I've been thinking about this since the playoffs. Better get it in now before it's too late.
We often hear about how getting a very high pick in the draft is so important to having a great team. You need that superstar. Some teams tank for years to increase lotto ball chances.
There is no doubt that the higher the pick, the better the player you are expected to get. But there is a ton of variability. Let's look at what pick the best player was on the playoff teams last year:
Finalists: 11, 12
Conference finalists: 1, 33
2nd round losers: 41, 7, 13, 3
1st round losers: 2, 15, 3, 16, 13, 15, 1, 1
So, out of the 16 teams, we have 5 top 3 picks, 1 mid-lotto, 4 late lotto, 3 just out of the lottery, and 2 second round picks. Only one of those top 3 picks made it out of the 2nd round.
Is the importance of this overstated?