Moe.
Footballguy
You were right, DK just posted Ohio State -4.5. Feels way too high to me.
I’ll believe it when I see that as a live number. Seems crazy but I’m not very sharp.
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2024 College Football Thread: Ohio State advances to play unbeaten hypothetical SEC team (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
Moe.
Footballguy
How in the world could you possibly be this confident about that? It’s still a bunch of college kids and they’ve got to win two more games.
3C's
Footballguy
I was wondering..
No doubt those guys are hammered.
Capella
Footballguy
No way that’s real
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
The Texas/OSU line didn't seem high to me. And the "sharps" or whomever/whatever you want to call it, drove it up even higher?
It's begging for Texas money, which is beautiful. OSU is gonna roll.
And LOL @ some sort of home field/state advantage, as some have mentioned.
It's begging for Texas money, which is beautiful. OSU is gonna roll.
And LOL @ some sort of home field/state advantage, as some have mentioned.
jm192
Footballguy
It's in their state. The crowd figures to be heavily pro-Texas. If anyone benefits from the location, It's Texas.
That said, I agree OSU smashes them.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I was the only one going to bat for BYU over SMU in this thread, and no one would even engage it.
ACC were the joke this year, not the big 12.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
We're on the same page here so please don't take this the wrong way, but again, the location is meaningless. It's not only "in the spread" but OSU travels as well as any. And I don't think that stuff even matters much, not at this point.
In Autzen, early in the year? Sure. Not now. This isn't some small basketball arena with hometown refs.
How demographics have anything to do with this game, especially nowadays, I'd like to know. Please explain the advantage for texas.
Like, Jeremiah Smith has more concern with burning orange, and his draft position, than some bloated burnt orange in the stands.
The last thing Ohio State players will be concerned about are cowboy hats on their 10th beer.
kupcho1
Footballguy
BULLETIN BOARD MATERIAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jm192
Footballguy
I think 1, the crowd noise.
Two: It's a 3 hour drive from Austin to the Cotton Bowl. Columbus is 15 hours away. They'll probably fly. There's more travel involved. Texas is in a more comfortable situation leading up to the game.
It's minor factors. I'm not here to say Texas is going to win. Ohio State travelled a lot more than Oregon did for the Rose Bowl and beat the snot out of them.
I think those factors are a net positive for Texas. Will it be the difference? I don't think so. I don't think anyone in college can cover Smith. And if you double/triple him, Egbuka is still going to destroy you.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Don't they split the ticket sales by school? Ohio State travels extremely well, they will sell out all their tickets even if the game was in Greenland.
Zow
Footballguy
Anybody know where the public money is on the Georgia v. ND game?
I'm currently doing well in a pick em pool (ATS) and the line was set at Georgia -1.5 but I need to get some wins where more of the opponents are on the other side.
My normal strategy then is to get "free points" and lock in my picks last minute. So, here, the natural play would be to take ND and say thank you for the free 2.5 points, but I am thinking most will be on ND.
I'm currently doing well in a pick em pool (ATS) and the line was set at Georgia -1.5 but I need to get some wins where more of the opponents are on the other side.
My normal strategy then is to get "free points" and lock in my picks last minute. So, here, the natural play would be to take ND and say thank you for the free 2.5 points, but I am thinking most will be on ND.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Insein
Footballguy
Oh the B1G will have a champion this year. We are...
kupcho1
Footballguy
Pump the brakes chief. PSU would be ecstatic if they somehow made the final.Oh the B1G will have a champion this year. We are...
Insein
Footballguy
Just poking the ... Ummm... What is a buckeye exactly?Pump the brakes chief. PSU would be ecstatic if they somehow made the final.Oh the B1G will have a champion this year. We are...
jm192
Footballguy
The schools will definitely have no problem selling out their tickets. There will also be publicly sold tickets. A lot of tickets wind up on Stubhub and other secondary websites. I fully believe Texas will have a stronger representation in their own state when their fans barely have to travel.
I believe Ohio State travels as good as anyone. I think they'll have a strong showing. I also believe it's easier for people in Texas to go to a game in Texas. I still think there are more Texas fans in the crowd than Ohio State fans. It's in their back yard. It's easier to go.
TheBaylorKid
Footballguy
Go watch Dave Aranda at Baylor. He goes for it on 4th a lot, and fails a lot.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
ACC has a recruiting issue. I watch it fairly close. Even Clemson, Miami, and FSU. They can't pull from the NE, SE, or PA/OH because the B10 and SEC win the best recruits in those areas. Dabo could win the recruiting game but refuses to play in the transfer portal. And MIA and FSU are limited mostly to FL players. I guess UNC will be able recruit with BB at the helm. But the midwest and rocky mtn recruits should love what the B12 schools offer. I think that conference is on the upswing. OU and UT leaving was rough, but it made them branch out and they have some large schools. ACC has some small undergrad schools like Duke, UVA, BC, and Wake that will never have the money to compete.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Fox sports?Oh the B1G will have a champion this year. We are...
NutterButter
Footballguy
If I was a gambling man, I'd be all over Georgia. Seen this too often with ND that they come up short when the opposing talent is raised up to that next level.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Georgia was poor this year though. Their "good" wins were Tennessee, Clemson, and Texas which I'm not sure were really even that good of wins. They lost to a bad Alabama team and got blown out by Ole Miss. They beat a really bad Kentucky team by 1. They should have lost to both Florida (were it not for Lagway getting hurt and Florida being down to a freshman 3rd string QB after that) and Georgia Tech. They were extremely lucky to not have 5 losses.
That's what makes this game tough. A Georgia team that I know is overrated vs. a Notre Dame program that has a major history of being overrated.
I'll probably sit this one out and just bet heavy against whichever one plays Penn St in the next round.
Jayded
Footballguy
Two more nuances to the game I failed to mention in my prediction:
- Notre Dame rotates backs more than many realize ; Jeremiyah Love is the unquestioned alpha, but he'll still likely only see 11-15 carries total even if ND runs a lot
- ND likes to keep its backs fresh and you'll see a lot more of Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams than you expect
- Yes, even assume Love pops a big run and clearly has found a rhythm, expect him to sit the next series or two and watch the commentators puzzled at why they're doing that ; they've done it all year
- Mike Denbrock is from the school of Brian Kelly : Panic Passing is the default
- My biggest fear is this guy in a big game
- If runs don't immediately work, he reverts to panic passing on all downs
- Often go-to of the panic pass is the WR bubble screen that never works and gains 0 through -5 yards
- ND cannot get behind the chains all day panic passing or it'll be a long day
NutterButter
Footballguy
The last thing you want to do is rely on riley to win this game with his arm. One of the worst throwers you'll see at a big program.
Jayded
Footballguy
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Not reading through the last few pages, as I don't want to relive that debacle any further. That was....not good. Totally outclassed from the kickoff. It's amazing how different tOSU has become in the past month, I just don't see how anyone beats them at this point with that much talent now that the coaches seem to have figured out how to get the most out of it. They totally outschemed the Ducks on both sides of the ball, and Lanning and staff had no answers. Still believe in him and the trajectory of the program, as not too many first time head coaches pick up a natty in year 3 and each year has been a little better than the last. But he does need to keep growing and learning.
More importantly he needs to get some elite skill position guys here. The whole "unlimited NIL" Uncle Phil narrative is such a tired and lazy take, as the Ducks aren't even in the top 10 in spend this year by most estimates, and tOSU paid at least double for that roster. And it sure showed on the field! It will be interesting to see the roster management over the next few months. They've got a bunch of youngsters waiting in the wings at QB, RB, in the secondary, etc, that on paper are more talented than the transfers he's brought in the past couple of years to man those spots. A few contributors have decisions to make on staying, transferring, or going pro. Great recruiting class coming in, but you usually can't count on more than a couple of them contributing in year 1.
The Rose Bowl is always amazing, so no regrets. Stayed at an ABNB with 6 other friends, saw a bunch more that were down here on NYE and at the game, and another perfect weather day in Pasadena on Jan 1. If you've never been, I highly recommend it! After the game came back to our place and cancelled all the travel plans for Dallas and Atlanta. I guess that's the only silver lining, probably just saved myself about $5K!
More importantly he needs to get some elite skill position guys here. The whole "unlimited NIL" Uncle Phil narrative is such a tired and lazy take, as the Ducks aren't even in the top 10 in spend this year by most estimates, and tOSU paid at least double for that roster. And it sure showed on the field! It will be interesting to see the roster management over the next few months. They've got a bunch of youngsters waiting in the wings at QB, RB, in the secondary, etc, that on paper are more talented than the transfers he's brought in the past couple of years to man those spots. A few contributors have decisions to make on staying, transferring, or going pro. Great recruiting class coming in, but you usually can't count on more than a couple of them contributing in year 1.
The Rose Bowl is always amazing, so no regrets. Stayed at an ABNB with 6 other friends, saw a bunch more that were down here on NYE and at the game, and another perfect weather day in Pasadena on Jan 1. If you've never been, I highly recommend it! After the game came back to our place and cancelled all the travel plans for Dallas and Atlanta. I guess that's the only silver lining, probably just saved myself about $5K!
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
Really confused by what a “good win” is
Feels like more Notre Dame winning than ever. I just don't see a way a kid comes off 3 years of riding the bench to QB his team to a Sugar Bowl win in his first start.
Sounds great in the movies.
This one seemed set the minute Georgia lost their starting QB.
And yes, I know everyone says Beck is terrible. Kirby Smart had 3 years of watching the new guy every day and the answer for every game was the guy everyone thinks sucked was still better.
So unless Kirby Smart is a total idiot, the new guy must be beyond terrible.
Sounds great in the movies.
This one seemed set the minute Georgia lost their starting QB.
And yes, I know everyone says Beck is terrible. Kirby Smart had 3 years of watching the new guy every day and the answer for every game was the guy everyone thinks sucked was still better.
So unless Kirby Smart is a total idiot, the new guy must be beyond terrible.
As best I can tell from the internet, it's a win against any team that makes your case stronger.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Totally irrelevant to the context I am talking about here, betting in games like their matchup today in a major bowl at the end of the year.
Prior to this year 0-7 in major bowl games/playoff games in the last 20 years, with all but one of those being 2+ score blowouts. -104 scoring margin in those games.
Doesn't matter that the pollsters only dropped them to #5 or #6 after losing a playoff game by 28 points as #4 at the end of the year. The point is they were overrated at #4 and an easy target to bet against in that game. Which is the kind of game we have on the plate for tonight, as they are perennially overrated in these kind of games and 0 for 7 against the spread. Except for the fact that Georgia is also pretty overrated this year. Hence the quandary of the team that I think will underperform this year against the team that always underperforms in these games.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I mean, he may or may not be better than the backup, but he definitely was not very good this year.
The problem people have when grading college QBs is they don't grade it with the proper context. They'll see 28 TD, 12 INT, 7.8ypa, 64% completion, and 145rtg and think "hey, that's pretty decent!" because they don't consider the context of what kind of team that QB is playing on. Those numbers are pretty good by NFL standards where there is lots of parity and even the "dominant" teams are playing against relatively similarly talented teams each week. It's pretty solid if you're a mid-tier college team as well.
But on a dominant college football program like Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, etc it's sucky sucky trash trash. When you look at even remotely good college QBs on those kind of programs the numbers aren't even on the same planet. We're talking 42 TD/3 INT with 11.6 ypa and 199rtg. Merely above average QBs we're talking 10ish YPA, 72%+ completion, 180+ rtg, etc.
Even Stetson Bennett was slinging it around at 10ypa.
It's just a totally different world for stats on these top tier teams where any reasonably competent player should be able to put up significantly better numbers. Carson Beck is basically a poor man's Stetson Bennett at this point.
I don't really know much about the backup. Maybe he sucks but the offense if anything looked better against Texas when Beck went out. Even if Beck is better losing a poor man's Stetson Bennett isn't something that totally changes a teams possibility of being competitive in a game like it would be for a team that has been dependent on top QB play all year and then lost that. The worst case scenario is that it will be a little harder. They're not missing much.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
I've got UGA squeaking this one out. I truly believe ND has more talent. maybe not when they were recruited, but at this moment. And while UGA has started many games slow, I do believe UGA coaches are better and will pull their players through. Mostly just hoping for a good game.
ETA ... no matter who wins this the finral 4 is gonna be all big time programs. ESPN must be happy. As is that booth ref on the take in the ASU game.
ETA ... no matter who wins this the finral 4 is gonna be all big time programs. ESPN must be happy. As is that booth ref on the take in the ASU game.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
beyond terrible doesn’t keep a scholarship and roster spot at Georgia, the kid probably starts at 95% of other college programs
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
If those two extra days gets Abdul Carter on the field, it will be huge for PSU
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Big XII refs? We knew where this thread would go. It's a lock now. Start pissing and moaning now gents!!!!
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ChiefD
Footballguy
As an outsider looking in, to me Oregon needs to start investing in line play. Their fat guys dominated your fat guys all game.
If Oregon ever figures out THAT part is the most important part - then they win national championships.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
15 yards
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Totally irrelevant to the context I am talking about here, betting in games like their matchup today in a major bowl at the end of the year.
Prior to this year 0-7 in major bowl games/playoff games in the last 20 years, with all but one of those being 2+ score blowouts. -104 scoring margin in those games.
Doesn't matter that the pollsters only dropped them to #5 or #6 after losing a playoff game by 28 points as #4 at the end of the year. The point is they were overrated at #4 and an easy target to bet against in that game. Which is the kind of game we have on the plate for tonight, as they are perennially overrated in these kind of games and 0 for 7 against the spread. Except for the fact that Georgia is also pretty overrated this year. Hence the quandary of the team that I think will underperform this year against the team that always underperforms in these games.
The odd thing about ND being overrated is that but for an early September upset which is likely the most highly improbable upset in college football all season, they would have finished the season undefeated and gone into the bowl season ranked 1/2 with Oregon.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
They aren't holding these games on the weekend during the NFL Playoffs. They'll get destroyed in the ratings. So one is Thursday night and one is Friday night.
Penn St should have only had one extra day of rest. It's going to be 2 extra days because of the NO tragedy no matter when the game is played. That's their reward for getting put in the worst slot of Quarterfinals (NYE instead of NY Day).
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Obvious 15 yarder. I no longer think the refs are on the take. They all just suck at their jobs
back to back, young hates that punter!
NutterButter
Footballguy
They're trying to knick the punter out. Lol.
