Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Scheffler and Roy Williams taken right before my pick. Damn. Great value.Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
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Anarchy League 2 Draft Order & Smack Talk Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Yudkin
- Start date
Scheffler and Roy Williams taken right before my pick. Damn. Great value.nittanylion
Footballguy
No love for Lee Evans, Jiggy?
I took him over Roy without a second thought, and would have taken him over Calvin too if I had the choice. Mark my words, the Bills are a Team on the rise, and with solid QB play out of Edwards and legitimate complementary options at WR, coupled with strong running game and D, and I strongly believe the traditional days of Lee getting a slow start out of the gates are over. Currently ranked around #24, Evans is one of the greatest values, and most likely candidates to drastically outperform that ranking. Very glad to have him at WR3!
Big Ben
Wayne
Houshmandzadeh
Evans
I'm liking this.
I took him over Roy without a second thought, and would have taken him over Calvin too if I had the choice. Mark my words, the Bills are a Team on the rise, and with solid QB play out of Edwards and legitimate complementary options at WR, coupled with strong running game and D, and I strongly believe the traditional days of Lee getting a slow start out of the gates are over. Currently ranked around #24, Evans is one of the greatest values, and most likely candidates to drastically outperform that ranking. Very glad to have him at WR3!
Big Ben
Wayne
Houshmandzadeh
Evans
I'm liking this.
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joffer
Footballguy
that's basically the equivalent of 5.12 in a 12 team league. i figured 2 rounds was enough of a drop. given the format, i'll take a shot.
There it is
Footballguy
Holy crap! I almost didn't get a QB. Lots of excellent drafting around here. #1 pick wait is a looong time.
I couldn't agree more, curious already how close this league will be at the end
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Still here. 15 months is a long time.Bri - I was keeding about the priorities.. thats why I said ool ;-)Just making the point that considering this is total points predrafting is a lot easier imho.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So while I am waiting..
Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.
Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone?? :X
Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.
Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone?? :X
There it is
Footballguy
There it is
Footballguy
15 months is a long time, too long. When I was in, it was 12 month tours and that seemed long.QBs, I wanted 1 to keep pace, point wise. I had to take one because 13 were gone and I only saw a couple that might make the playoffs. Remember there are 31 picks between my picks, then I get 2 together, I couldn't chance waiting 31 more picks to rnd 6. While I was waiting QBs kept getting picked. I saw myself losing too many points. When Jax, Sea, and Ariz went, I changed my queue to 2 QB, so I wouldn't fall too far behind point wise.So while I am waiting.. Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone??
Sinrman
Footballguy
Do you want to be stuck with Alex Smith?So while I am waiting.. Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone??
CalBear
Footballguy
It has been a bit surprising. I will grant that in two of the past four years, having the top QB was a huge win; Brady outscored the #2 QB by 175 points. But after that there wasn't that much differentiation, except that the last three QBs really sucked.Some people think that having TMQB makes the QB more valuable; personally I think it evens out the QB position.So while I am waiting.. Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone??
that seems earlyI'll do something though, sure
I think once they start going you're stuck. Even the guys that plan to wait and wait and wait some more had little choice but to draft one or get stuck hoping JT O'Sullivan rocks this year. Obviously, 6 points per Touchdown give them a higher total points than in leagues where it's 4 points per touchdown. However, when you're hitting that Players-->Top Performers link and noticing the Qbs, they seem to look even better. I've often felt people use that Players--->Top Performers just as much as ADP to decide who they pick next. Last time I looked their were a bunch of TEs up there and they've since gone. CalBear, I disagree on your last point. For me, TMQB makes me think of the WRs moreso than if it were just the QB. For example, I'm way more comfy with "the guy throwing to Fitz and Boldin" than Leinart. (I didn't get Leinart, just an example) It didn't make me think Denver was any better or take away my concern that if Marshall doesn't have it together that offense is doomed.It has been a bit surprising. I will grant that in two of the past four years, having the top QB was a huge win; Brady outscored the #2 QB by 175 points. But after that there wasn't that much differentiation, except that the last three QBs really sucked.Some people think that having TMQB makes the QB more valuable; personally I think it evens out the QB position.So while I am waiting.. Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone??
CalBear
Footballguy
TEs are different; there, there is serious VBD differential as you go down the list. The gap between the #2 TE and the #30 TE was almost 250 points; the difference between the #2 QB and #30 was less than 200. Anywhere in the list the VBD differential is larger for TEs. Having team QBs does reduce the risk for your QB, but it also reduces the risk for everyone else's QB, so they don't wind up as differentiated.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would take Mad Martz passing offense over the Bears..I wanted to wait another turn honestly but I am glad to get SD QB as QB 16. With all the weapons the Chargers have right now and what we saw Rivers being capable of in the playoffs last year I see them being a break out passing offense in 2008.Definitly glad the run didn't continue after TII doubled up at the last turn.Do you want to be stuck with Alex Smith?So while I am waiting.. Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone??
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed. I don't see how this has changed at all over the last decade (and longer) and I am sure you all know it. Passing as a whole is up in recent years relative to the running game but I don't see that causing significantly more seperation in teams total passing offense compared to each other. So again I wonder at the early rush we are seeing all over in 2008. In years past I would have been looking at QB 10 or something in round 5/6 not QB 16. I think everyone is over-reacting a bit to record setting passing numbers last year and the RB injuries depressing their value comparativly. While the passing game is here to stay and this is certainly something that has been trending upward.. its been trending upward across the board. So that makes a QB more valuable than a RB or WR?? From a VBD perspective I don't think so, but I do see the security in taking a team QB compared to a RB that you not sure what his time share will be I guess..
FF folks(myself included) draft RBs out of position to start every draft. If you take seemingly any FF draft in any year you'll see 15 or so RBs go in the first 24 picks meanwhile everyone knows(or should know) they will not be the top 15 scorers by year's end.Drafts are "off" pretty early.This is but one problem with many drafting theories. If you're working up a theory, you'd have to assume it would be something like best player, 2nd best, 3rd best, 4th, 5th, 6th etc being drafted. Very few drafts ever have that happen up to suppose the 20th ranked player.
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Fiddles
Footballguy
looking at the winning teams in years past each team drafted differentlyhaving said that I won anarchy 2 last year and my team qbs were kc and balt cleveland qbs went last or 2nd to last.It has been a bit surprising. I will grant that in two of the past four years, having the top QB was a huge win; Brady outscored the #2 QB by 175 points. But after that there wasn't that much differentiation, except that the last three QBs really sucked.Some people think that having TMQB makes the QB more valuable; personally I think it evens out the QB position.So while I am waiting.. Whats up with the mad rush to draft QBs? I have been noticing this across the board in ADP and in redraft leagues this year that FF owners are taking QBs earlier and more often than I can remember. Seems like I am in a time warp back to the 80's when FF was young and people didn't know any better.Seriously.. its not even the end of round 5 and 15 of the 32 QBs are allready gone??
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not really what I am talking about Bri.Now maybe people are drafting more based on total points as you suggested earlier. However I think most if not all of us here understand VBD principles also.Here is where the QBs have been drafted so far:1.02 2. Anarchy99 Patriots, New England NEP TMQB Wed Aug 6 8:18:31 p.m. ET 2008 1.05 5. joffer Colts, Indianapolis IND TMQB Wed Aug 6 8:18:31 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 1.07 7. Pimpin' Ain't Easy Cowboys, Dallas DAL TMQB Thu Aug 7 11:25:08 a.m. ET 2008 2.08 24. Jiggyonthehut Saints, New Orleans NOS TMQB Thu Aug 7 10:42:55 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 2.14 30. Bri Bengals, Cincinnati CIN TMQB Fri Aug 8 11:25:15 a.m. ET 2008 3.12 44. nittanylion Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT TMQB Fri Aug 8 11:40:27 p.m. ET 2008 3.13 45. Captain Hook Browns, Cleveland CLE TMQB Sat Aug 9 10:47:54 a.m. ET 2008 sorry for the holdup guys, I am traveling without regular access until Tuesday 3.14 46. Sinrman Eagles, Philadelphia PHI TMQB Sat Aug 9 10:47:54 a.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.01 49. radballs Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC TMQB Sat Aug 9 12:19:24 p.m. ET 2008 4.03 51. Sinrman Jets, New York NYJ TMQB Sat Aug 9 12:19:24 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.09 57. Just Win Baby Seahawks, Seattle SEA TMQB Sat Aug 9 3:08:18 p.m. ET 2008 4.10 58. Pimpin' Ain't Easy Rams, St. Louis STL TMQB Sat Aug 9 3:08:18 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.11 59. Old Milwaukee Cardinals, Arizona ARI TMQB Sat Aug 9 3:08:18 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.16 64. There It Is Giants, New York NYG TMQB Sat Aug 9 5:54:46 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 5.01 65. There It Is Texans, Houston HOU TMQB Sat Aug 9 5:57:47 p.m. ET 2008 6.02 82. Biabreakable Chargers, San Diego SDC TMQB Sun Aug 10 11:11:06 a.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 6.05 85. nittanylion Panthers, Carolina CAR TMQB 1st of all 3 QBs in the 1st round for the past decade and longer has been pretty much unheard of in FF circles. Yet that is the trend this year. I am not saying that projections and VBD #s don't justify them being taken this highly either but in years past you didn't have to draft them this high to get them. Manning has not really changed from past seasons but the only time his ADP was this high was following the 2004 season when he threw 49 TD. Culpepper and McNabb at their peaks were never 1st round picks.It doesen't stop there though. 2 more were drafted in round 2. IIRC in this league in 2006 I was able to get Carson Palmer in round 5.3rd round QBs in years past were fairly common. That is where people were drafting the cream QBs that this season are allready long gone. That trend seems stable 3 QB drafted in round 3.What we have seen much more commonly in years past however is that after the top handfull of QBs (the top 4 or 5) would be taken in rounds 2 and 3 then teams would wait until round 5/6 to draft their 1st QB. Some owners who would wait and wait some more to draft their 1st QB might not take one until round 7/8 sometimes even latter. This year not only are 8 gone by round 3 but then 6 more were drafted in round 4. This is a dramatic change from the status quo. Are people drafting them higher because they are chasing the high picks on QBs in the 1st 3 rounds or what? This really is an unushual trend that I have been seeing this year.Now from a VBD perspective here is how the QBs scored last year:1. 563.44 2. 388.043. 379.464. 375.48 5. 366.08 6. 364.267. 359.628. 324.909. 321.0210.316.34 11.315.3212.299.9013.283.2214.282.2015.277.3016.276.9417.273.4618.271.06 19.242.7620.224.92 21.219.66 22.218.3623.214.5624.212.1025.208.56 26.208.32 27.205.82 28.205.0029.204.7030.196.3631.180.20 32.167.26So yes Brady crushed every QB by A LOT. Understood and if he repeats that success (unlikely) that certainly justifies a 1st round pick.There were 6 other QB who did very well. From 2-7 seperation in points was 28.42pts 1.77pts/game (for 16 games though many of these got extra point for playoffs). Its not really a lot of seperation so how is that helping you pull away from the pack drafting these players in rounds 1-3 (8 were gone by round 3) when I think you should be seeing more seperation from elite players at other positions like WR and RB..The next grouping from QB 8-18 (11 players) has a seperation of 53.84pts and its a very steady curve with greatest seperation along this curve still being less than 1pt/game (16 game season). So from a VBD perspective how are owners getting "value" by drafting these players in round 4? I would think that the projected VBD number should be telling owners a different story than this and they would wait until round 5/6 to get one from this bunch.. but they didn't..Just find this very unushual and interesting because I have not seen a trend like this for many many years. And I wonder what peoples reasoning for this might be if it is not herd mentality.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I doubt NE TMQB will be as dominant as last year, but even at a decent markdown is still worth a first round pick. If you knock off 20% from last year's scoring total, that still would have been 60+ points more than the #2 TMQB. And as I said in one of these threads, NE is about as much as a lock for playing 18 games as they come.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have no argument with this and every year there is one QB that ends up being worth a 1st round pick. It is just that in years past you did not have to use a 1st round pick to get that QB..Not really what this conversation is about however. Perhaps people are drafting QB higher trying to chase Brady.. but I don't see that helping them either..BTW - We are waiting on you Anarchy.. your on the clock.. would hate to have to see ya make a replacement pick for yourself lol.
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Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Fascinating stuff. My exact draftboard was taken in succession from 6.07 to 6.09. Seems like we're on very similar pages and the margins in this league will be small and injury dictated. I really wanted Roddy White, and think he will outperform, but I had to settle for Kevin Curtis.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Yeah. I'm just hanging around to see who I get stuck with in a replacement pick only to then make a quick switch.
Tau837
Footballguy
I've drafted 2 QBs so far. Last year, in Anarchy 3, I took Tennessee in the 5th as the 10th team QB off the board and Baltimore in the 9th as the 20th team QB off the board, and they finished 28th and 27th, respectively. So I wanted better performance from that spot this year. I felt Seattle as the 11th team QB taken in the 4th and Denver as the 18th team QB taken in the 6th each offered a bit of value, and, more importantly, should have low chances of busting.
Last year, Seattle was the 6th best team QB, and the 8th best scorer overall. Of course, Hasselbeck had a career year last year, but I think there is a good chance he will follow up with a similar performance. And Seattle is a solid bet to make the playoffs, which will hopefully give 1-2 more games of ~20 ppg performance.
Last year, Denver was only the 17th best team QB. Hopefully improvement from Cutler, Scheffler, and the collective WR group means they could finish in the top 12. They have a shot at the playoffs, which would help a lot, but I wouldn't say they are likely to make it. Perhaps most important is that Denver should finish in the middle of the pack in QB performance at worst, and it is possible they could move into the top 10-12.
All that said, I agree that it is surprising they have gone as early as they have. Like I said, I got the 20th QB chosen in the 9th round last year. The fact that we have had 18 taken through 6 rounds definitely shows a different trend. There are still some values to be had, but also a handful of lousy choices. I'm glad I won't get stuck with any of the latter.
I'm actually more surprised at the fact that more TEs haven't gone. There are still at least 17 more that have to be drafted and started, and there is potentially a pretty large spread there. And TE can be a very high scoring position in this format.
Last year, Seattle was the 6th best team QB, and the 8th best scorer overall. Of course, Hasselbeck had a career year last year, but I think there is a good chance he will follow up with a similar performance. And Seattle is a solid bet to make the playoffs, which will hopefully give 1-2 more games of ~20 ppg performance.
Last year, Denver was only the 17th best team QB. Hopefully improvement from Cutler, Scheffler, and the collective WR group means they could finish in the top 12. They have a shot at the playoffs, which would help a lot, but I wouldn't say they are likely to make it. Perhaps most important is that Denver should finish in the middle of the pack in QB performance at worst, and it is possible they could move into the top 10-12.
All that said, I agree that it is surprising they have gone as early as they have. Like I said, I got the 20th QB chosen in the 9th round last year. The fact that we have had 18 taken through 6 rounds definitely shows a different trend. There are still some values to be had, but also a handful of lousy choices. I'm glad I won't get stuck with any of the latter.
I'm actually more surprised at the fact that more TEs haven't gone. There are still at least 17 more that have to be drafted and started, and there is potentially a pretty large spread there. And TE can be a very high scoring position in this format.
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joffer
Footballguy
I wanted to pull the trigger so much on DeAngelo, but I just couldn't justify him over Berrian at that point.
QB - Indy
RB - Larry Johnson, MJD
WR - Brandon Marshall, Bobby Engram, Bernard Berrian
TE - LJ Smith
pretty happy so far
I took MJD at 3.05, he went 2.05, 2.06, and 2.08 in the other three drafts, so good value there.
QB - Indy
RB - Larry Johnson, MJD
WR - Brandon Marshall, Bobby Engram, Bernard Berrian
TE - LJ Smith
pretty happy so far
I took MJD at 3.05, he went 2.05, 2.06, and 2.08 in the other three drafts, so good value there.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
TMQB
New England
RB
Maroney, Graham
WR
Welker, Burress, Chambers
TE
Watson
At this rate I may have to become a Pats season ticket holder. I didn't plan on taking that many Pats (in fact, I have NONE of these guys in any other league). But the extra games (potentially) bump them all up in my book.
With only one TMQB taken, I may get more scoring already than CalBear, Fiddles, and Duckboy's teams will get from their two TMQBs. (Obviously I will take another TMQB somewhere).
New England
RB
Maroney, Graham
WR
Welker, Burress, Chambers
TE
Watson
At this rate I may have to become a Pats season ticket holder. I didn't plan on taking that many Pats (in fact, I have NONE of these guys in any other league). But the extra games (potentially) bump them all up in my book.
With only one TMQB taken, I may get more scoring already than CalBear, Fiddles, and Duckboy's teams will get from their two TMQBs. (Obviously I will take another TMQB somewhere).
CalBear
Footballguy
I don't think people are discounting Brady's stats nearly enough. The year after Manning went for 4557/49, he went for 3747/28, without any significant change to the team (the team was actually better). If you're projecting Brady for more than 32 TDs, you're over-projecting him.
(I feel bad snipping that real good post)I think there's some herd mentality so much so if I was in ThereItIs or Radballs shoes, I'd have drafted two QBs back to back just to have some fun. So long as the herd is doing it, the RB and WR values remain similar.Biabreakable said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ok..
QB
San Diego drafted as QB 16 I like how Rivers played late last season. Chambers/Jackson/Davis and Gates are forming into strong weapons and LT is a premire recieving RB. I think he will easily out perform where I drafted him. Believe he was QB 13 last year and his targets all have more seasoning in the offense now. A sure playoff team imo.
Detroit Lions. While Martz is gone and the Lions want to focus on running the ball more they still have very good weapons in the passing game. Until Detroit fixes its defense they will be playing catch up much of the time and still have to air it out a lot. No real playoff hopes but I think this is the last real good Passing team left.
RB
Brandon Jacobs. I said I would try to draft healthy players this year but that thinking always gets thrown out the window once I start drafting. I will always take the upside players in total points over the safe play. Jacobs is a monster while he is healthy. He is playing for a new pay day so thats extra motivation to not let the dings keep him out of games. Definite playoff team imo.
Selvin Young. Another risky player as Denver hasn't had any consistency here since Portis. I know all the downside but reading skeletors tea leaves has me believing in this guy. 5 YPC when he was healthy last year and he put on over 10 lbs in the offseason doing what he can to become the feature RB for the Donkeys.
WR
Larry Fitzgerald. This guy is as solid as they come. I think he is a lock for 100 receptions as long as he is healthy. Improved defense in Arizona gives them a chance to be a playoff team.
Calvin Williams. I see him taking a huge leap in year 2. 80+ catch potential as he establishes himself as one of the elite WR in the game. All reports on him offseason have been positive and he is the best thing the Lions have going for them. Playoffs unlikely but I think he was still worth it where I drafted him.
TE
Antonio Gates. People are worried about the toe. However I see Gates being a big part of the Chargers offense once again. I won't let niggling injuries scare me off a player this good. Could easily finish in the top 6 for total points as long as he is healthy.
Randy McMichael. OC has worked with Gonzalez and Cooley in a TE friendly scheme. With Bruce gone and the Oline healthy I expect McMichaels targets to increase a lot as he becomes the 2nd most targeted reciever for the Rams after Holt. If Jackson continues to hold out this will force the Rams to throw a lot more. McMichael has been a top 5 TE before.. can he return to that level??
For picking as late as I have I think things are going pretty well so far... In the 2 previous years that I have played in this format it was my early picks that got hurt and burned me.. my latter picks have been pretty successful.. we'll see if I can pull some late gems again and hopefully my early picks have a bit better luck this year.
QB
San Diego drafted as QB 16 I like how Rivers played late last season. Chambers/Jackson/Davis and Gates are forming into strong weapons and LT is a premire recieving RB. I think he will easily out perform where I drafted him. Believe he was QB 13 last year and his targets all have more seasoning in the offense now. A sure playoff team imo.
Detroit Lions. While Martz is gone and the Lions want to focus on running the ball more they still have very good weapons in the passing game. Until Detroit fixes its defense they will be playing catch up much of the time and still have to air it out a lot. No real playoff hopes but I think this is the last real good Passing team left.
RB
Brandon Jacobs. I said I would try to draft healthy players this year but that thinking always gets thrown out the window once I start drafting. I will always take the upside players in total points over the safe play. Jacobs is a monster while he is healthy. He is playing for a new pay day so thats extra motivation to not let the dings keep him out of games. Definite playoff team imo.
Selvin Young. Another risky player as Denver hasn't had any consistency here since Portis. I know all the downside but reading skeletors tea leaves has me believing in this guy. 5 YPC when he was healthy last year and he put on over 10 lbs in the offseason doing what he can to become the feature RB for the Donkeys.
WR
Larry Fitzgerald. This guy is as solid as they come. I think he is a lock for 100 receptions as long as he is healthy. Improved defense in Arizona gives them a chance to be a playoff team.
Calvin Williams. I see him taking a huge leap in year 2. 80+ catch potential as he establishes himself as one of the elite WR in the game. All reports on him offseason have been positive and he is the best thing the Lions have going for them. Playoffs unlikely but I think he was still worth it where I drafted him.
TE
Antonio Gates. People are worried about the toe. However I see Gates being a big part of the Chargers offense once again. I won't let niggling injuries scare me off a player this good. Could easily finish in the top 6 for total points as long as he is healthy.
Randy McMichael. OC has worked with Gonzalez and Cooley in a TE friendly scheme. With Bruce gone and the Oline healthy I expect McMichaels targets to increase a lot as he becomes the 2nd most targeted reciever for the Rams after Holt. If Jackson continues to hold out this will force the Rams to throw a lot more. McMichael has been a top 5 TE before.. can he return to that level??
For picking as late as I have I think things are going pretty well so far... In the 2 previous years that I have played in this format it was my early picks that got hurt and burned me.. my latter picks have been pretty successful.. we'll see if I can pull some late gems again and hopefully my early picks have a bit better luck this year.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Total points. No oops at all.And actually in head to head leagues recently I have stopped worrying about bye issues. If I have a lot of players on bye all the same week it just makes me that much stronger on all the other weeks. Went 12-1 in a couple leagues because of this.I would only worry about byes in survivor.. drafting a lesser player because of a bye is bad juju I think.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Interestingly, you took MJD as the 12th RB taken, whereas in the other leagues, he was 10th, 11th, and 11th. So relative to the RB order, it was very close. Our league appears to be the only one that has not carried the standard RB bias over to this unique format.Of course, as the only team ignoring RBs so far, I'm sure most think I have carried this to an extreme. But I think even our league has overemphasized RBs so far. I came very close to winning Anarchy 3 last year, taking these RBs:1.7 Larry Johnson8.10 Leon Washington16.10 Noah Herron18.10 Kenny WatsonObviously, I got a bit lucky with Watson, but unlucky with the others. Of course, I did get lucky with some other picks. But the point is that this format makes it possible to win with a lot of strategies, including placing minimal value on RBs.
it means I got a zero for my QB in week 10, that's about itwhat's that 1/140th? 160th? of the total scoring?
that's a good point, I didn't think of it that wayyou're right
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
David Yudkin
Footballguy
While I think it's pretty much impossible that the Pats will have better passing numbers this year, it's not like it's never happened before. The Rams put up 4580/42 in 99 and 5492/37 in 00. Manning is also a weird example, as he had a career year followed by the worst season of his career except for his rookie campaign.I don;t think the strength of NE is running the ball. THeir rushing stats over the years in the BB era were not very good. They had one solid year with Dillon, but the rest of the time they were below average and covered up that fact in volume. They had a lot of rushing attempts to rank pretty much middle of the road or worse statistically.SImilarly, they never had a set of receiving options like they do now, so I don't see them going back to something that was not very effective. I do think they will run a little bit more, as I don't see the blatant attempt to break records again like they did last year. I also think that Brady will not have as much time to disect teams with surgical precision like he did last year as the OL likely will not be as cohesive again. So the argument of "Brady never came close to those numbers in the past" really doesn't apply as much.In this format, though, I really don't see how NE doesn't get extra games come playoff time, and those games last year were an extra 60 points. Last season, the Pats TMQB got credit in this league for a whopping 5596 passing yards, 56 TD passes, 96 rushing yards, and 3 rushing TD.I think the best comparison might be the Vikings teams that Moss was on. Those teams put up:4492/414318/324019/333854/23 (Culpepper hurt)3951/194169/324754/39I don't remember what happened that 19 TD season in the middle for the Vikes, but the first three and the last two years seem to be a reasonable range for a team with Moss on it.If I had to guess, I would slot NE for 4400/35 in the regular season plus 2-3 games in the post season. That should still be a pretty big number production wise in this league. Basically, what the Cowboys TMQB put up in total last year PLUS the playoff games. So maybe a total of 5200 passing yards and 41 TD.
CalBear
Footballguy
Manning didn't have a bad year in 2005; he completed 67.3% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt, both the second best of his career. He just didn't have as many attempts (lowest of his career) because his team was ahead a lot and he basically sat out the last two games as they'd already sewn up home-field. Projecting Brady for TDs in the high 30s is expecting that something which has happened twice in history, a remarkable feat that is a combination of talent (which is indisputable) and opportunity (which is highly variable), will repeat itself this year for this team. I think it's foolhardy. I think you're better off projecting Brady with a 20% bump from his second-best career season, than giving him a 20% drop from 2007.
I've been trying to wrap my head around BMI all day.....man my head's been elsewhere all day.
Jesus Christ Kige, I thought you were kidding. Randy Moss has always been difficult to project. Part of Brady having a super year involves Moss dominating which he doesn't necessarily do every year. Gaffney and/or Jackson have little to go on in terms of how they've done as a starter.Welker had a career year in 07.Maroney's always been part of a RBBC but not this year until Lamont Jordan came to town. Can you bank on Lamont? Is Sammie ever going to get healthy? What's all that leave for Faulk then?GL projecting the Pats offensive stats
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If you notice, I projected the Pats for 35 regular season passing TD. Plus even if he sits, as a TMQB the Pats still would accrue points even if Brady sits.THe 05 Colts ended up with roughly 4200/31 . . . far from a disaster. And in NE's case this year, the majority of people have the Pats defense taking a decent step backwards with their secondary and personnel losses. The Colts defense played way better than they did before. If the Pats D does what the Colts D did, then NE has a legit shot at going undefeated again. You keep harping on Manning and the COlts. I think the sample size of one team is a little small. If you look t some of the other top passing teams over the years (49ers, VIkings, Rams, Chargers, Packers etc,), their totals did not necessarily fall to pieces after a strong season.BB does not believe in sitting players for fear of disrupting team chemistry, so I am not concerned that suddenly Brady will sit the past 3 weeks. Besides, it's unlikely the Pats will have clinched the best record in the AFC and being in a position to take time off.
