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AFCCG Pre-Game thread: Chiefs at Ravens (1 Viewer)

What a game this will be, huh? Defending Super Bowl champs against the best team in football (measured by DVOA and in my opinion). Mahomes and Jackson, two distinct styles of QB'ing. Neither is a traditional three-seven step drop passer. Mahomes moves a lot behind his line and Jackson . . . well, he has the ability to house any scramble you can think of.

The game depends on the health of some unheralded guys in KC, like Mike Edwards and weak-side LB Willie Gay. Edwards left Sunday with a concussion, and Gay left the game Sunday with a neck injury. I don't think he returned. That leaves Drue Tranquill as the other LB with Nick Bolton—and Tranquill isn't quite Willie Gay. This is extra important because Tranquill or Bolton is going to have to contain or spy Jackson. That's an enormous task, and the more athletic Gay would be better suited for it than the lesser Tranquill.

But yeah, those are my first thoughts. Should be a great game.
 
A tall task for the Chiefs this week to be sure. I'm thinking the run ends here. If Baltimore plays their A game and the Chiefs play their A game I think Baltimore wins easily. Just a better overall team.

But, if Baltimore comes out stumbling a bit, the Chiefs are good enough with a lot of playoff experience to get it done. But our defense can't let up chunks of yards like they did last night. The Chiefs were just fortunate that Buffalo had a lot of players injured on D and we could score enough to keep it close til Spags figured it out.

The Chiefs won't have that luxury this week.
 
Pulling for the Ravens in this one. I like the Chiefs, but they have been in the SB three times in the last 4 years winning it twice, and I'd like a different AFC team to represent this year.
 
ChiefD said:
A tall task for the Chiefs this week to be sure. I'm thinking the run ends here. If Baltimore plays their A game and the Chiefs play their A game I think Baltimore wins easily. Just a better overall team.

But, if Baltimore comes out stumbling a bit, the Chiefs are good enough with a lot of playoff experience to get it done. But our defense can't let up chunks of yards like they did last night. The Chiefs were just fortunate that Buffalo had a lot of players injured on D and we could score enough to keep it close til Spags figured it out.

The Chiefs won't have that luxury this week.
Click to expand...
Lamar loves stumbling in the playoffs. Go Chiefs!
 
It feels like the Ravens' year but anything can happen with Mahomes. I feel like KC has been playing a lot of very mediocre defenses (at least by DVOA ranking) and that Baltimore will give them trouble. Ravens have seemingly cured their run woes of late, but Pacheco is very impressive. However, the Ravens' run weakness is to the edges, they are very stout in the middle of the D Line, where Pacheco seems to do his most damage. The KC 3 TE package isn't going to manhandle the Ravens' front 7 like it did Buffalo's depleted LB corps.

Nobody has had a 4-quarter answer for the Baltimore offense since their Bye, they're extremely multiple. They hadn't been doing as many designed runs for Lamar of late, then busted that out with a vengeance in the playoffs, especially in the red zone. And if they get Mark Andrews back to go with the Likely emergence in his absence, that could be a tough combo to handle.

Ravens have been averaging exactly 34 points per game since playing the Lions on Oct. 22 (not counting the Week 18 game vs Pittsburgh), coincidentally the exact total they scored vs Houston in the Divisional Round. I'll say they score 34 again, play a close first half, gradually pull away, then withstand a late rally for a 34-26 win with KC almost scoring the tying TD+2-pointer in the final moments.

To be honest, I'm a little surprised the spread isn't a little bigger, essentially an even game on a neutral field. I think that reflects people's respect for Mahomes and distrust of Lamar in the playoffs
 
jabarony said:
ChiefD said:
A tall task for the Chiefs this week to be sure. I'm thinking the run ends here. If Baltimore plays their A game and the Chiefs play their A game I think Baltimore wins easily. Just a better overall team.

But, if Baltimore comes out stumbling a bit, the Chiefs are good enough with a lot of playoff experience to get it done. But our defense can't let up chunks of yards like they did last night. The Chiefs were just fortunate that Buffalo had a lot of players injured on D and we could score enough to keep it close til Spags figured it out.

The Chiefs won't have that luxury this week.
Click to expand...
Lamar loves stumbling in the playoffs. Go Chiefs!
Click to expand...
On Saturday, Lamar became the first player in NFL HISTORY (regular season or postseason) to have in one game:

2 passing touchdowns
2 rushing touchdowns
100 rushing yards
100 passer rating

That was a playoff game
 
Can't see anyone knocking off the Ravens. I guess KC always has a chance with Mahomes. Both teams are built similar.

The AFC probably have the 3 best teams in the league. All have athletic QBs who can routinely make off-schedule plays & be a threat running the ball. They're very difficult to defend & all 3 of those teams have a strong D.
 
Last edited:
Lots of good commentary above already.

KC has to contain Lamar’s runs better than Josh’s runs and hold them to Tuckers. Baltimore hasn’t faced a defense this good other than every day in practice.

KC pass catchers did great job getting open and not dropping passes so far in playoffs. They haven’t faced a defense this good outside of practice everyday.

Baltimore has been the best team all season and have a slight edge here. KC is tough out but a clean Ravens game will do it. Any huge turnovers by Lamar and the door opens for the upset.
 
I think we saw Ravens adjustments in second half last game. It's Lamar ball time. More of a controlled short passing game with Lamar running 15 times. His body can hold out for 2 games. Lamar ball is good.
 
Ravens are bigger and stronger on both lines, and they get Andrews back. That SF game a few weeks ago is burned onto my brain.

I don't think Pacheco can run like last night. Roquon and Patrick Queen instead of AJ Klein.

I also have an easier time imagining Flowers or OBJ making a play, than Mecole or MVS.

I think KC can still win, because Mahomes and Reid, but they won by outscoring people, and I dunno if they can still do that.
 
Second Half possessions in the Texans-Ravens game

Ravens: 6 plays, 55 yards, TD
Texans: 9 plays, 32 yards, Punt
Ravens: 12 plays, 93 yards, TD
Texans: 3 plays, 5 yards, punt
Ravens: 11 plays, 78 yards, TD
Texans: 4 plays, 4 yards, downs
Ravens: 8 plays, 8 yards, FG
Texans: 6 plays, 33 yards, End of Game

So when the game was in the balance, the Texans ran 16 plays for 41 yards on their first 3 possessions of the second half. While the Ravens ran 29 plays for 226 yards and 3 Touchdowns.
 
Interesting fact. The last four seasons the team that has beaten the Bills in the playoffs have lost the next week, including KC twice.

Will be curious to see if the pattern holds.
 
The Duff Man said:
Interesting fact. The last four seasons the team that has beaten the Bills in the playoffs have lost the next week, including KC twice.

Will be curious to see if the pattern holds.
Click to expand...
I suspect it will.

Baltimore is flat out the better overall team. I think we all know that, and the world knows that. But the Chiefs are sneaky good. And Mahomes is just a killer out there. But this whole year the Ravens look to just be on a whole different planet.

This looks like the year they get it done.
 
ChiefD said:
The Duff Man said:
Interesting fact. The last four seasons the team that has beaten the Bills in the playoffs have lost the next week, including KC twice.

Will be curious to see if the pattern holds.
Click to expand...
I suspect it will.

Baltimore is flat out the better overall team. I think we all know that, and the world knows that. But the Chiefs are sneaky good. And Mahomes is just a killer out there. But this whole year the Ravens look to just be on a whole different planet.

This looks like the year they get it done.
Click to expand...
your reverse psychology game has been on point almost all season.....well done my man....well done...:hifive:
 
Andy Reid said Skyy Moore (knee), Trey Smith (illness), Mike Edwards (concussion protocl), Isiah Pacheco (sprained toe) & Joe Thuney (strained pectoral) will not practice today

My outside view is that Edwards and Thuney are the 2 guys who might actually not be able to play

The Ravens never discuss injuries, Harbaugh lets the injury report do the talking. But word around town is Mark Andrews will play while Marlon Humphrey probably won't. Not sure if anyone else will on the Injury Report after last weekend's game - backup CB Ronald Darby left the game but then came back in. Special teams aces Tylan Wallace and Del’Shawn Phillips didn't play last week because of injury - and sure enough the Ravens gave up a punt return TD in their absence
 
Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 11 times.

Mahomes is 8-3 outright and 9-1-1 ATS.

Mahomes' only loss ATS as an underdog came last season against the Bills at home.

Mahomes is 9-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.


That’s all very impressive but I don’t see Baltimore losing at M&T Bank Stadium. They are a complete team: MVP QB, the best defense, the GoAT kicker, one of the best coaches in the league.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 11 times.

Mahomes is 8-3 outright and 9-1-1 ATS.

Mahomes' only loss ATS as an underdog came last season against the Bills at home.

Mahomes is 9-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.


That’s all very impressive but I don’t see Baltimore losing at M&T Bank Stadium. They are a complete team: MVP QB, the best defense, the GoAT kicker, one of the best coaches in the league.
Click to expand...
As a Ravens fan, I respect those numbers and truly feel this is KC’s until they decide not to take it — They are way more ready and seasoned with the playoff atmosphere than the Ravens, even playing at M&T.
 
JIslander said:
BobbyLayne said:
Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 11 times.

Mahomes is 8-3 outright and 9-1-1 ATS.

Mahomes' only loss ATS as an underdog came last season against the Bills at home.

Mahomes is 9-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.


That’s all very impressive but I don’t see Baltimore losing at M&T Bank Stadium. They are a complete team: MVP QB, the best defense, the GoAT kicker, one of the best coaches in the league.
Click to expand...
As a Ravens fan, I respect those numbers and truly feel this is KC’s until they decide not to take it — They are way more ready and seasoned with the playoff atmosphere than the Ravens, even playing at M&T.
Click to expand...
Oh come on now.

The Chiefs offense is a turd. They got through two teams the last two weeks that had decimated defenses due to injuries. The Chiefs offense is not "fixed" as a lot of the talking schmucks would lead you to believe.

Your team has a fast, stout defense that is going to make things miserable for KC. Our All Pro LG Thuney is probably not going to play this game. Our tackles commit penalties when under distress, which they will face this week in spades.

The Ravens have blown out every top team they have played this year and they are healthy. And that's not even mentioning your offense with the MVP for this year running it with an offensive coordinator who has unlocked him in a new way.

The Chiefs have the heart of a champion but too many flaws and too many injuries here toward the end. If you guys don't win this by 10 I'd be shocked.
 
ChiefD said:
JIslander said:
BobbyLayne said:
Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 11 times.

Mahomes is 8-3 outright and 9-1-1 ATS.

Mahomes' only loss ATS as an underdog came last season against the Bills at home.

Mahomes is 9-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.


That’s all very impressive but I don’t see Baltimore losing at M&T Bank Stadium. They are a complete team: MVP QB, the best defense, the GoAT kicker, one of the best coaches in the league.
Click to expand...
As a Ravens fan, I respect those numbers and truly feel this is KC’s until they decide not to take it — They are way more ready and seasoned with the playoff atmosphere than the Ravens, even playing at M&T.
Click to expand...
Oh come on now.

The Chiefs offense is a turd. They got through two teams the last two weeks that had decimated defenses due to injuries. The Chiefs offense is not "fixed" as a lot of the talking schmucks would lead you to believe.

Your team has a fast, stout defense that is going to make things miserable for KC. Our All Pro LG Thuney is probably not going to play this game. Our tackles commit penalties when under distress, which they will face this week in spades.

The Ravens have blown out every top team they have played this year and they are healthy. And that's not even mentioning your offense with the MVP for this year running it with an offensive coordinator who has unlocked him in a new way.

The Chiefs have the heart of a champion but too many flaws and too many injuries here toward the end. If you guys don't win this by 10 I'd be shocked.
Click to expand...
5 AFCC appearances, pardon me, make that 6 in a row now
3 Super Bowl Appearances and working on their 4th in 6 years
2 Lombardi Trophies and a chance to repeat as B2B Champs
-I agree with Ravens fans that it's Kansas City until they decide not to take it.
-Lamar Jackson has a lot to prove this weekend and will feel the most pressure where as the Chiefs can be relaxed and let the game come to them as they did in Buffalo
Nobody is going to be shocked if the Chiefs win, they are slight underdogs at +3.5, this is not a blowout type game.
 
I won’t count the Chiefs out but they will have to play like their old selves to pull it off and they have really struggled with the offense this year. They can’t turnover the ball and the WR’s will have to actually catch. I think the Ravens Def is too good and the KC offense too dysfunctional this year. Hoping for an entertaining game but could also see things snowball out of control for KC if they can’t move down the field or turn it over early.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
This is not a blowout type game.
Click to expand...
I'm not so sure about that. IMO, if the Chiefs win, it will be in a nail biter won at the end by 3 or 4 points. But if BAL wins, I think they need to win handily (double digits). Put another way, I think that in a close game the pressure might be too much for the Ravens and they would not be the team to win a close game.

Baltimore this season . . .

HOU +16, CLE +25, DET +32, MIA +37, SFO +14
(To go along with SEA +34, CIN +14, JAC +16, LAC +10)

That first grouping includes some really good teams (including both NFC teams still playing). All 4 of the BAL losses were by one possession.
 
Isiah Pacheco, Joe Thuney, Skyy Moore and Derrick Nnadi will not practice today, according to Andy Reid. Pacheco will participate in the Walkthrough on Friday. Reid says Mike Edwards will return and Willie Gay is dealing with neck stiffness.

I never thought Thuney or Nnadi would play in this game. But Pacheco's seeming limitation is a surprise (and a huge story). Sounds like he will give it a go but those sprained toes can be tough, especially for a guy that runs with so much torque.

For the Ravens, Marlon Humphrey practiced for the first time since being injured in the first quarter vs Miami on New Year's Eve but was listed as limited. I'd be a little surprised if he plays. All signs point to Mark Andrews returning, this is his second week of being full-go in practice. I'm wondering if Monken is crafting up some 2-Tight End plays featuring Andrews and Likely that the Ravens have literally never run before and can spring on KC if/when they need to.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Ministry of Pain said:
This is not a blowout type game.
Click to expand...
I'm not so sure about that. IMO, if the Chiefs win, it will be in a nail biter won at the end by 3 or 4 points. But if BAL wins, I think they need to win handily (double digits). Put another way, I think that in a close game the pressure might be too much for the Ravens and they would not be the team to win a close game.

Baltimore this season . . .

HOU +16, CLE +25, DET +32, MIA +37, SFO +14
(To go along with SEA +34, CIN +14, JAC +16, LAC +10)

That first grouping includes some really good teams (including both NFC teams still playing). All 4 of the BAL losses were by one possession.
Click to expand...
Baltimore choked away 3 of those, but.........

They also won 4 one-score games in the regular season. KC was 5-5 regular season in those kind of games.

Both teams - I don't math well - seem to be .500 in close games.

That said, I think KC has more "been there, done that" than Baltimore. We'll see if it matters come Sunday.
 
The_Man said:
I'm wondering if Monken is crafting up some 2-Tight End plays featuring Andrews and Likely that the Ravens have literally never run before and can spring on KC if/when they need to.
Click to expand...
I'm old and not as...... um....... "sensually spry" as I sued to be. But a receiving corps of Andrews, Likely, Bateman, and Flowers might get some things working again :lol:

In fact, I think this is what they go into next season with.
 
Interesting article on cbs sports about a subtle change the Chiefs made a couple weeks ago on offense.
They're use of 3 tight end formations nearly doubled from around 12% to 23%.
A response to the terrible wide receiver room,take them off the field and use more tight ends.
The offense has been better lately.
 
Here's what the numbers show from my simple comparative analysis (which I have done for big games many times in the past).

Here's the methodology. I compared the results for all the games played by both teams, eliminating the results of each individual game and then recalculating how each team did compared to the average score of their opponents. For example, the point total that BAL put up against SF was 16.2 points above what the Niners averaged for points allowed in all their other games (EXCLUDING the Ravens game). And the Ravens allowed 10.2 fewer points in that game compared to what the Niners averaged in their other games. Then I added up all the recalculated ppg differentials which led to the following.

The Ravens averaged +6.5 ppg better than the amount opponents typically allowed, while the BAL defense allowed -6.8 ppg compared to how opponents typically scored.
The Chiefs averaged 0 ppg compared to what their opponents typically allowed, while the KC defense allowed -5.5 ppg compared to how opponents typically scored.

Blending that in with the averages for both teams . . .

Baltimore Offense 28.7 ppg + 6.5 adjusted ppg + KC Defense + 17.1 ppg + -5.5 adjusted ppg divided by 2 = 23.4 points scored
Kansas City Offense 22.3 ppg + 0 adjusted ppg + BAL Defense + 16.1 + -6.8 adjusted ppg divided by 2 = 15.8 points scored

That would mean if everything played out according to how the season went, BAL on a neutral field would win by 7.6 points. Home field advantage this year was worth 2.45 points. That would bring the expected margin of victory for the Ravens to 10 points and the game score to approximately 25 to 15. Given that that's a weird football score, that would probably mean a result like 24-14 or 27-17.

YMMV.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Here's what the numbers show from my simple comparative analysis (which I have done for big games many times in the past).

Here's the methodology. I compared the results for all the games played by both teams, eliminating the results of each individual game and then recalculating how each team did compared to the average score of their opponents. For example, the point total that BAL put up against SF was 16.2 points above what the Niners averaged for points allowed in all their other games (EXCLUDING the Ravens game). And the Ravens allowed 10.2 fewer points in that game compared to what the Niners averaged in their other games. Then I added up all the recalculated ppg differentials which led to the following.

The Ravens averaged +6.5 ppg better than the amount opponents typically allowed, while the BAL defense allowed -6.8 ppg compared to how opponents typically scored.
The Chiefs averaged 0 ppg compared to what their opponents typically allowed, while the KC defense allowed -5.5 ppg compared to how opponents typically scored.

Blending that in with the averages for both teams . . .

Baltimore Offense 28.7 ppg + 6.5 adjusted ppg + KC Defense + 17.1 ppg + -5.5 adjusted ppg divided by 2 = 23.4 points scored
Kansas City Offense 22.3 ppg + 0 adjusted ppg + BAL Defense + 16.1 + -6.8 adjusted ppg divided by 2 = 15.8 points scored

That would mean if everything played out according to how the season went, BAL on a neutral field would win by 7.6 points. Home field advantage this year was worth 2.45 points. That would bring the expected margin of victory for the Ravens to 10 points and the game score to approximately 25 to 15. Given that that's a weird football score, that would probably mean a result like 24-14 or 27-17.

YMMV.
Click to expand...
Should probably omit the week 18 results for each team. Otherwise I like it.
 
Fair chance the Ravens have an off game as they still have the pressure on them (and Lamar). And it wouldn't take a huge window for KC to take advantage.

KC won't beat Baltimore if the Ravens are playing well. I guess I'm just not sure that the Houston win has fixed all their confidence problems. Still, a focused Ravens D buries this year's version of the Chiefs.
 
The Ravens have activated Mark Andrews from IR

Looking forward to see if they have cooked up some special 2 Tight End packages with Likely's emergence during Andrews' injury
 
Willie Gay practiced Thursday but not today. Maybe resting up for chasing Lamar all day Sunday.

Thuney and Nnadi are also not practicing and are key components of the OL and DL respectively.

Combine that with Andrews coming back, and it’s no surprise that the line has moved to -4.
 
Ravens were the best team in The AFC all season.
Ravens blitzed some really good teams this season
Ravens are at home.
LaMar had struggled in the post season,until last week.
Andy Reid has never lost to a former assistant in the post season.
Taylor will surely be there.
Will Jason?
I don't have a strong opinion in this one,but I will wager a ducat on...

The Chiefs- 24
The Ravens- 23
 
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