the moops
Footballguy
Sixers have only gone over 52.5 once in the Embiid's 8 years.
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2024-25 NBA Thread: “we simply must acquire another top-5 player for next year” Laker GM says after game (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
Major
Footballguy
Castle is for real. He's no Reed Sheppard but I could see them making that next step much like Houston last year.
These stand out:
OVER
Phoenix Suns 46.5 (49)
Miami Heat 44.5 (46)
UNDER
Charlotte Hornets 27.5 (21)
Detroit Pistons 22.5 (14)
Washington Wizards 22.5 (15)
Too much talent on the Suns to not hit 47 wins IMO, and Spoelstra alone makes that Heat over seem like a nice bet. I love the unders on those three abominations. Was assuming I’d be hammering the over on the Grizzlies, but 45.5 is a tough line in that conference.
OVER
Phoenix Suns 46.5 (49)
Miami Heat 44.5 (46)
UNDER
Charlotte Hornets 27.5 (21)
Detroit Pistons 22.5 (14)
Washington Wizards 22.5 (15)
Too much talent on the Suns to not hit 47 wins IMO, and Spoelstra alone makes that Heat over seem like a nice bet. I love the unders on those three abominations. Was assuming I’d be hammering the over on the Grizzlies, but 45.5 is a tough line in that conference.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
can you add expected/pythagorean wins from last year?
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Heat have added nothing to their roster and they lost Martin and Jimmy is a year older. Unless you have a strong feeling that they will do something to upgrade the roster, i don't think it is wise to bet the over, regardless of how good Spoelstra is and the fact that they will still probably be a team you don't want to face in the playoffs.
Agree on Hornets under. Defense will be very ungood.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It's mostly a play on Embiid's health. If he plays 60 games (which I'm betting on) they're going to end up with 50+ wins.
They won 79% of the games he played in in 2023-2024 (31-8). 64 win pace.
They won 65% of the games he played in in 2022-2023 (43-23). 53 win pace.
They won 68% of the games he played in in 2021-2022 (45-23). 56 win pace.
They won 76% of the games he played in in 2020-2021 (39-12). 62 win pace.
They won 63% of the games he played in in 2019-2020 (32-19). 52 win pace.
Yeah, the loss of Martin doesn’t help. He’s a solid piece, especially when Herro and Butler miss half the season, but he’s not a needle mover for me in regard to whether I like that line. I think another year of experience for Jović and Jaquez, along with the addition of Ware, will more than compensate for the loss of Martin. The key will be whether Jimmy, Bam, and Herro can stay healthy. Regardless, I’m on that over.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Without going deeper on them all, San Antonio and Cleveland overs seem too easy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
- Boston Celtics 58.5 (actual 64 . . . projected 66)
- New York Knicks 52.5 (actual 50 . . . projected 53)
- Philadelphia 76ers 52.5 (actual 47 . . . projected 49)
- Milwaukee Bucks 51.5 (actual 49 . . . projected 47)
- Orlando Magic 47.5 (actual 47 . . . projected 46)
- Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 (actual 48 . . . projected 47)
- Indiana Pacers 46.5 (actual 47 . . . projected 48)
- Miami Heat 44.5 (actual 46 . . . projected 46)
- Atlanta Hawks 35.5 (actual 36 . . . projected 36)
- Toronto Raptors 30.5 (actual 25 . . . projected 26)
- Chicago Bulls 30.5 (actual 39 . . . projected 37)
- Charlotte Hornets 27.5 (actual 21 . . . projected 18)
- Detroit Pistons 22.5 (actual 14 . . . projected 20)
- Washington Wizards 22.5 (actual 15 . . . projected 20)
- Brooklyn Nets 21.5 (actual 32 . . . projected 34)
- Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5 (actual 57 . . . projected 58)
- Denver Nuggets 52.5 (actual 57 . . . projected 54)
- Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5 (actual 56 . . . projected 57)
- Dallas Mavericks 50.5 (actual 50 . . . projected 46)
- Sacramento Kings 46.5 (actual 46 . . . projected 45)
- Phoenix Suns 46.5 (actual 49 . . . projected 49)
- New Orleans Pelicans 46.5 (actual 49 . . . projected 52)
- Memphis Grizzlies 45.5 (actual 27 . . . projected 24)
- Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 (actual 47 . . . projected 42)
- Golden State Warriors 43.5 (actual 46 . . . projected 47)
- Houston Rockets 42.5 (actual 41 . . . projected 44)
- Los Angeles Clippers 42.5 (actual 51 . . . projected 49)
- San Antonio Spurs 35.5 (actual 22 . . . projected 26)
- Utah Jazz 28.5 (actual 31 . . . projected 29)
- Portland Trail Blazers 22.5 (actual 21 . . . projected 20)
the moops
Footballguy
Why would you bet on him playing 60 games? I think they bubble wrap the **** out of him and PG and pray they are healthy for the playoffs. Much better being a 4 seed with two "healthy" stars than the 2 seed with typical playoff Embiid health
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Because he needs to play games to stay in game shape.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Bob Loblaw
Footballguy
Strictly for entertainment purposes, where does one safely & legally place wagers on predicting outcomes of sports franchises?
Bob Loblaw
Footballguy
Major
Footballguy
I'm bearish on PHX. Something tells me they underperform early and Durant becomes whiny eventually requesting a trade like he did in BK.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Drive to Vegas
msudaisy26
Footballguy
So you don't think being within 3 games of the actual win total on 57 percent of the teams is very accurate? Most of the ones they missed by more than 3 games are teams that tanked.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The first number is what each team is predicted to win in 2025. The second number is what each team won in 2024. This was not a recap of how accurate their win totals were for last year.
So you don't think being within 3 games of the actual win total on 57 percent of the teams is very accurate? Most of the ones they missed by more than 3 games are teams that tanked.
Balco
Footballguy
I like Castle a lot but don’t think he moves the needle much this year. And aren’t the Spurs going to tank to get a top pick?
the moops
Footballguy
Odds | W-L O/U | Result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +450 | 54.5 | 64-18 (over) | |
| Denver Nuggets | +450 | 52.5 | 57-25 (over) | |
| Phoenix Suns | +600 | 51.5 | 49-33 (under) | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +600 | 54.5 | 49-33 (under) | |
| Golden State Warriors | +1200 | 48.5 | 46-36 (under) | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +1500 | 47.5 | 47-35 (under) | |
| Miami Heat | +1600 | 45.5 | 46-36 (over) | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +1800 | 48.5 | 47-35 (under) | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +2200 | 46.5 | 51-31 (over) | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | +2200 | 45.5 | 27-55 (under) | |
| Dallas Mavericks | +2500 | 45.5 | 50-32 (over) | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +2500 | 50.5 | 48-34 (under) | |
| Sacramento Kings | +3500 | 44.5 | 46-36 (over) | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +4000 | 44.5 | 49-33 (over) | |
| New York Knicks | +5000 | 45.5 | 50-32 (over) | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +6600 | 44.5 | 56-26 (over) | |
| Atlanta Hawks | +8000 | 42.5 | 36-46 (under) | |
| Toronto Raptors | +8000 | 36.5 | 25-57 (under) | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +10000 | 44.5 | 57-25 (over) | |
| Chicago Bulls | +12500 | 37.5 | 39-43 (over) | |
| Brooklyn Nets | +12500 | 37.5 | 32-50 (under) | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +12500 | 28.5 | 21-61 (under) | |
| San Antonio Spurs | +15000 | 28.5 | 22-60 (under) | |
| Utah Jazz | +25000 | 35.5 | 31-51 (under) | |
| Orlando Magic | +25000 | 37.5 | 47-35 (over) | |
| Indiana Pacers | +25000 | 38.5 | 47-35 (over) | |
| Houston Rockets | +25000 | 31.5 | 41-41 (over) | |
| Washington Wizards | +50000 | 24.5 | 15-67 (under) | |
| Charlotte Hornets | +50000 | 31.5 | 21-61 (under) | |
| Detroit Pistons | +50000 | 28.5 | 14-68 (under) |
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here were the 2023-24 preseason O/U win totals and actual results . . .
So you don't think being within 3 games of the actual win total on 57 percent of the teams is very accurate? Most of the ones they missed by more than 3 games are teams that tanked.
BOS - 54.5 (64)
MIL - 54.5 (49)
CLE - 50.5 (48)
PHI - 48.5 (47)
MIA - 45.5 (46)
NYK - 45.5 (50)
ATL - 42.5 (36)
IND - 38.5 (47)
CHI - 37.5 (39)
BRK - 37.5 (32)
ORL - 37.5 (47)
TOR - 36.5 (25)
CHA - 31.5 (21)
DET - 28.5 (14)
WAS - 24.5 (15)
DEN - 52.5 (57)
PHO - 51.5 (49)
GSW - 48.5 (46)
LAL - 47.5 (47)
LAC - 46.5 (51)
MEM - 45.5 (27)
DAL - 45.5 (50)
SAC - 45.5 (46)
NOP - 44.5 (49)
MIN - 44.5 (56)
OKC - 44.5 (57)
UTA - 35.5 (31)
HOU - 31.5 (41)
POR - 28.5 (21)
SAS - 28.5 (22)
the moops
Footballguy
@msudaisy26
Looks like 8 teams finished within 3 games of their preseason over/unders.
Looks like 8 teams finished within 3 games of their preseason over/unders.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
The first number is what each team is predicted to win in 2025. The second number is what each team won in 2024. This was not a recap of how accurate their win totals were for last year.
So you don't think being within 3 games of the actual win total on 57 percent of the teams is very accurate? Most of the ones they missed by more than 3 games are teams that tanked.
My fault. I read that backwards.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Right now the Pistons are the most bet on team for their win total and 95 percent of the bets and 97 percent of money is on the over.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
What could possibly go wrong?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
There is a consensus number 1 pick and DET's 1st round pick to NYK protected for selections 1-13 in 2025.
The over is a lock.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
- Boston Celtics 58.5 (hit this total last year . . . last season before that was 2009)
- New York Knicks 52.5 (last hit this number in 2013)
- Philadelphia 76ers 52.5 (last hit this number in 2023 . . . last season before that was 2001)
- Milwaukee Bucks 51.5 (went over this total 3 times the past 6 seasons and had a year 51 wins)
- Orlando Magic 47.5 (last went over this total in 2011)
- Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 (above this total the past 2 years)
- Indiana Pacers 46.5 (had 47 wins last year . . . last season before that was 2019)
- Miami Heat 44.5 (Since LeBron left, over this total 3 times in 10 seasons)
- Atlanta Hawks 35.5 (over this total the past 4 seasons)
- Toronto Raptors 30.5 (over this total 10 of the past 12 seasons)
- Chicago Bulls 30.5 (over this total the past 4 years)
- Charlotte Hornets 27.5 (under this total the last 2 years)
- Detroit Pistons 22.5 (over this total once in the past 5 seasons)
- Washington Wizards 22.5 (prior to last year, they were over this total for 11 straight years)
- Brooklyn Nets 21.5 (over this total the past 7 years)
- Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5 (Beat this total last year and last time was 2014)
- Denver Nuggets 52.5 (went over this number the last two season)
- Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5 (went over last year and last time was 2004)
- Dallas Mavericks 50.5 (Went over this total once since 2011)
- Sacramento Kings 46.5 (Went over this total once in 20 years)
- Phoenix Suns 46.5 (went over this total 3 of the past 4 years)
- New Orleans Pelicans 46.5 (went over this total last year . . . last time was 2018)
- Memphis Grizzlies 45.5 (went way over this number in 2022 and 2023)
- Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 (went over this total last year, but not the 3 years before that)
- Golden State Warriors 43.5 (went over this total the past 3 years)
- Houston Rockets 42.5 (last beat this total in 2020)
- Los Angeles Clippers 42.5 (have been over .500 every season since 2011)
- San Antonio Spurs 35.5 (under this total the past 5 years)
- Utah Jazz 28.5 (over this total the past 10 years)
- Portland Trail Blazers 22.5 (under this last season . . . but over the 17 seasons prior to that)
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Good reminder that betting the under on the lowest teams is probably a good idea. There is just no point for them to win after halfway through the season. Plus this years draft is a lot better, so you’ve gotta think this years low numbers will go under, no matter how low they areHere were the 2023-24 preseason O/U win totals and actual results . . .
So you don't think being within 3 games of the actual win total on 57 percent of the teams is very accurate? Most of the ones they missed by more than 3 games are teams that tanked.
BOS - 54.5 (64)
MIL - 54.5 (49)
CLE - 50.5 (48)
PHI - 48.5 (47)
MIA - 45.5 (46)
NYK - 45.5 (50)
ATL - 42.5 (36)
IND - 38.5 (47)
CHI - 37.5 (39)
BRK - 37.5 (32)
ORL - 37.5 (47)
TOR - 36.5 (25)
CHA - 31.5 (21)
DET - 28.5 (14)
WAS - 24.5 (15)
DEN - 52.5 (57)
PHO - 51.5 (49)
GSW - 48.5 (46)
LAL - 47.5 (47)
LAC - 46.5 (51)
MEM - 45.5 (27)
DAL - 45.5 (50)
SAC - 45.5 (46)
NOP - 44.5 (49)
MIN - 44.5 (56)
OKC - 44.5 (57)
UTA - 35.5 (31)
HOU - 31.5 (41)
POR - 28.5 (21)
SAS - 28.5 (22)
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Good reminder that betting the under on the lowest teams is probably a good idea. There is just no point for them to win after halfway through the season. Plus this years draft is a lot better, so you’ve gotta think this years low numbers will go under, no matter how low they areHere were the 2023-24 preseason O/U win totals and actual results . . .
So you don't think being within 3 games of the actual win total on 57 percent of the teams is very accurate? Most of the ones they missed by more than 3 games are teams that tanked.
BOS - 54.5 (64)
MIL - 54.5 (49)
CLE - 50.5 (48)
PHI - 48.5 (47)
MIA - 45.5 (46)
NYK - 45.5 (50)
ATL - 42.5 (36)
IND - 38.5 (47)
CHI - 37.5 (39)
BRK - 37.5 (32)
ORL - 37.5 (47)
TOR - 36.5 (25)
CHA - 31.5 (21)
DET - 28.5 (14)
WAS - 24.5 (15)
DEN - 52.5 (57)
PHO - 51.5 (49)
GSW - 48.5 (46)
LAL - 47.5 (47)
LAC - 46.5 (51)
MEM - 45.5 (27)
DAL - 45.5 (50)
SAC - 45.5 (46)
NOP - 44.5 (49)
MIN - 44.5 (56)
OKC - 44.5 (57)
UTA - 35.5 (31)
HOU - 31.5 (41)
POR - 28.5 (21)
SAS - 28.5 (22)
This why the Pistons will go over. They can **** anything up.
the moops
Footballguy
Isn't this the exact opposite of what Detroit wants to do? They are not going to convey their pick this year (no chance they make playoffs), so shouldn't they tank again and shoot for Cooper Flagg?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Yes. That’s her point.
the moops
Footballguy
I'm confused. Why is the over a lock then?
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
If the Pistons were smart they'd let Holland and Ausar play 36 minutes a night while averaging 4-5 airballs per game each and probably finish with single-digit wins. But then they'd get a lot of negative media attention, fans would chant "sell the team" and owner Tom Gores would cry himself to sleep at night while wiping his tears with hundred dollar bills.
So what they're actually going to do is give all those minutes to 32-year olds Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr., win 25 games, draft 7th, and talk about how much progress they're making.
Because for the last 15 years, the pistons have been a dumb (and unlucky) organization.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
The horn in these Olympic games is unbearable.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I thought that was him but was like no way, why would he be doing that
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Because the pistons always **** things up. Even if they try to do the right thing. Maybe Trajan will get things working better
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Every time I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber......
the moops
Footballguy
Uncalled for. Why you so mean!!??
Zow
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Few things more enjoyable than Lebron on the break when you know he is attacking the rim.
trader jake
Footballguy
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