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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (1 Viewer)

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But I have tended to find that shot quality stats are more predictive of future results than many others.
All we know is what actually happened in games. I've been seeing a bunch of folks (not you) suggesting that if DAL made more free throws and another 3PM they would have won. The problem with this type of logic is BOS would not be standing around trying to run out the clock if that happened, and they would have been much more inclined to keep their foot on the gas for a lot longer. As far as shot quality stuff, that doesn't change what actually happened. If that suggests how many open looks will be available in future games, then I guess there may be some value there.

Totally agree - did anyone say it changed the result? Whining about what could or should have happened in prior games is relatively meaningless to me. Wallow in the sadness and be frustrated for a bit, then focus on what is likely or possible to happen next. I'm always on the lookout for things which are predictive, both in sports and in my day to day life for clients.

"All we know is what actually happened" - put another way, what we know is how the offense and defenses played out to create opportunities. Those opportunities tend to be stickier than the results.

Another good, relevant to FBGs analogy, is that in general, targets + yardage tend to be more predictive of next season's TD totals than this season's TD totals were. a plethora of Red zone targets through week 8 tend to be more predictive of a receiver's TD chance in week 9 than the fact that they have no TDs through 8 weeks. Would you look at that and say "all we know if what actually happened, this guy doesn't score TDs" or would you want to take the closer look?


Part of what makes sports amazing is that in the moment, a guy like Dame can hit a 35 footer over Paul George's hand in his face to win the game. I'd still predict that shot isn't going in the next time. Doesn't mean it didn't go in when it mattered though! The entire appeal of sports is guys doing the unlikely, achieving in spite of the odds, etc.
 
People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.
Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.
I think we had expected the east to come down to BOS vs MIL. Had BOS beat a healthy MIL team for the east title, and a healthy DEN team in the finals, people could consider them a great team. Now, they played who was in front of them and none were great so, meh.
What if they sweep and win each game by double digits?

I think running roughshod over everyone for the entire season AND playoffs puts them pretty high up there.
yeah I don't get the Boston hate. They've been a phenomenal team all year. They're likely to be NBA champions. They have an outstanding 1-5 starting lineup. It's just the weird Boston media fetish with hating themselves that's throwing stuff off.
 
Does anyone else think hiring JJ Redick would be a terrible idea for the Lakers? Or are they just looking for a personality and Lebron is the coach? If that is the case, why not go the Bill Russell route, and have Lebron officially be player/coach? If he won, that would be something he could tout over Jordan.
 
I guess everyone will have a different assessment and expectation of each game based on what happened on the court. In Game 2, the highest win probability for DAL was when they were ahead 35-29 just 2 minutes into the second quarter (57%) according to ESPN Analytics. The Celtics were at 85% to win pretty much the entire 4Q. In Game 1, the Mavs never had a majority stake in win probability, and when they closed to 8 points in the 3Q, BOS was still 83% to win. The point being, in the two games so far, Boston really wasn't pushed that hard (which certainly could change moving forward) and could have adapted had things worked out differently.

There really isn't much value in dissecting each game to try to change the outcome if things played out differently. The outcome is the outcome. All we can do is try to figure out how the teams can make adjustments to impact the next game. That starts with a team trying to make more shots than they did previously while allowing fewer points, which sounds easy but usually is much harder than it sounds.
 
UConn offering 6/50 extension

Lakers easy turn down at 6/70. Frankly don't think it's even a good offer for arguably the best coach in basketball period right now and a dumpster fire situation in LA.

Potentially coach Lebron and get fired. Hooray!
 
Hurley told the Lakers no.
I was surprised that the offer was only 6/$70m. People were previously suggesting that it was a Godfather offer. That isn't even Monty Williams money.

I definitely thought it would be over $100MM
didn't one of the usual NBA twitter news breakers throw out that he was offered $100mm guaranteed??
Yep, that was the number being bounced around
 
People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.
Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.
I disagree. I think Minnesota and Denver would have both given Boston a run for their money. The league effectively screwed Minnesota over by breathing life into the Nuggets by not suspending Murray for a game. Murray was the reason why Denver won game 3 and kept them alive in the series. Without him, Minnesota goes up 3-0 and most likely wins the series in 5 or 6 games. Instead, it went to 7 games, and that series became the emotional Super Bowl for the Wolves. That series tapped them out physically and emotionally—and Dallas did what they were supposed to—they took advantage of that. I’m not hating on Dallas—they won fair and square—and congrats to them and their fans—but I think that either Denver or Minnesota would be giving Boston a far better fight than what Dallas has done so far. Dallas just doesn’t have the depth offensively or defensively to really compete with Boston. Luka had basically a perfect first half in game 2–Boston was shooting pretty terrible from the 3point line—and yet—Dallas was still down.

Even if the Twolves won in 5 games against the Nuggets they wouldn't have beaten the Mavs. You can't let Luka and Kyrie do whatever they want and give Gafford and Lively like 15 dunks a game. Did Lively even miss a shot that series?
We can agree to disagree. I think that Ant and Kat were spent after the Denver series. They both looked very low energy the first few games of the Dallas series and the Mavs immediately went up 3-0. Minnesota was expending energy and playing seven games, while a bruised and battered Luka had a few extra days for needed rest and recovery. Again—not taking anything away from the Mavs—but I personally think the Wolves/Mavs series goes completely differently if Minnesota wins in 5. The Wolves went from feeling like they were invincible sweeping the Suns, taking two on the road at Denver—and then immediately felt like they were on the brink when they went down 3-2. That toasted them emotionally and physically imo.
 
People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.
Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.
I disagree. I think Minnesota and Denver would have both given Boston a run for their money. The league effectively screwed Minnesota over by breathing life into the Nuggets by not suspending Murray for a game. Murray was the reason why Denver won game 3 and kept them alive in the series. Without him, Minnesota goes up 3-0 and most likely wins the series in 5 or 6 games. Instead, it went to 7 games, and that series became the emotional Super Bowl for the Wolves. That series tapped them out physically and emotionally—and Dallas did what they were supposed to—they took advantage of that. I’m not hating on Dallas—they won fair and square—and congrats to them and their fans—but I think that either Denver or Minnesota would be giving Boston a far better fight than what Dallas has done so far. Dallas just doesn’t have the depth offensively or defensively to really compete with Boston. Luka had basically a perfect first half in game 2–Boston was shooting pretty terrible from the 3point line—and yet—Dallas was still down.

Even if the Twolves won in 5 games against the Nuggets they wouldn't have beaten the Mavs. You can't let Luka and Kyrie do whatever they want and give Gafford and Lively like 15 dunks a game. Did Lively even miss a shot that series?
We can agree to disagree. I think that Ant and Kat were spent after the Denver series. They both looked very low energy the first few games of the Dallas series and the Mavs immediately went up 3-0. Minnesota was expending energy and playing seven games, while a bruised and battered Luka had a few extra days for needed rest and recovery. Again—not taking anything away from the Mavs—but I personally think the Wolves/Mavs series goes completely differently if Minnesota wins in 5. The Wolves went from feeling like they were invincible sweeping the Suns, taking two on the road at Denver—and then immediately felt like they were on the brink when they went down 3-2. That toasted them emotionally and physically imo.
Both things can be true. They were certainly emotionally and physically spent after the Nuggets series, and they also couldn't figure out what to do defensively against the Mavs.

In the west, the playoffs were all about matchup this year. I still think the best team was the Nuggets probably followed by the TWolves, Dallas, then OKC.
 
People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.
Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.
I disagree. I think Minnesota and Denver would have both given Boston a run for their money. The league effectively screwed Minnesota over by breathing life into the Nuggets by not suspending Murray for a game. Murray was the reason why Denver won game 3 and kept them alive in the series. Without him, Minnesota goes up 3-0 and most likely wins the series in 5 or 6 games. Instead, it went to 7 games, and that series became the emotional Super Bowl for the Wolves. That series tapped them out physically and emotionally—and Dallas did what they were supposed to—they took advantage of that. I’m not hating on Dallas—they won fair and square—and congrats to them and their fans—but I think that either Denver or Minnesota would be giving Boston a far better fight than what Dallas has done so far. Dallas just doesn’t have the depth offensively or defensively to really compete with Boston. Luka had basically a perfect first half in game 2–Boston was shooting pretty terrible from the 3point line—and yet—Dallas was still down.

Even if the Twolves won in 5 games against the Nuggets they wouldn't have beaten the Mavs. You can't let Luka and Kyrie do whatever they want and give Gafford and Lively like 15 dunks a game. Did Lively even miss a shot that series?
We can agree to disagree. I think that Ant and Kat were spent after the Denver series. They both looked very low energy the first few games of the Dallas series and the Mavs immediately went up 3-0. Minnesota was expending energy and playing seven games, while a bruised and battered Luka had a few extra days for needed rest and recovery. Again—not taking anything away from the Mavs—but I personally think the Wolves/Mavs series goes completely differently if Minnesota wins in 5. The Wolves went from feeling like they were invincible sweeping the Suns, taking two on the road at Denver—and then immediately felt like they were on the brink when they went down 3-2. That toasted them emotionally and physically imo.
Both things can be true. They were certainly emotionally and physically spent after the Nuggets series, and they also couldn't figure out what to do defensively against the Mavs.

In the west, the playoffs were all about matchup this year. I still think the best team was the Nuggets probably followed by the TWolves, Dallas, then OKC.
Also Dallas finished against OKC on May 18th.
Minnesota finished against Denver on May 19th.

Game 1 WCF was May 22nd.


Given how the entire week+ off for the Finals hasn't seemed to really help Luka much, I'm not sure we can blame Minnesota's losing the WCF on 24 hours of rest difference when each team already got 3 days. If 3 days isn't enough for a 22 year-old to feel physically and mentally recovered, expending all that crazy energy, then idk how much rest would be needed but the 5 extra days from finishing in five games probably isn't the difference maker.
 
People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.
Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.
I think we had expected the east to come down to BOS vs MIL. Had BOS beat a healthy MIL team for the east title, and a healthy DEN team in the finals, people could consider them a great team. Now, they played who was in front of them and none were great so, meh.
What if they sweep and win each game by double digits?

I think running roughshod over everyone for the entire season AND playoffs puts them pretty high up there.
yeah I don't get the Boston hate. They've been a phenomenal team all year. They're likely to be NBA champions. They have an outstanding 1-5 starting lineup. It's just the weird Boston media fetish with hating themselves that's throwing stuff off.

The Boston media has a tendency to go to the extremes be it positive or negative (many fans are like this as well)...right now it definitely leans more negative...many are now in the habit of grading everything against excellence and since that is almost impossible to achieve it gives them plenty of ammo to piss and moan even when a team is winning (like the Celtics right now)...this is most common on talk radio where the top show in town (Felger and Mazz) is based on negativity...the print/electronic media definitely tends to be more level-headed...Dennis Eckersley had the best quote about Boston when he said it is the best place to play when you are winning and the worst place to play when you are losing...one thing that has changed is that with all the titles the past 25 years expectations can be very unrealistic and just being good is not good enough for some.
 
People talking about what an easy road to the finals it has been for the Celtics this year...
So far, DAL putting up less resistance than MIA Heat did vs the Celtics.
As I watched these last two games, leaves me wondering, this is the best team in the West?
Either the entire league is weak this year or the Celtics are much better than people give them credit for.
Maybe we see the Celtics without Porzinglass the next game. He was gimpy to end that game last night. That would help even things up.
Nah Denver losing screwed us out of a potentially great Finals but that’s the way it goes. Celtics are pretty clearly several steps ahead of every other team in the league.
I think we had expected the east to come down to BOS vs MIL. Had BOS beat a healthy MIL team for the east title, and a healthy DEN team in the finals, people could consider them a great team. Now, they played who was in front of them and none were great so, meh.
What if they sweep and win each game by double digits?

I think running roughshod over everyone for the entire season AND playoffs puts them pretty high up there.
yeah I don't get the Boston hate. They've been a phenomenal team all year. They're likely to be NBA champions. They have an outstanding 1-5 starting lineup. It's just the weird Boston media fetish with hating themselves that's throwing stuff off.

The Boston media has a tendency to go to the extremes be it positive or negative (many fans are like this as well)...right now it definitely leans more negative...many are now in the habit of grading everything against excellence and since that is almost impossible to achieve it gives them plenty of ammo to piss and moan even when a team is winning (like the Celtics right now)...this is most common on talk radio where the top show in town (Felger and Mazz) is based on negativity...the print/electronic media definitely tends to be more level-headed...Dennis Eckersley had the best quote about Boston when he said it is the best place to play when you are winning and the worst place to play when you are losing...one thing that has changed is that with all the titles the past 25 years expectations can be very unrealistic and just being good is not good enough for some.
Yeah I'm just hyped Dallas has had a great couple years of a GM who has a plan and executes well and they actually delivered the potential and won the West.
 
Does anyone else think hiring JJ Redick would be a terrible idea for the Lakers? Or are they just looking for a personality and Lebron is the coach? If that is the case, why not go the Bill Russell route, and have Lebron officially be player/coach? If he won, that would be something he could tout over Jordan.
Pretty sure that player/coaches are no longer allowed.

I don’t know that anyone thinks that hiring JJ reddick would be a good idea.
 
Coaching NBA is a cake compared to college.
Does anyone else think hiring JJ Redick would be a terrible idea for the Lakers? Or are they just looking for a personality and Lebron is the coach? If that is the case, why not go the Bill Russell route, and have Lebron officially be player/coach? If he won, that would be something he could tout over Jordan.
Pretty sure that player/coaches are no longer allowed.

I don’t know that anyone thinks that hiring JJ reddick would be a good idea.
JJ knows his stuff and has a good relationship with Lebron. Not that anyone cares what I think, but why the hell not? They have had the experienced vet in Vogel, the player coach in Ham, the young up and comer in Walton. Why not the analytical knows what he is talking about guy in JJ :shrug:
 
And yes, player coaches are prohibited in the CBA. Makes sense so you can't pay a player (Lebron in this case) the minimum but pay the coach (also Lebron) 10's of millions
 
Porzingis has torn his whatchamacallit on his thingamijig and is day-to-day though it seems somewhat serious.

That could be a huge difference in the series if he cannot go. Obviously the Celtics are still really good and in a commanding position, but Porzingis changes the geometry of the court on both ends in a way that makes it almost impossible to consistently scheme against. This would give some more options for positioning and rotations on defense and potentially open up the lane more for Luka and the lob threats.
 
No KP.

Makes giving away Game 2 so much worse. Dallas would be super well positioned at 1-1.

If they can go back to Boston 2-2, this gets really interesting.

I think I still lean Boston in 5 or 6. But I would love to win game 3 and get to go to an awesome game 4 rather than going to a game down 3-0 :(
 
I don’t think the Mavs can win the series even if KP is out but maybe it’ll be competitive now? A 7-game series may be the only thing that can save these dreadful playoffs.
 
Another stat that likely doesn't mean much. With 2 or more days off before a game this season, Boston is 21-3. Dallas is 14-10.

As far as KP being out, as a reminder, they fared fine without him. 48-15 with a +11.4 net rating when he played, 30-5 with a +12.0 net rating when he didn't. It's clearly a significant loss should he be out, but they certainly are used to playing without him. Not sure how serious it is, as he hasn't been ruled out for Game 3.
 
Maybe without Porzin-glass these games will be a little more competitive.
It won't matter a tick tho if BOS is hitting 3's and playing solid defense.
 
KP seen various times today walking normally without a boot or crutches and wearing an ankle brace. No limping, no wincing, no grimacing, no anything. Shams mentioned on a podcast that he landed on a player's foot and rolled his left ankle awkwardly in practice leading up to Game 1 (the ankle that has the injury . . . the calf injury was in his right leg). I am not 100% convinced the injury is from Game 2 (may have tweaked it in the game though).

I expect they will play Horford with Luka in the game and take him out when Doncic sits (which last game was 10 minutes). Oddly enough, this post-season Kornet has played well and has been very efficient (.238 WS/48 vs. .228 WS/48 for Porzingis). Kornet has had a 145 offensive rating with a 108 defensive rating with 16.8/17.2/2.2/0.4/2.2 per 100 possessions in the post season. Not remotely suggesting that Kornet is a good option, but he's been good in limited doses.

Speaking of Luka, he got an injection for pain today and is expected to receive another one before the game tomorrow.
 
Porzingis has torn his whatchamacallit on his thingamijig and is day-to-day though it seems somewhat serious.

That could be a huge difference in the series if he cannot go. Obviously the Celtics are still really good and in a commanding position, but Porzingis changes the geometry of the court on both ends in a way that makes it almost impossible to consistently scheme against. This would give some more options for positioning and rotations on defense and potentially open up the lane more for Luka and the lob threats.
 

This Sports Medicine specialist explains what's going on with Porzingis. His opinion is KP's leg and ankle should be stable enough to play on it, and that he will likely try to play as soon as Game 3. He thinks it will be a pain tolerance issue but also suggests his productivity will likely be very limited. He also suggests that Porzingis will most likely need surgery in the offseason to make sure the tendon and the protective wrapping are aligned and wrapped properly. He's not treating Porzingis, but this is his general opinion for this type of injury.
 
JJ knows his stuff and has a good relationship with Lebron. Not that anyone cares what I think, but why the hell not? They have had the experienced vet in Vogel, the player coach in Ham, the young up and comer in Walton. Why not the analytical knows what he is talking about guy in JJ :shrug:
I agree with this take. Don't see why JJ Reddick would be any worse of a decision than any other option out there. Coaching in the NBA seems to be about being able to adjust gameplans and relating with the players...to me that would be Reddick's wheelhouse.
 
Makes giving away Game 2 so much worse.
Giving the game away :lmao:
Idk what else you'd describe a game when the superior team committed a crap load of turnovers and shot dramatically below their season average from three in which the sheer volume of FTs you missed compared to them more than accounted for the final scoring difference alone.

Boston played a C+ game. Dallas managed to play a C-. That's giving away an opportunity.
 
Makes giving away Game 2 so much worse.
Giving the game away :lmao:
Idk what else you'd describe a game when the superior team committed a crap load of turnovers and shot dramatically below their season average from three in which the sheer volume of FTs you missed compared to them more than accounted for the final scoring difference alone.

Boston played a C+ game. Dallas managed to play a C-. That's giving away an opportunity.
Boston had 10 turnovers in the game. They averaged 12 on the season. Dallas didn’t give the game away they just lost to a better team.
 
Makes giving away Game 2 so much worse.
Giving the game away :lmao:
Idk what else you'd describe a game when the superior team's best player committed a crap load of turnovers and shot dramatically below their season average from three in which the sheer volume of FTs you missed compared to them more than accounted for the final scoring difference alone.

Boston played a C+ game. Dallas managed to play a C-. That's giving away an opportunity.
Boston had 10 turnovers in the game. They averaged 12 on the season. Dallas didn’t give the game away they just lost to a better team.
Whatever you say man. If you don't think that was a game that a team hoping to beat Boston 4/7 dreams of and needs to win, they must be totally unbeatable in your mind.
 
The NBA Finals, so far:

Boston 2 wins, Dallas 0 wins
I mean, I get it.

If I watched a bunch of all stars who can't be bothered to run an offense, and wanna just dunk and shoot 3s all day, and if that doesn't work, they begrudgingly turn the ball over to their steady vet backcourt, and then casually go on a 12 point run, I would hate that team too.

You know, if I wasn't from Boston, I mean
 
The NBA Finals, so far:

Boston 2 wins, Dallas 0 wins
I mean, I get it.

If I watched a bunch of all stars who can't be bothered to run an offense, and wanna just dunk and shoot 3s all day, and if that doesn't work, they begrudgingly turn the ball over to their steady vet backcourt, and then casually go on a 12 point run, I would hate that team too.

You know, if I wasn't from Boston, I mean
Say what now?

They run all kinds of sets and actions just like every other team in the NBA. When the Warriors play like this everyone marvels at it. Boston is a tremendous offensive team that hunts the best shots possible and converts them at a high rate.
 
Boston is a tremendous offensive team that hunts the best shots possible and converts them at a high rate
When they need to. They are also happy to iso JB and Tatum, and everyone else stands around.

I think they play lazy ball a lot.

What's different about them is lazy teams don't usually play D, but the Celtics do. So they can withstand missing a bunch of 3s, and then their D sparks easy baskets.
 
I think they play lazy ball a lot.
They had the best offense in the history of the NBA. But yea, lazy :lmao:
That's how talented they are!!! :wink:
I will give you that at times they resort to ISO ball with Tatum and Brown. You know what though, every single team resorts to that sort of stuff on occasion
Every single team does it on purpose because when you only have 24 seconds to get a shot off and defenders can't hand check you, you can consistently get a good shot if you hunt mismatches and iso them on the wing or top of the key with your best one on one players.

There just isn't time to fun the flex motion until they make a mistake.
 
Makes giving away Game 2 so much worse.
Giving the game away :lmao:
Idk what else you'd describe a game when the superior team committed a crap load of turnovers and shot dramatically below their season average from three in which the sheer volume of FTs you missed compared to them more than accounted for the final scoring difference alone.

Boston played a C+ game. Dallas managed to play a C-. That's giving away an opportunity.

I submit that the Celts played A- defense.

That's what earned them the win.
 
You know what is a really dumb? The whole, well team A just held serve on their homecourt, we aren't worried...

Home teams that have gone up 2-0 have a 92.5% series win percentage in the playoffs. You really gotta win won of the first two
 
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