Here is his post:
I'm not sure his opinion is worth more than yours - but if you disagree with the above in this case at least I value his more.
Here is a list of all the TE drafted in the Top 32 picks of the draft. For each player, I used their CareerAV total and compared it to the entirety of their draft class. For example, TJ Hockenson was drafted 8th overall. But among the 2019 Draft Class, he ranks 48th in CareerAV.
Player Year Pick AV
TJ Hockenson 2019 8 48
Noah Fant 2019 20 55
Hayden Hurst 2018 25 66
OJ Howard 2017 19 85
Evan Engram 2017 23 55
David Njoku 2017 29 102
Eric Ebron 2014 10 56
Tyler Eifert 2013 21 71
Jermaine Gresham 2010 21 63
Brandon Pettigrew 2009 20 72
Dustin Keller 2008 30 76
Greg Olsen 2007 31 17
Vernon Davis 2006 6 33
Marcedes Lewis 2006 28 61
Heath Miller 2005 30 31
Kellen Winslow 2004 6 39
Ben Watson 2004 32 33
Dallas Clark 2003 24 25
Jeremy Shockey 2002 14 24
Daniel Graham 2002 21 85
Jerramy Stevens 2002 28 86
Todd Heap 2001 31 38
Bubba Franks 2000 14 86
Anthony Becht 2000 27 105
Tony Gonzalez 1997 13 6
David LaFleur 1997 22 105
Rickey Dudley 1996 9 63
Kyle Brady 1995 9 64
Mark Bruener 1995 27 101
Irv Smith 1993 20 103
Derek Brown 1992 14 128
Johnny Mitchell 1992 15 84
Reggie Johnson 1991 30 114
Eric Green 1990 21 53
Keith Jackson 1988 13 46
That's 35 players. Of those, only Greg Olsen and Tony Gonzalez scored higher than their draft position (although several were very close). Only 4 players earned first round production grades. 16 players produced at a 3rd round level or worse.
Overall, the average draft position was Pick 20 . . . while the average ROI was as Player 65.
Based on that, IMO, TE do not make for worthwhile first round picks. If folks want to say that CareerAV is a dumb statistic and / or it does not treat TE fairly, that's a different debate.