
3P% - .388 / .385 / .368 / .349 / .321
FT% - .807 / .757 / .841 / .800 / .821

DAL
True Shooting% - .592 / 571 / .558 / .613 / .511
3P% - .369 / .335 / .397 / .386 / .245
FT% - .758 / .726 / .664 / .807 / .651

Defensively RS / R1 / R2 / R3 / Finals
BOS
TS% .550 / .533 / .552 / .585 / .511
3P% .352 / .329 / .346 / .339 / .245

DAL
TS% .579 / .547 / .548 / .560 / .579
3P% .368 / .374 / .335 / .361 / .321

 

[Jayrod]

The Jrue and White backcourt is such a menace. Just so hard to get into stuff when those two are on. Favorite play of the game right here

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

That series of plays is the epitome of Jrue Holiday. He pressures in the backcourt which leads to a steal. Gets the ball, gives it up, gets it back and makes an open 3. Then contests Kyrie's shot who misses. Then gets the offensive rebound on Tatum's hilarious dunk attempt and drives and kicks for a wide open 3.

He has 2 good defensive plays that don't generate any stats for himself but gets 3 pts a rebound and an assist.

Winning plays when it matters most.

 

[Anarchy99]

Kyrie in the next game following two games scoring less than 20 points over his playoff career:

2019 (on BOS) - 26 vs. MIL
2021 (on BRK) - 39 vs. BOS
2022 (on BRK) - 20 vs. BOS
2024 (on DAL) - 22 vs. OKC
AVG: 26.8

Tatum after a playoff game shooting less than 30% (since 2020):

2020 - 24 vs. TOR
2021 - 50 vs. BRK
2022 - 31 vs. MIA
2022 - 28 vs. GSW
2023 - 27 vs. PHI
2023 - 51 vs. PHI
AVG: 35.2

 

[identikit]

Derrick White sort of confirmed what I was thinking. After the game, he mentioned that the pace and motion offense the Pacers ran was incredibly tough to deal with and defend. Everyone had to read and react at lightning speed and communicate constantly. While he didn’t come out and say it, the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

This information is more telling about this Finals than just about any scraped-together stats/numbers

 

[GroveDiesel]

Derrick White sort of confirmed what I was thinking. After the game, he mentioned that the pace and motion offense the Pacers ran was incredibly tough to deal with and defend. Everyone had to read and react at lightning speed and communicate constantly. While he didn’t come out and say it, the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

This information is more telling about this Finals than just about any scraped-together stats/numbers

Probably true, but Porzingas being back probably also makes a difference as well. Though I think the Pacers would have made him struggle a bit with the pace.

The discourse on Tatum is dumb. He does a lot of things really well, not just score. He had 9 assists last night when there was still 9 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Even if he isn’t shooting well, he still makes the team better by being out there on both ends of the court. The Celtics are just a very good deep team that plays really really well as a team. The way they position themselves both on defense and when rebounds go up is really impressive. When first watching them it just feels like they get lucky over and over again with rebounds bouncing directly out to guys, but with it happening so consistently l, you realize that they’re just smarter than everyone else and have positioned themselves better than their opponents. That takes team effort and trust in your teammates to be where they’re supposed to be.

 

[identikit]

Derrick White sort of confirmed what I was thinking. After the game, he mentioned that the pace and motion offense the Pacers ran was incredibly tough to deal with and defend. Everyone had to read and react at lightning speed and communicate constantly. While he didn’t come out and say it, the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

This information is more telling about this Finals than just about any scraped-together stats/numbers

Probably true, but Porzingas being back probably also makes a difference as well. Though I think the Pacers would have made him struggle a bit with the pace.

Sure Porzingis helped/helps, but their overall team discipline doesn't hinge on him.

I'm fairly sure the Celtics would be up 2-0 without him playing as well...

 

[trader jake]

I am sure part of it is the injuries, but Luka can't stay in front of anyone right now. They should just keep going at him.

Luka's defense is really poor right now. Maybe it's the injuries, but his lack of effort at times on that side of the ball is appalling.

Speaking of Jrue, did he go to summer defense camps halfway through his career? First 8 years, 0 all defense selections. Last 7 years, 6 all defense selections.

Jrue is so fun to watch. Just love his game, effort, and everything he seems to be about.

crazy seeing in plain view which guys cannot be on the floor in NBA playoff games

the possibilities go from regular season 8-9 guys, to like 2-3 at this point.

This. There are 82 game players and there are 16 game players. Which group players are in is what building a playoff team should be all about. The Celtics just have more of those 16 game players in this series.

 

[mr. furley]

the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

looks pretty clear

i don't recall precisely which possession it was last night before someone other than the Mavs ball handler moved on offense but it certainly wasn't any of the first handful. they looked lethargic from the first possession. everyone just stands around watching.

maybe it was the 4th or 5th time down the court, when Luka crossed half court with the ball they ran two guys from the left side of the court to the right.. and that was the extent of the motion.

dribble, dribble, dribble, shot or pass to someone standing completely stock still with no cutters.

they killed Minnesota with rim running off double teams. Boston isn't giving them that option and it looks like Kidd has no idea how to adjuist... so far.

 

[trader jake]

Man. Gave one away. Kyrie horrible through two games. Regular shooting luck and this is 1-1. Tough spot, really need to win the next 3 probably to have a chance. Defense showed up, ball movement was back. Kyrie 0-8 from 3 in two games. And not exactly tough looks.

Playoff matchups are so key. The Mavs faced some wildly different teams along their path through the West. What they didn't face was a backcourt with the defensive chops that Boston has though, and Kyrie just hasn't been good enough.

He seems engaged on defense, but hasn't been great. He swipes too often and gets in bad positions. On offense he hasn't led effective minutes when Luka's been on the bench, hasn't delivered when the ball swings his way, and he seems content to "show off his skills" too often when he feels he has a matchup.

The drive and lefty flip is especially hysterical. It's not a good shot, he isn't shooting it efficiently, and yet fans and commentators swoon when Kyrie does hit it. Great, it'll look good on highlights, but should be shelved unless absolutely needed.

 

[Anarchy99]

the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

looks pretty clear

i don't recall precisely which possession it was last night before someone other than the Mavs ball handler moved on offense but it certainly wasn't any of the first handful. they looked lethargic from the first possession. everyone just stands around watching.

maybe it was the 4th or 5th time down the court, when Luka crossed half court with the ball they ran two guys from the left side of the court to the right.. and that was the extent of the motion.

dribble, dribble, dribble, shot or pass to someone standing completely stock still with no cutters.

they killed Minnesota with rim running off double teams. Boston isn't giving them that option and it looks like Kidd has no idea how to adjuist... so far.

As I see it, Boston is making Luka play hard every second he's on the court. He has to defend and move a lot defensively, and they've been picking him up in the back court on offense. By the second half, he's so tired that the only real breather he gets is when he walks the ball up the court and whittles down the shot clock. When he finally makes his move, if he decides to kick the ball out, there's only time for a catch and shoot on the shot clock. They don't have time to make another pass (not that anyone is open anyway because BOS doesn't usually double cover Luka and the other 3 players are standing around and watching). Boston defenders have to love that, as they can hold their ground and not exert themselves guarding the other guy (who haven't done much even if they do get the ball). We'll see if the game script flips playing in Dallas, but so far Boston has had more left in the tank later in games than the Mavs have. Again, Boston held serve in their building. That's what was supposed to happen. Let's see if Dallas can defend their home turf.

 

[Instinctive]

the inferrence was the Mavs are a lot easier to defend and they don’t move the ball all that much.

looks pretty clear

i don't recall precisely which possession it was last night before someone other than the Mavs ball handler moved on offense but it certainly wasn't any of the first handful. they looked lethargic from the first possession. everyone just stands around watching.

maybe it was the 4th or 5th time down the court, when Luka crossed half court with the ball they ran two guys from the left side of the court to the right.. and that was the extent of the motion.

dribble, dribble, dribble, shot or pass to someone standing completely stock still with no cutters.

they killed Minnesota with rim running off double teams. Boston isn't giving them that option and it looks like Kidd has no idea how to adjuist... so far.

As I see it, Boston is making Luka play hard every second he's on the court. He has to defend and move a lot defensively, and they've been picking him up in the back court on offense. By the second half, he's so tired that the only real breather he gets is when he walks the ball up the court and whittles down the shot clock. When he finally makes his move, if he decides to kick the ball out, there's only time for a catch and shoot on the shot clock. They don't have time to make another pass (not that anyone is open anyway because BOS doesn't usually double cover Luka and the other 3 players are standing around and watching). Boston defenders have to love that, as they can hold their ground and not exert themselves guarding the other guy (who haven't done much even if they do get the ball). We'll see if the game script flips playing in Dallas, but so far Boston has had more left in the tank later in games than the Mavs have. Again, Boston held serve in their building. That's what was supposed to happen. Let's see if Dallas can defend their home turf.

And he is injured.

 

[identikit]

And he is injured.

*

 

[Anarchy99]

Kyrie super bad game again too.

I don't think it's a hot take, but after two games I still feel exactly like I did going in. Boston is clearly better, and they're also beatable. You can't make a bunch of mistakes and win though.

We still have a long way to go, but Boston so far this season under very defined circumstances has been beatable . . . for a game (maybe two). They've essentially won 4 out of every 5 games all season . . . I'm not even sure if they've lost 4 games in a month (let alone 4 games out of 5). If Boston shoots well (67-7 when making 33.3% of 3PA in a game this year) or play clamp down defense (27-0 allowing 100 or fewer points), few teams will beat them. Opponents usually shot really well and made a lot of threes while Boston shot poorly in the majority of games that they've lost this season. Maybe the Mavs will figure it out, but they are running out of games to do that in.

I know you aren't a big stat guy, but the 5 other times BOS shot 25% 3PM in a game this season (rounding down so 25.9% counts as 25%), the following game they made an average of 17.6 3PM at a 41% clip, going 5-0 with a +18-point margin of victory. To cover both sides, when DAL has shot 25% 3PM in a game this season, the following game they made an average of 12.6 3PM at a 37% clip, going 6-5 with a +2.4-point margin of victory. AGain, we will see what happens when they go back to the drawing board and get some home cooking.

 

[the moops]

He does a lot of things really well, not just score.

Over the past two game yes, but Tatum most assuredly is very good at scoring points. Over the past 4 years he has scored the 8th, 1st, 4th, 9th and 13th most points in the regular season. In the playoffs those same years 5th, 3rd, 1st, 39th, 6th.

 

[the moops]

They've essentially won 4 out of every 5 games all season . . . I'm not even sure if they've lost 4 games in a month (let alone 4 games out of 5).

They have only lost back to back games 4 times this season. Never more than 2 in a row

 

[Instinctive]

Kyrie super bad game again too.

I don't think it's a hot take, but after two games I still feel exactly like I did going in. Boston is clearly better, and they're also beatable. You can't make a bunch of mistakes and win though.

We still have a long way to go, but Boston so far this season under very defined circumstances has been beatable . . . for a game (maybe two). They've essentially won 4 out of every 5 games all season . . . I'm not even sure if they've lost 4 games in a month (let alone 4 games out of 5). If Boston shoots well (67-7 when making 33.3% of 3PA in a game this year) or play clamp down defense (27-0 allowing 100 or fewer points), few teams will beat them. Opponents usually shot really well and made a lot of threes while Boston shot poorly in the majority of games that they've lost this season. Maybe the Mavs will figure it out, but they are running out of games to do that in.

I know you aren't a big stat guy, but the 5 other times BOS shot 25% 3PM in a game this season (rounding down so 25.9% counts as 25%), the following game they made an average of 17.6 3PM at a 41% clip, going 5-0 with a +18-point margin of victory. To cover both sides, when DAL has shot 25% 3PM in a game this season, the following game they made an average of 12.6 3PM at a 37% clip, going 6-5 with a +2.4-point margin of victory. AGain, we will see what happens when they go back to the drawing board and get some home cooking.

1. I'm not a big stat guy? Idk where that came from lol. Love stats. Just also like to provide useful context and spend time deriving insights from ones that aren't dumb. Like stats about how if you don't let the opponent score, you usually win. Duh. Not super insightful.

2. I think there's maybe a 10% chance Dallas wins, at best, at this point. Would take a LOT to go right - they needed game 2 and blew it.

3. None of this should be surprising people. Even I, the person i think was most accurately most high on Dallas before the postseason, predicted Boston in 5 over Dallas before the playoffs, and I think I previously said right before game I that I thought the most likely outcome might be Boston in 6.

 

[Anarchy99]

They've essentially won 4 out of every 5 games all season . . . I'm not even sure if they've lost 4 games in a month (let alone 4 games out of 5).

They have only lost back to back games 4 times this season. Never more than 2 in a row

Until they actually win, I take the stance that it's not impossible for them to still lose. Apparently, I am not alone in that regard, as I heard a discussion on Boston sports talk radio yesterday (again) discussing the dominoes that will end up falling if they lose the series. Mazzulla would be out. Tatum would not get his max deal or Brown would have to go, they might not extend White, and that they need to move heaven and earth to acquire a true ice-in-his-veins closer (because they clearly don't have one). Seriously, they were talking about blowing up the team. I don't think they are going to lose the series, but that was a bit premature and overly negative given how they have played all season.

 

[Bossman]

People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.

 

[the moops]

3 points on the 3-pt shooting, net
5 points on FT shooting, net
7 point game

What are the fancy three point expected stats you are looking at? Simple take here from me, but...

Boston shot 38.8% on threes this season. They shot 25.6% last night. Instead of 10-39, we would expect them to go 15-39, for an additional 15 points.

Dallas shot 36.9% on threes this season. They shot 23.1% last night. Instead of 6-26, we would expect them to go 9.5/26, for an additional 10.5 points.

 

[Capella]

People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.

Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.

 

[Anarchy99]

IIRC, BOS is an underdog in Game 3 for just the 4th time this season (-1.5). Can't find a link, but I believe I heard that somewhere.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.

Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.

I disagree. I think Minnesota and Denver would have both given Boston a run for their money. The league effectively screwed Minnesota over by breathing life into the Nuggets by not suspending Murray for a game. Murray was the reason why Denver won game 3 and kept them alive in the series. Without him, Minnesota goes up 3-0 and most likely wins the series in 5 or 6 games. Instead, it went to 7 games, and that series became the emotional Super Bowl for the Wolves. That series tapped them out physically and emotionally—and Dallas did what they were supposed to—they took advantage of that. I’m not hating on Dallas—they won fair and square—and congrats to them and their fans—but I think that either Denver or Minnesota would be giving Boston a far better fight than what Dallas has done so far. Dallas just doesn’t have the depth offensively or defensively to really compete with Boston. Luka had basically a perfect first half in game 2–Boston was shooting pretty terrible from the 3point line—and yet—Dallas was still down.

 

[Anarchy99]

Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.

A lot of records get distorted from playing bottom tier teams. Here are the updated "standings" for all the teams that made the playoffs counting only their games against teams .500 or better (including the playoffs):

BOS 48-17 .738
OKC 39-24 .619 8 GB
MIN 41-27 .603 8.5 GB
DEN 35-27 .565 11.5 GB
IND 35-30 .538 13 GB
DAL 37-34 .521 14 GB
MIL 29-27 .518 14.5 GB
LAC 29-30 .492 16 GB
PHO 28-29 .491 16 GB
NOP 28-29 .491 16 GB
NYK 28-34 .452 18.5 GB
LAL 27-33 .450 18.5 GB
PHI 23-30 .434 19 GB
CLE 26-34 .433 19.5 GB
ORL 22-32 .407 20.5 GB
MIA 20-31 .392 21 GB

 

[msudaisy26]

People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.

Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.

I disagree. I think Minnesota and Denver would have both given Boston a run for their money. The league effectively screwed Minnesota over by breathing life into the Nuggets by not suspending Murray for a game. Murray was the reason why Denver won game 3 and kept them alive in the series. Without him, Minnesota goes up 3-0 and most likely wins the series in 5 or 6 games. Instead, it went to 7 games, and that series became the emotional Super Bowl for the Wolves. That series tapped them out physically and emotionally—and Dallas did what they were supposed to—they took advantage of that. I’m not hating on Dallas—they won fair and square—and congrats to them and their fans—but I think that either Denver or Minnesota would be giving Boston a far better fight than what Dallas has done so far. Dallas just doesn’t have the depth offensively or defensively to really compete with Boston. Luka had basically a perfect first half in game 2–Boston was shooting pretty terrible from the 3point line—and yet—Dallas was still down.

Even if the Twolves won in 5 games against the Nuggets they wouldn't have beaten the Mavs. You can't let Luka and Kyrie do whatever they want and give Gafford and Lively like 15 dunks a game. Did Lively even miss a shot that series?

 

[the moops]

IIRC, BOS is an underdog in Game 3 for just the 4th time this season (-1.5). Can't find a link, but I believe I heard that somewhere.

Surprised that they would be a dog in game 3

 

[Instinctive]

IIRC, BOS is an underdog in Game 3 for just the 4th time this season (-1.5). Can't find a link, but I believe I heard that somewhere.

Surprised that they would be a dog in game 3

Me too. They look better in every aspect of the game.

 

[Instinctive]

3 points on the 3-pt shooting, net
5 points on FT shooting, net
7 point game

What are the fancy three point expected stats you are looking at? Simple take here from me, but...

Boston shot 38.8% on threes this season. They shot 25.6% last night. Instead of 10-39, we would expect them to go 15-39, for an additional 15 points.

Dallas shot 36.9% on threes this season. They shot 23.1% last night. Instead of 6-26, we would expect them to go 9.5/26, for an additional 10.5 points.

I look at Shot quality expected points, based on shooter + location + defender location.

Which hasn't meant much. I think they had Dallas as 105-104 after game 1 on expected points. I thin it would imply 6 games still isn't a horrible prediction, but I'm leaning back to my original 5 right now.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Hurley told the Lakers no.

 

[Instinctive]

Hurley told the Lakers no.

Lowe has a funny quote from Auriemma on his pod post-game. Something about "Guess I should have got Cleveland to give me an offer before I re-signed" or the like. Basically implied Hurley used LA as a stalking horse with no intent to ever go there.

 

[Jayrod]

Hurley told the Lakers no.

Smart move. Would have been a terrible decision as has been an East Coast and college basketball guy his entire life. I'm sure it's flattering and the ego says yes, but anyone with a brain has to know the difficulty, pressure and stress that move would entail just isn't worth it.

 

[the moops]

3 points on the 3-pt shooting, net
5 points on FT shooting, net
7 point game

What are the fancy three point expected stats you are looking at? Simple take here from me, but...

Boston shot 38.8% on threes this season. They shot 25.6% last night. Instead of 10-39, we would expect them to go 15-39, for an additional 15 points.

Dallas shot 36.9% on threes this season. They shot 23.1% last night. Instead of 6-26, we would expect them to go 9.5/26, for an additional 10.5 points.

I look at Shot quality expected points, based on shooter + location + defender location.

Which hasn't meant much. I think they had Dallas as 105-104 after game 1 on expected points. I thin it would imply 6 games still isn't a horrible prediction, but I'm leaning back to my original 5 right now.

Yea anyone who watched game 1, in particular, and came away that it was just shot luck that resulted in Dallas getting trounced - well...

 

[thecatch]

Hurley told the Lakers no.

I was surprised that the offer was only 6/$70m. People were previously suggesting that it was a Godfather offer. That isn't even Monty Williams money.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Hurley told the Lakers no.

I was surprised that the offer was only 6/$70m. People were previously suggesting that it was a Godfather offer. That isn't even Monty Williams money.

I definitely thought it would be over $100MM

 

[Instinctive]

3 points on the 3-pt shooting, net
5 points on FT shooting, net
7 point game

What are the fancy three point expected stats you are looking at? Simple take here from me, but...

Boston shot 38.8% on threes this season. They shot 25.6% last night. Instead of 10-39, we would expect them to go 15-39, for an additional 15 points.

Dallas shot 36.9% on threes this season. They shot 23.1% last night. Instead of 6-26, we would expect them to go 9.5/26, for an additional 10.5 points.

I look at Shot quality expected points, based on shooter + location + defender location.

Which hasn't meant much. I think they had Dallas as 105-104 after game 1 on expected points. I thin it would imply 6 games still isn't a horrible prediction, but I'm leaning back to my original 5 right now.

Yea anyone who watched game 1, in particular, and came away that it was just shot luck that resulted in Dallas getting trounced - well...

That wasn't the conclusion (did someone say it was?). That was a stat (although apparently I don't like to use stats) showing that based on player shooting, shooting location, defender, and defender location, here's the expected value of points for each team. It actually is completely agnostic to having watched the game. Which is kind of the point.

Like I said earlier, stats need context. And no stat tells the whole story. But I have tended to find that shot quality stats are more predictive of future results than many others.

 

[msudaisy26]

3 points on the 3-pt shooting, net
5 points on FT shooting, net
7 point game

What are the fancy three point expected stats you are looking at? Simple take here from me, but...

Boston shot 38.8% on threes this season. They shot 25.6% last night. Instead of 10-39, we would expect them to go 15-39, for an additional 15 points.

Dallas shot 36.9% on threes this season. They shot 23.1% last night. Instead of 6-26, we would expect them to go 9.5/26, for an additional 10.5 points.

I look at Shot quality expected points, based on shooter + location + defender location.

Which hasn't meant much. I think they had Dallas as 105-104 after game 1 on expected points. I thin it would imply 6 games still isn't a horrible prediction, but I'm leaning back to my original 5 right now.

Yea anyone who watched game 1, in particular, and came away that it was just shot luck that resulted in Dallas getting trounced - well...

The same for game 2. I know you posted the Celtics 3 point fg percentage, but they missed so many wide open 3's and they probably make an even higher percent on the looks they missed in game 2. I bet on a normal shooting night they would have scored at least 20 more points.

 

[Bossman]

People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.

Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.

I think we had expected the east to come down to BOS vs MIL. Had BOS beat a healthy MIL team for the east title, and a healthy DEN team in the finals, people could consider them a great team. Now, they played who was in front of them and none were great so, meh.

 

[Jayrod]

People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.

Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.

I think we had expected the east to come down to BOS vs MIL. Had BOS beat a healthy MIL team for the east title, and a healthy DEN team in the finals, people could consider them a great team. Now, they played who was in front of them and none were great so, meh.

What if they sweep and win each game by double digits?

I think running roughshod over everyone for the entire season AND playoffs puts them pretty high up there.

 

[GroveDiesel]

He does a lot of things really well, not just score.

Over the past two game yes, but Tatum most assuredly is very good at scoring points. Over the past 4 years he has scored the 8th, 1st, 4th, 9th and 13th most points in the regular season. In the playoffs those same years 5th, 3rd, 1st, 39th, 6th.

Totally agree. I should have been more specific.

 

[Anarchy99]

But I have tended to find that shot quality stats are more predictive of future results than many others.

All we know is what actually happened in games. I've been seeing a bunch of folks (not you) suggesting that if DAL made more free throws and another 3PM they would have won. The problem with this type of logic is BOS would not be standing around trying to run out the clock if that happened, and they would have been much more inclined to keep their foot on the gas for a lot longer. As far as shot quality stuff, that doesn't change what actually happened. If that suggests how many open looks will be available in future games, then I guess there may be some value there.

The same for game 2. I know you posted the Celtics 3 point fg percentage, but this missed so many wide open 3's and they probably make an even higher percent on the looks they missed in game 2. I bet on a normal shooting night they would have scored at least 20 more points.

Boston made 38.5% of their #PA this year, so they would normally have made 15 instead of 10 in Game 2 (so +15 points).

What if they sweep and win each game by double digits?

Well, they can sweep, but they can't win all the games by double digits after Game 2.