550 Comments Regarding Value Plays (1 Viewer)

[bagger.]

while unlikely, it's still within the realm of possibility, and that is the reason he gets drafted so highly.

if the staff of this site is advocating drafting players who have been unable to replicate top 10 QB performance throughout their career at an inflated price while other proven QBs are available 3 rounds later because it is in the "realm of possibility" standards have changed.

monkeys coming out of my butt are in the realm of possibility. they'll be dancing on the 50 yard line when vick is the #1 qb in fantasy football.

you talk like he's been in the league for 10 years, one top 3 finish out of two full seasons isn't the worst % in the world.

he's been in the NFL for 4 seasons...i don't get credit if he gets hurt by scrambling and gets his leg snapped in half. it's about production...nothing more nothing less.after his #3 QB year he followed that up with a solid #39 and #12 QB ranking.

he has to perform at the top of his game in order to barely get value for his draft pick while QBs drafted significantly later than him are virtually guaranteed to do better...or similarly as well and you get the point differential between taking a RB, WR, or TE in the 4th and a QB in the 7th (like Plummer or Favre).

it's really not that hard to figure out who is the better bet on draft day.

my new rule is for a QB to throw for over 3k yards and 20 TDs in one season in his career to at least consider in the first 7 rounds of the draft....too bad vick goes in the early 4th.

 

[Draftnik]

Where are the PK's???

 

[bagger.]

What exactly are we arguing about? 24 people said he was overrated. Isn't that what you are saying too Bagger? Although some people did not say it, no one said he was a steal at his current ADP. And with 24 votes saying he is overvalued, I would expect his ADP to drop a good round until he does something cool in the preseason and the hype starts up again...LOL

lol true.i just was trying to figure out how aaron was trying to justify it.

 

[bagger.]

Where are the PK's???

no PKs or DTs.

 

[David Dodds]

Where are the PK's???

no PKs or DTs.

Herman (Capybara) is going to be very MAD

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

What exactly are we arguing about?  24 people said he was overrated.  Isn't that what you are saying too Bagger?  Although some people did not say it, no one said he was a steal at his current ADP.  And with 24 votes saying he is overvalued, I would expect his ADP to drop a good round until he does something cool in the preseason and the hype starts up again...LOL

lol true.i just was trying to figure out how aaron was trying to justify it.

I said people draft him high because of his potential and that he's a high risk/high reward player. (his past #3 finish and rushing stats separate him from most of the other QBs he's being compared against)you're picking a fight with someone who basically agrees with you.

 

[bagger.]

What exactly are we arguing about?  24 people said he was overrated.  Isn't that what you are saying too Bagger?  Although some people did not say it, no one said he was a steal at his current ADP.  And with 24 votes saying he is overvalued, I would expect his ADP to drop a good round until he does something cool in the preseason and the hype starts up again...LOL

lol true.i just was trying to figure out how aaron was trying to justify it.

I said people draft him high because of his potential and that he's a high risk/high reward player.what's so hard to understand?

you're picking a fight with someone who basically agrees with you.

i'm sorry. :(

 

[Couch Potato]

Bagger's just in a mood tonight.

 

[bagger.]

Bagger's just in a    mood tonight.   

sorry (again).

it happens sometimes.



i owe aaron a couple beers whenever i meet him.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

i owe aaron a couple beers whenever i meet him.

I'll be in Vegas for WCOFF weekend. you down?

 

[Mike Anderson]

the worst part is...vick isn't even the most overvalued player there is...

rhymes with wedgie pain.

:X

Actually, the Most over rated rymes with Bowe Garrington

 

[bagger.]

i owe aaron a couple beers whenever i meet him.

I'll be in Vegas for WCOFF weekend. you down?

i will be there...

 

[Kleck.]

the worst part is...vick isn't even the most overvalued player there is...

rhymes with wedgie pain.

:X

I think he's a overvalued as the #9 WR as well and I would not take him that high, but I'm having a hard time dropping him too much lower (late teens). The thing that keeps coming back to me is that if Minny could produce two top 15 WR's for six of seven years and two top 10 WR's for four of seven years, why can't Indy do something similar for a second straight year?I don't put Wayne in the category of Moss or Carter, but I would place him equal to or better than Jake Reed. For four straight years Carter and Reed both finished #16 or better.

1994 - Carter 10, Reed 14

1995 - Carter 4, Reed 13

1996 - Carter 7, Reed 9

1997 - Carter 4, Reed 16

Indy's offense is plenty capable of having two top 10 WR's again, and it's definitely realistic for them to have two top 15 WR's.

I'm just really torn on Wayne right now and I'm almost certain that someone else will take him before I am willing to in every draft I participate in this year. The thing that bothers me the most is that I'm just not sure what's wrong, taking him at the 3/4 turn, or me passing on him there.

 

[Rovers]

Pretty cool stuff..... when do the IDP Value Plays report come out? Half joking, but I would love to see this done on a smaller scale for LB's. That would be

 

[Unlucky]

My favorite page is DeShaun Foster's. It's sort of like Vick's, except one lone crazy staffer went against the grain and marked him undervalued.

Crazy is right. Basing Foster's talent on his 174 YD performance against the AWESOME Kansas City Defense is crazy. I used to think you knew a thing or two about football.

 

[Unlucky]

"Unlucky" - Carolina was forced to pass a lot more last year due to injuries to all of their RBs. The defense also had a down year, forcing more late game passing. With the loss of Muhammad, the drafting of Shelton, and the return of Foster and Davis, Carolina figures to get back to running the ball much more. This will reduce Delhomme’s opportunities. He’s currently the #23 QB on my board.

Unless he get's injured...when hell freezes over.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we?Fox has been the head coach for 3 years.

2002: 464 pass attempts, 452 rush attempts

2003: 461 pass attempts, 521 rush attempts

2004: 536 pass attempts, 422 rush attempts

Now, which one doesn't belong? I'm going to say 2004. Injuries to Davis and Foster, plus a weaker D forced a lot of passing for Delhomme. The RBs return, along with a new rookie. The top WR from last year is gone, and he was huge. So, I think it's foolish to think Delhomme will be anywhere near last year's numbers. Maybe he won't be #23, but he's overvalued.

And no, I don't work for Footballguys - there was talk of me running leagues, but it fell through and I went out on my own with Phenoms FF. The only thing I do for FBG's is correct all of the errors in Dodds' projections.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Basing Foster's talent on his 174 YD performance against the AWESOME Kansas City Defense is crazy.

Forget the KC game. Are you suggesting that Foster's talent is in dispute?

 

[Family Matters]

Just finished reading the value page. Wow! That's huge. I started 2 hours ago-not. Just wanted wanted to say I felt honored to asked to contribute. That was pretty cool.What I found interesting is that when push came to shove and you had to put your name to it, it made think twice about what I was saying. That was a good excercise because it gave a different perspective on player analysis.To the folks that contributed:nice job! The write ups are awesome, as I expected. I don't agree with all of them and I'm sure not everyone agrees with all of mine. But just the same, it give some balance when considering where to draft certain players.BTW-Don't think I'll be taking Vick early. Apparently, he's over valued.

 

[David Yudkin]

"Unlucky" - Carolina was forced to pass a lot more last year due to injuries to all of their RBs. The defense also had a down year, forcing more late game passing. With the loss of Muhammad, the drafting of Shelton, and the return of Foster and Davis, Carolina figures to get back to running the ball much more. This will reduce Delhomme’s opportunities. He’s currently the #23 QB on my board.

Unless he get's injured...when hell freezes over.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we?Fox has been the head coach for 3 years.

2002: 464 pass attempts, 452 rush attempts

2003: 461 pass attempts, 521 rush attempts

2004: 536 pass attempts, 422 rush attempts

Now, which one doesn't belong? I'm going to say 2004. Injuries to Davis and Foster, plus a weaker D forced a lot of passing for Delhomme. The RBs return, along with a new rookie. The top WR from last year is gone, and he was huge. So, I think it's foolish to think Delhomme will be anywhere near last year's numbers. Maybe he won't be #23, but he's overvalued.

And no, I don't work for Footballguys - there was talk of me running leagues, but it fell through and I went out on my own with Phenoms FF. The only thing I do for FBG's is correct all of the errors in Dodds' projections.

In 2003, Delhomme ranked as the #15 QB with all the run production you mentioned. In that season, he didn't even start the first few games. His ADP used here was at #15.At this point, I would think Delhomme has improved, and I'm not sure that we can say the running game or OL is better than that year. (I would say that the running game is worse, but that doesn't mean the team won't try to run more.)

Even if we ignore last year's numbers, I don't think Delhomme's ADP is too far out of whack--but I don't see him falling into the 20s as far as EOY ranking.

 

[Family Matters]

It was difficult for me to find much to criticize in the TE ADPs. It was like shooting fish in a barrel for the other positions though.

Deep Sleepers will be a walk in the park as well. Hopefully we'll be using recent ADPs or guys like Samie Parker or Toefield are going to be on everybody's short list.

Also, a lot of writeups on both sides of the Wiggins debate.

I agree LHUCKS. The TE position was the most challenging by far. I had to think a little more on that one.

 

[Jason Wood]

It was difficult for me to find much to criticize in the TE ADPs.  It was like shooting fish in a barrel for the other positions though.

Deep Sleepers will be a walk in the park as well.  Hopefully we'll be using recent ADPs or guys like Samie Parker or Toefield are going to be on everybody's short list.

Also, a lot of writeups on both sides of the Wiggins debate.

I agree LHUCKS. The TE position was the most challenging by far. I had to think a little more on that one.

We did this exercise for the magazine a few weeks ago and used an earlier ADP. During that time Chris Cooley was in the top 150 and he was my easy choice at TE, but with people getting some sanity back and Cooley falling out of contention, it was definitely more difficult to pick an undervalued TE.

 

[RBM]

This is great stuffNice work

 

[Tick]

It was difficult for me to find much to criticize in the TE ADPs.  It was like shooting fish in a barrel for the other positions though.

Deep Sleepers will be a walk in the park as well.  Hopefully we'll be using recent ADPs or guys like Samie Parker or Toefield are going to be on everybody's short list.

Also, a lot of writeups on both sides of the Wiggins debate.

I agree LHUCKS. The TE position was the most challenging by far. I had to think a little more on that one.

Yup, partly because there were only about 15 guys listed. I skimped on that one - only one value play listed. I was going to use Dallas Clark as a reach, but the actual difference between his ADP and my projections was only like three spots.

 

[Bloom]

to pile on to the vick discussion (i was one of the 24 panning him):vick's rushing stats make him attractive, but to me they are the crux of why he's such a risk, let me explain...1) if vick is piling up stats on the ground that means he is more exposed to injuries. It is troubling to watch vick run and not employ the slide, the duck out of bounds, or the duck and cover when youre about to get hit. No QB in the league exposes himself to as many big hits as vick.2) if vick is piling up stats on the ground that means he is not evolving in the passing game. the defensive game plan on vick is clear: force him to pass - so much so that you shouldnt even honor the pass when is vick out of the pocket. More and more excellent athletes are coming into the league, guys with the speed to catch vick and size to punish him when they do. The fact that Vick has little to nothing in his WR corps only makes this factor worse - even more reason to force vick to beat you with his arm, not his legs.Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

 

[joffer]

Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

then how did he already do it with Brian Finneran, Trevor Gaylor, Willie Jackson, and Shawn Jefferson?

 

[Bloom]

Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

then how did he already do it with Brian Finneran, Trevor Gaylor, Willie Jackson, and Shawn Jefferson?

i think the league was still trying to put together the "book" on vick at that point, he was an unknown quantity - also in 2002, culpepper had his worst season, manning was still mortal, and mcnabb missed 6 games. they have raised the "top 3" bar a lot higher since then.

 

[joffer]

Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

then how did he already do it with Brian Finneran, Trevor Gaylor, Willie Jackson, and Shawn Jefferson?

i think the league was still trying to put together the "book" on vick at that point, he was an unknown quantity - also in 2002, culpepper had his worst season, manning was still mortal, and mcnabb missed 6 games. they have raised the "top 3" bar a lot higher since then.

In a QB scoring system of 20/4/-1, the average value of QB3 over the last 5 years is 331.2. Vick's total in 2002 was 330. 330 last year would have put Vick at QB4.

 

[Joe T]

Good concept.I guess the part I don't like is that you end up with Julius Jones, Clinton Portis, and Domanick Davis in any area near Willis McGahee on an over valued list.McGahee going near the top 5 is the definition of overvalued. I still don't think people are looking at what this guy really did in '04.Portis, Jones, and Davis are all under rated and the fact that they show up on an over rated list makes me chuckle.

 

[GregR_2]

Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

then how did he already do it with Brian Finneran, Trevor Gaylor, Willie Jackson, and Shawn Jefferson?

The issue for me is that in this scoring system, Vick was (IIRC) the 14th best QB last year in FP/G. Now I think he can do better in his second year in the system, and I also think he could end up with more touches than he had this last year. In 15 games he had 441 touches (rushes and passing attempts combined), which isn't much for a QB. I believe 17 QBs had more passing attempts (not including rushes) than he had combined passes and rushes.However, after giving him what I feel could be reasonable improvements he could achieve in both number of touches and production with those touches in the passing game, he barely reaches being worth being taken as the 4th best QB. And I'm far from certain that he's going to see those improvements, after all his team was very successful with their running attack and I don't see a huge impetus for change in the ratio of offensive plays.

So we're talking about a player who has to achieve the larger portion of his upside compared to his performance last year just to reach the spot he's being drafted. That's a pretty good definition of a bad value to me before you even consider other things like his having more injury risk due to having more runs that subject him to real full-contact hits.

 

[SammyJankis]

It was difficult for me to find much to criticize in the TE ADPs. It was like shooting fish in a barrel for the other positions though.

Deep Sleepers will be a walk in the park as well. Hopefully we'll be using recent ADPs or guys like Samie Parker or Toefield are going to be on everybody's short list.

Also, a lot of writeups on both sides of the Wiggins debate.

I agree LHUCKS. The TE position was the most challenging by far. I had to think a little more on that one.

I agree as well. At the other positions, it was so many players jumped out at me, it was tough to limit it to a few positions. Tight end was the toughest of the three. There weren't a lot of obvious candidates.

What's interesting is the deep sleepers list should have lost of candidates from the TE position. How many votes will Teyo Johnson get? I'll set the over/under at 15.

 

[Mike]

But when 3/4 of the entries say Vick is overvalued and no one thinks he is undervalued, then that is telling you something.

Yeah, its called Groupthink Sorry, couldn't resist. Nice job Dave and company

 

[Tau837]

Let's look at some numbers, shall we?

Fox has been the head coach for 3 years.

2002: 464 pass attempts, 452 rush attempts

2003: 461 pass attempts, 521 rush attempts

2004: 536 pass attempts, 422 rush attempts

Now, which one doesn't belong? I'm going to say 2004. Injuries to Davis and Foster, plus a weaker D forced a lot of passing for Delhomme. The RBs return, along with a new rookie. The top WR from last year is gone, and he was huge. So, I think it's foolish to think Delhomme will be anywhere near last year's numbers. Maybe he won't be #23, but he's overvalued.

In 2003, Delhomme ranked as the #15 QB with all the run production you mentioned. In that season, he didn't even start the first few games. His ADP used here was at #15.At this point, I would think Delhomme has improved, and I'm not sure that we can say the running game or OL is better than that year. (I would say that the running game is worse, but that doesn't mean the team won't try to run more.)

Even if we ignore last year's numbers, I don't think Delhomme's ADP is too far out of whack--but I don't see him falling into the 20s as far as EOY ranking.

Regarding Delhomme in 2003, looking at year end numbers is quite misleading. Here is a post I made about his progression in an old Steve Smith thread:

And the passing offense is on an upward trend:

- In his first 8 games last season, Delhomme averaged 174 passing yards per game and threw 8 TDs.

- In his last 8 regular season games, he averaged 228 passing yards per game and threw 11 TDs.

- In the playoffs, he averaged 247 passing yards per game and threw 6 TDs in 4 games.

Do you expect the Carolina passing game to fall back to last in the league? Isn't it more likely that it will improve? I expect Jake Delhomme to be better with 20 games of starting experience. Assuming he remains healthy, I expect Jake to throw for 3500+ yards and 20+ TDs.

Since Unlucky seemed to focus his post on attempts, we should note that Delhomme's increase in passing attempts actually is a trend that dates back further than last season.1st 8 games 2003: 26.5 passing attempts per game, and that is inflated by an outlier game of 49 attempts (second highest was only 27)... he averaged 23.3 in the other 7 games

2nd 8 games 2003: 29.6 passing attempts per game

2004 regular season: 33.3 passing attempts per game

When he started off in 2003, he was a first time starter. As he has gained experience, he has been given more opportunities, and he has excelled. I expect Fox to continue to go with his strength on offense... Delhomme.

I don't necessarily expect him to repeat as QB7, but I do expect him to be in the top 12 or so (barring injury, of course).

 

[bagger.]

Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

then how did he already do it with Brian Finneran, Trevor Gaylor, Willie Jackson, and Shawn Jefferson?

He did it via 700+ yards on the ground and 8 TDs...those 8 rushing TDs are an aberration. He has not even been able to get half that in a season before or since.The bottom line is that Vick is a barely startable QB, and is being taken in the 4th round based on ESPN Sportscenter hype and 1 good running year.

I do not think Vick will get 3k yards passing this year or 20+ passing TDs, which means again he'll be forced to have monster numbers on the ground just to even be startable.

And you want to take a 4th round pick and use it on that?

 

[SammyJankis]

"Unlucky" - Carolina was forced to pass a lot more last year due to injuries to all of their RBs. The defense also had a down year, forcing more late game passing. With the loss of Muhammad, the drafting of Shelton, and the return of Foster and Davis, Carolina figures to get back to running the ball much more. This will reduce Delhomme’s opportunities. He’s currently the #23 QB on my board.

Unless he get's injured...when hell freezes over.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we?Fox has been the head coach for 3 years.

2002: 464 pass attempts, 452 rush attempts

2003: 461 pass attempts, 521 rush attempts

2004: 536 pass attempts, 422 rush attempts

Now, which one doesn't belong? I'm going to say 2004. Injuries to Davis and Foster, plus a weaker D forced a lot of passing for Delhomme. The RBs return, along with a new rookie. The top WR from last year is gone, and he was huge. So, I think it's foolish to think Delhomme will be anywhere near last year's numbers. Maybe he won't be #23, but he's overvalued.

And no, I don't work for Footballguys - there was talk of me running leagues, but it fell through and I went out on my own with Phenoms FF. The only thing I do for FBG's is correct all of the errors in Dodds' projections.

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

His 2nd half of 2004 saw a slight spike in yards, but a big spike in touchdowns. I'd expect his passing TDs to settle down a bit. But his passing yards have been very consitant over the last 24 games. In that stretch, he's averaging 1903 yards per eight games. His passing TDs have been risen each eight games as well, although I would expect that to dip down from the 17 he threw over the last eight games of 2004.

The Panthers did throw the ball a bit more in 2004 than normal, but that point is overblown. The fact is that Jake has been a consitant producer over the last year and a half. His development is being undervalued while the "the Panthers didn't have a run game" argument gets too much weight.

Let's just project Jake for 2005 using his average numbers over the last 24 games. That would give him 3806 passing yards, 27 passing TDs and a rushing TD.

That makes him a major value play as the 15th QB off the board.

I'd like to see projections for Delhomme that would not make him a value play as the 15th drafted QB.

 

[SammyJankis]

Let's look at some numbers, shall we?

Fox has been the head coach for 3 years.

2002: 464 pass attempts, 452 rush attempts

2003: 461 pass attempts, 521 rush attempts

2004: 536 pass attempts, 422 rush attempts

Now, which one doesn't belong? I'm going to say 2004. Injuries to Davis and Foster, plus a weaker D forced a lot of passing for Delhomme. The RBs return, along with a new rookie. The top WR from last year is gone, and he was huge. So, I think it's foolish to think Delhomme will be anywhere near last year's numbers. Maybe he won't be #23, but he's overvalued.

In 2003, Delhomme ranked as the #15 QB with all the run production you mentioned. In that season, he didn't even start the first few games. His ADP used here was at #15.At this point, I would think Delhomme has improved, and I'm not sure that we can say the running game or OL is better than that year. (I would say that the running game is worse, but that doesn't mean the team won't try to run more.)

Even if we ignore last year's numbers, I don't think Delhomme's ADP is too far out of whack--but I don't see him falling into the 20s as far as EOY ranking.

Regarding Delhomme in 2003, looking at year end numbers is quite misleading. Here is a post I made about his progression in an old Steve Smith thread:

And the passing offense is on an upward trend:

- In his first 8 games last season, Delhomme averaged 174 passing yards per game and threw 8 TDs.

- In his last 8 regular season games, he averaged 228 passing yards per game and threw 11 TDs.

- In the playoffs, he averaged 247 passing yards per game and threw 6 TDs in 4 games.

Do you expect the Carolina passing game to fall back to last in the league? Isn't it more likely that it will improve? I expect Jake Delhomme to be better with 20 games of starting experience. Assuming he remains healthy, I expect Jake to throw for 3500+ yards and 20+ TDs.

Since Unlucky seemed to focus his post on attempts, we should note that Delhomme's increase in passing attempts actually is a trend that dates back further than last season.1st 8 games 2003: 26.5 passing attempts per game, and that is inflated by an outlier game of 49 attempts (second highest was only 27)... he averaged 23.3 in the other 7 games

2nd 8 games 2003: 29.6 passing attempts per game

2004 regular season: 33.3 passing attempts per game

When he started off in 2003, he was a first time starter. As he has gained experience, he has been given more opportunities, and he has excelled. I expect Fox to continue to go with his strength on offense... Delhomme.

I don't necessarily expect him to repeat as QB7, but I do expect him to be in the top 12 or so (barring injury, of course).

It seemed we were writing very similar posts at the same time.

 

[Family Matters]

Dont get me wrong, Vick could be a top 3 fantasy QB down the line, but only when he develops the skill that culpepper and mcnabb has shown - the ability to force defenses to honor both the run and the pass when they break out of the pocket. i doubt it happens this year with the very weak WR corps atlanta has.

then how did he already do it with Brian Finneran, Trevor Gaylor, Willie Jackson, and Shawn Jefferson?

i think the league was still trying to put together the "book" on vick at that point, he was an unknown quantity - also in 2002, culpepper had his worst season, manning was still mortal, and mcnabb missed 6 games. they have raised the "top 3" bar a lot higher since then.

Good post. Defenses do adjust and learn from others on how to defend.

 

[Draftnik]

Where are the PK's???

no PKs or DTs.

Herman (Capybara) is going to be very MAD

LOL, I was just kidding in the first place.This is an awesome tool -- very helpful at this stage of the off season as I consider different draft strategies and scenarios

 

[BassNBrew]

"Unlucky" - Carolina was forced to pass a lot more last year due to injuries to all of their RBs. The defense also had a down year, forcing more late game passing. With the loss of Muhammad, the drafting of Shelton, and the return of Foster and Davis, Carolina figures to get back to running the ball much more. This will reduce Delhomme’s opportunities. He’s currently the #23 QB on my board.

Unless he get's injured...when hell freezes over.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we?Fox has been the head coach for 3 years.

2002: 464 pass attempts, 452 rush attempts

2003: 461 pass attempts, 521 rush attempts

2004: 536 pass attempts, 422 rush attempts

Now, which one doesn't belong? I'm going to say 2004. Injuries to Davis and Foster, plus a weaker D forced a lot of passing for Delhomme. The RBs return, along with a new rookie. The top WR from last year is gone, and he was huge. So, I think it's foolish to think Delhomme will be anywhere near last year's numbers. Maybe he won't be #23, but he's overvalued.

And no, I don't work for Footballguys - there was talk of me running leagues, but it fell through and I went out on my own with Phenoms FF. The only thing I do for FBG's is correct all of the errors in Dodds' projections.

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

His 2nd half of 2004 saw a slight spike in yards, but a big spike in touchdowns. I'd expect his passing TDs to settle down a bit. But his passing yards have been very consitant over the last 24 games. In that stretch, he's averaging 1903 yards per eight games. His passing TDs have been risen each eight games as well, although I would expect that to dip down from the 17 he threw over the last eight games of 2004.

The Panthers did throw the ball a bit more in 2004 than normal, but that point is overblown. The fact is that Jake has been a consitant producer over the last year and a half. His development is being undervalued while the "the Panthers didn't have a run game" argument gets too much weight.

Let's just project Jake for 2005 using his average numbers over the last 24 games. That would give him 3806 passing yards, 27 passing TDs and a rushing TD.

That makes him a major value play as the 15th QB off the board.

I'd like to see projections for Delhomme that would not make him a value play as the 15th drafted QB.

Thank you for saving me the trouble of pointing out Unlucky's numerous errors. A #23 ranking would be in Grossman/Manning range. Excellent use of splits gentlemen. That was the exact tell tale sign that had me on the Delhomme bandwagon last year as a boardline #1QB.

 

[Tau837]

It seemed we were writing very similar posts at the same time.

 

[bostonfred]

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:

1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

Great post, Sammy. The major glaring downside about Delhomme, though, is that he lost Muhammy. I like him, but I'm not sold on Steve Smith returning perfectly healthy, or Keary Colbert having a good 2nd year. Sell me on it, because I like Delhomme a lot as a player.

 

[Unlucky]

I looked at my Delhomme projections. The grouping is tight for the QBs, so 25 more fantasy points and Delhomme jumps from #23 to #16. So, I'm not quite as down on Delhomme as it looks. However, I still think CAR throws less. I like Colbert, but Muhammad is GONE, and Smith is coming off injury. Adding F. Jones does help. Delhomme's comp% hasn't been over 60%. I'm perhaps slightly low on his YPA. I may revise Delhomme's numbers up a little.

 

[EBF]

EBF thinks Roethlisberger is undervalued?  Gee, what a surprise.   

I can't believe no one else thinks he'll finish higher than he did last year.

 

[Unlucky]

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:

1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

I have to say that the first is as much an anomoly as the last. Carolina was airing it out like crazy in the 2nd half of last season, and Muhammad was on fire. Muhammad doesn't play for CAR anymore. I'd say the middle two are more typical of what to expect, which puts Delhomme at 3700 yds and 25 total TDs. So, I'm a little low, but I don't see quite the upside that some see.

 

[Unlucky]

Basing Foster's talent on his 174 YD performance against the AWESOME Kansas City Defense is crazy.

Forget the KC game. Are you suggesting that Foster's talent is in dispute?

Yes, I am. Career 4.0 YPC, which is good, but not great. One game ever over 85 yards, and that was the huge KC game. Why should I think this guy is so great?

 

[SammyJankis]

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:

1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

Great post, Sammy. The major glaring downside about Delhomme, though, is that he lost Muhammy. I like him, but I'm not sold on Steve Smith returning perfectly healthy, or Keary Colbert having a good 2nd year. Sell me on it, because I like Delhomme a lot as a player.

The good thing about Smith is that his injury was only a broken ankle. This isn't a lingering injury like returning from an ACL injury would be. Considering that he broke it in the first game of the season, he'll have had a year to recover.Kerry Colbert was impressive as a rookie and most receivers make big strides in their second year.

There are several other high upside WRs in Carolina. Drew Carter has actually looked great so far returning from his ACL injury. Here's a good Drew Carter article: link. Carter obviously has a lenghty injury history, but if he can dodge the injury bug, he could be a valuable target for Delhomme.

In addition, the team still has Ricky Proehl who provides a nice target on 3rd down and in the red zone.

On top of all, the Panthers are mulling brining in a veteran WR for insurance.

I think Delhomme will be just fine.

 

[joffer]

The issue for me is that in this scoring system, Vick was (IIRC) the 14th best QB last year in FP/G. Now I think he can do better in his second year in the system, and I also think he could end up with more touches than he had this last year. In 15 games he had 441 touches (rushes and passing attempts combined), which isn't much for a QB. I believe 17 QBs had more passing attempts (not including rushes) than he had combined passes and rushes.However, after giving him what I feel could be reasonable improvements he could achieve in both number of touches and production with those touches in the passing game, he barely reaches being worth being taken as the 4th best QB. And I'm far from certain that he's going to see those improvements, after all his team was very successful with their running attack and I don't see a huge impetus for change in the ratio of offensive plays.So we're talking about a player who has to achieve the larger portion of his upside compared to his performance last year just to reach the spot he's being drafted. That's a pretty good definition of a bad value to me before you even consider other things like his having more injury risk due to having more runs that subject him to real full-contact hits.

Good PointsJust to be clear, I don't necessarily disagree with those that think he's overvalued at QB4 (i've got him at QB6 myself), I disagree more with the reasons why.Very susceptible to injuries - I buyStill learning the WC system - I buyInconsistent from game to game - I buyI understand the concern about last year's performance, I think I factor in the potential I saw in 2002 more. But when someone is telling me he can't finish as high as QB3 because he doesn't have the weapons, or isn't a good enough passer, or has only done it once in a "career" that includes three seasons (not counting rookie year), I don't buy it.

 

[EBF]

I initially had Delhomme on my overrated list, but then I realized that QB15 is already a pretty big bump down from last year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:

1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

I have to say that the first is as much an anomoly as the last. Carolina was airing it out like crazy in the 2nd half of last season, and Muhammad was on fire. Muhammad doesn't play for CAR anymore. I'd say the middle two are more typical of what to expect, which puts Delhomme at 3700 yds and 25 total TDs. So, I'm a little low, but I don't see quite the upside that some see.

Those stats right there would be worth about 250 fantasy points, good for a QB 14-16 finish. Based on that, an ADP of 15 isn't overvalued.

 

[SammyJankis]

Delhomme has been in Carolina for all of two seasons. Let's take a look at his splits:

1st half 2003: 1394 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

2nd half 2003: 1825 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

1st half 2004: 1852 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 1 rushing TDs

2nd half 2004: 2034 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs

If one of these lines is an anomoly, I think its the first, not the last. Delhomme wasn't the starter from the first game, and took a little time to develop into a starter. In my write-up on Delhomme, this was the point that I made, that Delhomme has blossomed as a starter, particuarilly last year.

I have to say that the first is as much an anomoly as the last. Carolina was airing it out like crazy in the 2nd half of last season, and Muhammad was on fire. Muhammad doesn't play for CAR anymore. I'd say the middle two are more typical of what to expect, which puts Delhomme at 3700 yds and 25 total TDs. So, I'm a little low, but I don't see quite the upside that some see.

If you project the middle two over a season, you get approximately 3700 yards and 23 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD. If you assume that's the low side (and I think it is) then Delhomme is a great value at the #15 pick.Another thing to keep in mind is that the conception about the Panthers offense is "In 2003, the Panthers won with a strong defense and a conservative ball-control offense. In 2004, their defense was awful and after they lost their RBs, so they went to a pass-crazy 'bombs away' approach. In 2005, they will surely get back to the conservative style that suits them best."

I don't think that conception is accurate. When did the Panthers up their passing production? In the last eight games. How did they do in those eight games? They went 6-2. Each of their two losses was by a field goal.

I would say that if the Panthers were winning games by opening up their offense, it might be a bad mis-step to assume that in 2005 they will revert back to "three yards and a cloud of dust".

 

[diesel7982]

I'm suprised no one joined me in overvaluing Ricky Williams at RB47