2025 Masters Thread - Was: Collin Morikawa will TIE FOR 14th at The Masters (3 Viewers)

[Nipsey]

I know I’m not exactly going out on a crazy limb here but I wanted to spread the word in case you’re interested in tagging along and making enough to get back to even now that our retirement funds have been obliterated. I have my reasons to believe this will happen. More to come...

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I don't bet golf a lot but I do get into a majors pool where we pick 3, low score wins the pot. I was thinking of CM as one of the 3.

 

[Zow]

What about the ending of the Arnold Palmer Invitational has you this confident?

 

[Joe Bryant]

What odds are you seeing? 16:1 or so?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

What odds are you seeing? 16:1 or so?

Yes @ FanDuel
18-1 @ DK

 

[Thorn]

He is my pick as well! I got 18:1 via Draft Kings.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Who does this guy think he is, Finless?

 

[Joe Bryant]

What's the reasoning behind why everyone is so hyped on him?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I think I’m talking myself into DeChambeau but he’s so hard to root for

I have a bunch of $5 and $10 free bets from DK though so ill probably have a bunch of irons in the fire

 

[Andy Dufresne]

My top 3 picks are Rory, Aberg, and Joaquin Niemann

 

[Zow]

What's the reasoning behind why everyone is so hyped on him?

He's definitely a good, consistent player who doesn't seem to shy in the big spots. That said, and as acknowledge by Nipsey, it's not an out there pick or a very bold prediction. He's just a good player that does probably win one at some point.

The NFL equivalent is probably like saying Justin Herbert will win MVP?

 

[Zow]

I think I’m talking myself into DeChambeau but he’s so hard to root for

By embracing his weirdness - mainly on social media - he's become far less annoying. He's kinda like Eli Manning.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

I think I’m talking myself into DeChambeau but he’s so hard to root for

I have a bunch of $5 and $10 free bets from DK though so ill probably have a bunch of irons in the fire

He's actually the easiest to root for out of the current crop, his hole in one over his house content was awesome.

 

[WDIK2]

Is there going to be a 2025 Masters thread? @Nipsey do you want to make this the "***Official***" 2025 Masters thread?

I have a question about using AI for one of my pool entries.

 

[BassNBrew]

I think I’m talking myself into DeChambeau but he’s so hard to root for

I have a bunch of $5 and $10 free bets from DK though so ill probably have a bunch of irons in the fire

Check out his Youtube channel. Super cool guy who would be a blast to hang with.

 

[Judge Smails]

I think I’m talking myself into DeChambeau but he’s so hard to root for

I have a bunch of $5 and $10 free bets from DK though so ill probably have a bunch of irons in the fire

Old DeChambeau was. I think he's really likable now

 

[Judge Smails]

Morikawa is a great ballstriker who should be in the mix. All about putting with him.

 

[SouthJersey]

I'm going with a little Rahm, Lowry, Macintire, Theegala, and Koepka

 

[WDIK2]

Need at least 4 of the 6 to make the cut to even have a remote chance heading into the weekend.

Entry #1
Rory McIlroy - Salary: $11,000
Collin Morikawa - Salary: $9,300
Bryson DeChambeau - Salary: $9,000
Sepp Straka - Salary: $7,400
Maverick McNealy - Salary: $6,900
Kevin Yu - Salary: $6,400


Entry #2
Scottie Scheffler - Salary: $11,900
Joaquin Niemann - Salary: $8,200
Patrick Cantlay - Salary: $8,000
Robert MacIntyre - Salary: $7,600
Russell Henley - Salary: $7,600
Nick Taylor - Salary: $6,600

 

[gump]

Collin leads the field in SG:Approach over the last 6 tournaments, which is possibly the most important stat at Augusta. Also 3 top 10s last 3 years.
Makes a lot of sense...but I'm guessing now will be a very popular choice in Pools especially.

 

[Judge Smails]

Need at least 4 of the 6 to make the cut to even have a remote chance heading into the weekend.

Entry #1
Rory McIlroy - Salary: $11,000
Collin Morikawa - Salary: $9,300
Bryson DeChambeau - Salary: $9,000
Sepp Straka - Salary: $7,400
Maverick McNealy - Salary: $6,900
Kevin Yu - Salary: $6,400


Entry #2
Scottie Scheffler - Salary: $11,900
Joaquin Niemann - Salary: $8,200
Patrick Cantlay - Salary: $8,000
Robert MacIntyre - Salary: $7,600
Russell Henley - Salary: $7,600
Nick Taylor - Salary: $6,600

Niemann played so so bad in his last LIV event that I wouldn't touch him. Looked like he totally lost it

 

[Judge Smails]

I'm going with a little Rahm, Lowry, Macintire, Theegala, and Koepka

one Euro at least always pops up. Not sure who it will be. Aberg was big in the majors last year - haven't seen how he's playing lately. I honestly don't now how to rank the LIV guys right now. I think DeChambeau is still tops for me there. Sergio is hitting it really well too

 

[General Malaise]

I can't back a guy that puts mittens on his toy dog. I can't back a guy that doesn't have a real dog either.

 

[General Malaise]

I think he's a bit of a doofus, but I've got him on a few cards in the Masters. He's getting a ton of love from The Athletic and other pundits, so the word is out.

I might throw a little down on Koepka even though I have no idea how he's been playing. Guy seems to rise to the occasion.

 

[SouthJersey]

I'm going with a little Rahm, Lowry, Macintire, Theegala, and Koepka

one Euro at least always pops up. Not sure who it will be. Aberg was big in the majors last year - haven't seen how he's playing lately. I honestly don't now how to rank the LIV guys right now. I think DeChambeau is still tops for me there. Sergio is hitting it really well too

Aberg was light out when he won at Torrey last month. He's played mediocre recently, missed the cut last week. Still can probably turn it on at any time. Rahm and Bryson were playing well last week though faded in the final round.

I like Macintyre because of the lefty bias at Augusta.

 

[WDIK2]

Need at least 4 of the 6 to make the cut to even have a remote chance heading into the weekend.

Entry #1
Rory McIlroy - Salary: $11,000
Collin Morikawa - Salary: $9,300
Bryson DeChambeau - Salary: $9,000
Sepp Straka - Salary: $7,400
Maverick McNealy - Salary: $6,900
Kevin Yu - Salary: $6,400


Entry #2
Scottie Scheffler - Salary: $11,900
Joaquin Niemann - Salary: $8,200
Patrick Cantlay - Salary: $8,000
Robert MacIntyre - Salary: $7,600
Russell Henley - Salary: $7,600
Nick Taylor - Salary: $6,600

Niemann played so so bad in his last LIV event that I wouldn't touch him. Looked like he totally lost it

Yeah, I saw that. He has won twice on LIV this year. Nothing is set in stone here until Thursday morning.

Others about the same price as Niemann:

Brooks
Matsuyama
Spieth <---- I'm staying away.
Lowry
Hovland
Fleetwood <---- I've picked him too many times in these pools. Good cut maker, but never scores well for me.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Collin leads the field in SG:Approach over the last 6 tournaments, which is possibly the most important stat at Augusta.

Thanks. Can you elaborate more on that and why it's predictive for wins at Augusta?

Approach the Green | Categories | PGA TOUR Stats

Top 10 Finished | Scoring Average | Greens Percentage | Scrambling

www.pgatour.com

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Guys I’m invested in to win and/or finish high

DeChambeau
Schauffle
Cam Smith
Corey Conners
Zalatoris
MacIntyre

Planning to fade Rory in H2H matchups

 

[Zow]

Just drafted Morikawa at 1.3 in a Masters draft (4 rounds, drafting for highest finisher).

 

[Harry Frogfish]

I like the pick and would love to see him or Xander win it but both are in the top 5 of favorites to do so.

In searching for a long shot, Jason Day at 80-1 piqued my interest. I'd like to find a couple names flying under the radar. He finished 2nd there once (forever ago), w/ two other top 10s. Not super compelling. Played decently the last couple years there. I don't know, total wildcard, obviously. I do think he could handle the pressure if he actually ended up in the hunt. At least moreso than a lot of the names in the tier he's in. But I don't follow golf like some of you do here.

So, golf experts, is that a total waste of money? Or what are some other names at juicy prices you'd consider?

 

[gump]

Collin leads the field in SG:Approach over the last 6 tournaments, which is possibly the most important stat at Augusta.

Thanks. Can you elaborate more on that and why it's predictive for wins at Augusta?

Approach the Green | Categories | PGA TOUR Stats

Top 10 Finished | Scoring Average | Greens Percentage | Scrambling

www.pgatour.com

Augusta is a 2nd shot golf course. You hear a lot about green speed, but the teeth are more that they are undulated, elevated, and demand accuracy and distance control. The best iron players ever are not coincidentally Nicklaus, Woods, Mickelson...recently guys like Garcia, Matsuyama, Speith, Scott played to that strength.

 

[gump]

JT has a new caddie this week (Homa's)

 

[gump]

You have to fade Cam Smith for this reason alone...

 

[gump]

6-Tiered Pool (18th of 200 at TPC):
Rory / Cantlay / Straka / Keegan / Spaun / Glover

Leaning on strong iron play and fading LIV in general, other than maybe Rahm or Koepka straight up...also taking Scottie and JT straight up.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

I like the pick and would love to see him or Xander win it but both are in the top 5 of favorites to do so.

In searching for a long shot, Jason Day at 80-1 piqued my interest. I'd like to find a couple names flying under the radar. He finished 2nd there once (forever ago), w/ two other top 10s. Not super compelling. Played decently the last couple years there. I don't know, total wildcard, obviously. I do think he could handle the pressure if he actually ended up in the hunt. At least moreso than a lot of the names in the tier he's in. But I don't follow golf like some of you do here.

So, golf experts, is that a total waste of money? Or what are some other names at juicy prices you'd consider?

I have money on him and Adam Scott, previous Master winners are good bets and both are playing good golf right now.

 

[General Malaise]

6-Tiered Pool (18th of 200 at TPC):
Rory / Cantlay / Straka / Keegan / Spaun / Glover

Leaning on strong iron play and fading LIV in general, other than maybe Rahm or Koepka straight up...also taking Scottie and JT straight up.

Yeah, I've got Glover on a card too. Nice dark horse.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

6-Tiered Pool (18th of 200 at TPC):
Rory / Cantlay / Straka / Keegan / Spaun / Glover

Leaning on strong iron play and fading LIV in general, other than maybe Rahm or Koepka straight up...also taking Scottie and JT straight up.

back to back hasn't happened since Tiger in 2000/2001, Scottie has 2 in 3 years but I don't think he makes it 3 in 4.

current bets are

$50 Morikawa at +1600
$2 on Day +8000
$1 Scott +15000, $1 McCarthy and English +20000
$10 Cam Smith +5500
$10 Fletwood +4000
$10 Koepka +3500
$10 JT +2000

I don't have a gambling problem....

 

[CGRdrJoe]

other weird stats
Adam Scott has made 15 straight cuts, Sergio has only made 1 out of his last 6.
Koepka has finished tied second twice and been tied for the lead after 18, 36 or 54 5 times. I'm going to sprinkle some Koepka round 1 leader bets in there.

 

[BlackCrowes]

i don't watch LIV much, how's Koepka been playing?

 

[Scoresman]

I loved him on Whose Line Is It Anyway. No idea he golfed too.

 

[General Malaise]

6-Tiered Pool (18th of 200 at TPC):
Rory / Cantlay / Straka / Keegan / Spaun / Glover

Leaning on strong iron play and fading LIV in general, other than maybe Rahm or Koepka straight up...also taking Scottie and JT straight up.

back to back hasn't happened since Tiger in 2000/2001, Scottie has 2 in 3 years but I don't think he makes it 3 in 4.

current bets are

$50 Morikawa at +1600
$2 on Day +8000
$1 Scott +15000, $1 McCarthy and English +20000
$10 Cam Smith +5500
$10 Fletwood +4000
$10 Koepka +3500
$10 JT +2000

I don't have a gambling problem....

Not if you win......

 

[gump]

6-Tiered Pool (18th of 200 at TPC):
Rory / Cantlay / Straka / Keegan / Spaun / Glover

Leaning on strong iron play and fading LIV in general, other than maybe Rahm or Koepka straight up...also taking Scottie and JT straight up.

back to back hasn't happened since Tiger in 2000/2001, Scottie has 2 in 3 years but I don't think he makes it 3 in 4.

I agree that I'm not 'really' betting on him to win vs the odds and his current state...but...I think it's probably similar to gambling on golf in the early '00's. Throw a hedge on Scottie (Tiger) in some way in case he waltzes to a 5 shot win.

 

[General Malaise]

I don't have Scottie anywhere. If he beats me he beats me. Can't justify the price tag he comes with or the odds being offered.

Now, if he's in contention, I can always revisit. Live betting is a beautiful option.

 

[BlackCrowes]

i do like Bhatia. that's a right to left golf course

 

[Harry Frogfish]

So check this out, I texted a buddy in Vegas 1/2 hour ago to see if he can get me down on Xander. He says sure and that his book had X at 20-1. I took it right there and in a matter of minutes he sent a copy of the play. But at 25-1 (not 20-1)!

That is rare. 1.) For odds to change that much that fast (25%). 2.) IN my favor. 3.) On golf?

I mean what could have possibly occurred to make that happen? This isn't a sport where you get some phantom plunger coming in with a large sum on one that causes others to drop. The sheer size of the field doesn't present those scenarios. And bookmakers certainly aren't going to lower odds dramatically to align with "true" odds, or at least not by that amount.

The only thing I can figure is X simply didn't take much money leading up and we happen to just get lucky that this book was trying to fetch more money on him and whomever else was they had low exposure to.

 

[General Malaise]

Xander 18-1 on DK.

 

[Zow]

So check this out, I texted a buddy in Vegas 1/2 hour ago to see if he can get me down on Xander. He says sure and that his book had X at 20-1. I took it right there and in a matter of minutes he sent a copy of the play. But at 25-1 (not 20-1)!

That is rare. 1.) For odds to change that much that fast (25%). 2.) IN my favor. 3.) On golf?

I mean what could have possibly occurred to make that happen? This isn't a sport where you get some phantom plunger coming in with a large sum on one that causes others to drop. The sheer size of the field doesn't present those scenarios. And bookmakers certainly aren't going to lower odds dramatically to align with "true" odds, or at least not by that amount.

The only thing I can figure is X simply didn't take much money leading up and we happen to just get lucky that this book was trying to fetch more money on him and whomever else was they had low exposure to.

My guess is the bold.

Last I read, they are exposed on Bryson.

 

[General Malaise]

Whittled down my LIV guys to Koepka because he's done it and he can tune out the noise. And Niemann who just has a feathery short game I like; just love the way he swings 'em.

Got a tiny play on Bryson to be the 1st round leader at +2800. He's had nice starts here before and I've always found him interesting.

 

[Nipsey]

What about the ending of the Arnold Palmer Invitational has you this confident?

I think he's the kind of player that a finish like that early in the season will only fuel him.

 

[Nipsey]

What odds are you seeing? 16:1 or so?

I got 16 and 18 but now down to 12.