Other guys ranked around Lacy outside of the big 3: Forte, Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Dougie, Gio.
Lacy's receptions should go up; his carries should go up (thinking 300+); with defenses fearing Rodgers arm and opening bigger lanes, his ypc should go up; with a better, more productive offense, his TD's could go up (12-15 total seems realistic).
Point is, I could definitely see situations where Lacy is #1 Fantasy RB by the end of the year. I can't say that about any of the guys listed above.
Actually, i think the point is i could pencil any of those other guys in for #1 numbers and they'd finish #1.
So you are saying that you could see any one of Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Martin or Gio finishing as the RB1 this year? And more so than Lacy?
Also, all you can do is pencil numbers in. 300 carries is not really an increase from last year (averaged 20 per game over 14 games last year, which would put him into 320+ territory), nor is 12+ TDs-he had 11 last year. Do you disagree that having a healthy Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson should push the defenses back a little, giving him more running room? Do you disagree that these pieces that were missing for most of last year will have a positive impact on the offense and should put Lacy in more chances to score?
I agree that Mike McCarthy has a 14 year history of throwing the ball near the goal line and has had only one running back crack more than 11 total TDs in a single season during that time, Deuce McCallister with 16 TDs in 2002. Deuce is also the only back to crack 2,000 total yards in a McCarthy offense (2003).
I think Eddie can achieve maybe 1,800 yards and maybe 15 TDs because of the reasons you state, but he is working against a lot of history on all fronts. And FTR I have him as RB#4 on my board, a lot of that also to do with the fact that I think he has a higher floor than many RBs.
Yes, if he stays healthy, his floor is high. He can't hardly avoid a 100/10 season if he tried.
IMO, there's a lot oversaid and thought about how McCarthy throws and hasn't run a lot in GB,etc. My opinion is the way you get to have a long coaching career in the NFL is by recognizing AND using your strengths. In Green Bay, it has been the passing, combined with a very pedestrian running game. When he DID have a great runner, he used him. Simple as that. We all know he's too smart to not restrain Rodgers. But he is smart enough to know he can lean on a good, capable runner and maybe preserve his star QB (throwing at the goal line can take a toll on a QB, especially if they bootleg to buy time).
Much like how things set up for a perfect storm for Charles and Shady last year, it looks like this for Lacy. How on Earth do you even begin to put adequate defenders in the box with Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and a host of other capable players? IF (I know it might not happen) Finley returns, wow...You can't possibly defend the interior middle of that field and you're going to have a stampeding bull coming right down at you.