Instinctive
Footballguy
All we know is what actually happened in games. I've been seeing a bunch of folks (not you) suggesting that if DAL made more free throws and another 3PM they would have won. The problem with this type of logic is BOS would not be standing around trying to run out the clock if that happened, and they would have been much more inclined to keep their foot on the gas for a lot longer. As far as shot quality stuff, that doesn't change what actually happened. If that suggests how many open looks will be available in future games, then I guess there may be some value there.But I have tended to find that shot quality stats are more predictive of future results than many others.
Totally agree - did anyone say it changed the result? Whining about what could or should have happened in prior games is relatively meaningless to me. Wallow in the sadness and be frustrated for a bit, then focus on what is likely or possible to happen next. I'm always on the lookout for things which are predictive, both in sports and in my day to day life for clients.
"All we know is what actually happened" - put another way, what we know is how the offense and defenses played out to create opportunities. Those opportunities tend to be stickier than the results.
Another good, relevant to FBGs analogy, is that in general, targets + yardage tend to be more predictive of next season's TD totals than this season's TD totals were. a plethora of Red zone targets through week 8 tend to be more predictive of a receiver's TD chance in week 9 than the fact that they have no TDs through 8 weeks. Would you look at that and say "all we know if what actually happened, this guy doesn't score TDs" or would you want to take the closer look?
Part of what makes sports amazing is that in the moment, a guy like Dame can hit a 35 footer over Paul George's hand in his face to win the game. I'd still predict that shot isn't going in the next time. Doesn't mean it didn't go in when it mattered though! The entire appeal of sports is guys doing the unlikely, achieving in spite of the odds, etc.

