I see GB being worse this season for many reasons and I think that last season things went just right for them.
QB- Rodgers has impressed me and exceeded my expectations, I will be the first to admit that. However, expecting him to put up those good of #'s(passing and rushing) despite only 7 INT's is hard to duplicate.
-No veteran backup
RB- Ryan Grant.....I see last season as his ceiling...4.4 yard average...11 rushing TD....1253 yards....again hard to dublicate giving his athletic ability.
Brandon Jackson has proven that he is nothing special and James Starks is a 6th round pick. They need to upgrade this position.
WR- Greg Jennings is a solid WR that will have a catch % in the high 50's and grab 65-80 balls , 1000 yards, 6-10 TD's.
Donald Driver is 35...on the decline and didn't catch a TD pass in the last 5 games including playoffs. He should be worse this season.
James Jones almost has better stats from his rookie season vs the last two combined.
Jordy Nelson is only entering his 3rd year and has averaged 27 catches per season.
FBG's claimed they had the best WR group in the NFL prior to last season....I didn't see it. The 3/4 WR have failed to live up to the hype.
TE- Finley is exciting....I drafted him early in one league and had a great playoff game. But he only had 55 regular season catches last year.....let's hold off on the crazy projections until he has performed. I like the depth GB has here with Havner and Lee. This is one position group that should be better than last season.
OL- The starting OL is old Clifton(33), Colledge(28), Wells (29), Spitz(27), Tauscher (32). They showed last season they were below average and I see no reason why they won't be worse this season. As far backups they have a few late round guys and Bryan Bulaga(who I view as a RT) as much as some view him as the savior of the OL....he has reasons why he slipped to the late 1st round.
Defensive Starters with age- Cullen Jenkins(29), Ryan Pickett(30), Nick Barnett (29), Al Harris (35), Charles Woodson(33). It would honestly be hard for me to believe that they would play above or at the same level they did last season as a group. So in general, they should decline somewhat.
DL- Can't count on Jolly this season with all the legal troubles and he didn't resign the tender. One would think that Raji would get better. But with Picket/Jenkins age it would offset. Will Harrell be healthy/contribute? They reached on Mike Neal a bit....but it made sense given the DL's injuries/legal issues/age.
LB- Mathews played good last season, but I feel offenses will shift blocking to him or pay more attention to him so his #'s will be down. Barnett didn't make a ton of plays last year and will he stay healthy/decline with age/etc. Hawk has been a disappointment....will Bishop start? Is Brad Jones going to start at OLB and will he get any pass rush?
CB- Woodson can't maintain the DOPY level he did last season...just by chance....then factor in his age. Al Harris is coming off of major injury and was already declining in play + he is 35. Tramon Williams played well at times....but I don't think he forced himself as the heir apparent to Harris. Pat Lee has been a disappointment, Blackmon is coming off of injury.
S- Nick Collins has played great back there and gives the rest of the D a sense of security back there. However Bigby has disappointed...will he bounce back? Maybe Burnett will fill that void?
K-Mason Crosby missed 9 FG's last year and 7 the year before.
The return game should be a question mark as well with Blackmon coming back from injury.
So to review.....To have the great performances of Rodgers, Grant, and Woodson repeat are unlikely. The age of Driver, Clifton/Tauscher, Jenkins, Pickett, Barnett, Harris, Woodson should affect their play as well.
I don't see GB as a bad team moving forward at all....but a lot of things went well for GB last season too.
Rodgers...hard to duplicate...maybe the 7 INTs...but he only had 13 the year before. His first season was not all that far off his second...so not sure how hard it should be for him to duplicate.
If he throws 7 INT's or less and 4400 yards this season I would be shocked. That is hard to duplicate is my point.
Grant...I think you and others underestimate his athletic ability...you are all too caught up on a thing like supposed pedigree. And are his numbers so hard to duplicate that he basically did so (over a shorter number of games) in 2007?
I have not been a fan of Grant no. But Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison, etc have had second half surges with great YPC....sustained is in question. The year before Grant was 3.9....I look for 4.4 as a ceiling...like I said hard to repeat those numbers.
Driver...what evidence is there that he is on the decline? His numbers went down...IMO for 2 reasons...the emergence of Finley and how Jennings finally got things going. He is still a very very good WR who takes damn good care of himself...and if he does slip, they are pretty deep at WR and now have Finley. And Im not sure why their #3 and #4 WRs are reasons they would be worse. Those 2 are pretty good.
Driver does keep himself in good shape...but that doesn't mean he lasts forever. No matter why, his numbers did decline at the end of last season and it could be because of ability. My point on Jones/Nelson is they haven't proven anything. They haven't have over 50 catches or 700 yards in any one season. In fact they haven't had over 40 catches or 500 yards in either of the past two seasons. I think they are both hyped up and haven't proven that they are "pretty good" at all.
OL...the tackles are older...the rest...28 is now old for an Olineman? Their interior line is young. And you left out Sitton who is the starter at RG. Colledge and Spitz are competing for the LG spot. I see reasons why they won't be worse than last year. Tauscher was coming off of a knee injury and was not even on the team til several games in. They won't be running Barbre out there starting at RT anymore. And the Colledge experiment filling in if/when Clifton gets hurt is over as well. They know have 2nd year Lang to play RT if needed...and a pretty talented rookie to groom for LT. This group got much better as the year went on and were not below average to finish up the season. Nor will they be to start this season.
The point on age is it is very rare for a player to improve by a significant margin at 28 age or older. Normally they are what they are at that point....and will ever start declining. I don't think the Clifton/Tauscher combo will play as well as they did last season. I think they need one of these young guys to step up much more than they have to make this unit progress this season.
D age...again...29 is hardly an old player in this league at those positions. Woodson and Harris yes...Pickett will likely be a rotational player...I don't think his age is a concern.
Again, the point is they won't be better.....and perhaps could decline. Pickett as a rotational player....is that to keep him more fresh to be more productive?
DL...the are preparing for life without Jolly by drafting DL twice in this past draft. Add in having Raji for another year, Jenkins, and Pickett anyway and that is a very good starting 3. If they get even a few games out of Harrell to fill in if Jolly gets suspended...they should be just fine up front. Jenkins age? 29...seriously...he is 29. Your opinion that they reached on Neal...not seeing it as much of a reach there.
ESPN had Neal's ranking as a 59 overall....so it's not just me. I think the pick made sense from a positional standpoint...but a reach.
LB. Barnett is 29 too...stop with the age talk. he was also coming off of a knee injury going into last season. He should be better this year...not worse. Jones had more of a pass rush than Kampman did last year. He should be better...as should Matthews. Hawk is a solid but unspectacular LB. This is a possible weakness at OLB if Jones does not improve.
Again the age talk is referring to them not as apt to improve. Also Barnett has had many injuries....becoming injured again isn't out of the question. You think Mathews will get more sacks this year?
CB...Woodson and Williams are good. Beyond that is a big question mark. Can Harris come back...can Lee or Underwood contribute.
S. I think Burnett will take that job. Bigby has disappointed since coming out strong part way through the 2007 season.
So...to review...they have already repeated great performances...so why is it unlikely that Grant and Rodgers could do it again? Woodson...at least you have a reason with his age. But its likely he is still a pro-bowl caliber player.
The age of Jenkins and Barnett is a laughable concern.
The limited turnovers by Rodgers isn't likely to be repeated, Grant's YPC isn't likely to repeat either. The overall reason I brought up the breakdown and the things regarding the players is b/c a poster stated "If you don't think GB will be better this season, then I don't know what to tell you" or something to that point. They have many reasons why they won't be as good. Age is a concern b/c they likely won't be a better player....the same player perhaps....a slightly worse player probably.