2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (4 Viewers)

[Snotbubbles]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

 

[Kev4029]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

 

[the moops]

Yea, i think we will see teams "go for it" for two years then reset. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown traded in 2025

 

[the moops]

FYI - the Jeff Teague podcast is some of the best content out there these days. That dude is funny as **** and has some great stories

https://twitter.com/Brotha2ThaNite/status/1682491042531033091?s=20

https://twitter.com/KiloBeatsOG/status/1683893064715075606?s=20

https://twitter.com/mrnotime_/status/1684011538141818880?s=20

 

[Capella]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

 

[the moops]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

Advanced metrics have never really liked him, not sure why.

He is clearly a top 30 player in the league though. Probably closer to 20 than 30 actually

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

Not really quoting Capella on purpose, just was looking for a Jaylen Brown comment in here.

Walked past TD Garden with my kids today. Son looks at me and says “do you think Jaylen is in there working on his left hand today?”

 

[Brunell4MVP]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

 

[Anarchy99]

Some of the banter and debate last night over Brown was interesting. One side was pushing the narrative that last year was going to end up as his career year and it's all downhill from here. The other side argued that he is not even in his prime yet and can still get better . . . especially with Smart out of the picture and better spacing with a different lineup. The more realistic perspective from last year was that JB played more minutes and took more shots than in other seasons, so that boosted his scoring average even with a lousy year shooting 3P. The glass is half full argument was that JB could get cleaner looks now and could make an extra three a game and then they would have two guys averaging 30 ppg. I still think they have a 2-year window to win a chip, and after that JB or KP will get moved.

 

[Mrs. Rannous]

I probably should have mentioned this before, but I love the title of this folder. (I live in Houston.)

 

[Kev4029]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

Players get a fixed percentage of league revenue (51%, I think), so the only two ways to drive down their earnings are for the owners to take a higher percentage (which won't happen any time soon as everybody is making money right now), or for revenue to fall. Blaming ballooning costs in multi billion dollar business on the employees is an asinine take.

 

[Navin Johnson]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

Not really quoting Capella on purpose, just was looking for a Jaylen Brown comment in here.

Walked past TD Garden with my kids today. Son looks at me and says “do you think Jaylen is in there working on his left hand today?”

Like my old college coach used to say..."If you cut off his right arm he'd dribble with his head."

 

[Tau837]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

Players get a fixed percentage of league revenue (51%, I think), so the only two ways to drive down their earnings are for the owners to take a higher percentage (which won't happen any time soon as everybody is making money right now), or for revenue to fall. Blaming ballooning costs in multi billion dollar business on the employees is an asinine take.

While your point might be valid, you don't need to be a jerk about it.

What I would say is that the costs of tickets, parking, concessions, jerseys, etc. all fall into a market. They are priced at what the market will bear. When people stop going to games and buying jerseys en masse... and paying for cable/satellite/streaming subscriptions to access sports and support the media fees the pro leagues get... prices might come down. As long as people are willing to pay, they won't.

Player contracts are an outcome of the revenue coming in to the NBA, not a driver.

 

[Anarchy99]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

Not really quoting Capella on purpose, just was looking for a Jaylen Brown comment in here.

Walked past TD Garden with my kids today. Son looks at me and says “do you think Jaylen is in there working on his left hand today?”

Like my old college coach used to say..."If you cut off his right arm he'd dribble with his head."

When my son used to play, coaches always preached that defenders needed to make kids dribble with and go to their left. My son dribbled better with his left hand, had freakishly long arms, and would blow by people with his left hand for dunks all the time. Defenders were so out of position that it was a regular thing. But apparently unlike Jaylen Brown, he worked on his handle every day dribbling with both hands.

 

[thecatch]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

Players get a fixed percentage of league revenue (51%, I think), so the only two ways to drive down their earnings are for the owners to take a higher percentage (which won't happen any time soon as everybody is making money right now), or for revenue to fall. Blaming ballooning costs in multi billion dollar business on the employees is an asinine take.

While your point might be valid, you don't need to be a jerk about it.

What I would say is that the costs of tickets, parking, concessions, jerseys, etc. all fall into a market. They are priced at what the market will bear. When people stop going to games and buying jerseys en masse... and paying for cable/satellite/streaming subscriptions to access sports and support the media fees the pro leagues get... prices might come down. As long as people are willing to pay, they won't.

Player contracts are an outcome of the revenue coming in to the NBA, not a driver.

These jumps in broadcast revenue and franchise valuations seem unsustainable in the long run. I do wonder if/when we’ll see revenue (and resulting cap) contractions. Most likely not anytime soon.

 

[the moops]

These Jaylen Brown takes are getting a bit ridiculous

He had a bad playoffs and a particularly bad series against MIA. he turned it over way too much, but man the left handed dribbling takes are bad

 

[Navin Johnson]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

Not really quoting Capella on purpose, just was looking for a Jaylen Brown comment in here.

Walked past TD Garden with my kids today. Son looks at me and says “do you think Jaylen is in there working on his left hand today?”

Like my old college coach used to say..."If you cut off his right arm he'd dribble with his head."

When my son used to play, coaches always preached that defenders needed to make kids dribble with and go to their left. My son dribbled better with his left hand, had freakishly long arms, and would blow by people with his left hand for dunks all the time. Defenders were so out of position that it was a regular thing. But apparently unlike Jaylen Brown, he worked on his handle every day dribbling with both hands.

From u10 up to even my first men's team I feel like I am always saying stay left from the bench. We spend a lot of time onhandles at all levels so it isn't a problem. The thought that a anyone playing in the league can't go to their weak hand is mind boggling to me. He is either lazy or just doesn't care.

 

[Navin Johnson]

These Jaylen Brown takes are getting a bit ridiculous

He had a bad playoffs and a particularly bad series against MIA. he turned it over way too much, but man the left handed dribbling takes are bad

Because they are on point?

 

[Navin Johnson]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

Players get a fixed percentage of league revenue (51%, I think), so the only two ways to drive down their earnings are for the owners to take a higher percentage (which won't happen any time soon as everybody is making money right now), or for revenue to fall. Blaming ballooning costs in multi billion dollar business on the employees is an asinine take.

While your point might be valid, you don't need to be a jerk about it.

What I would say is that the costs of tickets, parking, concessions, jerseys, etc. all fall into a market. They are priced at what the market will bear. When people stop going to games and buying jerseys en masse... and paying for cable/satellite/streaming subscriptions to access sports and support the media fees the pro leagues get... prices might come down. As long as people are willing to pay, they won't.

Player contracts are an outcome of the revenue coming in to the NBA, not a driver.

These jumps in broadcast revenue and franchise valuations seem unsustainable in the long run. I do wonder if/when we’ll see revenue (and resulting cap) contractions. Most likely not anytime soon.

Broadcasting rights are coming up soon and a huge bidding war is expected. Domestic rights alone are expected to triple from 2.6B to possibly 8B

 

[Anarchy99]

These Jaylen Brown takes are getting a bit ridiculous

He had a bad playoffs and a particularly bad series against MIA. he turned it over way too much, but man the left handed dribbling takes are bad

They're bad, but there's no doubt that he clearly favors dribbling with his right hand. He doesn't make great decisions in traffic, and I chalk that up to trying to play hero ball when things aren't going well. His hand injury later in the season didn't help any. I think part of the problem is he ended up with the ball too much and tried to make something happen. BOS needs some better passers and facilitators to get him moving without the ball more. I cringe when he tries to go coast to coast with several defenders in his way. The number of times he went to the basket and ended up losing the ball was way too high.

 

[the moops]

They're bad, but there's no doubt that he clearly favors dribbling with his right hand.

No doubt. But this can be also be said about 90% of NBA players

 

[msudaisy26]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

And if the players took some massive pay cut the prices wouldn't go down, the owners would just pocket more.

 

[Capella]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

And if the players took some massive pay cut the prices wouldn't go down, the owners would just pocket more.

Yea thinking the owners would ever reverse ticket prices or even slow them down is just dreaming. Not ever going to happen.

 

[Frostillicus]

I would just like to point out that in terms of PER, Jaylen Brown was ranked 29th last year. He was 81st in win shares.

He was a 144th in offensive win shares, behind noted bucket getter Nicholas Batum who I just learned is still in the league.

Thanks, nerd.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

Then bump Tatum's salary from $70M to $90M. It doesn't make a difference how much the cap soars, the Celtics are screwed trying to work 2 super-max contracts in their salary framework.

 

[the moops]

They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

Last offseason everyone was heaping praise on how well PHI did in filling out their bench. Their bench was really good and was not the issue with their failures.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

These Jaylen Brown takes are getting a bit ridiculous

He had a bad playoffs and a particularly bad series against MIA. he turned it over way too much, but man the left handed dribbling takes are bad

It’s clearly an exaggeration — but it’s also glaringly obvious that the dude choked going left in key moments this past playoff, over and over. When you can predict it happening in the moment, it’s a bad sign. Wait until NFL season……it will be like predicting a Jordan Love INT when he throws across the middle of the field off his back foot…..

 

[Bogart]

Totally understand that the "league's highest paid player" is a weird situation and changes with the wind, but I have never once made it a point to go see Jaylen Brown play in person, and pretty sure I will never tell my grandkids about all of the amazing Jaylen Brown highlights they were too young to see.

 

[the moops]

Totally understand that the "league's highest paid player" is a weird situation and changes with the wind, but I have never once made it a point to go see Jaylen Brown play in person, and pretty sure I will never tell my grandkids about all of the amazing Jaylen Brown highlights they were too young to see.

It's also weird because Jaylen Brown is never going to be the highest paid player in the league. Every year of his deal there will be someone making more than him

 

[Bogart]

Totally understand that the "league's highest paid player" is a weird situation and changes with the wind, but I have never once made it a point to go see Jaylen Brown play in person, and pretty sure I will never tell my grandkids about all of the amazing Jaylen Brown highlights they were too young to see.

It's also weird because Jaylen Brown is never going to be the highest paid player in the league. Every year of his deal there will be someone making more than him

Fair. I rescind my past comment.

 

[thecatch]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

Players get a fixed percentage of league revenue (51%, I think), so the only two ways to drive down their earnings are for the owners to take a higher percentage (which won't happen any time soon as everybody is making money right now), or for revenue to fall. Blaming ballooning costs in multi billion dollar business on the employees is an asinine take.

While your point might be valid, you don't need to be a jerk about it.

What I would say is that the costs of tickets, parking, concessions, jerseys, etc. all fall into a market. They are priced at what the market will bear. When people stop going to games and buying jerseys en masse... and paying for cable/satellite/streaming subscriptions to access sports and support the media fees the pro leagues get... prices might come down. As long as people are willing to pay, they won't.

Player contracts are an outcome of the revenue coming in to the NBA, not a driver.

These jumps in broadcast revenue and franchise valuations seem unsustainable in the long run. I do wonder if/when we’ll see revenue (and resulting cap) contractions. Most likely not anytime soon.

Broadcasting rights are coming up soon and a huge bidding war is expected. Domestic rights alone are expected to triple from 2.6B to possibly 8B

Yes, I’m aware. I don’t think that revenue stream will continue to grow exponentially in the long run.

 

[Capella]

Live sports are one of the few things the networks can rely on for relatively big ratings still. I would expect their rate increases to be steady for both the nba and nfl. Well especially the nfl.

 

[Chemical X]

You know we are the ones paying for these stupid contracts? In all sports. The owners aren't gonna lose $s. The costs get passed down to the little man. Our tickets, parking ,refreshments, etc go up. Networks have to pay more for the rights and therefore we pay more for subscriptions/cable. Then the companies running ads have to pay more and thus charge us more for their products.

It's to our benefit for these contracts to get under control. I mean, the only $s I spend on sports are a YouTubeTV subscription. So I'm cheap.

The average NBA ticket price has tripled in 8 years, per online sources.

Players get a fixed percentage of league revenue (51%, I think), so the only two ways to drive down their earnings are for the owners to take a higher percentage (which won't happen any time soon as everybody is making money right now), or for revenue to fall. Blaming ballooning costs in multi billion dollar business on the employees is an asinine take.

While your point might be valid, you don't need to be a jerk about it.

What I would say is that the costs of tickets, parking, concessions, jerseys, etc. all fall into a market. They are priced at what the market will bear. When people stop going to games and buying jerseys en masse... and paying for cable/satellite/streaming subscriptions to access sports and support the media fees the pro leagues get... prices might come down. As long as people are willing to pay, they won't.

Player contracts are an outcome of the revenue coming in to the NBA, not a driver.

These jumps in broadcast revenue and franchise valuations seem unsustainable in the long run. I do wonder if/when we’ll see revenue (and resulting cap) contractions. Most likely not anytime soon.

Broadcasting rights are coming up soon and a huge bidding war is expected. Domestic rights alone are expected to triple from 2.6B to possibly 8B

the silna brothers are rolling over in their graves. well, the dead one at least.

 

[mr. furley]

'I thought it was very informative': The new technology that could change NBA shooting forever

Rookies Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson could be stars -- if they develop into shooters. Their first step: using groundbreaking biomechanics to learn what they -- and perhaps many others -- need to change.

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[thecatch]

Live sports are one of the few things the networks can rely on for relatively big ratings still. I would expect their rate increases to be steady for both the nba and nfl. Well especially the nfl.

Steady growth wouldn't surprise me but the types of continued increases from the last couple of media deals would. Media companies are bleeding money and the bidding seems to be propped up by tech companies willing to use these live rights as a loss leader. The growth of media deals and franchise values the last 9-10 years has been crazy.

 

[Instinctive]

I bet there are some NBA teams that are banking on the cap growing much much faster than the 8% super max raises yearly raises these guys on supermax deals get. And if they are correct, these 35% deals may "only" be 30% deals by the end of their contracts which makes it far easier to either duck the tax or put together a more well rounded roster among these max players

I'm not sure if that's really possible, unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. The cap can only increase by 10% per year and Brown's $304 million contract is tied to that 10% rise per year. I believe that the supermax contract is a specific percentage of the cap, not a specific dollar figure, so I'm not sure it will make a difference.

In year one that is true, but it's 8% raises after the first year. So, it'll get a little less daunting as the years progress (and as he likely declines a bit).

fair, but i still think the contract will be like 33% of the cap at best. Spotrac's estimate is 33.25% in the final year and 34.36% in the 4th year.

Yea, they probably know better than me, but a few different podcasts have speculate that the cap is going to rise quicker than we all think.

The cap rises are capped at 10% a year by the CBA so it can't rise too much vs the max player raises.

was going to say the same thing, though there is probably some truth to the fact that a lot of casual NBA fans don't realize that the cap is going to be a lot higher 3 years from now.

~33% higher, to be exact as we can.

 

[Sammy3469]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

Then bump Tatum's salary from $70M to $90M. It doesn't make a difference how much the cap soars, the Celtics are screwed trying to work 2 super-max contracts in their salary framework.

I think that’s going to end up being true for most every team especially with the new apron. I’m also not sure how easy it will be to actually move him given that especially if they wait until after Tatum’s kicks in as they would most likely be above the apron and then they can’t aggregate incoming salary.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

Then bump Tatum's salary from $70M to $90M. It doesn't make a difference how much the cap soars, the Celtics are screwed trying to work 2 super-max contracts in their salary framework.

I think that’s going to end up being true for most every team especially with the new apron. I’m also not sure how easy it will be to actually move him given that especially if they wait until after Tatum’s kicks in as they would most likely be above the apron and then they can’t aggregate incoming salary.

Thought it was the opposite. You can't aggregate outgoing salary

 

[Yo Mama]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

Then bump Tatum's salary from $70M to $90M. It doesn't make a difference how much the cap soars, the Celtics are screwed trying to work 2 super-max contracts in their salary framework.

I think that’s going to end up being true for most every team especially with the new apron. I’m also not sure how easy it will be to actually move him given that especially if they wait until after Tatum’s kicks in as they would most likely be above the apron and then they can’t aggregate incoming salary.

I could see the Lakers potentially being interested in Brown in a couple years post-LeBron. Their books are clean going forward (even after an AD extension), and they like going after stars. He’ll still be in his prime then.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

Then bump Tatum's salary from $70M to $90M. It doesn't make a difference how much the cap soars, the Celtics are screwed trying to work 2 super-max contracts in their salary framework.

I think that’s going to end up being true for most every team especially with the new apron. I’m also not sure how easy it will be to actually move him given that especially if they wait until after Tatum’s kicks in as they would most likely be above the apron and then they can’t aggregate incoming salary.

I could see the Lakers potentially being interested in Brown in a couple years post-LeBron. Their books are clean going forward (even after an AD extension), and they like going after stars. He’ll still be in his prime then.

I'm not saying he's untradeable, I'm saying one of the Celtics big 3 is going to have to be traded because the tax penalties are going to be prohibitive. They have this year and next year before Tatum gets his supermax. Keeping Brown is a redundancy, with Tatum so I would venture to guess, barring some injury, Brown is the one to go. That's ok, he'll get a nice $20-30M payout from Boston for his trade kicker. LOL!

 

[the moops]

Brown had to be signed because the Celtics can't let him walk and use that money dollar for dollar on other players. In reality he is worth some where between half and 2/3rds of what he got, but that is the NBA and why the salary cap needs to be fixed. How I don't know, but it t needs to gives teams more flexibility by letting a player leave in free agency and actually having a higher percentage of that money being used on other players.

The Celtics aren't going to want a dollar for dollar back in Brown trade. The problem is the luxury tax. KP is going to count $30M, Brown $60M and when Tatum signs his supermax, what will he be $70-80M (more?). They also have Robert Williams at $13M in 2025-2026. So that's around $185M for 4 players. Figure 8 league minimum salaries to fill out the roster and you're looking at a ~$195M payroll. The luxury tax is $165M this year. So in 3 years, maybe it's $175M or so. Here are the penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $1.50 per dollar (up to $7.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $1.75 per dollar (up to $8.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $3.25 per dollar (up to $16.25 million).
• For every additional $5 million above tax line beyond $20 million, fees increase by $0.50 per dollar.

The penalties are also more severe for teams labeled "repeat offenders." This means they have exceeded the luxury tax line in three out of the last four seasons. Here are the fees for repeat offenders:

• $0-5 million above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5 million)
• $5-10 million above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75 million)
• $10-15 million above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5 million)
• $15-20 million above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25 million)
• For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar

In the final year of KP's deal the Celtics will be over the luxury tax threshold. So they can either pay the tax and let KP expire or trade somebody and take less back in salary to stay under the tax. If they try to keep those three together, they'll be repeater tax with KP getting a new market value deal. They will be in the same position the Sixers have been in the past couple years, 2 or 3 star players and then they can't fill out the bench. It's tough to win that way.

The league is currently projecting a 5% increase to the cap next season (due to all these RSNs having issues), but teams are expecting 10% raises for the foreseeable future after that. The cap (and therefore luxury tax and aprons, which are now tied to the cap inflation) is going to be soring for the next 6-8 years.

Then bump Tatum's salary from $70M to $90M. It doesn't make a difference how much the cap soars, the Celtics are screwed trying to work 2 super-max contracts in their salary framework.

I think that’s going to end up being true for most every team especially with the new apron. I’m also not sure how easy it will be to actually move him given that especially if they wait until after Tatum’s kicks in as they would most likely be above the apron and then they can’t aggregate incoming salary.

Thought it was the opposite. You can't aggregate outgoing salary

I think this is right. I think people are way undervaluing Brown even on this huge contract. If BOS looks to move him, they won't get a Rudy Gobert return (because that was just dumb) but they certainly will have plenty of interested teams willing to move assets for him

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm not saying he's untradeable, I'm saying one of the Celtics big 3 is going to have to be traded because the tax penalties are going to be prohibitive. They have this year and next year before Tatum gets his supermax. Keeping Brown is a redundancy, with Tatum so I would venture to guess, barring some injury, Brown is the one to go. That's ok, he'll get a nice $20-30M payout from Boston for his trade kicker. LOL!

They were talking about this last night (which I didn't really understand their explanation). They said that there is a limit as to how much a player can make in a season, and if Brown was already at the max threshold, Brown couldn't make beyond that. So the claim / statement was that BOS would only have to pay Brown whatever the difference was to get him to that max amount. They didn't explain it beyond that, so I am not sure if that is an old rule, a new rule, an obscure rule, or complete misinformation. Their argument was that by their understanding of the CBA / salary rules, you couldn't make 115% of the max allowed . . . meaning he might not get anywhere near the trade kicker amount. As for the $20-30M amount listed here, I believe the max trade kicker amount is 15% of that year's salary (not a % of the amount remaining on the contract). The most Brown is scheduled to make (Year 5 of the extension) is $69M. If he got traded for that contract year, if his trade kicker was 15% (it's not supposed to be that high), then he would stand to make an extra $10M if he got moved that year. The talking heads on TV made it sound like Brown couldn't make $79M in a season if the max was set at say $72M, and in that case he could only get $3M for being traded. Like I said, they were throwing out numbers, but they didn't explain where they came from. Anyone with better knowledge of those rules, please explain in greater detail.

 

[the moops]

I'm not saying he's untradeable, I'm saying one of the Celtics big 3 is going to have to be traded because the tax penalties are going to be prohibitive. They have this year and next year before Tatum gets his supermax. Keeping Brown is a redundancy, with Tatum so I would venture to guess, barring some injury, Brown is the one to go. That's ok, he'll get a nice $20-30M payout from Boston for his trade kicker. LOL!

They were talking about this last night (which I didn't really understand their explanation). They said that there is a limit as to how much a player can make in a season, and if Brown was already at the max threshold, Brown couldn't make beyond that. So the claim / statement was that BOS would only have to pay Brown whatever the difference was to get him to that max amount. They didn't explain it beyond that, so I am not sure if that is an old rule, a new rule, an obscure rule, or complete misinformation. Their argument was that by their understanding of the CBA / salary rules, you couldn't make 115% of the max allowed . . . meaning he might not get anywhere near the trade kicker amount. As for the $20-30M amount listed here, I believe the max trade kicker amount is 15% of that year's salary (not a % of the amount remaining on the contract). The most Brown is scheduled to make (Year 5 of the extension) is $69M. If he got traded for that contract year, if his trade kicker was 15% (it's not supposed to be that high), then he would stand to make an extra $10M if he got moved that year. The talking heads on TV made it sound like Brown couldn't make $79M in a season if the max was set at say $72M, and in that case he could only get $3M for being traded. Like I said, they were throwing out numbers, but they didn't explain where they came from. Anyone with better knowledge of those rules, please explain in greater detail.

Yes. You can't make more than the 35% of the cap max. That rule is also in place now. Many times these trade kickers are kinda useless because they either can't be enforced, or if they are, it is only a small percent increase and nowehere near the 15%

 

[SWC]

just poopin in to say i hate poopbeard take that to the bank brochachos

 

[Major]

I think this is right. I think people are way undervaluing Brown even on this huge contract. If BOS looks to move him, they won't get a Rudy Gobert return (because that was just dumb) but they certainly will have plenty of interested teams willing to move assets for him

If the experiment with Porzingis blows up, I could see them moving him to HOU in the off season. Van Vleet, Brooks (Dillon not Aaron) and a few pick swaps seems fair imo.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think this is right. I think people are way undervaluing Brown even on this huge contract. If BOS looks to move him, they won't get a Rudy Gobert return (because that was just dumb) but they certainly will have plenty of interested teams willing to move assets for him

If the experiment with Porzingis blows up, I could see them moving him to HOU in the off season. Van Vleet, Brooks (Dillon not Aaron) and a few pick swaps seems fair imo.

I really don't get the fascination with Brown ending up in HOU. I have seen several people / sites suggest this. NBA players don't go to a specific team because of the head coach. They go to play with their besties and / or they go to build a super team to win a ring. I don't see the Rockets turning things around in a single season. Ime is there now. Big whoop. Even though Brown didn't get a no trade clause, I don't see him agreeing to be traded to HOU. I guess if JB wanted to be Batman and not Robin, then sure, maybe he goes some place other bigger names wouldn't. But not sure being the lead dog on a 30-win, non-playoff team would make him thump his chest, even if he averaged 33 ppg.

 

[the moops]

Van Vleet, Brooks ( Dillon not Aaron) and a few pick swaps seems fair imo

 

[Major]

I think this is right. I think people are way undervaluing Brown even on this huge contract. If BOS looks to move him, they won't get a Rudy Gobert return (because that was just dumb) but they certainly will have plenty of interested teams willing to move assets for him

If the experiment with Porzingis blows up, I could see them moving him to HOU in the off season. Van Vleet, Brooks (Dillon not Aaron) and a few pick swaps seems fair imo.

I really don't get the fascination with Brown ending up in HOU. I have seen several people / sites suggest this. NBA players don't go to a specific team because of the head coach. They go to play with their besties and / or they go to build a super team to win a ring. I don't see the Rockets turning things around in a single season. Ime is there now. Big whoop. Even though Brown didn't get a no trade clause, I don't see him agreeing to be traded to HOU. I guess if JB wanted to be Batman and not Robin, then sure, maybe he goes some place other bigger names wouldn't. But not sure being the lead dog on a 30-win, non-playoff team would make him thump his chest, even if he averaged 33 ppg.

HOU is on the upswing with a bright future. They're also one of the few teams with the flexibility and assets to acquire Brown. Not really sure they need him tho. He'd be a solid 3rd or 4th option on offense so probably not worth the ask.

 

[the moops]

Quality work @Major

 

[Navin Johnson]

Spain-Serbia playing the u18 EU Final right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOnJLSANRhk