Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
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**AFC Divisional Round - Texans at Chiefs**(-8.5, 42) 4:30 on ABC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Lock of the Divisional Weekend for me
Won't be close
K.C. will limit Mixon and force C.J. into a lot of third and longs
He'll be under pressure all game long
A rested Mahomes and company will be very workmanlike on offense
Lay the points...
Kansas City Chiefs- 34
Houston Texans- 13
Won't be close
K.C. will limit Mixon and force C.J. into a lot of third and longs
He'll be under pressure all game long
A rested Mahomes and company will be very workmanlike on offense
Lay the points...
Kansas City Chiefs- 34
Houston Texans- 13
karl.Racki
Footballguy
KC 27-13.. They will turn up there game against Houston.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Lock of the weekend here. Chiefs/Ravens AFC championship is going to be epic.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
I think the real AFC title game is in Buffalo this weekend..
Houston is a good matchup for KC, but after that I just don't know if they have it on offense this year to keep up with Buf or Baltimore. as weird as that sounds.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The Chiefs don't have to score 30+ to win anymore, so having to "keep up" on offense is a bit misleading. The Chiefs have a top 10 defense (and top 5 scoring defense), and have held the Ravens to 30 points in two games since the start of 2024. Plus, the Chiefs have that Patriot factor where teams get tight and do stupid things when playing them (see: the Ravens in the AFCCG last year), and that cannot be overlooked.
I actually think this is he game I trust the least. I think KC wins, but I think this is a struggle, and I don't really buy the whole, "KC has been coasting, but once the playoffs start, they'll be the elite team they've been in the past." I think KC is a team that wins tight games, but I think Houston's defense could make this game tough for them.
I do think Mahomes legs will be the key to this game. I worry a lot about Anderson and Hunter against maybe the NFL's worst OT combo.
I think Houston struggles to run the ball in this one, so this sounds like it'll all come down to can Nico Collins carry the offense on his back. I think he'll have a big game, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. While likely not to the same extent, I think Stroud will also be heavily pressured and won't handle it as well as Mahomes.
Chiefs-23
Texans-20
I do think Mahomes legs will be the key to this game. I worry a lot about Anderson and Hunter against maybe the NFL's worst OT combo.
I think Houston struggles to run the ball in this one, so this sounds like it'll all come down to can Nico Collins carry the offense on his back. I think he'll have a big game, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. While likely not to the same extent, I think Stroud will also be heavily pressured and won't handle it as well as Mahomes.
Chiefs-23
Texans-20
KC moved Thuney to LT and added Hollywood Brown to the lineup and it shifted the offense up a gear or 3. Chris Jones is amidst a 24 day rest period. All this to say they aren’t screwing up the shot at a 3 peat this week. Maybe they’re out dueled by Lamar playing as Superman but not this week guys.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
low scoring....turnovers the difference....20-17 KC
ChiefD
Footballguy
Everyone is kind of poo-pooing this game as if the Chiefs are just going to roll out the ball and win this game easily.
I don't think so.
The Texans had the Chiefs on the ropes in that game not that long ago in Arrowhead. Tank Dell's injury really cast a pall over the Texans and the Chiefs rolled from there. So I'm not going to dismiss this as "it's the playoffs and the Chiefs are going to flip the switch now."
This is still a very flawed team.
If I'm putting money on this game I'm definitely betting Houston to cover. This game will be WAY closer than everyone thinks.
When the whole world just bypasses a game like this to even consider it a possibility of an upset? That's when I worry.
I don't think so.
The Texans had the Chiefs on the ropes in that game not that long ago in Arrowhead. Tank Dell's injury really cast a pall over the Texans and the Chiefs rolled from there. So I'm not going to dismiss this as "it's the playoffs and the Chiefs are going to flip the switch now."
This is still a very flawed team.
If I'm putting money on this game I'm definitely betting Houston to cover. This game will be WAY closer than everyone thinks.
When the whole world just bypasses a game like this to even consider it a possibility of an upset? That's when I worry.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hollywood Brown’s return and integration into the offense and Xavier Worthy’s continued development are two reasons I think KC wins this one. If Mahomes is healthy—and he should be at this point—look out, Houston (who I think are better than people are giving them credit for).
Looking forward to the slate of games this weekend, especially in the AFC.
eta* as of 5:30 AM PST on January 18, 2024
Chiefs - 28
Texans - 20
But the game won’t seem that close. The Chiefs just aren’t good at putting up points by the bushels this year.
Looking forward to the slate of games this weekend, especially in the AFC.
eta* as of 5:30 AM PST on January 18, 2024
Chiefs - 28
Texans - 20
But the game won’t seem that close. The Chiefs just aren’t good at putting up points by the bushels this year.
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rzrback77
Footballguy
I suspect that the Chiefs will win, but Houston has the defense to cause trouble. Kansas City has allowed many games to go down to the wire, including 11 of their 15 wins being one score victories. Agree with @rockaction comments above that the offense looks stronger later with Worthy's emergence and Brown's return.
I think Houston is able to pressure Mahomes some and possibly gets a turnover or two. If they happen early and the Houston offense can capitalize they will keep it close. But a lot of things have to go well..........
Kelce has a decent game and scores a TD
Chiefs 27, Texans 13.
I think Houston is able to pressure Mahomes some and possibly gets a turnover or two. If they happen early and the Houston offense can capitalize they will keep it close. But a lot of things have to go well..........
Kelce has a decent game and scores a TD
Chiefs 27, Texans 13.
Manster
Footballguy
Yea, everyone had the chargers rolling Houston last weekend. Instead, Houston curb stomped the bolts. The defense looked legit.
I'll take the Chiefs, but agree that it should be a close one, especially if the Houston D can show up big. Both D's are good which could make this an ugly, lower scoring game.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Make a case for how or why the Texans can win this game
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
on brand
A. Reid with two weeks to prepare. Not good for Houston.
Mixon sounds iffy.
Think Houston a bit overvalued after last weekend after the Chargers victory, but that could have been a totally different game if the LAC took advantage early...which they didn't...and then totally imploded.
KC puts together a game plan to corral N. Collins, Mixon ineffective, that O-line leaks for HOU and meanwhile, the KC offense gels with all their WR pieces and TEs (and avoids D. Stingley completely).
KC flips the switch in the playoffs and rolls.
KC 30
HOU 10
Mixon sounds iffy.
Think Houston a bit overvalued after last weekend after the Chargers victory, but that could have been a totally different game if the LAC took advantage early...which they didn't...and then totally imploded.
KC puts together a game plan to corral N. Collins, Mixon ineffective, that O-line leaks for HOU and meanwhile, the KC offense gels with all their WR pieces and TEs (and avoids D. Stingley completely).
KC flips the switch in the playoffs and rolls.
KC 30
HOU 10
calcinorjones
Footballguy
Texans have a solid defense but so does KC. This game is simple. Texan OL is not going to contain the pressure from KC DL which is going to lead to sacks and turnovers. Mixon being productive is critical to Houston having a chance. Stroud will need to roll out and make quick reads and accurate throws. Sounds like last year’s version of CJ. This year has been a different story. Mohomes probably has a couple of TOs giving Houston some chances but in the end Chris Jones, Mohomes, Kelce, the Swifties and Great Googlie Mooglie will roll. Therefore:
KC 28
Hou 19
KC 28
Hou 19
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Tracking the #1 seeds in divisional rounds, in the past 10 years, they have gone 16-4 (2014 - 2013). Things got a bit wanky the preceding 10 years, as top seeds only went 11-9 (2004 - 2013). The #1 seeds in the 10 years prior to that won a lot more frequently, also going 16-4 (1994 - 2003).
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Uh, I do think so.
I'm not sure who the "everyone" is you're talking about. That's a big line, especially in the playoffs. Seems to me the public will take those points all day. I mean, the Chiefs barely win, right?
KC is gonna blow the doors off and we will now see the SB team we've gotten used to. And I hate to say it but Mahomes will light it up. It's what he does. I will take him -- in Arrowhead no less -- all day over Houston.
He doesn't think so either.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
He doesn't think so either.
Wait, what part of "I don't think so" equates to him thinking "the Chiefs are going to roll"?
His past history of reverse jinxes.He doesn't think so either.
Wait, what part of "I don't think so" equates to him thinking "the Chiefs are going to roll"?
ChiefD
Footballguy
The scars of being kicked in the balls my first 50 years of Chiefs fandom still exist. I can assure you I am not trying a reverse jinx thing. Unfortunately I see the the flaws in this team and just hope they can overcome them.His past history of reverse jinxes.He doesn't think so either.
Wait, what part of "I don't think so" equates to him thinking "the Chiefs are going to roll"?
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
KC straight up is the lock of this weekend. I can’t see any advantage HOU has over them.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wide receiver and RB. Defensive ends, maybe.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
@FBG Moderator
@Joe Bryant
-My 1st hot take of the day is the #1 Seed in the AFC going down. CJ Stroud has won 2 Playoff games in a span of about 12 months, sits at 2-1 in only his 2nd season
This will be the start of some great Playoff match ups between these 2 outstanding QBs
The Texans stun everyone and win a tight game vs a team that is something like 15-0 in their last 1 score games
Texans 23...Chiefs 20
Mrs B-Day weekend so MoP won't get to see very much of these games today or tomorrow
Cheers!
@Joe Bryant
-My 1st hot take of the day is the #1 Seed in the AFC going down. CJ Stroud has won 2 Playoff games in a span of about 12 months, sits at 2-1 in only his 2nd season
This will be the start of some great Playoff match ups between these 2 outstanding QBs
The Texans stun everyone and win a tight game vs a team that is something like 15-0 in their last 1 score games
Texans 23...Chiefs 20
Mrs B-Day weekend so MoP won't get to see very much of these games today or tomorrow
Cheers!
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
WHOA!!!
TheAristocrat
Footballguy
Have a couple bets out there but my favorite is:
Pacheco 15+ first quarter rushing
Mahomes 10+ first quarter rushing
+863
Seems doable. Probably dumb.
Pacheco 15+ first quarter rushing
Mahomes 10+ first quarter rushing
+863
Seems doable. Probably dumb.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
The mahomes leg will be hard. GL
Bankerguy
Footballguy
KC takes Collin’s away. They make Houston try to go 10-14 play drives while blitzing and making life hard on Stroud and the Oline.
KC is healthy on offense, well rested and Reid has had 2 weeks to prepare. I don’t see a blowout, but I also think Houston will not really ever challenge KC in the game.
Chiefs win 27-20. Houston scores late to make it closer than the actual game plays out.
KC is healthy on offense, well rested and Reid has had 2 weeks to prepare. I don’t see a blowout, but I also think Houston will not really ever challenge KC in the game.
Chiefs win 27-20. Houston scores late to make it closer than the actual game plays out.
It's a fun story for Texas but they don't seem to matchup well at all. Kansas City is way better and should roll.
I do think they focus on taking Collins away. I just don't see how they hold it that close though.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Like I said, I think the final score will flatter Houston even in defeat. I think KC wins without much butt puckering.
I think it might take a quarter or two for KC to find third gear on offense. They really have had so many injuries and not a ton of time together as a unit.
They have the best QB in the world and should be just fine in the matchup at the end of the day.
Personally wanting to see Pacheco and if he can help the run game get going again for the Chiefs. Or maybe Hunt has to continue to contribute.
If the run game gets untracked early, yes - it could get ugly.
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Wingnut
Footballguy
I'd argue Houston wins DE by a wide margin, also LB (thanks to the dirty, but very talented Al-Shaair), and that CB is probably a tie. Guard probably favors the Texans with Thuney playing Tackle.
I think KC eeks out a win, but I think, "shut down Nico Collins and you'll stop the Texans" is a lot easier said than done. Its not like the Chargers didn't try that.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
way closer then people think....as I said turnovers the difference.....muffed punt.....fumble in own territory....lot of things can happen....I remember when Watson and HOU came into KC and got up 24....in part because of Hill fumbling a punt.....that KC team could overcome that....not sure here....first quarter will tell us a lot...would like to see KC come out in a hurry up or something....get the juices flowing...
Jayded
Footballguy
Chiefs have won so many games close this year. Something tells me that comes into play in their favor today. I’ll say 20-17 Chiefs as they sneak one by again.
As a Texans fan, though, I’m gonna say 100-2 Texans. We’ll let the punter run out of the end zone at the end for a pity safety.
As a Texans fan, though, I’m gonna say 100-2 Texans. We’ll let the punter run out of the end zone at the end for a pity safety.
Major
Footballguy
Against common sense and better judgement my gut is telling me Houston makes a game out of this. The Defense must create turnovers and points like they did against Herbert, Allen and Goff. CJ will have to play out of his mind. It'll come down to a Fairbairn kick. I'm going to throw some positive energy into the world and says The Brow makes it. Texans 23-21 
rockaction
Footballguy
Chenal, Bolton, Tranquill, and whoever they’re rotating in are better than Houston’s LBs. Upon what do I base that? Eye test, admittedly.
DE is definitely Houston, by the way. I was just throwing a “maybe” in there because WR and RB are really in favor of Houston. But DE is there, too. Secondary is a draw.
rockaction
Footballguy
It was hot in the early aughts!
I think Bolton and Tranquill took steps back this season, to the point where I doubt KC makes much effort to re-sign Bolton this offseason, much like they didn't with Gay. I love Chenal, but for whatever reason they treat him as their #3 LB, I think he's clearly their best guy.
ETA: The Chenal thing is really weird to me. Its like when a team has a great speed RB but continues to give 15+ touches to a mediocre plodder. Just actively lowers the ceiling of the team.
rockaction
Footballguy
What happened to that 2020 moment where we all had to sit through the broadcast of “Lift Every Voice” before the obligatory anthem?
Lanell is killing it. That’s a strong set of pipes on her.
Lanell is killing it. That’s a strong set of pipes on her.
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Country Phil Collins is still god awful.
rockaction
Footballguy
Slightly down year, but Bolton should be back. You don’t just kick a guy to the curb. What if he’s playing through injury or has played through injury? Chenal is probably better than Tranquill at this point. I know it was special teams, but he absolutely trucked the LG guard or tackle on Denver and proceeded to block the biggest kick of the year, turns out (If KC has more losses, they might not be #1).
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