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Ask a guy who gambles on stuff about gambling on stuff (1 Viewer)

pecorino said:
The PA Cash 5 payout for the jackpot tomorrow (probability of winning is about 1/960,000) is projected to be $1,600,000. Given a tax rate of about 36%, plus all of the lesser prizes, the EV for a $1 ticket is above $1.20, given that there is just one winner. A split pot would bring the EV under a buck (not good) but not by a lot, and also it would be a life-changing payday nonetheless. I plan to buy $20 worth of tickets (I never play the lottery except in situations like this) and I am debating buying a lot more, like maybe hundreds of tickets. What’s your take?
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Thats interesting. Are there secondary prizes, or is it winner take all?

 
pecorino said:
The PA Cash 5 payout for the jackpot tomorrow (probability of winning is about 1/960,000) is projected to be $1,600,000. Given a tax rate of about 36%, plus all of the lesser prizes, the EV for a $1 ticket is above $1.20, given that there is just one winner. A split pot would bring the EV under a buck (not good) but not by a lot, and also it would be a life-changing payday nonetheless. I plan to buy $20 worth of tickets (I never play the lottery except in situations like this) and I am debating buying a lot more, like maybe hundreds of tickets. What’s your take?
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If you're confident that your math is correct you should definitely buy more than $20 in tickets.  Everybody's risk tolerance is different but if you're up for it I'd go for the hundreds of tickets option.

 
lumpy19 said:
If you're confident that your math is correct you should definitely buy more than $20 in tickets.  Everybody's risk tolerance is different but if you're up for it I'd go for the hundreds of tickets option.
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I’m a math guy so I’d feel 100% about my calculations but for the sake of this post, I rounded my numbers pretty grossly. In real life, I usually ramp up my ticket buying once the jackpot hits $1,000,00 (I exclusively buy Cash 5 tickets, not Powerball or others, and Cash 5 jackpot is about one in a million). I’ll buy a couple bucks of tix at $1 million jackpot, maybe 10 tickets at 1.2 million, and so on. But now that it’s 1.6, seems clear the odds are in the player’s favor so the right bet is to dump as much cash as one can afford into it, in theory.

 
Walking Boot said:
There's a good article about consortiums that target lotteries for a profit out there somewhere. I forget the exact details... some state's lotteries guarantee a payout every month or so... and if no one hits 6/6 numbers in the last draw of the month, the big jackpot goes to anyone who gets 5/6 numbers. These consortiums are groups of investors that pool their money into a LLC that buys up enough tickets to cover all possible combinations of 5 numbers (each selection of six digits covers many of possible combinations of just 5, and they carefully select the numbers across all their tickets so that there are no overlaps). I think it costs maybe $100k or $200k to buy out a full lottery and make sure you get at least a 5/6, with an additional small chance the sixth number on that ticket wins them the big prize all to themselves.

Pretty good deal, but there are enough of them operating that there's a barrier to entry should anyone else try to start one up... they'd split into each other's prize pool and eventually kill the margin.
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I think you posted this one awhile back, or somebody did

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/this-couple-found-a-math-error-in-lottery-made-27-million-playing-over-over-for-55-weeks.html

 
mquinnjr said:
doowain said:
October 6, 2003, Colts vs. Bucs.  Colts down 35-14 with 5:09 to go.  Bucs have the ball after a  Peyton INT.
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What was the line?
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Bucs -4.5

Had $500 on the Colts money line. $1400 payoff if memory serves. Had the money line in a parlay as well but can't remember the details.

The rollercoaster of emotions that night was almost too much. 

I believe the Bucs got called for jumping over the center on a Vanderjagt missed field goal in overtime. He got a second chance and hit it for the win. 

 
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Dan Lambskin said:
Probably worried it would cut into the Lottery cash cow
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There's no way in he11 the collective handles of sports and lottery would be less than lottery itself.  I'd guess between a 20-25% increase year one and settle around a 40% increase in year 3+ over generic lottery sales. Whole different clientale. Now tax revenue from sports wagering is minuscule, but that's not what we're talking about here.

 
I think there is another gambling thread but couldn't find it, so this one came up first when I searched.

For those out there doing NFL player props betting - what are the good sites for this?  Was hoping to sign up at a few places to shop for the best lines.  I'm not a big gambler but was thinking about getting in this way.  

 
Man the legalization of sports is going to make TV unwatchable for anyone who doesn’t play. 15 different experts with their takes on every line and prop. Garbage. Terrible. 

 
Binky The Doormat said:
I think there is another gambling thread but couldn't find it, so this one came up first when I searched.

For those out there doing NFL player props betting - what are the good sites for this?  Was hoping to sign up at a few places to shop for the best lines.  I'm not a big gambler but was thinking about getting in this way.  
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For placing bets or getting info on what to bet?

bovada, sportsbook.ag (not sure if they even take new customers) and 5 dimes all have pretty extensive prop menus

they all will usually vary slightly in juice

be prepared to get cut to $25 max or less if you win any money

@swirvenirvin or @lumpy19 might have some others they can recommend but I think the ones above are the most beatable IIRC

 
Judge Smails said:
Man the legalization of sports is going to make TV unwatchable for anyone who doesn’t play. 15 different experts with their takes on every line and prop. Garbage. Terrible. 
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I, too, support the legalization of these "sports."  They sound like a nice diversion from the day-to-day. 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
For placing bets or getting info on what to bet?

bovada, sportsbook.ag (not sure if they even take new customers) and 5 dimes all have pretty extensive prop menus

they all will usually vary slightly in juice

be prepared to get cut to $25 max or less if you win any money

@swirvenirvin or @lumpy19 might have some others they can recommend but I think the ones above are the most beatable IIRC
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I'll move my question over the ***OFFICIAL***FFA Wagering Thread.  

 
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