Allen Park — Here are five thoughts to end the week as the Detroit Lions prepare to open the season on the road against the Green Bay Packers.
Are odds reflective of reality?
When the Packers traded for All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons last week, the national perspective on the division shifted. The Detroit vs. Everybody crowd would lead you to believe everyone collectively jumped ship to back the Pack in the race — and some unquestionably did — but the reality is the move only narrowed what figured to be a competitive race in one of the league’s most competitive divisions.
What is true is that the Packers are now the betting favorite with most, if not all, of the major sportsbooks. The margin is so slim that it’s hardly worth mentioning. However, for all the chatter about disrespect from this fanbase, isn’t this exactly where the Lions want to be, back in the underdog role, with free fuel for their fire?
Does Parsons make the Packers immediately better? Absolutely. There are counterarguments, but they’re all rooted in coping. Everyone hates to see a rival land a stud, but this is a truly elite defensive talent being inserted into an already good defense.
Kenny Clark, who departs as part of the return package, is a good player being subtracted from that unit, but let’s not equate a defensive tackle about to turn 30, coming off one of his worst seasons, to a 26-year-old four-time Pro Bowler who has 52.5 sacks and a staggering 330 QB pressures through his first four years.
No one would be making similar arguments if the Lions had traded DJ Reader for Maxx Crosby. Admittedly, not a perfect comparison, but I’m confident you get the point. It's the two first-rounders the Packers gave up that could end up being the true impact, limiting the franchise's ability to add meaningful building blocks to its foundation in '26 and '27.
Still, let’s take a wider-angle look, a position-by-position look, to understand if the addition of Parsons really upsets the power balance in the North.
Quarterback? Detroit’s situation is better. Jordan Love has upside, and battled some injury issues a year ago. Regardless, he didn’t take the step forward many of us expected coming off his breakout campaign in 2023. Jared Goff, meanwhile, had the best season of his career and, really, Detroit franchise history.
Running back? Josh Jacobs is awesome, but Jahmyr Gibbs is better. Add David Montgomery to the mix, and it turns into a blowout in Detroit's favor.
Wide receiver? Lions have a first-team All-Pro in Amon-Ra St. Brown, while the Packers are still looking for a No. 1 option.
Tight end? Tucker Kraft is another really good player. Still, every GM in the league likely takes Sam LaPorta. I might give the edge to a healthy Luke Musgrave over Brock Wright for the No. 2 spot, but Musgrave’s struggles with durability can’t be dismissed.
How about the offensive line? It’s closer than it’s been following the retirement of Frank Ragnow. Still, it's Detroit's five.
That’s a clean sweep for Detroit’s offense.
Defensively, Parsons gives the Packers a slight edge on the edge. He’s a wash with Aidan Hutchinson, but Rashan Gary has proven more, particularly in recent years, than Marcus Davenport.
However, on the interior, Detroit’s collective is better, especially when you factor in both the departure of Clark and the pending return of Alim McNeill.
Linebackers? Edgerin Cooper is going to be nice. He might even end up the best linebacker in the division sooner rather than later, but Detroit’s corps is stronger, and the gap gets bigger when you factor in the depth.
Shifting to the secondary, the Packers have one of the best safety tandems in the NFL. Most teams would swap out their two for Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams. Detroit is not one of those teams. Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch
are the best safety pairing in the NFL.
Detroit also has better corners, especially following the offseason exit of Jaire Alexander. Terrion Arnold’s rise is admittedly still hypothetical, at least until he proves it on Sundays. Regardless, the league knows who DJ Reed is, and it’s better than anything the Packers have to offer. The nickel role is close. I probably take Amik Robertson today, but I like Javon Bullard’s upside and versatility beyond the 2025 season.
Detroit also has a better kicker, punter and punt returner. They can't match Keisean Nixon as a kick returner, though.
If there’s a true advantage the Packers have in 2025, it’s their schedule. The Lions have a first-place slate, drawing three correlating finishers from the previous season. Those games are against the Chiefs, Rams and the Buccaneers. The Packers, as the third-place finisher in the North a year ago, have those matchups replaced by showdowns with Arizona, Carolina and Denver.
Is that enough to tip the scales? Vegas thinks so.
But from a talent perspective, anyone suggesting the Parsons move rockets Green Bay ahead of Detroit is being disengenuous.
A question of depth
Let me use this space to push pause on the Za’Darius Smith conversation. I’m not closing the door on a reunion, but I want to put some numbers to the equation to add some perspective.
There’s no reason to believe the Lions are going to dial back Hutchinson’s usage after the camp he had. That means we can pencil in the star edge rusher for approximately 85% of the workload each week.
Opposite Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport was getting around 60% of the snaps to start last season, so we’ll pencil him in for the same amount this year.
Finally, as the top reserve, it’s reasonable to slot Al-Quadin Muhammad in for 30 or so reps per week.
So let’s do some math. The Lions averaged 65 defensive snaps per game last year. That means they need to fill out 130 for the two edge rushing spots. At 85% and 60% workloads, that’s 55 for Hutchinson and nearly 40 for Davenport. If we give Muhammad 30, that leaves five, maybe six reps.
Ok. It’s probably a few more than that because Hutchinson and Davenport situationally slide inside on at least a handful of passing downs, so let’s say 10-15. That’s what the Lions need to fill when they’re healthy.
For now, those remaining reps figure to go to newcomer Tyrus Wheat. However, in four to six weeks, or whatever it ends up being, Josh Paschal will return, giving the Lions a fully stocked cupboard.
For all the hand-wringing about Smith, the Lions pivoted to Davenport and Muhammad when the veteran didn’t agree to a salary reduction prior to his release. The snaps have been filled.
The conversation is really about insurance. It’s what happens if there’s an injury, most notably to the oft-injured Davenport. That’s the risk the Lions have decided to take. They're not willing to overpay for an insurance policy they might need, especially with Smith lingering on the open market, if they might need him.
A remarkable recovery
I want to stick with the Hutchinson theme for a second, because I don’t think we appreciate how remarkable his recovery has been.
When it comes to significant lower-body injuries, it often takes two years before the player truly returns to form, if ever. Obviously, we haven’t seen Hutchinson in game action to confirm, but everything he did through the offseason points to him being all the way back, physically. He was a menace during camp.
What really hammered home this superhuman recovery was an unrelated conversation with center Graham Glasgow this week.
Checking in on how he was feeling after getting rolled up on and leaving the team’s joint practice with the Houston Texans late last month, Glasgow said it was painful in the moment, but he's good. That's obviously great news for the Lions, who are counting on the veteran to help navigate choppy waters after Ragnow called it a career.
The conversation turned to when Glasgow suffered a broken leg in Denver in 2021. He returned the following season but wasn’t the same, leading to the Broncos releasing him in the offseason, paving the path back to Detroit.
Glasgow said he didn’t feel right until the 2023 season, but that the leg was still problematic when he anchored on it even last year, which was part of his discomfort and struggles playing left guard.
That’s an interesting anecdote in itself, but the point is Glasgow’s broken leg was impacting him three years after the injury. Hutchinson almost certainly will still have some moments of discomfort, but if we’re unable to differentiate between the player he was before the injury, that’s remarkable.