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2025 Detroit Lions: 8-6 Rams beat Lions (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Da Guru
- Start date
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Wasn't Lamb or Pickens doing it as well? I thought it was weird.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Unheard of.
The secondary has been decimated. Rakestraw did not make it a week in camp and out for year, Arnold out for the year, Branch out for the year, Joseph been out for 9 games and possibly out for year, Reed has missed half the season, Harper got knocked out last night.
Welcome to the 49ers training facility
NickRocks
Footballguy
Agreed, having either GB or CHI go 2-0 in there games is probably best case. Splitting opens the hardest road for the Lions.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Robert Mays from The Athletic made a good point on their post-game wrap-up show: The common thread among all the Lions' losses this year is that they've come against good defenses. Doesn't bode well for LA next week, or for the playoffs
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
This has been my concern. They hung 44 on Washington and Dallas, but the OL isn't as good as the last two years and they don't have answers for teams that can get consistent pressure.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I know overall the Dallas defense hasn't been good, but since the trade deadline they have been pretty solid. Maybe there is some hope.
Moonlight
Footballguy
On the prime broadcast last night it was mentioned that the Lions led the NFL last year in games lost to injuries and that they were leading the league again this year.
Now I hope I heard this right because it was a quick comment that wasn't followed up.
If so for two years it strongly suggests that there is something occurring with the Lions contributing to this problem.
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Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
It's a joy watching the best RB on the game at his finest. What an electric runner in the open field.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I just heard an update guy say something pretty close to this. He said they were #1 last year and #2 this year.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
All teams have injuries. The Lions do get more than their share though. Unfortunate for sure.
Some are just bad timing and like Hutch leg whipping his own teammate, AA breaks his forearm shoving a guy OB, Deckers years of wear and tear and has had shoulder issues for a long time. Davenport has always been hurt. McNeils ACL was non contact. LaPorta got his back crunched getting tackled, Wright got jammed in the throat. Davis got kneed in the jaw making a tackle last season. Reed had a hammy, Arnold is always dinged. Joseph looks like he has a degenerative knee issue.
The Branch one is concerning as it seemed he was limping earlier in the game and has been bothered by what they said was an ankle. Might have been his Achilles ready to blow.
I think about non contact knee injuries every time Gibbs makes to sharp stops and cuts on the turf. As I am sure the turf fields contribute to some of these injuries in the NFL.
This. There are so many teams that seem to lose almost everyone to injury every year. I believe the Chiefs are rolling out 1 starting o-lineman today. The 49ers are absolutely devastated (especially given who has the injuries), the bucs have barely had a WR or RB all season long (now lost Wirfs), bills are limping along...
2024 analysis
Most and Least Injured NFL Teams in 2024: Key Insights and 2025 Projections | Sports Injury Central
Expert analysis of Most and Least Injured NFL Teams in 2024: Key Insights and 2025 Projections
Seems to happen to the 49ers every year
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It's great watching other games after a win, way more relaxing than the normal game day.
Mt. Man
Footballguy
Playoff race to date:
*Figuring that Philly wins the East. Or, if they don't, it means that they finish 10-7 or worse.
*Not worrying about South race. The winner may finish with a worse record than the Lions and the 2nd place team almost surely will (or else Detroit isn't contending).
So, North and West
West will be at least 2 of Rams, Sea & SF. Next week's game at the Rams looms large for Detroit, of course, as do the Rams-Sea (wk 16) and Sea-SF (wk 18) games. It's feasible that all three of these teams finish with better records than the Lions.
North we know. It's technically possible for Detroit to get the division, but that'll take either going 4-0 or Pack going 1-3 (or worse) plus Bears losing again. Most likely is GB getting the division, so Lions can focus on what the Bears do. For Bears, Wk 15 is hosting Cleveland in probably a win, but then there's GB again and a trip to SF in Wk 17, so far from an easy road.
Outside of South, feels like you'll need 11 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC. Though that's pretending that the NFL is relatively predictable.
*Figuring that Philly wins the East. Or, if they don't, it means that they finish 10-7 or worse.
*Not worrying about South race. The winner may finish with a worse record than the Lions and the 2nd place team almost surely will (or else Detroit isn't contending).
So, North and West
West will be at least 2 of Rams, Sea & SF. Next week's game at the Rams looms large for Detroit, of course, as do the Rams-Sea (wk 16) and Sea-SF (wk 18) games. It's feasible that all three of these teams finish with better records than the Lions.
North we know. It's technically possible for Detroit to get the division, but that'll take either going 4-0 or Pack going 1-3 (or worse) plus Bears losing again. Most likely is GB getting the division, so Lions can focus on what the Bears do. For Bears, Wk 15 is hosting Cleveland in probably a win, but then there's GB again and a trip to SF in Wk 17, so far from an easy road.
Outside of South, feels like you'll need 11 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC. Though that's pretending that the NFL is relatively predictable.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Not implying anything about those players or their particular injuries, but soft-tissue injuries, or guys who are always getting nicked up, could absolutely be a function of something the team is doing wrong rather than mere bad luck. Maybe they're not doing enough to get/keep the guys in shape. Maybe practices are too intense and it takes something out of them.
When baseball shifted from Moneyball 1.0 to 2.0, the big move was looking at stats retroactively to evaluate how well someone has played to analyzing how best to develop talent. In the case of football, where the analytics discussion is still largely around in-game decisions (eg, going for it on 4th), I wonder if the next gen focus will be on training and injury prevention. It's potentially a huge untapped area that could provide massive benefits to early adopters. I recall Chip Kelly doing some stuff when he first took over the Eagles (pickle juice?) but it didn't have much sticking power
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Green Bay beating Chicago yesterday was absolutely the best thing for the Lions.
Nevertheless, FTP
Nevertheless, FTP
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Lions a 5.5 point dog this week, biggest number this season. Rams are probably the best team they will face this year. It's a tough matchup but I'm not counting it as a loss before the game is played. Hopefully there is something that they can learn from the game LA had vs Carolina 2 weeks ago.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Following up on this, some interesting stats from that game. Rams had more yards per play 7.4 to 5.8, as well as slightly more total yards 379-358. L.A. also committed fewer penalties than Carolina, 1 to 7.
But the Panthers won the important turnover battle 3-0 and were successful on 3 of 3 fourth down attempts. Carolina also rushed for 164 yards. All of this helped them to a 35-25 minute advantage in time of possession, keeping the Rams offense off the field.
If the Lions are to be able to score the upset I think they need to replicate some of what Carolina did that day.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Game went pretty much as expected. Was going to be tough to get stops on the Rams offense with a depleted secondary.
With LaPorta and even Wright out hurt the offense. After falling being Lions only had St Brown and Williams who both played very good. No TEs to lean on, no third WR, Tessla is a total non factor and zero help in the passing game. Hillsdale background is showing in the NFL.
Rams are solid everywhere and Lions D just could not hold up. Win the last 3 and hope for some help.
With LaPorta and even Wright out hurt the offense. After falling being Lions only had St Brown and Williams who both played very good. No TEs to lean on, no third WR, Tessla is a total non factor and zero help in the passing game. Hillsdale background is showing in the NFL.
Rams are solid everywhere and Lions D just could not hold up. Win the last 3 and hope for some help.
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Mt. Man
Footballguy
Lions held their own vs. the Rams. Really, I'd say they looked better for 3 quarters, it's just that the 3rd quarter was so bad that it didn't matter.
Gutsy losses are still losses. Sea, SF & Chi all won, to little surprise. GB lost, which is a minor break for Lions chances.
Like Da Guru said, gotta win out and hope things break their way.
Lions with the slimmest of chances to win the division if things break perfectly (Lions win out, CHI beats GB but loses to SF, GB also loses another game). Probably still rooting for the Pack this Saturday. Bears loss and then Wk 18 is for a spot as long as Detroit keeps winning. Technically a chance for 6th if SF somehow loses out, but almost certainly either 7th or out for Detroit.
Gutsy losses are still losses. Sea, SF & Chi all won, to little surprise. GB lost, which is a minor break for Lions chances.
Like Da Guru said, gotta win out and hope things break their way.
Lions with the slimmest of chances to win the division if things break perfectly (Lions win out, CHI beats GB but loses to SF, GB also loses another game). Probably still rooting for the Pack this Saturday. Bears loss and then Wk 18 is for a spot as long as Detroit keeps winning. Technically a chance for 6th if SF somehow loses out, but almost certainly either 7th or out for Detroit.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
519 yards given up, impossible to win a game like that even putting up 34 points against a top 10 defense. As others have said, gotta find a way to win out.
NFL. com gives them a 41% chance of getting in.
NFL. com gives them a 41% chance of getting in.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know know, man. It's a really consistent pattern. You seem like you are receptive to statistics and analysis. Go look at Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, ESPN, and now of FTN. He tracks a stat called Adjusted Games Lost. Detroit's injury rate just seems really, really abnormal, as does San Fran's. I mean, you know who else starts talking about "the callous"? Kyle Shanahan. That can't be good.
FFS. The Lions had the worst adjusted games lost this century in '22 and '23. Something seems up.
Front 7 was healthy and got abused. 1st round pick Williams looks like a very bad pick.
As is TeSlaa. We all had as many catches as he did. That's unacceptable for a guy that cost a lot of draft capital.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I (like many others) don't judge draft classes until at least 2-3 years later. You can say early returns are not good, but the history of the NFL is full of players who broke out in their 2nd or 3rd year. Football websites every year have articles highlighting those potential breakouts, including this one.
I hear you. They still look like bad picks as of now and why I had zero issues with trading that pick for a win now player.
I don't feel this team has 2-3 years to wait. And if Brad felt that way about TeSlaa, why not have a more capable 3rd WR on the roster while we wait for him to develop?
It all goes back to Holmes continuing to build this team when we are literally watching the window close in front of our eyes.
And more and more people are realizing that.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
@Payne, I'm with you on TeSlaa. It's poor asset management. You gave up multiple picks for a #3 WR on a team that has so many weapons that the #3 WR might get 2 targets a game. Is that worth multiple 3rd round picks? A guy like Olamide Zaccheaus is a perfect #3 WR, you don't have to give up picks for him, he's cheap and he's very productive. I wish the Eagles kept him. The Commander fans wished they kept him. I'm sure when he leaves Chicago, they'll wish they kept him. Anyone could have signed the guy in the offseason. Instead, you burned two future 3rds.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Time will tell on Teslaa but it will not be this season. They tried one fade to him and he fell down on his own. Right now just think his playing low level ball at Hillsdale and then not getting much action at Arkansas is showing, just not had enough high level experience so he will need time. I know people have been hard on Teslaa but where is #1 pick Tyreek Williams?? Never hear his name called or see him much.
Problem is with LaPorta and Wright out they needed a solid #3. Losing LaPorta really hurt.
Right now I am looking to next year, this team stills plays hard but does not have enough healthy horses. Would really like to play the whole season with Branch, Joseph, Arnold, Reed, Rakestraw, Robertson available for every game to see the results. Right now Lions are forced to use 3 LBs almost every down. Nobody does that anymore in a passing league.
Hate to admit it but Stafford looks better than ever. Watching some of the replays yesterday he is playing at a MVP level.
St Brown and Puca looked decent for 4th and 6th round picks, proves the draft is not an exact science.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
The problem isn't picking project players to stash on the practice squad or the end of the bench. The problem is using 3rd, 4th and even 5th rounders to do it. Those are suppose to be your depth guys and occasionally you find a Kerby and ARSB. I am not saying they would have hit on all of them, but Manu, Rodriguez, Teslaa, Booker, etc could have been a pick that could be helping the team right now.
Also not addressing the defensive line. Two best players coming off big injuries, doubling down on Davenport, signing guys that are always hurt and surprise they get hurt again.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Davenport will be out of the NFL next season. 2 wasted seasons for Detroit.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Based on the contracts in the WR room, TeSlaa won't be a significant player for the Lions without a significant injury to ARSB or Williams. The more likely scenario is he's traded to a team with a need and breaks out there.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I didn't mind taking the chance on him the first time, but bringing him back again was dumb. They should have tried a different one year guy.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think Branch is Laporta on defense. Numbers don't always show their impact on the game. They are the unsung heros of this team on offense and defense.
And why I did not care for the Joseph signing. Teams don't pay two safeties that kind of money.
And now there are rumblings Joseph MAY have a career ending injury.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I saw a stat a couple of weeks ago that Hutch was playing like 94 percent of snaps and it was like 15 to 20 percent higher than the other elite guys like Parsons, Garrett, etc.
I don't know all the percentages and the averages for all positions, but maybe the Lions are playing their starters more snaps than other teams due to a lack of depth and this is leading to more injuries.
I am not saying this is true, just a thought.
I don't know all the percentages and the averages for all positions, but maybe the Lions are playing their starters more snaps than other teams due to a lack of depth and this is leading to more injuries.
I am not saying this is true, just a thought.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
When you look at Hutch at times he does seem like he is breathing hard and tired, rightly so as he plays with a high level of effort. Every time Parsons chases a QB for 15 yards he walks right off the field for a play or two. Garrett did the same yesterday. Lions should do the same with Hutch but they really have no depth at edge now.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
First of all, I just posted that without comment because I was doing it on my phone.* I thought it was interesting but didn't feel like typing out my thoughts on a tiny keyboard
I said in other posts in this thread that I don't totally understand the mechanism, but I definitely don't believe that injuries are solely a function of "bad luck". Maybe it's undertraining, or overtraining, or the wrong kind of training or whatever, but while certain injuries (Hutch's broken leg last year) are clearly a case of wrong place, wrong time, others are, to varying degrees, preventable.
I really hope the Lions brain trust is spending time this offseason figuring out what they can do differently to have "better luck" next year. Maybe there is no answer, but I sure hope they overturn every stone trying to find one.
* Back in the PSF days, I posted something in the Covid thread and another poster jumped all over me for posting a link without comment. He imputed a motive to my post that was directly contradicted by a million other things I had posted in the thread. His logic was, "If you had wanted to explain that you didn't think that, you would have done so" (which is weird logic to say you can understand someone's motives based on what they didn't say, but whatever). Anyway, the explanation was 100% that I had posted it from my phone while on the go and didn't have time to include additional commentary.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hey I hope you don’t take my wording as attacking you in any way whatsoever. That’s not my intent. I was seriously just trying to add something. I know you like reasoning so I figured you’d like Aaron’s work. It’s Detroit and SF. I wasn’t directing anything at you—hell, it was more about Kyle. Peace, man.
As for the 2 pt. stuff I would encourage you to read the really brief origin case for it and then the comment section. It’s wild. There is math. Watch the expected value he assigns “possessions.” It’s not just information. It has something to do with decision science and EV models excluding empirical variables. The originator has trouble keeping theory separate from real-world concerns that damage the EV models that exclude real world variables that are relevant. He treats it like its axiomatic until he doesn't. There’s actually a lot wrong with what he does. Peace
I link to the 1 1/2 page argument. Oh, by the way, I agree that in at some points in the game you go for two because of the knowledge gained.
Trailing by 15 in the middle of the 4th quarter, teams are foolish to not go for 2 after touchdowns
Let’s start with the obvious: your odds of winning when trailing by 15 in the 4th quarter are really, really low. From 1994, the first season the two-point attempt was introduced to the NFL, to 2011, 68 teams have entered the 4th quarter trailing by exactly 15 points. Only one of those teams...
www.footballperspective.com
eta* I also fully relate to the phone stuff only these days it's actually the reverse for me. I have a crappy, small keyboard that takes me forever to type something.
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He absolutely plays too much. Why? Because the D line lacks talent and depth.
But Holmes laughed at the thought of having two elite edge rushers when asked on the radio about it.
I'm not even sure Hutch should be placed in that group. Especially Garrett. He isn't Garrett. Not even close.
Now if the rest of the D line improved perhaps he could get to that level.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Just from the eye test the Lions need to play with a lead. Seems like when trailing late in the 3rd and 4th and have to pass things get dicey fast. If Goff has to pass almost every down it usually does not end well. When teams get Goff moving he looks so slow, then as soon as he gets on the run either way the play is doomed as he us unable for the most part to make plays on the move or run for a first down.
Since Goff will be here the next 3-4 seasons Lions have to bolster the o-line at any cost.
Since Goff will be here the next 3-4 seasons Lions have to bolster the o-line at any cost.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This wasn't comparing their play as much as playing time and maybe it is the Lions team as a whole. I don't even know if it is true. Was Branch and Joseph playing significantly more snaps than other starting safeties? How about our offensive lineman? It was just a thought that this is why they are getting hurt more frequently or it could just be a fluke.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Yesterday was dispiriting, but also pretty much expected, and does not really hurt their playoff chances all that much. At the end of the day, the Lions were never going to win the division, nor were they going to catch the 5 or 6 seeds. Their most likely path to the playoffs is beating out the Bears for the 7 seed, and that wasn't significantly impacted by yesterday's results. If the Lions pick up a game on Chicago over the next two weeks, then Week 18 will be for the playoffs. And "picking up a game" just means them going 2-0 against Pitt/Minn while Chicago goes 1-1 or 0-2 against GB/SF.
And of course, not to revel in an opponent's injury, but Parsons being out also gives Detroit a faint hope of catching GB if they completely collapse. Lions are 1.5 back and would need to go 3-0 while Packers go 1-2 against Chi/Bal/Minn
And of course, not to revel in an opponent's injury, but Parsons being out also gives Detroit a faint hope of catching GB if they completely collapse. Lions are 1.5 back and would need to go 3-0 while Packers go 1-2 against Chi/Bal/Minn
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Bill Simmons frequently talks about a "good-bad team", which is the one that beats up on inferior opponents but has no chance against the top teams. That's pretty much what the Lions have been this year. Their best wins have come against Chicago (still finding their footing in Ben's second game), Baltimore (reeling at the time), TB (completely beat up and at the beginning of a downward spiral over the second half of the season) and Dallas (wildly inconsistent). Their other wins have come against Cleveland, Cinci, Washington and NYG. Meanwhile, their losses have come against mostly been on the road against superior opponents.
The irony is that if they do make the playoffs, their opponent in the wildcard round would likely be either GB or Philly, both of whom would be favored but neither of whom is playing particularly well at the moment. They'd still be healthy favorites against the Lions, but they would at least have a chance. On the other hand, a divisional game against the Rams, Seahawks or Niners? Not so much.
All of which goes to say that the Lions have a decent chance of making the playoffs, and maybe even squeaking into the divisional round, but that's pretty much their ceiling
The irony is that if they do make the playoffs, their opponent in the wildcard round would likely be either GB or Philly, both of whom would be favored but neither of whom is playing particularly well at the moment. They'd still be healthy favorites against the Lions, but they would at least have a chance. On the other hand, a divisional game against the Rams, Seahawks or Niners? Not so much.
All of which goes to say that the Lions have a decent chance of making the playoffs, and maybe even squeaking into the divisional round, but that's pretty much their ceiling
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