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Aaron Dobson (1 Viewer)

Heep

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)

[*]Has a basketball background (received scholarships to play at Hofstra, Northeastern, others)

[*]The situation for him in NE is at worst above-average, with a great QB and not a lot of talent ahead of him (Lloyd and Welker out of picture)

I look for him to produce immediately and make the biggest jump of any rookie WR from from a value stand point in start-up dynasty ADP from year one to year two. Bloom says he is worth a late 3rd. I think he will end up being worth a 1st.

Oh and don't forget this...

 
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Shutout

Footballguy
Because the honest answer is the majority of people never really watch and appreciable amount of Marhall football games and the first thing they hear is a comparison to Randy Moss which they immediately just discredit (kinda like if someone were to say "this guy is the next Barry Sanders...you just get tuned out). Then the second they do is look at the printed stats and they see what they think are pedestrian numbers and they confirm their first thought.

He's not Randy Moss. And there are reasons why his numbers look as they do. But honestly, people just don't know. I've said it a few places on these forums: this guy is going to be very good.

 

Steed

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

Then there's a double-catch at 3:15! At 3:50 he does a poor job at sheilding a defender from a ball in traffic. Also had a drop at 0:41 but that was a bad throw, but still catchable. I think that write up was done by his agent. This youtube is only 2 games of footage, I'm willing to bet there's much more. I knew something didn't jive with my notes from the season.
 

Heep

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

 
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Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Dobson's ball skills and hands are too inconsistent for me to trust him earlier than that in a rookie draft. Dobson is not a consistent natural hands catcher, and he fights the ball at times. Unlike say Patterson, who has to improve his concentration/focus, I think Dobson is more like Derek Hagan, ie he'll never be the type that plucks the ball out of the air by default. He has great body control and ups, but he doesn't play to his timed speed (unlike Boyce). I think the Pats got him mainly to improve their red zone target array on fades and the like.

 

Xue

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

I asked John Pollard what the games it included and he says only "major conference" games. Not sure which games those are.

 

Heep

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

I asked John Pollard what the games it included and he says only "major conference" games. Not sure which games those are.

He lied because Dobson had 57 catches over the entire season. So how could that only include major conference games? Also the video Steed posted was against UCF which was a conference game and he had 2 easy drops.

 

Xue

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

He lied because Dobson had 57 catches over the entire season. So how could that only include major conference games? Also the video Steed posted was against UCF which was a conference game and he had 2 easy drops.

"Major conference", NOT "conference". As I said, not sure which games were included or not.

 
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PatsFanCT

Footballguy
Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. I can't think of a top NFL WR who had such poor receiving stats in college. Putting the numbers aside, he's a gangly route runner. Doesn't look like an agile or fluid athlete. The way he moves reminds me a bit of Roy Williams, except Williams was more explosive and productive. He shows flashes and I like the jump ball ability, but overall I'm not too impressed with his game. I've been passing on him in my drafts and I'll be surprised if he ends up becoming a good starter.

 

Boston

Footballguy
If you think generally than the answer is pretty simple...the Pats track record with rookie WRs is not that great (it's not great with new WRs in general)...the Pats offense is pretty complex and there have been many rookies and veterans who have come in and been a total bust even though they looked good on paper...if Brady doesn't trust you you are DOA...in many ways (good or bad) it's not about natural talent...it's can the WR pick-up the offense...if Dobson can he has a chance to thrive like a Branch or Givens...if he doesn't he could go the way of a Bethel Johnson, Taylor Price, Chad Jackson or PK Sam...

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Also people tend to defend their predraft rankings. He wasn't considered a top WR before the draft so they are looking for reasons to discredit the pick. People on here come across like they'd watched all this "film" on him (read youtube highlights). But really how much did they do on a guy they projected to go late and be a non-factor?

I think you are seeing a lot of bias in regards to him right now.

He might only have a 10% shot at hitting...but as I stated in the other thread...if he hits, he is, in Tecmo Bowl terms, WR1 Patriots....and we all know that has some serious value.

 

Heep

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

"Major conference", NOT "conference". As I said, not sure which games were included or not.

I would look at Major Conference as BCS Conferences. If that is the case, he played Purdue (Big 10) and WVA (Big 12). I really hope he didn't draw up that stat from 2 games. Especially 2 games where Dobson had a combined 7 catches...

Edit: I just looked again and the stat says "Minimum 40 Pass Targets". I think we can chalk this stat up as irrelevant. UCF is in C-USA so it has to include them and the youtube video discredits it right away in the spots Steed calls out.

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
By my math, 259 receptions, 3,125 receiving yards, and 14 receiving TD left town from last year after the personnel changes in New England. Who knows where that production will go this year (or if there will be that much to go around again this year. Bottom line, there's a lot of fantasy production up for grabs in New England, and I would be shocked if the Pats offense fell to pieces. It's going to be tough to know how things will shake out until they start playing real games, but any of the Pats WR and TE look to be decent draft day options.

 

Steed

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
 

PatsFanCT

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Making one amazing catch doesn't mean you have great hands.

hasn't amounted to much in the NFL.Roy Williams came up with some ridiculous catches in practice for the Cowboys, but struggled in the NFL because he couldn't get open and wasn't consistent.

 

cstu

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.

 

cowboymouth

Footballguy
Dobson wasn't Marshall's best receiver last year. Shuler out played him as the year progressed. Doesn't mean he won't be a good pro, just stating facts.

 
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PatsFanCT

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
He also played with a weaker QB and was consistently double covered. New England is a perfect place for him.

 

Steed

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
He also played with a weaker QB and was consistently double covered. New England is a perfect place for him.
You dont want a guy that can't get open by himself. It screams of average talent. Good luck to you homer.

 

PatsFanCT

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
He also played with a weaker QB and was consistently double covered. New England is a perfect place for him.
You dont want a guy that can't get open by himself. It screams of average talent. Good luck to you homer.
Yeah, he's 6'3, 210, and ran a 4.42 on his pro day. He's got no chance making it in the NFL.

ETA: 4.40. big difference from 4.2. And also to add, great hands.

 
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5-ish Finkle

Footballguy
NE was "a perfect place" for Chad Jackson too.

Pass. Belly-chick just blows at evaluating WRs. Don't want Dobson or Boyce as anything other than "last WR on the team" type fliers.

 

cstu

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
He also played with a weaker QB and was consistently double covered. New England is a perfect place for him.
He drew extra coverage but so did most of the WR's who were draft. I agree that NE is a good place for him, but I don't know if that's enough to give him fantasy value. One thing I will say in his defense is that he'll be a very good red zone target.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
I'm trying to understand why Dobson is flying under the radar so much in rookie drafts. He is being drafted in the mid-2nd round in most drafts. He is also ranked #38 on Bloom's Post Draft 100. A few items to look at...

[*]Great Size - 6'3, 210 pounds

[*]Consistently ran the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4 range.

[*]6th WR drafted (3rd in the 2nd Round)

[*]He did not drop a single catch-able pass in the 2012 NCAA Football Season (Best in the nation)
This is untrue and poor reporting by whoever came up with that stat. Check the 2:13, 2:20 and 3:33 mark

Good call!

:lol: @ 3:33

 

EBF

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
He also played with a weaker QB and was consistently double covered. New England is a perfect place for him.
You dont want a guy that can't get open by himself. It screams of average talent. Good luck to you homer.
Yeah, he's 6'3, 210, and ran a 4.42 on his pro day. He's got no chance making it in the NFL.

ETA: 4.40. big difference from 4.2. And also to add, great hands.
There are lots of tall guys with speed and workout numbers who failed in the NFL. I mentioned a couple already in Jerome Simpson and Roy Williams.

The Pats actually have a track record of drafting underachieving WRs who look like good athletes on paper.

What do Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price all have in common?

They were all drafted by the Patriots in the top 100 picks.

They all had 4.40 speed or better (besides Tate, who was injured at the time of the draft).

Not one of them ever had a 1000+ yard season in college. Here are their season bests:

Chad Jackson - 88 catches, 900 yards

Bethel Johnson - 40 catches, 718 yards

Brandon Tate - 25 catches, 479 yards

Taylor Price - 56 catches, 784 yards

Dobson and Boyce fit the mold of a Patriots draft bust to a T. Both are good athletes on paper. Neither was a dominant producer in college. Dobson was especially bad, failing to net more than 700 yards in any of his four seasons. I hold out more hope for Boyce because I think he's a better pure receiver than any of these guys (he had 998 yards as a sophomore and 891 as a junior). Nevertheless, it doesn't seem like New England has learned from their mistakes. Whoever is making the calls on their WR draft picks loves "potential" and doesn't seem to care that none of these guys can play the position.

 

PatsFanCT

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
He also played with a weaker QB and was consistently double covered. New England is a perfect place for him.
You dont want a guy that can't get open by himself. It screams of average talent. Good luck to you homer.
Yeah, he's 6'3, 210, and ran a 4.42 on his pro day. He's got no chance making it in the NFL.

ETA: 4.40. big difference from 4.2. And also to add, great hands.
There are lots of tall guys with speed and workout numbers who failed in the NFL. I mentioned a couple already in Jerome Simpson and Roy Williams.

The Pats actually have a track record of drafting underachieving WRs who look like good athletes on paper.

What do Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price all have in common?

They were all drafted by the Patriots in the top 100 picks.

They all had 4.40 speed or better (besides Tate, who was injured at the time of the draft).

Not one of them ever had a 1000+ yard season in college. Here are their season bests:

Chad Jackson - 88 catches, 900 yards

Bethel Johnson - 40 catches, 718 yards

Brandon Tate - 25 catches, 479 yards

Taylor Price - 56 catches, 784 yards

Dobson and Boyce fit the mold of a Patriots draft bust to a T. Both are good athletes on paper. Neither was a dominant producer in college. Dobson was especially bad, failing to net more than 700 yards in any of his four seasons. I hold out more hope for Boyce because I think he's a better pure receiver than any of these guys (he had 998 yards as a sophomore and 891 as a junior). Nevertheless, it doesn't seem like New England has learned from their mistakes. Whoever is making the calls on their WR draft picks loves "potential" and doesn't seem to care that none of these guys can play the position.
You do realize that past performance has no bearing whatsoever on the present, right? The Red Sox hadn't won the world series in like 90 years, and then won it a couple times within a five year span.

No trend lasts forever, and the fact is Dobson has no more chance of failing because Chad Jackson did.

You get that right? Because I see a whole lot of people making the same point as you.

I also never said he will be a great WR in the NFL. I believe he can be, but obviously nobody will know until he actually plays in the NFL.

 

cstu

Footballguy
I hold out more hope for Boyce because I think he's a better pure receiver than any of these guys (he had 998 yards as a sophomore and 891 as a junior).
A few things give me hope about Boyce despite his overall low numbers:

- Led the team in receiving yards all 3 seasons

- His freshman year he outplayed Kerley, who I think is pretty decent NFL WR if he had a better QB

- Had 15.7 YPR over his career

 
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EBF

Footballguy
You do realize that past performance has no bearing whatsoever on the present, right? The Red Sox hadn't won the world series in like 90 years, and then won it a couple times within a five year span.

No trend lasts forever, and the fact is Dobson has no more chance of failing because Chad Jackson did.

You get that right? Because I see a whole lot of people making the same point as you.

I also never said he will be a great WR in the NFL. I believe he can be, but obviously nobody will know until he actually plays in the NFL.
The fact that he wasn't productive in college suggests that he might not be a great football player, which would certainly have a big bearing on his pro outlook.

If you aren't a standout at the college level, why are you going to be a standout in the NFL where all of the corners and safeties are bigger and faster?

There are a handful of elite NFL receivers who weren't dominant in college, but usually they have a good excuse. Reggie Wayne played with Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, and Jeremy Shockey. Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb were utilized in a hybrid capacity. AJ Green only played three seasons and was suspended for three games in his final year.

Dobson has no excuse. He played four years in a soft league and never made an impact on the stat sheet. On the surface, he certainly fits the Bethel Johnson/Taylor Price/Chad Jackson mold as a moderately productive receiver overdrafted on the basis of his physical tools and perceived upside.

 

PatsFanCT

Footballguy
You do realize that past performance has no bearing whatsoever on the present, right? The Red Sox hadn't won the world series in like 90 years, and then won it a couple times within a five year span.

No trend lasts forever, and the fact is Dobson has no more chance of failing because Chad Jackson did.

You get that right? Because I see a whole lot of people making the same point as you.

I also never said he will be a great WR in the NFL. I believe he can be, but obviously nobody will know until he actually plays in the NFL.
The fact that he wasn't productive in college suggests that he might not be a great football player, which would certainly have a big bearing on his pro outlook.

If you aren't a standout at the college level, why are you going to be a standout in the NFL where all of the corners and safeties are bigger and faster?

There are a handful of elite NFL receivers who weren't dominant in college, but usually they have a good excuse. Reggie Wayne played with Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, and Jeremy Shockey. Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb were utilized in a hybrid capacity. AJ Green only played three seasons and was suspended for three games in his final year.

Dobson has no excuse. He played four years in a soft league and never made an impact on the stat sheet. On the surface, he certainly fits the Bethel Johnson/Taylor Price/Chad Jackson mold as a moderately productive receiver overdrafted on the basis of his physical tools and perceived upside.
He was also playing with lousy QB's, something Brady is not. But if you want to write him off, go for it. I think he fits the Patriots perfect, but only time will tell.

 

Xue

Footballguy
Dobson wasn't Marshall's best receiver last year. Shuler out played him as the year progressed. Doesn't mean he won't be a good pro, just stating facts.
Stating facts = boxscore scouting.

In a perfect world, all we would have to do is plug in the numbers and get perfect projections/rankings. Football doesn't quite work that way like baseball and basketball do.

 

Xue

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
Looked pretty quick at Senior Bowl.

vs Desmond Trufant (a 1st round pick who put up 3.85 shuttle, 6.67 3-cone):

 

cstu

Footballguy
I fell for Dobson once when his name was

.And why give him the same jersey number (17)??

 
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EBF

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
Looked pretty quick at Senior Bowl.

vs Desmond Trufant (a 1st round pick who put up 3.85 shuttle, 6.67 3-cone):

It's easy to cherry pick good plays while leaving out the bad ones.

http://youtu.be/ofTTjPRPyBI?t=10m9s

Quick isn't a word that I would use to describe Dobson. He's a strider.

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
I fell for Dobson once when his name was

It was unfortunate that Chad Jackson tore his ACL. Are you sure that Josh Boyce isn't Clyde Gates in disguise? (Gates at 5' 11" 198 ran a 4.37 40, basically blew up at the combine, and was drafted in the 4th round.)

 
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EBF

Footballguy
I fell for Dobson once when his name was

I was a Gates fan and he ended up being garbage. What stood out to me watching him in the NFL is how small he played and how easily pushed around he was.

Gates was 5'11.6" 192 at the combine. Boyce was 5'11.1" 206. That might not seem like a huge difference, but the extra half inch of height and 14 pounds of mass changes the equation completely. Gates has a 26.3 BMI, which is lower than just about any FF relevant WR besides AJ Green and DeSean Jackson. It's lower than Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne, and Mike Wallace. In other words, he was a finesse player. Boyce has a 28.6 BMI, which is higher than Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald, an Julio Jones. He doesn't have great height, but his weight is good. Combine that with good upper body strength (22 reps at the combine) and I think he'll be harder to jam/overpower.

There's also the issue of comparing FBS and FCS athletes. Gates played at a low level of competition. TCU isn't a superpower, but they play a much tougher schedule than Abilene Christian. That makes the player's stats and success a little more meaningful.

 

cstu

Footballguy
I fell for Dobson once when his name was

Jackson was looking like a bust his rookie year - 13 catches. I don't want to judge him too harshly since was a rookie, but it's not like he had juggernauts in front of him (Caldwell, Brown and Gabriel). Even if he didn't get hurt I still think the Patriots bring in Moss and Welker.

 

Steel Dillo

Footballguy
What I saw in the OP was a guy make a great catch & then push a ref out of the way so he could show boat.

When did Freddie Mitchell start playing for Marshall?

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
I fell for Dobson once when his name was

I know that you want to prove that BMI is the key to predicting wide receiver / running back success. I don't subscribe. I rather not downgrade a player like AJ Green because he doesn't fit the mold.

Maybe Clyde Gates is not good comparison but comparing Chad Jackson to Dobson is not any better. The best comparison for Dobson is the long strider Sidney Rice.

 

Xue

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
Looked pretty quick at Senior Bowl.

vs Desmond Trufant (a 1st round pick who put up 3.85 shuttle, 6.67 3-cone):

LOL. Are you serious? Watch Trufant's hands as the ball is arriving. What are they doing?

 

cstu

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
Looked pretty quick at Senior Bowl.

vs Desmond Trufant (a 1st round pick who put up 3.85 shuttle, 6.67 3-cone):

If he could get open he wouldn't have Trufant's hands feeling him up like a prom date.

 
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Xue

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
Looked pretty quick at Senior Bowl.

vs Desmond Trufant (a 1st round pick who put up 3.85 shuttle, 6.67 3-cone):

Huh? Trufant immediately puts his arms around Dobson at the top of his route. Not sure how you're suppose to be open if you're being impeded. The QB threw the ball late as well.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
How can you say great hands when he had 3 blatantly bad drops, 2 questionable drops and a double catch in only the 2 games of footage?

Debate all you want about what games are included in his past stats. He has great hands, and has good size and speed. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dobson will do. I think he's going to be a great addition to this team.
Oh, just stop already.

Go read some scouting reports. You look at one two minute compilation of catches he made from who knows what year, and dismiss the one handed sideways catch and all the reports about how good his hands are.

How can you say he doesn't have great hands when everyone with actual talent evaluation skills says he does?

Obviously college skills don't always translate into NFL talent, but from everything I've seen of him, he has a better shot at succeeding with the Patriots than failing.
He played against weaker competition in C-USA and still didn't produce big numbers (or even lead his team most of the time). He had trouble getting separation and will have even more trouble when he tries to go up against #1 CB's.
Looked pretty quick at Senior Bowl.

vs Desmond Trufant (a 1st round pick who put up 3.85 shuttle, 6.67 3-cone):

At least on this play, Dobson seems to lose his balance a bit with a lunging motion on his inside cut. If he cuts that cleanly I think he would have had more space as Trufant did react as if he thought Dobson was going long or outside. The stumble gives Trufant some time to recover but Dobson is too big and shields the defender away from the ball with his positioning and makes the catch. Trufant would be more worried about making the tackle than getting called for the flag on a play he really does not have a chance to make.

Great posts all. This is a interesting story that could play out several different ways. I think what the Patriots liked about Lloyd was his ability to make difficult catches at times. That seems like something they may have liked about Dobson as well. So that is part of why I see Dobson as a guy who may be taking over that role in the offense. The Patriots have already said that Dobson will start with Amendola on the depth chart. The offense performed at a very high level last season and I see much of the same being continued but with new players in those roles. Dobson being a big red zone target should help his FF potential as well. Seems like he will be a good match up option if one of the TE misses time with injury. Or just as another option in close even if both are available.

As for the poor track record of the Patriots with their WR picks. They were wrong passing on Tom Brady for 5 rounds too but he is still playing at a very high level and in my opinion had some say in the WR evaluation process and which players he thought would be a good fit. I think Brady and Manning have a lot of influence on their front offices and that decisions are more collaborative than they are with teams with less seasoned and proven successful QBs. At some point Bill likely watched some film on many of the rookie WR prospects with Brady and they talked about which players they would like to have if the opportunity presents itself. I think Dobson was one of those players and will get the opportunity to start. Perhaps he gets beat out for that position preseason but at this point it is his job to lose. If he does get a lot of snaps he could possibly be useful as a rookie because of the Td potential being attractive in some match up situations. Although the Patriots could also run the ball more in close situations. The other thing with Dobson is he is a good blocker and that will keep him on the field more thus improving his opportunity as well.

I think Boyce is a quality prospect who could possibly earn more targets than Dobson but I would think Dobson would have to fail for Boyce to take the Lloyd role of the offense. I think Boyce is more looked at as depth for the Welker role that Amendola is in. That role has been getting massive targets and Amendola has missed time with injuries before. I think it would take a injury for Boyce to get much action at the slot as a rookie and even then there are other players such as Edelman who are ahead of Boyce on the depth chart. There was a small number of targets left over that went to Branch and that is more what I see Boyce role being in year 1. Long term he may be a good prospect but I think he is competing with Amendola to be relevant for FF moreso than he is competing with Dobson.

 
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