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Ellington has had 7 carries in each of the last two games and averaged 7.7 ypc against Carolina's 4th ranked run D and the 9ers (20th). So I don't see him taking a step back in attempts, especially with Mendenhall plodding along at 3.3 per and Sherman shadowing Fitz. The Cards will need to turn their attention toward unusual suspects (Roberts, Housler, Ellington) to move the chains.
You like him better than fjax this week against a Miami defense ranking near bottom vs rbs?
why do both options stink??? Ellington could be awesome and produce a ton if the coach gives him 15 touches/game from here on out... I don't know what the hell the problem is, it isn't rocket science.... Im thinking he gets more and more carries as the year wears on and will be a focal point in the passing attack... I like Ellington over CJ1k.
You don't know what the problem is? It's that he still hasn't had 15 touches in ANY game, let alone average that over multiple games. So actually it is rocket science when you don't know how heavily he'll be involved. And don't get me wrong, I'm on your side - he should be getting more carries. But let's not pretend he's not a risky fantasy start at this juncture.
Spiller is still something less than 100% and Jackson is so heavily used around the goal line that he's the safer play. That being said, I view Powell as a safer play as well (vs. Pats 25th ranked run D minus Mayo and Wilfork) and I'm going with Ellington tonight. If you match up well against your opponent I'd stick with Jackson.
Obviously leaning FJax all the way... just want to believe Arians will bump his usage a little and don't want to miss that coming big breakout game.
Oh, I'm not arguing he hasn't been better. Heck has ANYBODY been better than Ellington on a per touch basis? The problem isn't what Ellington is doing with the touches...it's the number of touches.
I hear that. We all know it's coming - just a matter of when Arians pulls his head out of his ***.
Pretty sure you don't know more about anything football related than Bruce Arians, guy. There's generally a reason why RBs < 200 lbs are on a pitch count. And 43 career touches is an absolutely tiny sample size that means essentially nothing.
Then why does he continue to get more touches and outproduce Mendenhall 2:1 across the board? And now you've vaulted into the lead for Dumbest Post of the Year...guy. Watch a Cards game, come back here and tell me why Ellington isn't getting more reps. I already know your response...cuz Arians said so.
Hey guy, relax. He's clearly got talent. He's listed at 199 pounds. Same as Jamal Charles and two inches shorter - I don't think projecting a similar career arc as far as touches is crazy. I'm not saying Arians is dumb, just saying I can see Arians continue to trust him with a few more touches as the season goes. To say 43 touches means nothing is pretty silly. Of course it means something. Not everything, but something. I, for one, am not suggesting he's the next coming of anything, but he certainly could be a pretty good back. i don't get the curmudgeony post.
Maybe dynasty teams that picked him up cheaply this year. Hard to see him putting up big stat lines this year sans injury to Mendy.
Sarcasm, last refuge of the imaginatively bankrupt...
He's right and frankly I'm ashamed of all of us. Sitting around talking about what a player has done over a small sample size and trying to figure out whether he can keep this up. Stupid Kool-Aid fest. You'll know what Ellington's value is when the NFL is damn good and ready to let you know!
Yeah, 6th-round running backs never lead teams to Super Bowls or rush for 2,000 yards (Terrell Davis). Undrafted running backs never become fantasy superstars either (Priest Holmes ran for 1,000 yards and had a 200-yard game in his second year in NFL) (Arian Foster). NFL executives and coaches are never wrong about anything. I'll make sure everyone on my fantasy squad is a first-round pick from now on.
Perhaps, but not this time. Would love to hear some actual insight about his awful situation. Obviously the Ariz line stinks, but thought Arians could polish the turd into a middling offense by later in the year. Not like there's zero talent on the offense.
Look at what a 6th rounder like ALMO was able to carve out and those who pounced on him only had preseason data to work with. Of course the situation was different but I can tell by the way you emphasized "6th round" that you haven't watched him play/analyzed his talent. If you had, you never would have made such a silly statement. Ellington wouldn't be the first late rounder to make GMs look foolish and assuming he pans out, he certainly won't be the last.
Well there you go. Three guys in twenty years have done it, out of the hundreds of 6th round or undrafted RBs to cycle through the league in that timespan. Some of whom looked pretty good on limited touches early in their careers. Let me guess, you invest a bunch of money buying lottery tickets every week too.
No, actually Ellington and Stedman Bailey were the two guys I drafted in the 3rd round this year in pretty much every dynasty league I'm in. Ellington has absolutely exceeded my expectations thus far, but he is what he is. I am disappointed that none of you guys are in any of the leagues where I own him, though. I'd be all about selling him based on the expectations in here.
It's really not that absurd that he MIGHT be somewhere close to as productive as Jamaal Charles in a couple years. Players improve. Dismissing that as impossible is absurd. Is anyone saying that it's a sure thing. I agree calling Arians out is dumb. Arians has also flat-out said he's a three-down back. He's an intriguing player worthy of discussion. His efficiency metrics will regress? No kidding, he won't average 7 yards a carry his whole career. Thanks for the "insight."
It's about playing the percentages, and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out. I have watched Ellington play -- I just don't weight my own eyeball test heavily at all in measuring long term player value. I'm not a scout.
What odds would you place on him putting up Jamaal Charles numbers moving forward? Discussing 1/100 (and actually the odds are far worse than that) longshots is a pie in the sky pipe dream. It's far more useful to look at a reasonable mean and proceed from there. After all, Zac Stacy MIGHT be the next Arian Foster. And Juron Criner MIGHT be the next Calvin Johnson. And so on.
I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.
If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.
Fair enough. So, at what point is it okay to begin talking about what a guy is capable of and try projecting future value?
They're not change of pace touches anymore when you're getting on the field in the first quarter and are on the field for ~50% of offensive snaps in the entire game.
CdL has no use for what's happening on the field. He's not a scout. He has mountains of data points that tell him you're being absurd.
It's obviously OK to talk about it right now. But in terms of expecting more than a part time role moving forward I'll need to see it first. Ellington's FF points-per-touch are unsustainable right now -- he IS going to regress as the season goes on, much less over the course of his career. If the touches don't increase, he's going to disappoint. He profiles like a 3rd down guy physically and based on his draft slot, so that's what I'm counting on until I see otherwise. In the meantime, if someone falls in love and is willing to pay for the unlikely high end upside, I'll sell. And be happy with getting that return from a rookie 3rd, 90% of which are total junk.
