Just gonna focus on this part. Yes, he's top 15 and maybe top 10 - but that's what his detractors are concerned about. You can't win Superbowls with that. Sure, Dilfer this and Flacco that, but that's not the bar we want to set for this organization. Top 10 out of 32 is 68th percentile - if we were talking about a RB or WR at that in combine testing he'd be considered JAG.
So when you say the "hate" he gets, realize it's just us having higher expectations, especially since he flashed a much higher performance in 2016 and he looked like the special QB a team with SB aspirations needs. He's regressed badly since then, and he's particularly prone to panicking from a clean pocket. He checks down way too early way too often or takes off prematurely and cuts off the available field of outs when he does. I think if he can get back to the patience in the pocket (and better weapons) we'd see a return to that 2016 level of performance. We'd all be doing back flips if that happens but if it doesn't then an upgrade is in order.
Back to the draft - there are a TON of very polished WR's in this draft and the 3rd round is going to have very good options. Guys like Tyler Johnson, Bryan Edwards, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Collin Johnson. I'm not suggesting we set our draft strategy on it, but rather just take BPA at every spot and let the draft come to us. If a special guy like Simmons or Okudah or Brown slides (and they might, now Carolina isw in the QB discussion) and we can move up from 12 to take them e should do it. I don't think Jeudy is there at 12 and Lamb probably isn't either, and if we can't get one of those top guys just take the best guy at a critical position - Kinlaw would be great and If someone wants to give us a haul to get up for a QB we should consider that too.
a) Carr is damned good -- if he's Top 15 (arguably 10) at the position, that not only is a starting NFL QB, it's a good (arguably great) starting NFL QB. I am not sure why anyone could be unhappy with a Top 10 QB in a league.
b) Your percentiles and comparison are false precision. There are really only about 5 elite QBs in the NFL or less at any given time. There are only 32 starters (unlike RBs and WRs, which is an apples to skyscrapers comparison point -- and still if you have a Top 10 RB or WR, are you saying that's not a good thing? Really?). Expecting Carr or any other Raider QB to be a Brady/Brees/Rodgers is an unrealistic expectation. Setting a bar for your QB as someone who will win a SB is motivational, but also unrealistic -- the best QBs don't always get in to the SB any given year, let alone win one, and your own examples show an elite QB is not exactly necessary (though I think Carr is the kind of QB that, with solid play around him, he can manage the offense to be a deep playoff contender and yes, even a SB contender). If you want an elite QB for the Raiders, great -- I would love it too. But it's an unrealistic expectation given how rare that kind of QB is.
c) Totally fine to have high expectations, and can agree that we have not seen all Carr can do yet. But he had a broken leg and a broken back over the last ~4 seasons. He's had a mostly horrendous team around him most of his tenure, and has demonstrably helped get us to the playoffs.
d) I can't see -- statistically, eye-test, or otherwise -- that Carr regressed this last year. Better comp %, increased TD rate, lowest INT in last 3 years and second lowest career # and INT%, highest Y/A and Y/G, highest QB rate, highest net yards per attempt. Agree he can work on pocket presence and decisions under pressure (show me a player -- even an elite one -- who can't improve some facet of their game), but calling him a check-down QB ignores the fundamental aspect that the short/intermediate game is the Gruden's offense. This is not your Al Davis "throw it to the sun and have a drafted track start try and get to it" offense. Our o-line didn't have a fully healthy lineup until, what, mid-year last year? We had a veritable mash unit as a WR corps this year. So yes, that's going to cause some uneven play up front and create pressure on your QB where he lacks downfield options. Sacks were second highest and sack yards were third highest in Carr's career. Some of this is on Carr. Not anywhere near all of it.
e) All this leads to the point: Carr does not deserve the hate, the constant speculation that he's being replaced or should be replaced, or that he should be on the shortest of leashes. I agree fully that if any QB can't continue to improve and raise the team around him, we move on. There is no question that even if Carr is elite, we should still look to draft the next franchise QB simply for team continuance (and I'd argue that we can wait a year to do that). But if you think Carr has to be a SB caliber QB or be replaced, I think your expectations should shift, as it's unrealistic for any team and any QB. let alone Carr.
I don't mean this as an attack -- you've always been a thoughtful poster who brings great perspective, opinion, and it's always appreciated and welcome. And your opinion on Carr is as valid as mine or anyone else's. I just truly believe Carr doesn't deserve the scrutiny, and can't see -- quantitatively or qualitatively -- why we should be thinking of putting Carr on the hook when we have yet to see him or the team around him truly come anywhere close to fruition.
Back to draft -- agree that if Jeudy or Lamb isn't there (and preparing myself for the eventuality that they get selected in the 2-3 spots ahead of ours), you need to go BPA. Not sure that's controversial. But if one is there? I think it would be a mistake to not take them at 12.
Yes, performance at the next level is never guaranteed, and it's is very possible a later round WR is much better in the NFL than the first 2-3 guys selected at the position.
I just don't think we can afford to take that chance given the need we have.
