Concept Coop
Footballguy
True. They're still 3 times as likely to hit, and they're more productive when they do. We'll see.Hate to tell you this, but 2nd round RB's miss more than they hit, so the rule also pertains to that round.
True. They're still 3 times as likely to hit, and they're more productive when they do. We'll see.Hate to tell you this, but 2nd round RB's miss more than they hit, so the rule also pertains to that round.
Even better. Apple to apples, except of course these oranges are WR's and not RB's but you get the idea.Chris Givens was taken in the 4th. Early 4th.
3 times as likely to hit based on what numbers?True. They're still 3 times as likely to hit, and they're more productive when they do. We'll see.Hate to tell you this, but 2nd round RB's miss more than they hit, so the rule also pertains to that round.
Based on a list of 4th round RBs drafted in that last 10 years provided by EBF and others. The 4 names that hit were D.Davis, Barber, Sproles and Jacobs. I can name 4x 2nd round picks who did more more than any of these 4, fantasy wise, off the top of my head: MJD, Rice, McCoy, Forte.3 times as likely to hit based on what numbers?True. They're still 3 times as likely to hit, and they're more productive when they do. We'll see.Hate to tell you this, but 2nd round RB's miss more than they hit, so the rule also pertains to that round.
More productive when they do based on what numbers?
Re: Lacy's (and Bush's) line - that logic would have caused you to pass on Trent Richardson, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, WIllis McGahee, etc. The best players usually go to the best schools, which have a weekly advantage over the teams they play against. But, on the flip side, you also play the LSU's and FLA's rather than Utahs and Washingtons.Even better. Apple to apples, except of course these oranges are WR's and not RB's but you get the idea.Chris Givens was taken in the 4th. Early 4th.
The point being, just because a guy was drafted higher, doesn't mean he will out play the guy drafted later.
I made the argument when Reggie Bush was drafted that he would be a bust since he never had to fight for yards through a tiny hole between two olinemen tangled up with two defensive linemen. I also asked what would happen when he took a hit as it seemed like he didn't take many in college. For the most part he confirmed my predictions by not running very well and spending a lot of time on the trainers table.
Lacy can definitely give and take a hit. But can he make something out of nothing when a hole closes or have the patience to pause because the hole isn't there but will be there if he can hit it a half a second later than he was supposed to. Sure he played in the SEC, but that line dominated the conference and gave him gaping holes. He won't have that in the NFL. Could he succeed despite not having to do that in college? Sure. But if he falters, and Franklin doesn't the starter might be a 4th rounder.
RB is the position that is easiest for teams to scout. It's still an imperfect science even at RB but really good backs rarely last until the 4th. The 3rd isn't too good either, especially after about pick 80 (I'm looking at you, Knile Davis).Based on a list of 4th round RBs drafted in that last 10 years provided by EBF and others. The 4 names that hit were D.Davis, Barber, Sproles and Jacobs. I can name 4x 2nd round picks who did more more than any of these 4, fantasy wise, off the top of my head: MJD, Rice, McCoy, Forte.3 times as likely to hit based on what numbers?True. They're still 3 times as likely to hit, and they're more productive when they do. We'll see.Hate to tell you this, but 2nd round RB's miss more than they hit, so the rule also pertains to that round.
More productive when they do based on what numbers?
Whoop ###.I hope Franklin has a long TD in preseason so I can get Lacy in redrafts in like round 10.
Seems like some have been assuming that these backs are two actors auditioning for the same lead part in the play, but I don't think it's set in stone that GB will ride just one back... Lacy should "beat out" Franklin at some parts of an RBs job, and Franklin should "beat out" Lacy at others. McCarthy isn't dense or stubborn, he'll see what he has and leave neither back on the bench for long stretches of games..."Two different types of backs," McCarthy said. "Obviously Lacy is a bigger back. Frankly, I thought Franklin handled the ball on the punt and the kickoff, too. I was excited about that, too, so he seems very natural. But once again, they're young players, they're drafted players. We look for them to definitely help us and contribute." [cut]
There's no clear front-runner, no set idea how all of these running backs will be used.
People keep saying this, but its not really true. We'd have to go all the way back to the 2012 draft to see 3 RBs drafted in Round 1 - with one of them as a result of a team trading into the first round to get him.Historical numbers on RB by round is going to start going out the window (and much of it already is) given the nature of the league and the lack of emphasis on that position now and going forward.
And another of them being the 3rd overall pick, and they gave up quite a bit to move up 1 spot for him.People keep saying this, but its not really true. We'd have to go all the way back to the 2012 draft to see 3 RBs drafted in Round 1 - with one of them as a result of a team trading into the first round to get him.Historical numbers on RB by round is going to start going out the window (and much of it already is) given the nature of the league and the lack of emphasis on that position now and going forward.
It will just keep going down though.People keep saying this, but its not really true. We'd have to go all the way back to the 2012 draft to see 3 RBs drafted in Round 1 - with one of them as a result of a team trading into the first round to get him.Historical numbers on RB by round is going to start going out the window (and much of it already is) given the nature of the league and the lack of emphasis on that position now and going forward.
Maybe, but that's just speculation and not the reality. There was only one QB taken in Round 1 this season and it was mid-round? Are QBs devalued?It will just keep going down though.People keep saying this, but its not really true. We'd have to go all the way back to the 2012 draft to see 3 RBs drafted in Round 1 - with one of them as a result of a team trading into the first round to get him.Historical numbers on RB by round is going to start going out the window (and much of it already is) given the nature of the league and the lack of emphasis on that position now and going forward.
Seems to me like you're making a lot of conclusions over a bit of coach speak.Sigmund Bloom said:Packers expect spirited competition at RB
Seems like some have been assuming that these backs are two actors auditioning for the same lead part in the play, but I don't think it's set in stone that GB will ride just one back... Lacy should "beat out" Franklin at some parts of an RBs job, and Franklin should "beat out" Lacy at others. McCarthy isn't dense or stubborn, he'll see what he has and leave neither back on the bench for long stretches of games..."Two different types of backs," McCarthy said. "Obviously Lacy is a bigger back. Frankly, I thought Franklin handled the ball on the punt and the kickoff, too. I was excited about that, too, so he seems very natural. But once again, they're young players, they're drafted players. We look for them to definitely help us and contribute." [cut]
There's no clear front-runner, no set idea how all of these running backs will be used.
Yes...its speculation and opinion.Dr. Octopus said:Maybe, but that's just speculation and not the reality. There was only one QB taken in Round 1 this season and it was mid-round? Are QBs devalued?sho nuff said:It will just keep going down though.Dr. Octopus said:People keep saying this, but its not really true. We'd have to go all the way back to the 2012 draft to see 3 RBs drafted in Round 1 - with one of them as a result of a team trading into the first round to get him.Historical numbers on RB by round is going to start going out the window (and much of it already is) given the nature of the league and the lack of emphasis on that position now and going forward.
This season the only back that was likely valued as a 1st rounder was Lacy and his injury situation and poor workout scared teams off a bit.
ETA: and as far as short shelf lives go - not sure why that would matter. Teams can sign a fist round pick to a five year contract at a reasonable rate now. Seems perfect for the RB position, instead of signing a FA for bigger money.
I guess it depends what the Packers want on 3rd down. I am guessing they are going to want the guy that is adept at blocking first and foremost. I really don't know who the best pass blocking guy is between Lacy or Franklin at this stage, but neither of these guys may be the 3rd down rb if they can't block.IF Lacy's fused toe isn't a problem and he is able to play with burst, he's clearly the better back on 1st and 2nd down. But Franklin is a better receiver and more elusive, which makes him a legit threat to steal passing downs.
In terms of comps, I think the prior mention of a young Ced Benson is pretty good for Lacy, while I would compare Franklin to a young Tiki Barber, fumbles and all.
The biggest point of all is that this offense has been SORELY lacking an effective running back for years. Really, since the Ryan Grant days. So if one of these guys steps up, he could be stepping into a fantasy goldmine. And I believe Franklin has the tools to do it (but in a different way) should Lacy falter or injure.
The Denver Post reports "at least three teams" believed No. 61 overall pick RB Eddie Lacy could have issues with his surgically-repaired toe "within two or three seasons."
Both Lacy and Alabama's team doctor have insisted there's no reason to worry about his toe, but many teams believe differently. Where there's this much injury smoke, there's usually fire, so it's possible Lacy isn't in store for a particularly long NFL career. As for 2012, however, Lacy is in good position to claim early-down and goal-line duties. He's on the RB2 radar.
Source: Denver Post
And yet he'll hang around and destroy any potential value for Franklin. An awful situation IMO and one to avoid (at least in dynasty).Rotoworld:
The Denver Post reports "at least three teams" believed No. 61 overall pick RB Eddie Lacy could have issues with his surgically-repaired toe "within two or three seasons."
Both Lacy and Alabama's team doctor have insisted there's no reason to worry about his toe, but many teams believe differently. Where there's this much injury smoke, there's usually fire, so it's possible Lacy isn't in store for a particularly long NFL career. As for 2012, however, Lacy is in good position to claim early-down and goal-line duties. He's on the RB2 radar.
Source: Denver Post
Good point. The Packers have enough receiving options that their primary concern is the RB blocking on 3rd down. Since Rodgers took over in 2008 Brandon Jackson is the only RB to get more than 10 targets on 3rd down and his highest was 15 in 2009.I guess it depends what the Packers want on 3rd down. I am guessing they are going to want the guy that is adept at blocking first and foremost. I really don't know who the best pass blocking guy is between Lacy or Franklin at this stage, but neither of these guys may be the 3rd down rb if they can't block.IF Lacy's fused toe isn't a problem and he is able to play with burst, he's clearly the better back on 1st and 2nd down. But Franklin is a better receiver and more elusive, which makes him a legit threat to steal passing downs.
In terms of comps, I think the prior mention of a young Ced Benson is pretty good for Lacy, while I would compare Franklin to a young Tiki Barber, fumbles and all.
The biggest point of all is that this offense has been SORELY lacking an effective running back for years. Really, since the Ryan Grant days. So if one of these guys steps up, he could be stepping into a fantasy goldmine. And I believe Franklin has the tools to do it (but in a different way) should Lacy falter or injure.
I see Lacy as a Lynch clone anyway. A guy that will have plenty of touches on first and second downs, and although capable enough at catching will only catch about 25 balls a year as the starter. I am not saying Lacy this year will have 315 rush attempts. But it would not shock me if he had 280 carries. I know many say the Packers are not a running team and they won't run that much. Well the best offenses in the NFL have balance. Even the teams that love to pass give their starting rb's high volumes of touches. The Patriots gave Ridely 290 carries last year. The Falcons gave Turner 225 carries last year and 301 the year before. McGahee was on pace for 284 carries in Denver offense until he got hurt.
Ryan Grant had 312 carries in 2008 with Rogers as the QB. And you can't even argue that the Packers throw more now than they did then. Rogers had 536 passes in 2008. In 2009 he had 541 attempts, in 2010 474 attempts, in 2011 501 attempts and last year he had 553 attempts. There is a huge opportunity for Lacy to carve out a big role going forward.
By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com
May 30, 2013 9:23 pm ET
During the next several weeks, NFLDraftScout.com will review the more intriguing picks made during the 2013 NFL Draft in a series called "Finding the Fits." The goal of the series is to identify one relatively unheralded player per team who appears to be a good schematic fit and, therefore, more likely to be a surprise contributor early in his pro career.
Green Bay Packers' Best Fit: RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama, 2nd Round, No. 61 overall
Boasting two of the league's most dominant players in quarterback Aaron Rodgers and pass rusher Clay Matthews, the Green Bay Packers have qualified for the playoffs each of the past four years.
Should second-round selection Eddie Lacy provide the Packers with the same powerful running that helped Alabama to a second consecutive BCS crown last season, Green Bay looks poised to extend their postseason run, quite possibly qualifying for their second trip to the Super Bowl in the last four years.
Few teams were more reliant on their quarterback than the Packers. Consider that while Green Bay ranked fifth in the NFL a season ago with 433 points scored, of that total, only nine touchdowns came via the running game. No team that made the playoffs scored fewer touchdowns on the ground than the Packers in 2012.
Durability questions pushed Lacy down the board, but there is no doubting his talent. The 5-foot-11, 230-pound back set the all-time SEC record in averaging 6.77 yards per carry over his career by combining brute power with surprising lateral agility and balance. He possesses soft hands as a receiver and is stout in pass protection as well. Lacy's all-around game has often earned him comparisons to long-time St. Louis Rams' standout (and new Atlanta Falcon) Steven Jackson.
The Packers haven't had a running back rush for more than 100 yards in 43 consecutive games. With defenses focusing on slowing down Green Bay's passing, expect that streak to end quickly in 2013 and for Lacy to emerge as the Packers' primary red-zone running threat. In an offense this dynamic, that could mean double-digit touchdowns and a strong run at offensive rookie of the year honors.
The Packers entered the 2013 draft desperate for more balance on offense and hedged their bet on Lacy's durability by trading up to nab former UCLA standout Johnathan Franklin in the fourth round. Franklin is quicker than Lacy and showed much greater toughness in an impressive senior season. Lacy is the favorite to win the starting job but even if he's a star, Franklin will get his touches. Franklin, affectionately nicknamed "Jetski" with the Bruins, could leave the former Crimson Tide back in his wake should the same injury problems that pushed him down the board surface in the NFL.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/56859/fantasy-hint-packers-rookie-rbsFantasy hint: Packers rookie RBs
By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Much of this ESPN Fantasy Roundtable (video clip within the link) on rookie running backs focuses on how -- and with what frequency -- the Green Bay Packers will use tailback Eddie Lacy, especially near the goal line.
The general consensus: The Packers have too many skill players for any one running back to produce a dominating season from a fantasy perspective. They also have a history of leaning on the passing game, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers on foot, near the goal line. The question is if the arrival of Lacy, or even fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin, will change that approach.
Here is the information that fantasy players must consider when it comes to this issue. First, the Packers managed a total of 32 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons, nine of which came from Rodgers, ranking them No. 20 in the NFL over that span. In goal-to-goal situations in the same time period, the Packers have attempted 76 running plays -- No. 23 overall in the league -- and scored 22 touchdowns. Of that total, Rodgers has 20 of the attempts and five of the touchdowns.
In essence, that means over a period of extended success the Packers have relied less on their running game near the goal line than about two-thirds of the NFL. The hope of many is that the arrival of Lacy will balance that figure, rather than be burdened by it, but it's important to know the baseline before making any projections.
(Statistics courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.)
Packers rookie Eddie Lacy currently weighs 238 pounds, up seven pounds from his Combine weigh-in.
Lacy is reportedly looking good in pre-training camp practices, but the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suspects the Packers want Lacy to play his rookie season at a lighter weight. RBs coach Alex Van Pelt doesn't seem worried about Lacy's fitness, saying he "showed his ability at that weight to have great feet and speed." Van Pelt went so far as to compare Lacy to Steven Jackson.
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Once expected to be the first running back off the board, Eddie Lacy slid to the Green Bay Packers late in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft due to concerns about his surgically repaired toe.
As it turns out, the toe wasn't the only red flag on Lacy. The running back acknowledged to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that many scouts questioned his love for football, which Lacy calls "the childhood game."
Asked if football has ever brought him true joy, Lacy replied, "It has its moments, I guess you could say. It was a lot better for me (in Gretna, La.), though. Football is not what it was to me in high school now."
Lacy admits to feeling depressed "here and there" ever since Hurricane Katrina drove his family from their home in 2005. The incident clearly still haunts him, perhaps to the point that it diminishes his affinity for football.
That lack of passion will become an issue if Lacy arrives to training camp out of shape. After being knocked for poor work habits leading up to the draft, he packed on nearly 10 pounds by spring practices. Lacy might need a wake-up call to beat out four other running backs for the Packers' starting job this summer.
Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.
I don't really worry about this as a Lacy owner. I think that sort of gameplan flipping goes on in Foxboro but not elsewhere.Could be a case where they focus on Lacy one week, Franklin the next in their gameplans.
haters gonna hate.Re: Lacy's (and Bush's) line - that logic would have caused you to pass on Trent Richardson, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, WIllis McGahee, etc. The best players usually go to the best schools, which have a weekly advantage over the teams they play against. But, on the flip side, you also play the LSU's and FLA's rather than Utahs and Washingtons.
You think Lacy is the favorite too, as you've said. I just think the odds are higher than you do. NBD. We'll see.
As kick/punt returner, he sure will.Franklin is gonna win the starting job... I can see it coming
I guess I already said that on this page.
No, as a running back.As kick/punt returner, he sure will.Franklin is gonna win the starting job... I can see it coming
I did not draft either of these RBs but was able to acquire both in various trades/rookie swaps this off season, and I fully agree with much of your analysis. The Vareen/Ridley call was a great one and I was going with more of a Steven Jackson/Jaquizz Rodger type situation but either way I think both of these guys are talented enough to be an extremely valuable handcuff to one another. I was reading an interesting report from camp saying how the Packers were working on a blocking scheme that allowed them to protect Rodgers' blindside better which also favors a RB that can effectively run to the left- something that Lacy was very comfortable doing in college. Owning Franklin in addition to EL allows a dynasty owner to benefit from the blatant upside that Lacy offers, with a top-notch insurance policy in case that fused toe decides to become a problem. One thing I am worried about is Lacy's conditioning- which hopefully should be in top shape by August, or else I can see Franklin taking enough snaps to render EL a mediocre RB-2 at best.I drafted Lacy and Franklin in a dynasty startup. A couple years ago the Patriots took Vereen and Ridley in similar fashion and I drafted both again in - paid off handsomly. The discussions back then remind me of the discussions now about how two backs kill each other's value.
I know that it is way too early to hit the panic button if you picked Lacy with the 1.01 pick, but this position battle will be very interesting to watch it play out.According to the Green Bay Press-Gazette, it was "hard not to notice" rookie RB Johnathan Franklin in the Packers' first padded practice.
Per reporter Pete Dougherty, Franklin notched two "explosive runs," and out-shined fellow rookie Eddie Lacy. Franklin also made a big play on special teams. How the Pack delineate touches between Franklin and Lacy in the preseason will be of keen interest.
Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette
Lacy looks like he ate Mike Tolbert. I can easily see Franklin winning the starting gigI borrowed this from Penguin in the Training Camp thread:
Franklin vs. Lacy
https://twitter.com/...7241729/photo/1
That doesn't look good at all for Lacy owners. The dude is a real porker. One would think he loses weight.Lacy looks like he ate Mike Tolbert. I can easily see Franklin winning the starting gigI borrowed this from Penguin in the Training Camp thread:
Franklin vs. Lacy
https://twitter.com/...7241729/photo/1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX1ggVBXG5wThat doesn't look good at all for Lacy owners. The dude is a real porker. One would think he loses weight.Lacy looks like he ate Mike Tolbert. I can easily see Franklin winning the starting gigI borrowed this from Penguin in the Training Camp thread:
Franklin vs. Lacy
https://twitter.com/...7241729/photo/1
Can we get a translator, or perhaps a comma or a period?guys the guy who wears number 12 whcih is three times better than number 4 for all those playing along at home likes the guy named dujuan harris who also looked pretty darned good last year like a bowling ball and quick and hey for all those playing the lacy versus franklin game you might want to not count your eggs before they are chickens just yet because it might be neither is the answer to your riddle take that to the bank brohans