I don't see newer cards holding value long term because there are too many of them graded so high. That will drive down the price long term.
This is true. It's funny how the cards everyone took such great care of in the 80s are almost worthless now but the stuff we didn't like toys, video games and even Garbage Pail Kids are worth a pretty penny in great condition. Essentially the same theory. Only thing these modern cards have going for them is they have their production numbers in check for the chaser cards.
Yep. This. Collectability (i.e. price appreciation) only works when the supply < demand.
- The pre-1980's stuff is somewhat scarce...at least compared to junk wax and modern commons. There is intrinsic value in even ungraded or beat up cards. The supply and demand is probably slightly skewed to the demand slide, but it's sensitive to player, grade and set. I think vintage stuff will continue a modest appreciation over time, with faster appreciation to really high end cards of high end players.
- In the '80's, junk was was massive supply >>> demand. Nothing was scarce. Enter grading companies, who via the assignment of numerical grades, managed to cut the population of Greg Jefferies rookies into segments, where there were maybe 5% - 10% 10's. So only 10's are scarce and have high $$$ I see this market as stable at the high grades personally.
- The modern stuff relies on limited print run inserts and variants (i.e. 1/1's). In my opinion, grading really doesn't serve as much of a purpose here, but people use it anyway. There's no real value in grading a 1/1 numerically. You either want it or you don't. But people grade them anyway, and they value accordingly. It's 10 or bust. To me, the modern market is in line for a major crash. 1/1's are priced as if they are the ONLY card...in reality, there are 1/1's for 15 different sets, one auto, one patch, one just 1/1...so little is truly unique. Also - I don't know who would pay crazy prices for a guy who might be out of the league in a year or two. As someone said earlier, it's because it's liquid now, and young kids are in and out so fast that they don't care if a guy is set for a long career - it's about whether he's good right now.
To me, the best investments are reliant on
extreme scarcity and attractiveness. Vintage HOF players at grades high enough to be one of the 10 or 20 best of that card. Junk wax 10's of HOF players (nothing - I mean NOTHING outside of a 10 will ever be worth massive amounts here excluding errors and oddities like STAR basketball). Modern stuff - where to start...if I was buying and holding, I wouldn't buy anything except true, guaranteed HOF rookies in rare variants...but truthfully I don't see even those appreciating over the long term.
I'm currently buying really high value vintage for the long-term as an alternative investment...I'm up ~20% on the year...now admittedly I'd take a hit to that value when I try and sell, but I'd still be up some. It's a lot more fun to browse my collection here vs. my stock portfolio...