Food for thought.
http://www.cleveland.com/sports/plaindeale...6370.xml&coll=2
Browns fans should be pleased to finally have a Cleveland football executive who doesn't spin or sugarcoat his professional observations.
On two occasions in this draft season, General Manager Phil Savage has offered the most constructive criticisms of any NFL executive on two of the draft's marquee names - Reggie Bush and Vince Young.
At the NFL Combine in February, Savage suggested that the diminutive Bush - the likely No. 1 pick - would not hold up as an every-down back.
"In my opinion, with Reggie Bush, more may be less and less could be more," Savage said. "Whichever team takes Reggie at the top of the draft, if they utilize him in the right way, he can still be a Heisman Trophy winner at the pro level, even if he's only touching the ball 10 or 15 times a game.
"I think when you get in a situation at his size, 200 pounds or so, when you're carrying it 20 or 25 times a game for 16 games, I think that's almost an impossibility for somebody to do that the way the game is played right now."
It's the prevailing opinion about Bush, but nobody else has expressed it.
As for Young, while skeptics have pointed to the Texas quarterback's unorthodox throwing delivery as a negative, Savage articulated the more relevant issue.
"I think the question on him, at least in my mind, is the fact he's operated in a shotgun offense with pretty vanilla reads and if those reads weren't there, he could take off and run with it," Savage said.
"You can do that in the NFL to a degree, but there does seem to be a little more structure in the league than in the college game. And every college team right now has some form of the shotgun spread offense, but every NFL team doesn't necessarily do that.
"I think you would have to very much adjust your system, and I think if he came on your team you'd almost have to have two different offenses."
Think about it. You're looking at 10-15 touches per game so count on a solid 13.
5 receptions, 8 totes.
Hell give him 10 yards per reception and 5.5 yards a pop. Then say he gets a rushing TD every fourth game, i.e., every 16 carries with equals out far greater than an A-Typical feature back getting 20-25 touches per game, and then say he scores at a Pro Bowl WR level of 8-10 TDs so give him 9 for the year.
His projected totals factoring in no learning curve or injuries.
8 carries * 16 games = 128 carries
128 carries * 5.5 yards per carry = 704 rushing yards
5 receptions * 16 games = 80 receptions
80 receptions * 10 yards per catch = 800
1,664 total yards
9 recieving TDs + 4 rushing TDs = 13 TDs
1,664 combined yards and 13 TDs
- IF he has no learing curve,
- IF he never gets injured
- IF he fufills the MINIMAL overhyped expectations
Realisitic expetations?
He'll face the same exact learning curve that every rookie RB faces in that he'll have to learn blitz pickups and it will take him to about mid season before he's fully up to speed.
Probably hit the rookie wall if not get a minor injury of some sort that would impact his abilty in some manner but I won't predict a game missing injury.
He'll break some long TDs but I think it would be extremely liberal to say he's going to log in more than a dozen. Also the average per carry is absurd and since he won't be up to speed in the passing game their is no way in hell he'll end up with 80 receptions by season's end.