TwinTurbo
Footballguy
AR was 53% in high school too. He did improve his senior year. But that's 53% avg over the last 7 seasons in high school + college. Could he improve to 63% in the pros. Sure its possible. But there is a reason he only threw 393 college passes. You are banking on his RB skills to compensate. The upside is probably Justin Fields with worse accuracy and a similar sack rate.I hear you, AR is a project. The good part is he's so early in his progress. He's only thrown 393 college passes. Of course it is worrisome because we don't know what kind of finished product he will be, but we do know that he has a lot of room to grow. I think if you put AR in a healthy football environment with quality coaching, he is going to improve. How much is the question? If Ben, Dan and Brad look at him and think he's the kind of QB they could mold then I think it'a very worthwhile gamble.AR is 53% completion percentage, LJ was >63% in college. Hurts was over 71%. Its night and day. Similar to how Bryce Young is an outlier in terms of size, AR is a huge outlier in terms of accuracy. Even Josh Allen was 56% and he is an anomaly. Its like drafting a college WR with a >10% drop rate. You shouldn't be learning how to catch and throw in the NFL if you are a first round pick. But some teams never learn about never learningAnthony Richardson at 1.06? Do I love AR? Nope. He has some big flaws that could be fatal but I think he's mostly a mystery box. All the tools are there to be a Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson MVP candidate level QB. Detroit is in the unique position of being able to take it slow with him as there would be zero expectation that he starts a game this year. I know this is controversial so here's my rationale
- This IS a win now move. The Lions are clearly setting this team up to make a playoff run in 2023. As they should, they are a significant favorite to win the NFC North. All it takes is one injury to Goff though and the season is done. We could be looking at a 9-3 record and then boom, Goff falls the wrong way, breaks a collarbone and now it's Nate Sudfeld or some veteran off the scrap heap like Flacco or Bridgewater. Having AR, would give us a super talented backup and possibly provide enough playmaking ability where even if his passing isn't ready, his legs can wreak havoc on defenses.
- This is also a win later move. It gives us options for the QB position. Leverage for the Goff negotiations, the ability to let Goff walk, a potential star QB on a rookie deal with a loaded roster.
- If we are thinking Super Bowl this year, adding a few Richardson packages as the year goes would add a wrinkle to the offense that could give defenses fits. Look at the Eagles and their push play. Nobody is stopping AR at the goal line or on 4th and short. Think Taysom Hill with blazing speed and a cannon arm.
- QB is the ultimate value. There is no position harder to fill in all of football and their price tag is higher than any other position (both in terms of contract $ and trade value). If Richardson plays in some preseason, gets a few reps here and there during the season and the buzz is good, he can be a huge trade chip for the future. QB is probably the only position where a top 10 pick can hardly even play or only play decently and still retain a ton of value. If we decide we want to commit long term to Goff, we can probably flip AR for a 1st or 2nd.
As for comping to Lamar and Jalen, that's obviously based on physical traits. Lamar and Jalen were way more experienced coming out. Lamar and Hurts had thrown over 1000 college passes. They were much better with the last 300 passes than they were with their first 300. They got the reps to get better.
Lamar's first year as a starter: 54.7% completion (his career average was 57% and he never exceeded 59% for a season)
Jalen's first year as a starter: 63% (his career average was 69%) and Hurts benefited from playing in 2 of the most talented and QB friendly offenses in the country.
So I see Lamar and AR both around 54% in their first years starting and I see the improvements he made, I do think it is possible that AR can improve by 10% in the NFL. He's never going to be Drew Brees accurate but the arm strength and the mobility can makeup for it and then some.