Chadstroma
Footballguy
I know they liked Isaiah Pola-Mao a lot, he came in and played pretty close to 100% of the defensive snaps after Epps went down. Maybe they want to see him and Epps together.
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2025 Las Vegas Raiders thread - ☠ Jersey number is SRS BZNS ☠ (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Hankmoody
- Start date
LawFitz
Footballguy
Grady Jarrett signing also highly reflective of the amazing value the Raiders are getting out of Butler's contract. Raiders were smart to lock this guy up early.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Pola-Mao and Chinn. I don't think Epps has signed yet and might not.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
I don’t get this formula. Are they looking at 3 extra picks as of now?
LawFitz
Footballguy
It's based on # of signings in and out. I'm not entirely straight on it, but I believe you first have to have lost more UFA than you signed. Once that criteria is established, then they offset lost UFAs with any that were signed to comparable deals on a per annum comparison. So IF the Raiders lose three more UFA players than they sign, and none of the new signings are for the per annum ranges established by Moerhig/Spillane/Hobbs, then the Raiders would get a mid-round pick for each of them, also based on the per annum they signed for - they'd be probably be looking at a 3rd-4th for Moerhig and 4th-5th rounders for Spillane/Hobbs... Which round depends on the relative per-annum contract amounts compared to all the UFA deals signed across the league in that year.
Lost:
Moerhig: $17 per
Spillane: $13 per
Hobbs: $12 per
Signed:
Chinn: $8 per
Let's say Epps signs for ~$8 per with someone else. That would offset Chinn and the upper three would result in comp picks. Won't know for sure until all the UFA signings are made across the league, but you can see above how anyone they sign in the $12+ per annum range from UFA would cost them one of the those three comp picks.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
We could have kept the 3rd and signed Fields or Darnold for the same/less (way less for Fields) money - that would be the chess move. But I'm ok playing checkers first, taking no chances at missing out on those guys to bigger bags or prettier landscapes and walking out of March like we did last year with no plan. Geno has a great floor and even if the ceiling is limited, it's at least in double digits. The cost wasn't outrageous, and a late 3 is no guarantee to hit anyway, so at least it's a plan. Many years ago when I was in corporate management they had a mantra - "Always have a plan. Always execute to the plan. Constantly evaluate the plan. If the plan stinks change it. Always execute to the plan." At least we're now not going to panic and sign Rodgers or Cousins.
joey
Footballguy
Agreed.HUGE.Koonce re-signed 1 year $12 MM prove it deal. Fair and good for the Raiders and MK.
A healthy Koonce on the other side of Crosby and Wilkins (healthy) and Butler in the middle is a very good Dline with Chasson, Robinson and Snowden all showing that they can contribute in a rotation. I was worried that they were going to let him walk. I am ok spending 12 on him for one year and then hopefully he goes off and we pay up next year.
Dline is “done”.
Move on to DBs and LBs imo.
And always OL. Always and eternally.
And I don’t mind signing a cheap WR and then we draft a WR this year.
joey
Footballguy
Yeah, I felt the pangs as well when I saw the Fields/Jets signing and the numbers.
But we know the Geno/Carroll history with each other so I’m trusting in the new regime.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Roughly, yes. I like charts, here's what last year's comp formula looks like for us:
| CFAs Lost: 5 | CFAs Gained: 3 | ||||||
| Name | Rd | APY | # | Name | Rd | APY | # |
| Bilal Nichols | 6 | $7M | 411 | ||||
| Amik Robertson | 6 | $4.63M | 452 | ||||
This is why we're (expected) to get a couple of 6th round comp picks this year - they will be officially announced usually in early April.
Here's where we are right now for 2025 FA/2026 comp picks:
| Player lost | AAV | Likely pick gained | Likely pick cancelled | Player gained | AAV |
| Moehring | $17.3M | 4th | |||
| Hobbs | $12.5M | 4th | |||
| $ | $ | ||||
So right now Chinn/5th would "cancel" out Spillane/4th even though they aren't the same picks - it's the only option. As it stands right now we're looking at two 4th rounders in 2026. If we lose someone cheaper that's also worth a 5th then that would cancel out instead and we'd have three 4ths. However, if they were only worth a 6th then Chinn wouldn't cancel that out - it's equal or greater pick value. We also keep losing picks if we sign players unless we lose more too.
So what makes a contract worth what round pick? That's a much more complex discussion I'll leave for something else but in a very general sense:
$20M+ = 3rd round
$12M + = 4th round
$7.5M+ = 5th round
$4M+ = 6th round
$2.5M+ = 7th round
Again, a LOT of factors can change this.
It's important to note that not all players count in the formula:
- Only players on expiring contracts count, so anyone that was cut can be signed and not have an offset. Kappa doesn't cancel out a pick for us as an example.
- This window closes at some point and anyone signed after that doesn't cancel out picks - I think that's when the NFL draft starts.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
$12M for Koonce is an awesome one year deal.
$8M for Chinn is a great swing.
$5M for Butler is such a value
$17M for Moehring is too much and I'd rather he walked and we take the comp pick
$13M for Spillane is hefty. Hate losing him, happy we'll get a good comp pick, mostly happy we didn't pay close to premium ILB money for him.
$12.5M for Hobbs is aggressive =- see Spillane above.
Looks like we are in alue mode and I love it. There will be guys (like Spillane a few years ago) we can bring in and coach up rather than dropping bags of money.
$8M for Chinn is a great swing.
$5M for Butler is such a value
$17M for Moehring is too much and I'd rather he walked and we take the comp pick
$13M for Spillane is hefty. Hate losing him, happy we'll get a good comp pick, mostly happy we didn't pay close to premium ILB money for him.
$12.5M for Hobbs is aggressive =- see Spillane above.
Looks like we are in alue mode and I love it. There will be guys (like Spillane a few years ago) we can bring in and coach up rather than dropping bags of money.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yep, like I said at least we're playing checkers and not marbles like last year.Yeah, I felt the pangs as well when I saw the Fields/Jets signing and the numbers.
But we know the Geno/Carroll history with each other so I’m trusting in the new regime.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I obviously have not looked at what Raiders are under contract and which are not recently
joey
Footballguy
Looks like you found the new thread titleYep, like I said at least we're playing checkers and not marbles like last year.Yeah, I felt the pangs as well when I saw the Fields/Jets signing and the numbers.
But we know the Geno/Carroll history with each other so I’m trusting in the new regime.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
More than don't mind... we need to add to the WR room. It is exceptionally thin after Tre and JakobAgreed.HUGE.Koonce re-signed 1 year $12 MM prove it deal. Fair and good for the Raiders and MK.
A healthy Koonce on the other side of Crosby and Wilkins (healthy) and Butler in the middle is a very good Dline with Chasson, Robinson and Snowden all showing that they can contribute in a rotation. I was worried that they were going to let him walk. I am ok spending 12 on him for one year and then hopefully he goes off and we pay up next year.
Dline is “done”.
Move on to DBs and LBs imo.
And always OL. Always and eternally.
And I don’t mind signing a cheap WR and then we draft a WR this year.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
For the most part, I like what we did last year in FA and draft. Some wins, some injuries.... no real huge busts.Yep, like I said at least we're playing checkers and not marbles like last year.Yeah, I felt the pangs as well when I saw the Fields/Jets signing and the numbers.
But we know the Geno/Carroll history with each other so I’m trusting in the new regime.
The marbles was the regime before that with McD and his buddy with hideous roster moves.
The smart teams don't overpay on the first day of free agency. You guys are doing fine imo. Really bad teams (like the current Patriots) almost have to overpay because nobody wants to go there.
LawFitz
Footballguy
The chess move will be getting a 3rd-4th back for losing Moerhig (albeit the following year). Which would not have happened had they signed Fields, since his contract would have offset Moerhig's.
Chaka
Footballguy
How is Fields a "chess" move?
He hasn't been particularly good overall and he is downright bad as a passer. He still hasn't demonstrated the ability to consistently pull off his first read and his accuracy has been mediocre. Those are two things that should have "clicked" by now. I would have enjoyed seeing him in a Chip Kelly system but Geno is light years ahead of Fields as a QB in every respect. Great wheels does not an NFL QB make.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
In the absence of another QB option, getting the QB is far more important. Forfeiting a 4th next year instead of a 3rd year is a much better price, and at the time I wrote that it wasn't known we were going to get any comp picks (still might not) next year in which case we'd forego nothing. I'm genuinely surprised Moehring and Spillane got what they got, I figured we'd re-sign both at mid-market levels but other teams clearly valued them higher.
massraider
Footballguy
Spillane got more than Greenlaw. No way he's worth that.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He's 10 years younger, he's 1/2 the price, he's a better fit in Kelly's system, and we'd have kept our 3rd round pick.
Any way you cut it, whoever turns out to be the "better" QB is the chess move, but we don't know that without hindsight.
But as I said, bird in the hand and all that, I'm fine with how it turned out. We have no idea if Fields had any interest in us - he might have read Chip Kelly and said "ewwww, no thanks, I don't want any part of that clown" - who knows? And then we have no plan at all. F that.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
kupp? sure would like to see some OL signings
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Has to come available first.
That said... from what I know of Chip Kupp isn't exactly the prototype WR he looks for
joey
Footballguy
The chess move is never signing anyone, I guess, so we get all these compensatory picks
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Chinn lined up at safety, linebacker and cornerback for the Commanders last season. The snap counts breakdown for each position is insane. It isn't like he had a guest appearance at any one position. The dude must have a very high football IQ.
LawFitz
Footballguy
The chess move is never signing anyone, I guess, so we get all these compensatory picks
Not true. The chess move is signing value free agents almost exclusively, with very few big dollar guys sprinkled in, every once in a while when a true stud comes available. That formula maximizes your cap flexibility and rewards you with extra swings on draft weekend.
Of course, none of the above precludes you from playing top dollars to your own guys if you think they are worth it.
This is exactly what Brad Holmes has done with the Lions.
joey
Footballguy
My winky-face implied I was joking, but I honestly appreciate the extra info and details since this whole process is an unknown to me.The chess move is never signing anyone, I guess, so we get all these compensatory picks
Not true. The chess move is signing value free agents almost exclusively, with very few big dollar guys sprinkled in, every once in a while when a true stud comes available. That formula maximizes your cap flexibility and rewards you with extra swings on draft weekend.
Of course, none of the above precludes you from playing top dollars to your own guys if you think they are worth it.
LawFitz
Footballguy
"The chess move is signing value free agents almost exclusively, with very few big dollar guys sprinkled in, every once in a while when a true stud comes available. That formula maximizes your cap flexibility and rewards you with extra swings on draft weekend."
Quoting myself to add, the Raiders followed this formula to a tee on day 1. Very solid couple of value signings today. Especially the in house one. Can't believe Butler didn't get more after looking at most of these deals!
Quoting myself to add, the Raiders followed this formula to a tee on day 1. Very solid couple of value signings today. Especially the in house one. Can't believe Butler didn't get more after looking at most of these deals!
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That was a steal. Butler is a really good player. Some comparable players got a lot more. In general some of the contracts today were insane.
SDJohnny
Footballguy
Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter
Steelers free-agent linebacker Elandon Roberts reached agreement tonight with the Las Vegas Raiders on a one-year, $3 million deal.[/URL]
Steelers free-agent linebacker Elandon Roberts reached agreement tonight with the Las Vegas Raiders on a one-year, $3 million deal.[/URL]
joey
Footballguy
Ok folks who know stuff….good, bad, meh?
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Meh to ok depth. I only know him from playing idp
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Bad if it cancels out a comp pick, this is a total wtf signing at this point. I get that we want to add some depth and high-character guys but there are tons of $3M guys available and we shouldn't be signing any bottom-dollar guys until we either have lost some other lower-tier guys or the comp period closes. Right now he costs us a 4th/5th rounder next year:
| Player lost | AAV | Likely pick gained | Likely pick cancelled | Player gained | AAV |
| Moehring | $17.3M | 4th | |||
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Chaka
Footballguy
I am quite certain Carroll asked Kelly for input about Geno. Mobility may suit Kelly but there is a lot more to playing the position than wheels. Geno has plenty of mobility and, more importantly he is incredibly accurate.
Age is the only thing Fields has going for him, and it's eight years not ten.
Fields is half the cost for a reason.
A third round picks is hardly a high price for a proven NFL starter.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Again, I'm not criticizing the move. It's a nice checkers move, we got kinged yay us. But if we get a quality starter without paying the 3rd it's a better move.
To put it in terms more familiar to Raider fans, it's just like us to give away a 3rd and get an old terrible washed up $40M QB when we could have had a 26 year old terrible $20M QB that didn't also cost us a 3rd round pick.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I like Justin Fields. I would have been intrigued if the Raiders signed him, happy even. His physical attributes scream upside. But he's a fifth year player with 44 starts under his belt and we still don't know if he can play QB at this level (which kinda suggests we know he can't).
Frankly, Fields would be better served going the Geno route and carry a clipboard for a few years while he waits for the game to slow down for him. Paying Fields half as much as Geno is overspending by the Jets based on production.
Signing Fields and saving the 93rd pick in the draft, which is as much a fourth rounder as a third (the salary is irrelevant), isn't high level gamesmanship, it's gambling against the House.
Geno is incredibly accurate, processes the field as fast as anyone, gets the ball out quick and can produce behind a shaky (poor) offensive line. Getting him for pick 93 is a very savvy move.
ICON211
Footballguy
Some of you guys are way too focused on comp picks. Can't run an nfl team and free agency with a large emphasis based on comp picks, that may or may not be awared, based on a formula that is not even fully known. I don't even think Roberts is the caliber FA signing that would even factor into the comp pick formula based on what I have read about it. The Raiders are not in a position to be passing on players they think can help the team.
SDJohnny
Footballguy
Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
#Raiders LB Divine Deablo is signing a with the #Falcons on a 2-year, $14M deal with $8M in year one, source said.
Wow, staff must have not thought much about Deablo at all.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
I couldn’t stand to watch Deablo and his pathetic arm tackling that rb’s just ran through. It pained me to watch that guy on the field, just always out of position and terrible technique. Low football iq
Chaka
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Deablo got slightly better each year but not enough for me to cry over him moving out.
It is interesting that we are letting almost all the FA's walk.
It is interesting that we are letting almost all the FA's walk.
ICON211
Footballguy
I really wanted Koonce back more than any of them so I like that. Also would have liked to get Spillane and Hobbs back. Not too upset about the others.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
I
i really want chaisson back
Chaka
Footballguy
Did he though? In 2022 it looked like he was on his way to a breakout season but he got injured, in 2023 his per game stats never came close to 2022 and last year he seemed to regress terribly.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Spillane was a loss. But for the money he got, you got to let him go.
Hobbs was way too inconsistent and injured too often for me to lament his loss.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Niners should have a bazillion comp picks so far
LawFitz
Footballguy
Niners and Ravens. Raiders have three mid-rounders if they play the rest of free agency right.
Correction: I thought Diablo signed for the same AAV as Chinn, but it was actually $8 MM per for Chinn and $7 for Diablo.
Chiasson signing for more than $8 per would bring back that third mid-rounder to the Raiders. But I'd way rather keep Chiasson than get that pick, especially if he'd sign a Chinn/Koonce/Butler-like deal. After Chiasson, the Raiders have no other UFAs left who could sign on the open market for more than that $8 MM per.
Ameer Abdullah
Harrison Bryant
Adam Butler
K'Lavon Chaisson
Marcus Epps
Darnay Holmes
John Jenkins
Malcolm Koonce
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Alexander Mattison
Andrus Peat
Janarius Robinson
Cody Whitehair
Of the remaining list above, the only one I really care to have back is Chiasson. Rest of the list is replacement level, except for maybe Epps, who is coming off injury. The only loss I am wimpering for is Spillane, though I also think Hobbs has potential to do a lot more in GB than he flashed in Vegas - could definitely see him becoming the defensive version of Josh Jacobs over there, more than earning the $12 MM per they paid him. GB has a history of stealing the Raiders good players.
Four guys I wanted the Raiders to get back: Butler, Spillane, Koonce, Chiasson. Hobbs was a bonus if they could get the other four.
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DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
We need comp picks in the title.
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