So what is different this year? I'll put my thoughts on this in my next post to avoid this one getting too long (forum: "too late!").
The tl;dr answer to why the Pats haven't lost much without Gronk this year is the running game being much better than previous years. The long answer...
Like many teams, the Pats had primarily used a single back in their running game. The names changed...Green-Ellis in 2011, Ridley in 2012, Blount from 2013-2015...but the plan hadn't. At the same time, the Pats also had clear designated pass-catching RBs...Woodhead in 2011, Vereen in 2012-2014, White in 2015. The designated runners were decent, but nothing special, and the good defenses the Pats encountered in the playoffs could handle them (or not deal with them at all as the Pats had no RB threat against Denver last year with Blount out). The pass catchers were talented, but were no real threat requiring respect in the running game so defenses knew they could play pass against them.
In 2016, two things changed:
- The Pats used James Develin as a blocking back for Blount a lot.
- Double-threat Dion Lewis got healthy after Gronk went down.
Blount on the field means either a run or a pass in which he pretty much can be ignored as a receiver. Good defenses can handle this. But when the combo of Blount/Develin started running over defenses
even when defenses knew it was coming, that's when things changed. Defenses were forced to respect the run with them in there, which opened up the passing game to the other receivers despite Blount/Develin not being much of receiving threats. This was particularly true on play-action as Edelman could find extra room against the LB or safety shading towards him as they bit on the fake handoff to Blount. This of course cycled back to the running game being more effective as the D needed to respect the play-action.
When Blount needs a breather, or the Pats want that extra receiving threat on the field, they can now use Lewis
and not give up the threat of a run. There a huge thread on Lewis, highlighting how electric he is, so I don't need to sing his praises. But that the D needs to respect his running ability when he lines up in the backfield is something Woodhead, Vereen and White never truly brought to the offense. This helps Brady immeasurably as the D simply cannot overplay the pass.
While Brady has been putting up unbelievable stats since the Pats offense went pass-wacky in 2007, his offense this year is more like the 2003/2004 offenses where he had a lot of help on the ground. A return to a more balanced attack is the reason the Pats are doing fine without Gronk and why they are favorites to move forward.
So now Pats fans are left wondering how awesome this offense would have been with a healthy Gronk. They would have been the runaway favorites, IMO.